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nate_w

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End Game Strategy: A case study
« on: January 25, 2016, 09:15:28 am »
+19

Hi, all.  This is my first submission to the forums.  I wasn't sure whether this belonged more in articles or game reports, but articles felt right.  If you can help me with how to format this better, I would appreciate it.  Content suggestions are, of course, also welcome.  I can very easily go into more depth about each of these 3 topics if that is what you guys think I should do.  Was trying to keep it short.

I played a set last night in which, through a mixture of opponent's good play, my poor play, and the will of the shuffle gods, I found myself in completely losing positions. In all three cases, my opponent (a pretty decent player) botched the end game and lost.  I felt like a lot of people could use a little more time dedicated to closing out games. Without further ado:

End game issues: a case study.


Game 1: Noticing forced wins. http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160124/log.0.1453624889120.txt

On opponent's turn 13, opponent produces $20 with plenty of buys to three pile the 4 remaining Foragers and buy another Province, giving him a solid win. Instead he buys a Province and 2 Gold. The next turn I pile out the remaining Feoda to steal the win.

The moral: win when you can. The next turn the game may be over having slipped from your grasp. 

Always, and especially when piles are getting low, look for ways to empty 3 piles if you can end up with more points than your opponent.  Things you should consider: How many gains you will need to make this happen; how much money you will need to make this happen; special cards that can make piles empty super fast (stone mason comes to mind).

Game 2: Not allowing your opponent to pile out and steal a win. http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160124/log.0.1453626210474.txt

Opponent's Turn 16:  I'm feeling totally lost. Opponent has built a strong lead, crucially winning the lab split 6-4. He pauses for a while thinking about what to do with his $13.  I think to myself: "Please lower piles. Please lower piles!"  He lowers piles. I empty 3 piles and buy an estate to steal the win.

The moral: don't let games you have won slip away. Just like you should be looking for forced wins, you also need to look for what could go wrong that could allow your opponent to force a win.

When you are ahead, it is important to think about what the WORST thing that could happen on your opponent's turn.

Does buying a province allow them to MAYBE double province for the win? Maybe consider buying two duchies instead.  If you buy 2 more grand markets are they going to POSSIBLY be able to pile out and steal a win?

This is an especially important consideration when you are ahead, but he converse is also important when behind. When you are behind you might be thinking: how can I steal a win? What happens if they have a dud hand? What can I do to end the game with a win if everything goes right for me?

Game 3: You must be able to end the game somehow. http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160124/log.0.1453627096085.txt

I open with the idea of going Duchy/Duke; opponent opens by thinning down.  Somehow, I lose the Duchy split 5/3.  I switch gears and start rebuilding while acquiring points via Nobles. Opponent continues to trash and buy dukes and ends up stalling out hard.  He resigns.

The moral: it doesn't matter how big a lead you get; if you can't end the game in some way and opponent can catch up, then you are setting yourself up for a loss.

I'm not convinced he was lost here. I think he could build a little and hope noble brigands miss and try to three pile on Border Village/Duchy/Duke.  But the point stands. Getting a lead only does so much if the opponent can attack you (or you stall yourself out) while continuing to gain points themselves. This is one of the strengths of an engine.

Other examples where this can happen: you go for a money strategy and build a big lead only to be decimated by Pirate Ship, Thief, Saboteur, etc played multiple times by an engine player.  You start building and get completely buried by an Ambassador player and find yourself unable to get to 4 or 5 Provinces.  You get 5 provinces against a weak Goons engine, but stall out without their help buying Provinces as they accumulate pints.



In summation: you can outplay your opponent for most of the game, but if you misplay the end game, you will lose a lot of games you shouldn't.  Be diligent in looking for 3 pile forced wins, be wary of your opponent 3-pile stealing a win from under your nose, and make sure you have a plan to end the game. Then, when you outplay me the rest of the game, you get to go home with a W instead of an L.
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Limetime

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Re: End Game Strategy: A case study
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2016, 11:49:51 am »
+1

Click me
Game 4: You have to get into a position where you can win but your opponent cannot.
http://www.gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?http://dominion-game-logs.s3.amazonaws.com/game_logs/20160123/log.0.1453565999102.txt

I built faster than my opponent and I drew deck turn 8. I continued building by getting grand markets and festivals. I dud turn 13 which pushes me a little closer to my opponent in tempo. Turn 14 I make 2 fatal mistakes as described in the quoted post. Turn 15 I could have still gotten a win or a tie but two more mistakes prevent that. I have to play for a dud but it doesn't happen

The moral: It doesn't matter how big a lead you get; if you don't plan ahead into the endgame you will have troubles winning.

This point is true in many engines. Just watch some division A games and you will see people planning ahead who are much better than me.
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Dingan

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Re: End Game Strategy: A case study
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2016, 12:42:20 pm »
0

I agree planning ahead is key.  Every once in a while I'll notice, "Oh hey, I can win by buying those 2 Curses".  But being able to see this coming several turns in advance is even better.  And even better yet would be to predict how the game is going to evolve and end before you even buy your first card, and tailoring your strategy to that.  Of course, sometimes it is really hard to predict that, or impossible, or depends on what your opponent does, or largely depends on luck, or whatever.  And many times I'm wrong (I'm probably wrong more often than not).  But I think it's good practice to at least ask yourself on your first turn "How do I think this game will end?".
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dedicateddan

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Re: End Game Strategy: A case study
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2016, 02:24:52 pm »
0

I was going to write an article on endgame play, but it looks like Nate has done an excellent job with this one. I'll add a few points on building up:

Setting up the endgame:
-Additional buys/coins/gains on the final turns open up additional opportunities for forced wins and pile outs
-Big engines provide the most endgame control, particularly when alt-VP and attacks are involved
-Maximizing coins/buys in on an engine board often means trashing->drawing deck->growing exponentially
-Check if you can win. See how your opponent plans to win. Then look for a way to safety threaten a win next turn.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2016, 02:36:07 pm by dedicateddan »
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ubk

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Re: End Game Strategy: A case study
« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2016, 10:15:24 pm »
+1

  Here is a situation I sometimes see players make errors with. It falls in line
with having a plan to win.   

  Suppose a game gets down to one province left, no duchies left, and all 8 estates left. 
If you get 2 coins are are tied it would be very tempting to take the estate to get the lead.
But how does that help you win?  Having the lead is not the point, it is ending with the lead.
It is very likely that the game is going to be won by that last province being bought and your
single point from the estate buy does not help.
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Limetime

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Re: End Game Strategy: A case study
« Reply #5 on: February 12, 2016, 11:11:40 pm »
0

  Here is a situation I sometimes see players make errors with. It falls in line
with having a plan to win.   

  Suppose a game gets down to one province left, no duchies left, and all 8 estates left. 
If you get 2 coins are are tied it would be very tempting to take the estate to get the lead.
But how does that help you win?  Having the lead is not the point, it is ending with the lead.
It is very likely that the game is going to be won by that last province being bought and your
single point from the estate buy does not help.
If you are able too get a province before the game ends then sure build up too that. If the piles will run before that just go on a mad grab for points.
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eHalcyon

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Re: End Game Strategy: A case study
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2016, 04:27:21 am »
+2

  Here is a situation I sometimes see players make errors with. It falls in line
with having a plan to win.   

  Suppose a game gets down to one province left, no duchies left, and all 8 estates left. 
If you get 2 coins are are tied it would be very tempting to take the estate to get the lead.
But how does that help you win?  Having the lead is not the point, it is ending with the lead.
It is very likely that the game is going to be won by that last province being bought and your
single point from the estate buy does not help.
If you are able too get a province before the game ends then sure build up too that. If the piles will run before that just go on a mad grab for points.

Right, the most common situation is probably when the game could end on piles, in which case the single point can mean victory.  Buying that Estate may in itself be working towards that end game condition, since Estates are one of the easiest piles to empty quickly.  Another relevant situation is when you have the ability to mill Provinces (e.g. Salvager, Remodel).  Without that Estate, the game may end with the score tied, which is a loss if you are first player.  The Estate can make the difference.

Also, buying the Estate makes your Scouts more useful. ;)
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