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[ashersky]

I want to say this (again) regarding gkrieg13 and I pulling of the scum mason fakeclaim -- everyone keeps saying "oh pathetically stupid town" and never says "incredibly ballsy and impressive scum" when referring to it

We didn't pull it off just because players ignored probability numbers.  We gave them reasons to believe in the improbable through our words -- that which makes up mafia games.

Yes, the reads were wrong.  I think we (especially gkrieg13, who claimed first and on D1) deserve credit for making them wrong.

[liopoil]

I didn't see that game, but it wiuld be very silly indeed not to lynch the masons at lylo in that case, and it would take ridiculously strong incorrect reads to override that. If the town did have that, good job scum, but my guess is that they just messed up.

scott_pilgrim, the thing is that there isn't a 97% chance of them being scum, even independent of reads. There's significant WIFOM and other complications involved. 97% of the time the role doesn't exist. Say 47/97 of those times, scum fakeclaims, and town always claim. Now there's a 47/50 chance they are lying, given they claimed, which is 94%. That 47 number came from nowhere though; it's usually lower, and hard to estimate. That's why the 97% figure is very misleading and usually entirely irrellevant to the game.

It's still very scummy to claim a role unlikely to be in the game, and in the case of masons, should usually be lynched in lylo because of it.

[liopoil]

I think I agree that people put too much faith in reads, but you can't go around assigning mathematical probabilities of being scum without some serious assumptions.

[Witherweaver]

Were you there for the asher++ game where scum claimed masons and won because town didn't do/trust probability?  There was like a 3% chance they were town, but people talked themselves into it because...I don't know why really.  I wasn't paying much attention to the game, but it was so painful to watch everyone ignore the overwhelming evidence.  Like at that point they're basically confirmed scum, but people don't care because it "feels" like they're town.

The evidence here was not the probability that that setup was rolled; the evidence was how they played.

The issue with peddling out setup arithmetic is that it's distracting from the actual game itself. 

[ashersky]

Sorry, I am way behind in everything.  Ash, I promise I will get an mvp and do that while historical record thing for this game.

Eventually

Any updates on this front?

[2.71828.....]

Yes. All the games I am in are complete. I will do this before another game starts

[iguanaiguana]

Yes. All the games I am in are complete. I will do this before another game starts

Not true bro, you are in bracket wars II.

[2.71828.....]

Going with my initial gut reaction:

MVP is silverspawn

I thought his play as a mason was very well done, even if it caused some controversy. The D1 scum lynch was obviously critical to town's success, but having all the ICs at the end of the game won it.

[silverspawn]

yaay!

thanks.