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[DrHades]

http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201201/18/game-20120118-070217-34a32030.html

Okay so the game ended on turn 13, because my opponent counted wrongly, BUT if he didn't, he would have trash his Silver, buy Gold...then I would trash Gold, buy Gold...then he would trash Gold buy Gold...but what would happen when all the Golds will be out? I would probably lose no matter what then...

Any interesting ideas about plans here?

[ycz6]

The analysis here is surprisingly complicated. tl;dr Dr Hades is in a winning position, but can screw up.

At the beginning of Hampuse's last turn, there are 26 Golds remaining and you two are tied.

Hampuse 12: Trash Silver -> Buy Gold -> Ham up by 2

Line 1
Dr Hades 13: Trash Silver -> Buy Gold -> Tie

I claim that under optimal play, it is impossible for Dr Hades to have better than a 50% chance of winning in this situation, for this reason: It's a tie game and Hampuse's turn. How well can he do, though?

Ham 13: Buy Province -> Ham up by 6

If Hampuse now draws all of his money into his next hand, of which there is a 50% chance, he wins, since Dr Hades cannot buy the last Province without losing on turns. Otherwise,

Dr Hades 14: Trash Gold -> Buy Gold -> Ham up by 2
Ham 14: Trash Gold -> Buy Silver -> Ham up by 6 (again gives Hampuse a 50% chance to win, with 7 total money in his deck)
Dr Hades 15: Trash Gold -> Buy Gold -> Ham up by 2

If Hampuse draws all his money, he can Trash Province -> Buy Province for the win. Otherwise, his hand is (Gold/Silver-Silver-Bishop-Province-Province), and the only way he can survive another turn is by Bishopping his last Gold (otherwise Dr Hades can buy the last Province and win).

If he does this, though, then Dr Hades can just stall a few turns with Trash Gold -> Buy Gold, and eventually will get within 6 points and can buy the last Province for the win.

So Hampuse's Turn 13 Province buy gives Hampuse a 75% chance to win the game.

Line 2

Dr Hades 13: Trash Gold -> Buy Gold -> Dr up by 2

My analysis for this line was originally much longer than this, then I realized it's obvious: Dr Hades is in a winning position. He is up in points, and since there are an even number of Provinces, Golds, Duchies, and Estates left, as well as more than 10 other $5-cost cards, he can just mirror whatever Hampuse does without risking Hampuse ending the game on his turn. So Dr Hades has actually won as of Turn 12.

[Anon79]

He is up in points, and since there are an even number of Provinces, Golds, Duchies, and Estates left, as well as more than 10 other $5-cost cards, he can just mirror whatever Hampuse does without risking Hampuse ending the game on his turn. So Dr Hades has actually won as of Turn 12.

So if Ham moves to a 6-card deck, you move to a six-card deck too, and mirror his shuffling?

[ycz6]

Whoops, good point. For some reason I realized why that didn't work in Line 1 but not in Line 2.

The 6th card can't be a Province, obviously, since Dr Hades could just end the game then. If Hambuse buys a Duchy on Turn 13, that puts him up by 1, but likely hurts his deck enough that Dr Hades can win a large majority of the time by stalling. If Hambuse buys anything else before the Golds are out Dr Hades can go up by more than 6 with a Province buy.

Basically it turns out I actually have no clue what's going on. Anyone else feel like continuing the analysis? Mandarin might make things interesting, or not...

[WanderingWinder]

Pretty sure there's nothing to do really on this board. You get behind with a blow-by-blow golden deck where you're matching, you either need to be able to a) hit province like every turn WITHOUT trashing (in which case you'll only make up a little ground anyway), b) find some way of exploiting extra buys/gains to gain points faster than your opponent, c) have some way of disrupting them, probably by attacking (but potentially something like masquerade could also work). As you can't do any of these things on this board... you're basically toast if you get behind.