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Author Topic: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Town Wins!)  (Read 58846 times)

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2200 on: December 14, 2015, 03:19:21 pm »

So for now, my lynch pool is {Haddock, Hydrad, Ampharos, Teproc, EgorK, RR}
Hydrad is behaving like hydrad. Which I think is townie.

That doesn't really add-up. "Hydrad is Hydrad" means null at best.

True. I should add, plus the WW result makes me bit want to lynch him.

I need to go back and reread teproc. Haven't really done that
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2201 on: December 14, 2015, 03:20:08 pm »

Is there any way around a non-WW/Faust lynch?

those of us on egork certainly seem to think so...
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2202 on: December 14, 2015, 03:21:46 pm »

Is there any way around a non-WW/Faust lynch?

those of us on egork certainly seem to think so...
Did I say that? I meant 'is there anyway to have a Faust/WW lynch.' I need to get more sleep.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2203 on: December 14, 2015, 03:22:52 pm »

Is there any way around a non-WW/Faust lynch? I don't like lynching either of them, but a flip would be sooooo good for the town.

Not unless you vote
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Ampharos

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2204 on: December 14, 2015, 03:24:30 pm »

Yeah. I just dont see those breadcrumbs as made up

Exactly.  I'm specifically saying the breadcrumbs were not made up, but were made for the eventuality that they could be fakeclaimed on and fallen back on if needed. 
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2205 on: December 14, 2015, 03:25:50 pm »

Yeah. I just dont see those breadcrumbs as made up

Exactly.  I'm specifically saying the breadcrumbs were not made up, but were made for the eventuality that they could be fakeclaimed on and fallen back on if needed.
I was thinking this, too!
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2206 on: December 14, 2015, 03:26:08 pm »

Is there any way around a non-WW/Faust lynch? I don't like lynching either of them, but a flip would be sooooo good for the town.

Not unless you vote
Good point.
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Ampharos

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2207 on: December 14, 2015, 03:28:30 pm »

Yeah. I just dont see those breadcrumbs as made up

Exactly.  I'm specifically saying the breadcrumbs were not made up, but were made for the eventuality that they could be fakeclaimed on and fallen back on if needed.

It's basically WW saying "I breadcrumbed - how could I possibly have done that as scum?", when I find breadcrumbing to be more a scum tell than town, since they are easy to fakeclaim on and can be picked up by scum for possibly NKs if done as town. 
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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2208 on: December 14, 2015, 03:29:28 pm »

Is there any way around a non-WW/Faust lynch? I don't like lynching either of them, but a flip would be sooooo good for the town.

How so ?

Obviously if they flip scum, great.

But if they flip town (either of them), does that really tell us anything ?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2209 on: December 14, 2015, 03:32:05 pm »

Is there any way around a non-WW/Faust lynch? I don't like lynching either of them, but a flip would be sooooo good for the town.

How so ?

Obviously if they flip scum, great.

But if they flip town (either of them), does that really tell us anything ?
It tells us they weren't lying.  :P
But you seem to be the voice of reason, so I'll go with 'you're probably right.'

Gee, the more I think about it, the more I like the EgorK lynch.
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2210 on: December 14, 2015, 03:32:37 pm »

WW posted this here:

I'd prefer not to lynch Hydrad today.
post 1454

Hydrad's previous posts before that were: 1417 (vote on amp), , 1418 (saying he was going to sleep), 1416 (talking about me and awaclus), 1400 (welcome back) and 1414 (correcting a vote count)

So nothing there that I think anyone could or should get a townread off...

There is also the question of whether perhaps WW was inspired to make the post because Hydrad was receiving some suspicion and WW felt that it would be a good thing for him to voice a desire to not lynch hydrad at that moment...

So I am going to look for that just in general of post before 1454...

Ok. well right before that there was 1453 where haddock said he wanted to look at him.

then there is this, 1451... where WW states something that almost looks like suspicion on him...

Welcome back!

Nice how Hydrad doesn't provide anything during the day, but he's always the first to come in after the thread unlock.

So it is WW who actually brings up the hydrad point to begin with, with a slight suspicion toned post... but then once haddock indicates he wants to look at him, WW says he doesn't want to lynch him....

I don't see anything else discussing suspicion of hydrad prior to that point.

From day1:

WW read hydrad as slightly townie, with more slightly suspiciously toned posts that have more to do with hydrad's playstyle than anything else...


tl;dr...

What I ultimately get out of this is that I don't see scum!WW thinking at the start of day...

"hmmm I should fake a breadcrumb on hydrad" forgetting to do just that in his mildly suspicious post of 1451 and then remembering two posts later "oh yeah! I was supposed to breadcrumb about hydrad! Duh doy!" and then doing just that.

Or that WW in going back and looking for a safe breadcrumb would have missed the 1451, which may have disqualified a "breadcrumb" about hydrad as being suspicious on him.

What I see more here is WW posting something (1451) that had more to do with hydrad's playstyle of "being along for the ride" as WW says elsewhere than actual suspicion. and once he inadvertantly got haddock's attention on hydrad he felt compelled to try and remove some of that by leaving a "don't want to lynch hydrad" post that also served as a breadcrumb for a claim later.
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2211 on: December 14, 2015, 03:35:59 pm »

the problem with what amaphorus is suggesting is that he is saying that mafia will eliminate a potential fake scum read and potential mislynch (WW posting that hydrad is townie) for the sake of having a breadcrumb.

That just isn't realistic. Needing a breadcrumb doesn't come up that often. If faust hadn't had a result on him, it wouldn't have been needed at all.

Needing to get a mislynch through... that is necessary every day. If hydrad had become a lynch candidate scum!WW would have effectively eliminated him from people he could safely lynch because he would have stated that he was town previously and a reread would have found that contradiction and he would have been found scummy and opportunistic for it.

Ampharos... mafia doesn't give up essential necessities for unlikely possibilities. They just don't.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2212 on: December 14, 2015, 03:41:34 pm »

Is there any way around a non-WW/Faust lynch? I don't like lynching either of them, but a flip would be sooooo good for the town.

How so ?

Obviously if they flip scum, great.

But if they flip town (either of them), does that really tell us anything ?
It tells us they weren't lying.  :P
But you seem to be the voice of reason, so I'll go with 'you're probably right.'

That second part is pretty dangerous, I could easily be scum manipulating you.

But in any case : yes it confirms their claim. What I'm saying is that it's not a clear cut case of "if one is telling the truth, the other one is scum". I'm personally leaning towards them both being town at this point.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2213 on: December 14, 2015, 03:45:05 pm »

I was actually just about to reread Teproc! I've been getting scummy vibes from him, and in case he is scum, I don't want it to look like we're buddying.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2214 on: December 14, 2015, 03:52:19 pm »

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2215 on: December 14, 2015, 04:01:59 pm »

Yeah. I just dont see those breadcrumbs as made up

Exactly.  I'm specifically saying the breadcrumbs were not made up, but were made for the eventuality that they could be fakeclaimed on and fallen back on if needed.

This doesn't happen.  This is why it's a bad argument.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2216 on: December 14, 2015, 04:02:18 pm »

Yeah. I just dont see those breadcrumbs as made up

Exactly.  I'm specifically saying the breadcrumbs were not made up, but were made for the eventuality that they could be fakeclaimed on and fallen back on if needed.
I was thinking this, too!

Try thinking better.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2217 on: December 14, 2015, 04:04:32 pm »

Yeah. I just dont see those breadcrumbs as made up

Exactly.  I'm specifically saying the breadcrumbs were not made up, but were made for the eventuality that they could be fakeclaimed on and fallen back on if needed.
I was thinking this, too!

Try thinking better.
It seems realistic for someone like you. And I know this was already discussed, but I think it's possible you didn't breadcrumb and you just looked back for something you did that could potentially be a breadcrumb.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2218 on: December 14, 2015, 04:07:56 pm »

What I see more here is WW posting something (1451) that had more to do with hydrad's playstyle of "being along for the ride" as WW says elsewhere than actual suspicion. and once he inadvertantly got haddock's attention on hydrad he felt compelled to try and remove some of that by leaving a "don't want to lynch hydrad" post that also served as a breadcrumb for a claim later.

I'm almost positive it had nothing to do with Haddock's post.  I think I had decided to breadcrumb Hydrad once I got the results.  I don't remember my exact line of thought that caused the order of the posts, but I do remember thinking I'd likely find him scummy without the mitigating effect of my result. 
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2219 on: December 14, 2015, 05:06:18 pm »

Yeah. I just dont see those breadcrumbs as made up

Exactly.  I'm specifically saying the breadcrumbs were not made up, but were made for the eventuality that they could be fakeclaimed on and fallen back on if needed.
I was thinking this, too!

Try thinking better.
It seems realistic for someone like you. And I know this was already discussed, but I think it's possible you didn't breadcrumb and you just looked back for something you did that could potentially be a breadcrumb.

Out of the possibilities this is the more probable, but still less likely than the likelihood of ww just being town and bread crumbing...

Just because something is possible doesn't mean it is probable.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2220 on: December 14, 2015, 05:46:55 pm »

I just reread egork and am not seeing scum. Like, not at all.

I like my haddock vote. Still need to reread teproc
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2221 on: December 14, 2015, 06:23:04 pm »

I just reread egork and am not seeing scum. Like, not at all.

I like my haddock vote. Still need to reread teproc

Reiterating that I found how he responded to the pressure of moving his vote to Hydrad townie. I am guessing you disagree?
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2222 on: December 14, 2015, 07:02:04 pm »

I just reread egork and am not seeing scum. Like, not at all.
You know what? I just had my first full-blown reread of egor since I got on his wagon. And he's not as scummy as I thought he was.  In particular, I remember now that a reason i found him scummy early on was his pushing igu over the bogus scumslip thing. Well SS did the same and was town. So meh.

Still, he reads scummy here and there, just enough I think.
I've become fairly convinced that offtheD1wagon is the place to go, which to me means egor or hydrad. Well I could vote hydrad but that doesn't look like its going to happen.  I do think everyone on egor should have a proper reread of him though; I'm going to bed now but I'd like to properly discuss a possible hydrad lynch tomorrow.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2223 on: December 15, 2015, 12:40:24 am »

Kind of disappointed I don't find egork scummy. I really wanted RR to vote him then I would have hammered real fast. After rereading I don't plan on voting egork.

I was going to reread teproc, but then my parents called. Anyway, I still think yuma should shoot. All you doubters go away.

Shoot, yuma! Shoot!
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 2)
« Reply #2224 on: December 15, 2015, 12:43:31 am »

I will get to teproc and his 300+ posts tomorrow night hopefully. But I do think we should not let this day go on much longer.
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