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Author Topic: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Town Wins!)  (Read 58849 times)

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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2250 on: December 15, 2015, 10:33:50 am »

don't think they're scummy*
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Haddock

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2251 on: December 15, 2015, 10:38:41 am »

I feel the same way. 

And such I propose a novel new idea: We lynch the WW.
I would vote for either faust or WW if it were the only way to get a lynch through.  But I don't like it.  I don't believe that it's possible for anyone to tell with any certainty at this point which of the two of them is lying.   They both have several towny things going for them. 

I don't understand why you think it's such a bad idea to let some time pass to try to get some more information that might help us pick one of them more accurately.
Maybe you just don't fancy our chances of finding scum today.  Well that's fair.  I'm on similar ground at the moment.
But I think it's worth looking, the consequences of getting it wrong out of faust/WW could be pretty awful.

PPE. Welp, I think any of the 3 claimed roles so far could be scum pulling a bold gambit.  But since we have no idea which at this point, leaving it for now seems decent.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2252 on: December 15, 2015, 10:39:43 am »

I feel the same way. 

And such I propose a novel new idea: We lynch the WW.

I propose a novel new idea: read and respond (ideally by moving your vote elsewhere) to the posts that completely shut down your reasons for wanting to lynch WW.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2253 on: December 15, 2015, 11:22:45 am »

A pass for hydrad, that is

It's a mitigating factor, not enough to be a pass for me. I would guess that about 1 of the three scum (assuming a single team) did nothing. Hydrad could also be a ninja.

Every mafia player could be a Strongman Ninja Redirecting Roleblocker... but I doubt it.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2254 on: December 15, 2015, 11:28:51 am »

What I ultimately get out of this is that I don't see scum!WW thinking at the start of day...

"hmmm I should fake a breadcrumb on hydrad" forgetting to do just that in his mildly suspicious post of 1451 and then remembering two posts later "oh yeah! I was supposed to breadcrumb about hydrad! Duh doy!" and then doing just that.

Or that WW in going back and looking for a safe breadcrumb would have missed the 1451, which may have disqualified a "breadcrumb" about hydrad as being suspicious on him.

What I see more here is WW posting something (1451) that had more to do with hydrad's playstyle of "being along for the ride" as WW says elsewhere than actual suspicion. and once he inadvertantly got haddock's attention on hydrad he felt compelled to try and remove some of that by leaving a "don't want to lynch hydrad" post that also served as a breadcrumb for a claim later.

The argument seems to be that scum!WW immediately breadcrumbs, while town!WW does not... but I don't understand why.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2255 on: December 15, 2015, 11:30:07 am »

the problem with what amaphorus is suggesting is that he is saying that mafia will eliminate a potential fake scum read and potential mislynch (WW posting that hydrad is townie) for the sake of having a breadcrumb.

Hydrad need not be town. And scum!WW does not need to use that breadcrumb if he feels it would be detrimental.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2256 on: December 15, 2015, 11:31:30 am »

Out of the possibilities this is the more probable, but still less likely than the likelihood of ww just being town and bread crumbing...

Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable.

You mean to say less likely than WW being town and breadcrumbing and scum having a redirecting power and scum using it on me?
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2257 on: December 15, 2015, 11:36:58 am »

I'm not sure I like this post.
There's an inherent contradiction in saying you think faust or WW are likely scum but believe their Hydrad result. 
You're kinda hedgey about Teproc.

And the last sentence reads a lot like "Look at me, I'm trying to get a good lynch through, but will make sure that my hammer, should I provide it, is as towny-looking as possible!"

This reminds me that I need to reread you.

It is not "their" Hydrad result, it is WW's. But people continuedly like to forget that my result is on WW.

The reasoning here is wrong... If you believe, say, with 50% certainty that WW is scum (that qualifies as "likely scum"), and that if WW is town, then there is an 80% chance that Hydrad is town also, then that should still influence your Hydrad read by an amount that I am too lazy to calculate.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2258 on: December 15, 2015, 11:40:04 am »

I feel the same way. 

And such I propose a novel new idea: We lynch the WW.
I would vote for either faust or WW if it were the only way to get a lynch through.  But I don't like it.  I don't believe that it's possible for anyone to tell with any certainty at this point which of the two of them is lying.   They both have several towny things going for them.

I can!

I don't understand why you think it's such a bad idea to let some time pass to try to get some more information that might help us pick one of them more accurately.
Maybe you just don't fancy our chances of finding scum today.  Well that's fair.  I'm on similar ground at the moment.
But I think it's worth looking, the consequences of getting it wrong out of faust/WW could be pretty awful.

PPE. Welp, I think any of the 3 claimed roles so far could be scum pulling a bold gambit.  But since we have no idea which at this point, leaving it for now seems decent.

Hitting scum early usually great improves the odds for town. WW is by far the most likely to be scum. And it's not like we have to be afraid of losing a super important role in him.
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Haddock

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2259 on: December 15, 2015, 11:44:16 am »

I don't understand why you think it's such a bad idea to let some time pass to try to get some more information that might help us pick one of them more accurately.
Maybe you just don't fancy our chances of finding scum today.  Well that's fair.  I'm on similar ground at the moment.
But I think it's worth looking, the consequences of getting it wrong out of faust/WW could be pretty awful.

PPE. Welp, I think any of the 3 claimed roles so far could be scum pulling a bold gambit.  But since we have no idea which at this point, leaving it for now seems decent.

Hitting scum early usually great improves the odds for town. WW is by far the most likely to be scum. And it's not like we have to be afraid of losing a super important role in him.
2 things:

1) I have to do my best to not pay attention when you say "WW is super likely to be scum", because you might be scum.  See my previous comments on the matter.
2) I'm not afraid of the role loss.  I'm afraid of the possibility that you're both town.  We lynch WW, he's town, we almost certainly then lynch you, tada! Scum win.

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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

2.71828.....

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2260 on: December 15, 2015, 11:46:16 am »

RR should really vote.

I am also warming up to a random last second ampharos lynch. I know my D1 scum read on him really cooled off a lot, but absolute refusal to even look at any one else until WW is lynched? I guess that is more anti town than scum. And yeah, lynch scum not people just playing what you would describe as anti town. But still
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Haddock

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2261 on: December 15, 2015, 11:51:53 am »

RR should really vote.
Couldn't agree more.

I am also warming up to a random last second ampharos lynch. I know my D1 scum read on him really cooled off a lot, but absolute refusal to even look at any one else until WW is lynched? I guess that is more anti town than scum. And yeah, lynch scum not people just playing what you would describe as anti town. But still
COULD agree more. 
If we're talking random off-the-wall lynches, there must surely be better candidates.  Amph has seemed towny to me all game except with this WW thing, which reads more like stubborn towny than actual scummitiness.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2262 on: December 15, 2015, 11:54:34 am »

RR should really vote.

I am also warming up to a random last second ampharos lynch. I know my D1 scum read on him really cooled off a lot, but absolute refusal to even look at any one else until WW is lynched? I guess that is more anti town than scum. And yeah, lynch scum not people just playing what you would describe as anti town. But still

I also have a random lynch I'd like to see happen, but I don't think you'd like it...

But yes, RR needs to vote, preferrably for one of {EgorK, Witherweaver, Haddock}
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2263 on: December 15, 2015, 11:56:57 am »

What I ultimately get out of this is that I don't see scum!WW thinking at the start of day...

"hmmm I should fake a breadcrumb on hydrad" forgetting to do just that in his mildly suspicious post of 1451 and then remembering two posts later "oh yeah! I was supposed to breadcrumb about hydrad! Duh doy!" and then doing just that.

Or that WW in going back and looking for a safe breadcrumb would have missed the 1451, which may have disqualified a "breadcrumb" about hydrad as being suspicious on him.

What I see more here is WW posting something (1451) that had more to do with hydrad's playstyle of "being along for the ride" as WW says elsewhere than actual suspicion. and once he inadvertantly got haddock's attention on hydrad he felt compelled to try and remove some of that by leaving a "don't want to lynch hydrad" post that also served as a breadcrumb for a claim later.

The argument seems to be that scum!WW immediately breadcrumbs, while town!WW does not... but I don't understand why.

I'm honestly surprised you think that fake just-in-case breadcrumbing is a thing. 

Let's get back to facts.  I used my power on Hydrad last night.  Discuss from there.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2264 on: December 15, 2015, 11:57:15 am »

The only thing awful about this game is the attitude.
PPE
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2265 on: December 15, 2015, 11:58:47 am »

And why do I need to vote? I mean, I understand that I should, and I will after a short reread, but need is sort of a string word for this.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2266 on: December 15, 2015, 12:04:26 pm »

And why do I need to vote? I mean, I understand that I should, and I will after a short reread, but need is sort of a string word for this.

Voting is just kind of how the game works.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2267 on: December 15, 2015, 12:08:20 pm »

RR should really vote.

I am also warming up to a random last second ampharos lynch. I know my D1 scum read on him really cooled off a lot, but absolute refusal to even look at any one else until WW is lynched? I guess that is more anti town than scum. And yeah, lynch scum not people just playing what you would describe as anti town. But still

The thing is, it looks more like misguided town than scum.  I guess if he believes my lynch will not go through it gets him off the hook from actually contributing, but generally scum, especially newer scum (I think Amph is new?) isn't going to want to be the sole stubborn driver of a mislynch.  Too much attention and it relies on someone making this argument after.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2268 on: December 15, 2015, 12:09:21 pm »

I have to admit I'm scared of rereads... 91 pages is a lot of stuff. Could there be scum intentionally spamming the thread to make rereads hard? I know someone proposed that way back in my first scum game (M31). None of my then-teammates is in this game sadly.

For the sake of avoiding to sound like a broken record and because I am slightly worried that WW might not happen, let's look at other options though. I will go way back to the Awaclus wagon; I don't think anyone has done proper wagon analysis so far.

Before the Awaclus wagon gets started, the main wagons are

Ampharos (4): Hydrad, e, faust, silver
e (3): Egor, Teproc, WW

with focus on e.

Then I vote, and WW joins in (he has been switching between Ampharos/Awaclus before, i.e. was on all three wagons). Then igauna:

Vote: Awaclus

I've already given my reasons. They haven't changed, they've just been aggravated.

This is the post where iguana talks about Awaclus before that:

If it was Awaclus OTOH pushing a Yuma lynch, one would expect him to know better. Oh wait, Awaclus was pushing a Yuma lynch.

Everyone is saying they're fine with an Awaclus lynch. Well, I'll say that I like it a lot better than an Ampharos lynch.

Any takers?

Then comes e's vote, basically making Awaclus the only real wagon at the time. It is consistent with e' earlier attitude:

oh good.  Now we can move on and lynch either Awaclus or Ampharos.

Ampharos because he is scummy

Awaclus because he is a lurker who tried to take advantage of the whole yuma disappearing act to lynch yuma.  Which I think is scummy.

At this point, RR votes Ampharos over Awaclus. That is somewhat towny. yuma comes in and does not comment about the Awaclus wagon at all. Weird. Scummy. Teproc makes a long e case. silver votes e in response. Haddock thinks silver's post is towny and joins in on e. Now it's pretty much e vs Awaclus.

RR says his lynch preferences are Ampharos>e>Awaclus (these are actually his top three. Ugh. Blending in much?). Hydrad makes a scummy post:

well awaclus's lynch at worst gives us info on who has been defending him and stuff. So i think awaclus lynch here is ok also.

Haddock makes a post in which he reverts his read on Awaclus and votes for him. People have suggested this is scummy; I disagree. It would be very bold play to make a 180 turn on the most popular wagon. Then this:

How many votes are on Awaclus?

5 (aka L-2)
This may look scummy, but Vote: Awaclus

Yes, it does look scummy indeed. And then the hammer.

So I think the most scummy stuff here is Hydrad and RR. I'm also concerned about e and yuma. Haddock and Teproc are tentatively townie.

PPE: 9
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2269 on: December 15, 2015, 12:12:46 pm »

Faust's behavior is more suspicious.  He initially believes me and then moves back around to committing.  It's a bit how scum reacted to the Mason claim back in Dice Mafia. (Town was very suspicious, scum immediately considered us IC's until they realized they shouldn't have.)

On the other hand, I see very few motivations for scum!Faust here.  It would be interesting if Faust was scum and scum actually had a Bus Driver/Redirector, as that flip together with my flip would semi-IC Faust.  That's, uh, a lot of contingencies.  Faust could have really believed he was going to be (eventually) lynched and decided that an early claim was more believable than a late (L-1) claim (as he said), so decided something like this could be worth it.

PPE
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2270 on: December 15, 2015, 12:13:20 pm »

What I ultimately get out of this is that I don't see scum!WW thinking at the start of day...

"hmmm I should fake a breadcrumb on hydrad" forgetting to do just that in his mildly suspicious post of 1451 and then remembering two posts later "oh yeah! I was supposed to breadcrumb about hydrad! Duh doy!" and then doing just that.

Or that WW in going back and looking for a safe breadcrumb would have missed the 1451, which may have disqualified a "breadcrumb" about hydrad as being suspicious on him.

What I see more here is WW posting something (1451) that had more to do with hydrad's playstyle of "being along for the ride" as WW says elsewhere than actual suspicion. and once he inadvertantly got haddock's attention on hydrad he felt compelled to try and remove some of that by leaving a "don't want to lynch hydrad" post that also served as a breadcrumb for a claim later.

The argument seems to be that scum!WW immediately breadcrumbs, while town!WW does not... but I don't understand why.

I'm honestly surprised you think that fake just-in-case breadcrumbing is a thing. 

Let's get back to facts.  I used my power on Hydrad last night.  Discuss from there.

It is more of a thing than the scum redirection fairytale. You're also scummy because you do not push for my lynch.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2271 on: December 15, 2015, 12:13:48 pm »

Faust thinks I'm scummy? I thoughy we decided RR lynches were dumb!
PPE
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2272 on: December 15, 2015, 12:14:27 pm »

What I ultimately get out of this is that I don't see scum!WW thinking at the start of day...

"hmmm I should fake a breadcrumb on hydrad" forgetting to do just that in his mildly suspicious post of 1451 and then remembering two posts later "oh yeah! I was supposed to breadcrumb about hydrad! Duh doy!" and then doing just that.

Or that WW in going back and looking for a safe breadcrumb would have missed the 1451, which may have disqualified a "breadcrumb" about hydrad as being suspicious on him.

What I see more here is WW posting something (1451) that had more to do with hydrad's playstyle of "being along for the ride" as WW says elsewhere than actual suspicion. and once he inadvertantly got haddock's attention on hydrad he felt compelled to try and remove some of that by leaving a "don't want to lynch hydrad" post that also served as a breadcrumb for a claim later.

The argument seems to be that scum!WW immediately breadcrumbs, while town!WW does not... but I don't understand why.

I'm honestly surprised you think that fake just-in-case breadcrumbing is a thing. 

Let's get back to facts.  I used my power on Hydrad last night.  Discuss from there.

It is more of a thing than the scum redirection fairytale. You're also scummy because you do not push for my lynch.

I'm sorry, do you have a better scum!You explanation than the one I proposed?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2273 on: December 15, 2015, 12:15:24 pm »

Also on me is Hydrad, which I don't really get as he essentially said he believed me after getting caught up.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2274 on: December 15, 2015, 12:16:16 pm »

Also on me is Hydrad, which I don't really get as he essentially said he believed me after getting caught up.

I guess he's been hedgey, back-and-forth, which is pretty indicative of Hydrad.
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