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Author Topic: Math and lotto stuf  (Read 8715 times)

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GendoIkari

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Math and lotto stuf
« on: January 09, 2016, 04:56:44 pm »
0

Just read this in an article about the lotto:

Scott A. Norris, an assistant professor of mathematics at Southern Methodist University, said there's no trick to playing the lottery, but your tiny odds of winning are a bit better if you let the computer pick rather than choosing yourself. That's because when people use birthdates or other favorite figures, they generally choose numbers 31 or below. That ignores the fact that there are 69 numbered balls.

Um, this is completely wrong, isn't it? The odds of the numbers coming up "1, 2, 3, 4, 5" are exactly the same as the odds of the numbers coming up "4, 24, 43, 50, 55". Or whatever.
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Donald X.

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #1 on: January 09, 2016, 05:29:12 pm »
+7

Just read this in an article about the lotto:

Scott A. Norris, an assistant professor of mathematics at Southern Methodist University, said there's no trick to playing the lottery, but your tiny odds of winning are a bit better if you let the computer pick rather than choosing yourself. That's because when people use birthdates or other favorite figures, they generally choose numbers 31 or below. That ignores the fact that there are 69 numbered balls.

Um, this is completely wrong, isn't it? The odds of the numbers coming up "1, 2, 3, 4, 5" are exactly the same as the odds of the numbers coming up "4, 24, 43, 50, 55". Or whatever.
It could be a miscommunication between the dude and the article-writer. Your odds of winning are the same however you pick your numbers, if the specific system isn't biased in some way that would have to be explained. But you can in fact increase your expected earnings by picking numbers other people aren't picking, because the prize gets split. Which does not favor picking randomly, it favors specifically trying to pick those unpicked numbers. I will just tell you now, for 6/49 lotteries you want some mix of 10, 20, 29, 30, 32, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 48, 49.

It's not hard to get positive expectation; the tricky part is how long it takes to pay off. The lottery itself won't be around long enough; the country hosting it won't be around long enough.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2016, 10:58:55 pm »
0

Just read this in an article about the lotto:

Scott A. Norris, an assistant professor of mathematics at Southern Methodist University, said there's no trick to playing the lottery, but your tiny odds of winning are a bit better if you let the computer pick rather than choosing yourself. That's because when people use birthdates or other favorite figures, they generally choose numbers 31 or below. That ignores the fact that there are 69 numbered balls.

Um, this is completely wrong, isn't it? The odds of the numbers coming up "1, 2, 3, 4, 5" are exactly the same as the odds of the numbers coming up "4, 24, 43, 50, 55". Or whatever.
It could be a miscommunication between the dude and the article-writer. Your odds of winning are the same however you pick your numbers, if the specific system isn't biased in some way that would have to be explained. But you can in fact increase your expected earnings by picking numbers other people aren't picking, because the prize gets split. Which does not favor picking randomly, it favors specifically trying to pick those unpicked numbers. I will just tell you now, for 6/49 lotteries you want some mix of 10, 20, 29, 30, 32, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 48, 49.

It's not hard to get positive expectation; the tricky part is how long it takes to pay off. The lottery itself won't be around long enough; the country hosting it won't be around long enough.

Ah right! I had previously known about the "avoid numbers others are picking", but had forgotten. And the article didn't explain that part.
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Davio

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2016, 05:50:16 am »
+3

Just pick 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 & 42.

Be wary of inbound meteorites.
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heron

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2016, 12:28:14 pm »
+5

Just pick 4, 8, 15, 16, 23 & 42.

Be wary of inbound meteorites.

You lost me with that joke.
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DStu

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2016, 11:04:25 am »
0

It's not hard to get positive expectation; the tricky part is how long it takes to pay off. The lottery itself won't be around long enough; the country hosting it won't be around long enough.

More importantly, you also need infinite captial to be able to stick to your strategy, which makes winning a finite amount a bit of an edge case...
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LastFootnote

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2016, 11:10:19 am »
0

It's not hard to get positive expectation; the tricky part is how long it takes to pay off. The lottery itself won't be around long enough; the country hosting it won't be around long enough.

More importantly, you also need infinite captial to be able to stick to your strategy, which makes winning a finite amount a bit of an edge case...

Well, presumably you have a steady income throughout the infinite time you'll need. I can't see this being an issue.
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DStu

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2016, 11:13:20 am »
0

It's not hard to get positive expectation; the tricky part is how long it takes to pay off. The lottery itself won't be around long enough; the country hosting it won't be around long enough.

More importantly, you also need infinite captial to be able to stick to your strategy, which makes winning a finite amount a bit of an edge case...

Well, presumably you have a steady income throughout the infinite time you'll need. I can't see this being an issue.

True. So let's do it!
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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2016, 11:24:25 am »
0

If we finally figure out how to live forever, the lottery will be deprecated because we'll have infinite time.

Of course, infinite longevity for all requires a post-scarcity society, which also deprecated lotteries.
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enfynet

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2016, 01:37:51 pm »
0

New math trolling around Facebook.

Lottery $1.3 Billion
Population 300 Million
= $4.33 Million per person!

...

I'm thinking they messed up some mundane detail.
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DStu

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2016, 02:04:03 pm »
0

New math trolling around Facebook.

Lottery $1.3 Billion
Population 300 Million
= $4.33 Million per person!

...

I'm thinking they messed up some mundane detail.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales probably.
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enfynet

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2016, 02:09:06 pm »
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Yeah, but does anyone use that definition anymore? I've only seen it used to explain the origin of the word.
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DStu

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2016, 02:10:29 pm »
0

Yeah, but does anyone use that definition anymore? I've only seen it used to explain the origin of the word.
There are countries that do, so might be translation error
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Kirian

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2016, 03:11:38 pm »
0

Yeah, but does anyone use that definition anymore? I've only seen it used to explain the origin of the word.
There are countries that do, so might be translation error

Perhaps, but I can't imagine any intelligent person in Britain/Australia believing that a lottery would actually give away a trillion (10^12) dollars.
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Asper

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #14 on: January 12, 2016, 10:46:12 am »
+1

Yeah, but does anyone use that definition anymore? I've only seen it used to explain the origin of the word.
There are countries that do, so might be translation error

Perhaps, but I can't imagine any intelligent person in Britain/Australia believing that a lottery would actually give away a trillion (10^12) dollars.

Now i want a Doctor Who episode with an intergalactic lottery.
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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2016, 10:55:57 am »
+1

Despite the whole arithmetic thing, I have to wonder where they think that influx of cash into the lottery comes from such that it could be the case that <total winnings>/<population size> is on the order of millions.  Do they think there is, like, a few billionaires investing millions in it?
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Kuildeous

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2016, 12:17:01 pm »
0

I hadn't considered the difference in scale, but the Lotto is an American thing, right? While I suppose someone could mean 1.3 * 10^12 dollars, I have my doubts that an American would be using that definition. Unless he set the whole thing up as a joke.

I'm going to go instead with the notion that the average person can't work math in unfamiliar units/notation.

I present this oldie as Exhibit A:

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Joseph2302

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2016, 03:46:28 pm »
0

Yeah, but does anyone use that definition anymore? I've only seen it used to explain the origin of the word.
There are countries that do, so might be translation error
As a mathematician, I do.
Confused people a lot when you tell them the world population is 7,000 million for example.
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Watno

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #18 on: January 12, 2016, 04:33:07 pm »
0

But there is no definition of million where this isn't true?
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enfynet

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #19 on: January 12, 2016, 05:01:52 pm »
+1

As far as I know, there is not.

There are several definitions of a million billions, though.
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Joseph2302

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #20 on: January 12, 2016, 05:29:51 pm »
0

As far as I know, there is not.

There are several definitions of a million billions, though.
There isn't, but no-one realises that 7,000 million is the same as what most people call 7 billion.
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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #21 on: January 12, 2016, 06:17:18 pm »
0

New math trolling around Facebook.

Lottery $1.3 Billion
Population 300 Million
= $4.33 Million per person!

...

I'm thinking they messed up some mundane detail.

Could this be that detail?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales
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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #22 on: January 12, 2016, 06:46:29 pm »
+1

New math trolling around Facebook.

Lottery $1.3 Billion
Population 300 Million
= $4.33 Million per person!

...

I'm thinking they messed up some mundane detail.

Could this be that detail?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales
Specific reference goes to:

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Davio

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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #23 on: January 13, 2016, 02:05:10 am »
+2

Office Spaces has so many memorable quotes and scratches so many itches.

PC Load Letter? What the f* does that mean?
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Re: Math and lotto stuf
« Reply #24 on: January 13, 2016, 02:28:47 am »
+1

Yeah, but does anyone use that definition anymore? I've only seen it used to explain the origin of the word.
There are countries that do, so might be translation error
As a mathematician, I do.
Confused people a lot when you tell them the world population is 7,000 million for example.

I believe you mean the world population is 7 milliard.
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