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Author Topic: Random Stuff Part III  (Read 163147 times)

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Teproc

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3000 on: December 05, 2017, 05:59:07 am »
0

Which one has the Russian villain who falls into a vat of caviar ? That happened right, I didn't imagine it ?
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3001 on: December 05, 2017, 12:57:33 pm »
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Which one has the Russian villain who falls into a vat of caviar ? That happened right, I didn't imagine it ?

I can't remember that ever happening.

Though in Diamonds Are Forever Bond kills a Blofeld double by pouring face-altering-mud-stuff on top of him. And in the book version of Dr. No the main villain dies after Bond dumps a truckload of guano on top of him. Probably not what you're thinking of though.
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3002 on: December 05, 2017, 01:22:35 pm »
+2

Which one has the Russian villain who falls into a vat of caviar ? That happened right, I didn't imagine it ?

This is why Arnold Schwarzenegger needs to be a James Bond just so this exact scene can happen, and Bond quips with, "Well, that was egg-cellent."
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3003 on: December 05, 2017, 01:34:40 pm »
+1

And the villain's all like, "I rue this roe!"
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3004 on: December 05, 2017, 01:35:07 pm »
+1

You could make like a million yolks on this subject.
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Teproc

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3005 on: December 05, 2017, 01:38:09 pm »
0

Doing some googling, it's definitely The World Is Not Enough, but it might only be that Bond threatens to throw him in the caviar and doesn't actually do it ? I couldn't find a clip. The villain in question was played by Robbie Coltrane, aka Hagrid, which, ok.
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3006 on: December 05, 2017, 03:33:30 pm »
0

Doing some googling, it's definitely The World Is Not Enough, but it might only be that Bond threatens to throw him in the caviar and doesn't actually do it ? I couldn't find a clip. The villain in question was played by Robbie Coltrane, aka Hagrid, which, ok.

I'll check it out when I get home and I'll let you know.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3007 on: December 05, 2017, 05:39:02 pm »
0



[loud tea whistling noise]
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3008 on: December 06, 2017, 01:23:32 am »
+3

Alright I just watched it. The Russian dude jumps into some caviar to avoid the blades flying towards him from a helicopter Bond blows up. Bond doesn't help him out until he gives him information.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3009 on: December 06, 2017, 06:06:12 am »
+1

Alright I just watched it. The Russian dude jumps into some caviar to avoid the blades flying towards him from a helicopter Bond blows up. Bond doesn't help him out until he gives him information.

Ah-ha ! I'm not crazy ! Thank you.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3010 on: December 06, 2017, 12:42:13 pm »
0



Holy crap is BGG giving away a huge amount of geek gold this year.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3011 on: December 06, 2017, 02:13:20 pm »
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I don't think The World is Not Enough is that bad honestly. The worst parts were Denise Richards' awful acting and the relentless onslaught of bad puns.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3012 on: December 06, 2017, 02:30:42 pm »
0

and the relentless onslaught of bad puns.

Man, if you have a problem with those why are you on FDS?
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3013 on: December 06, 2017, 03:08:36 pm »
+3

and the relentless onslaught of bad puns.

Man, if you have a problem with those why are you on FDS?

Good point, I guess you could say I have a special Bond with f.ds.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3014 on: December 06, 2017, 03:10:56 pm »
0

From Russia With Puns.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3015 on: December 06, 2017, 05:17:13 pm »
+3

From Russia With Puns.

The Man with the Golden Pun
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3016 on: December 06, 2017, 07:57:46 pm »
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I don't think The World is Not Enough is that bad honestly. The worst parts were Denise Richards' awful acting and the relentless onslaught of bad puns.

"Christmas comes early" was likely the worst of the batch.
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jonts26

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3017 on: December 06, 2017, 08:11:09 pm »
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I don't think The World is Not Enough is that bad honestly. The worst parts were Denise Richards' awful acting and the relentless onslaught of bad puns.

"Christmas comes early" was likely the worst of the batch.

I thought it was "I thought Christmas only came once a year?"
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3018 on: December 06, 2017, 08:12:25 pm »
0

I don't think The World is Not Enough is that bad honestly. The worst parts were Denise Richards' awful acting and the relentless onslaught of bad puns.

"Christmas comes early" was likely the worst of the batch.

He probably says that at some point but I know the last line of the movie is "I thought Christmas comes only once a year".

Edit: ninja'd
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Kuildeous

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3019 on: December 09, 2017, 03:23:26 am »
+1

As a former Monty-Hall-denier, I can get how people mistakenly think that you have a 50-50 shot of getting the car by sticking with the original door. But it only took a hyperbole of a million doors to make me reconsider my ways and examine the math in full.

So when I see someone make the claim that picking one door out of a million still means he has a 50-50 shot of getting it right, I am absolutely floored by that stubbornness. How can that example not shake somebody's belief? Just how?
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ashersky

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3020 on: December 09, 2017, 07:34:09 am »
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As a former Monty-Hall-denier, I can get how people mistakenly think that you have a 50-50 shot of getting the car by sticking with the original door. But it only took a hyperbole of a million doors to make me reconsider my ways and examine the math in full.

So when I see someone make the claim that picking one door out of a million still means he has a 50-50 shot of getting it right, I am absolutely floored by that stubbornness. How can that example not shake somebody's belief? Just how?

Can you expound?  I donít see how the million doors applies to a 1 in 3 problem.

On the whole switch thing, what Iíve never understood is how it accounts for the third of the time I selected the right door in the first place.

The argument is that if I choose door A out of A/B/C, and then Iím informed C is definitely wrong, I must change my selection to B, right?  I get that chances went from 1/3 to 1/2, but doesnít that apply to both A and B?
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3021 on: December 09, 2017, 07:37:56 am »
0

As a former Monty-Hall-denier, I can get how people mistakenly think that you have a 50-50 shot of getting the car by sticking with the original door. But it only took a hyperbole of a million doors to make me reconsider my ways and examine the math in full.

So when I see someone make the claim that picking one door out of a million still means he has a 50-50 shot of getting it right, I am absolutely floored by that stubbornness. How can that example not shake somebody's belief? Just how?

Can you expound?  I donít see how the million doors applies to a 1 in 3 problem.

On the whole switch thing, what Iíve never understood is how it accounts for the third of the time I selected the right door in the first place.

The argument is that if I choose door A out of A/B/C, and then Iím informed C is definitely wrong, I must change my selection to B, right?  I get that chances went from 1/3 to 1/2, but doesnít that apply to both A and B?

And I donít mean ďstickĒ with A.  I mean choose A again, with new knowledge.  So, I unchoose A, then make a new decision based on new info.  A or B, knowing one is right and one is wrong.  Canít A then have the same probability as B?
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3022 on: December 09, 2017, 08:53:19 am »
+3

Say you have a million doors, with a prize behind one. You pick one door, the host opens 999,998 of them (not the one you picked), making sure not to open the one with the prize behind it, and then you have the opportunity to switch doors.

You'd have to be crazy not to switch. The host almost certainly picked the door he didn't want to open because it had the prize behind it. There was a 1 in a million chance you originally picked the correct door, but the other 999,999/1,000,000 times, the door that the host went out of his way not to open is the one with the prize behind it.
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3023 on: December 09, 2017, 09:01:22 am »
+3

On the whole switch thing, what Iíve never understood is how it accounts for the third of the time I selected the right door in the first place.

That happens 1/3 of the time; in that case, you lose. But that is the only case in which you lose, so if you switch, you now have only a 1/3 chance of losing, which means you have a 2/3 (better than 50-50) chance of winning, so you should switch.

The argument is that if I choose door A out of A/B/C, and then Iím informed C is definitely wrong, I must change my selection to B, right?  I get that chances went from 1/3 to 1/2, but doesnít that apply to both A and B?

This is the incorrect understanding that most people have. Most people think "now I have picked one door out of 2, instead of one out of 3, so the probability of winning is 1/2 instead of 1/3". This would be correct if this was all the information you had, but the way in which the host chose which door to eliminate changes how the probability is distributed among the two doors.

There are three cases:
A. The prize is behind door A. The host eliminates a random door, you switch to the other one, and lose.
B. The prize is behind door B. The host eliminates door C, you switch to B and win.
C. The prize is behind door C. The host eliminates door B, you switch to C and win.
These cases are all equally likely, and if you switch, you win in 2 out of 3 of them. If you hadn't switched, you would have won in only 1 out of 3 of them (case A).


The argument is the same as in the example with 1 million doors, just that 3 is a lot smaller than 1 million, so the advantage you get by switching is a lot smaller (and less intuitively obvious).
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Re: Random Stuff Part III
« Reply #3024 on: December 09, 2017, 10:28:04 am »
+1

The argument is the same as in the example with 1 million doors, just that 3 is a lot smaller than 1 million, so the advantage you get by switching is a lot smaller (and less intuitively obvious).

I think this is key right here. The minimum number of doors for the Monty Hall problem to work is 3. It is the closest to 50%. And if you run a small number of trials, then you may get numbers that are closer to 50%. Nobody is going to try to run this trial thousands of times to get a truer average.

I did do something similar. I wrote up an Excel sheet and converted it to Google Sheets. I wanted to show that out of 10k trials, the average is close to 2/3. I know some people wrote programs to simulate this, but not everyone can see what the code is or be assured that it was that code that produced the results. I wrote this to a) be accessible to anybody and b) be verifiable and c) be able to duplicated. A person could copy this sheet, verify the top row, and copy the formulas 10k times (or more). I've shown this to a few people, and no one has disputed my formulas yet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mkpiI3nW8rVxZJML2Hj6I2o_cSXC6-JOoe4YvcTgYFY/edit?usp=sharing

I understand the 50% misunderstanding. I was there. It feels so intuitive because you do have two doors, so of course it's 1 in 2, right? Except that like Scott pointed out, you're not randomly choosing from two doors. You're only re-evaluating your initial choice. That choice was 1 in 3 to begin with, and that probability does not change because it's not a new problem.

But, smarter people than me have fallen for it, as evident by how nasty PhDs can get when they think they're right:
http://marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/
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