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[faust]

WW/Faust/RR/Yuma/Ashersky scum team.

Fixed that for you

Fixed.

That's a lot of scum

It's especially bad when the mod is scum.

[Roadrunner7671]

WW/Faust/RR/Yuma/Ashersky scum team.

Fixed that for you

Fixed.

That's a lot of scum

It's especially bad when the mod is scum.

For the two of us, though, it's especially good that the mod is scum.

[iguanaiguana]

If you want to lynch WW/Faust then pick the scummiest and vote for one. Depending on how that players flips I will have a read on you tomorrow.

And maybe the correct course of action will be to lynch the other, but to say that we "absolutely" must lynch the other is a scummy statement. Because is absolves you from any responsibility tomorrow, and if it is another mislynch, will.... as you say put town in an extraordinary behind position where many players will lack full responsibility because the second lynch was a necessity because of the second.

I feel like that argument is going to come from scum. I felt that faust was a bit pre-mature in his analysis that these opinions weren't coming forward (only 24 hours since claims + weekend isn't enough time to see how people are going to react after analyzing the situation)

You got it.

Vote: Faust

Before I posted this, I knew I was going to have an unpopular opinion with how things have gone in the thread up to now. But it felt important to say. To me it feels like we are close to catching scum and it is slipping through our fingers. IMO if one of these players flips town, the chance that the other is scum is much, much higher. The chance that they are both town is really low and has been over represented a lot. And I think that is to town's detriment.

Is it possible for scum to push a double mislynch? Yes. It's also possible for scum to push us away from lynching either because they know that lynching either of them is bad for us. In my view, the second one is more likely because its just really unlikely that the redirection stars aligned perfectly to create these conflicting results.

As for who to vote for, I seriously am torn. I am leaning Faust because I have had a scumread on him, but so many arguments have been made in both directions now that I don't really know what to believe anymore. But, yes, I want an answer and I do not think it is a good idea to go lynch EgorK or some other unrelated player and just ignore this instead.

[2.71828.....]

Iguana is town

[2.71828.....]

So everything I am getting is that most people think either one of {faust, WW} is scum.  Now, I am of the opinion that neither of them are scum and that something messed with results.  This is my attempt to convince you that we should not lynch either faust or WW

Look at the roles they claimed.  Tracker and Tracker/Voyeur.  Pretty great investigative roles.  Scum cannot afford to let them live forever if they are both town.  In fact, scum can't let them live forever if even one of them is town.  Having a town tracker that has a cumulative 3-4 days of results can be deadly to scum.  Same thing for WW's role.  Scum have to make a decision about them.

Does that mean they kill one tonight?  Absolutely not.  But maybe.  I mean, if they are both still alive by Day 4, then either scum is playing a huge gambit with town PRs or at least one of them is scum.  And by that point we will have more results.  More stuff to go on.  Lynching faust or WW today is entirely a gut vote on which you think is scummier.  Which there is nothing wrong with voting your gut.  I do it all the time.  But there is no hard evidence (yet) that either one is scum. 

So basically I am saying leave them alone, and let their roles play out.  I will be waiting eagerly to hear their results from N2

So for now, my lynch pool is {Haddock, Hydrad, Ampharos, Teproc, EgorK, RR}

[yuma]

Does that mean they kill one tonight?  Absolutely not.  But maybe.  I mean, if they are both still alive by Day 4, then either scum is playing a huge gambit with town PRs or at least one of them is scum.  And by that point we will have more results.  More stuff to go on.  Lynching faust or WW today is entirely a gut vote on which you think is scummier.  Which there is nothing wrong with voting your gut.  I do it all the time.  But there is no hard evidence (yet) that either one is scum. 

So basically I am saying leave them alone, and let their roles play out.  I will be waiting eagerly to hear their results from N2

So for now, my lynch pool is {Haddock, Hydrad, Ampharos, Teproc, EgorK, RR}

So much sense here from 2.7. All game long! Except I don't know why he thinks Iguana is town. But hey... maybe I am the one wrong on that one....

[Roadrunner7671]

How did I make it into 2.7's lynch pool?

[Teproc]

The least we talk about who may or not be NKed and why and what we'll do about it, the better.

[2.71828.....]

You can see the timestamps for when these quotes were pulled from, but they are all in order, one after the other. 

The title of this little post is as follows:

"The Evolving Read of RR Concerning Ampharos, Otherwise Known as the 'Yellow Pokemon Guy'"

You know what yellow Pokèmon guy? Let's talk about how you may be scum.

You're the wild card. We don't know how you behave as scum. Wouldn't it be the safe thing to lynch you because we don't know how you behave as scum?

(I'm playing devil's advocate)

okay, vote: Ampharos

great job RR

I did I thing?

What was his slip?

What was it that he said?

No, Awaclus, what was his scum tell?

Vote: Yellow Pokèmon Guy

Just checking in.

I'm no longer so sure about Yellow Pokèmon Guy.

Yep Yuma, I regretted that as soon as I sent it. It portrays me in a very bad light. The posts you made recently just slipped my mind.

And I'm voting for no one. Why? I don't have any scum reads. It might be a good idea to vote to put pressure somewhere, but that doesn't feel great right now.

Now, this is extremely interesting.  First RR opens up as "devil's advocate" proposing how Ampharos could be scum.  Which Ampharos replies to and then a series of votes are sparked.  In relatively quick succession, silverspawn, iguana, and faust all vote for Ampharos.  During this time RR is confused as to how he sparked these votes and then votes for Ampharos himself!  Except the vote doesn't count because it is a "YPG" vote.  Then he retracts and doesn't like his vote (that didn't count) on Ampharos.

Anyway, I know calling scum teams is frowned upon, but I could totally see this as RR and Ampharos being on the same team and then RR goes for a little bit of bussing and BOOM!  People actually listen and vote for his partner and he starts to panic a bit, joins the wagon (not really though), then cools off quickly.

The cooling off happened over a couple days (see the timestamps) but still.  I am ready for a speculative RR vote

vote: RoadRunner

[2.71828.....]

How did I make it into 2.7's lynch pool?

By not being yuma, faust, WW, iguana, or myself

[2.71828.....]

But now we have a lovely little case against you!  So that is fun.

[2.71828.....]

Besides, what kind of game would this be if I didn't find you scummy?

[Roadrunner7671]

But now I'm going hard after Amapharos.

[2.71828.....]

This is very complicated.

I will let Teproc, Faust and WW figure this out, unless someone needs me for something.

I need you to tell me who you think is scum that is not named faust or WW

My reads are so bad, but I still think Amaphoros.

Yep. Very much so

[Roadrunner7671]

This is very complicated.

I will let Teproc, Faust and WW figure this out, unless someone needs me for something.

I need you to tell me who you think is scum that is not named faust or WW

My reads are so bad, but I still think Amaphoros.

Yep. Very much so

So how are we buddying?

[Haddock]

This case would make sense to me if I thought at all that either RR or Ampharos was scum.  Since I don't find either of them scummy, pairing them up doesn't really give too much.

I'm happy leaving WW and faust be here.  I do think it's unlikely that they're both telling the truth, but since we can't be sure which is scum, it might be better to leave it.
If we do lynch one of them I was definitely keener on faust to start with, but his persistence with pushing the WW lynch makes him townier to me.
If WW is scum then his claim has been judged perfectly.  It's just the right amount of janky to sow confusion.  Other than the janky claim my main reason to find him towny is that I find e scummy and WW/e have had their votes in the same place too often for me to think that they can both be scum.

[Witherweaver]

Does anyone actually not believe I targeted Hydrad?  Because that's absurd.

Yes, I don't believe that.

Why would you not believe it?

[faust]

So everything I am getting is that most people think either one of {faust, WW} is scum.  Now, I am of the opinion that neither of them are scum and that something messed with results.  This is my attempt to convince you that we should not lynch either faust or WW

Look at the roles they claimed.  Tracker and Tracker/Voyeur.  Pretty great investigative roles.  Scum cannot afford to let them live forever if they are both town.  In fact, scum can't let them live forever if even one of them is town.  Having a town tracker that has a cumulative 3-4 days of results can be deadly to scum.  Same thing for WW's role.  Scum have to make a decision about them.

This is funny. You wish to let me live because my role is so damn great, but I have no idea how you want to use my role when you completely ignore the results it gives...

And I don't even know where you're coming from with "WW's role is great". WW's (claimed) role is weaksauce. It could help in some rare situations, but most likely it won't.

Does that mean they kill one tonight?  Absolutely not.  But maybe.  I mean, if they are both still alive by Day 4, then either scum is playing a huge gambit with town PRs or at least one of them is scum.  And by that point we will have more results.  More stuff to go on.  Lynching faust or WW today is entirely a gut vote on which you think is scummier.  Which there is nothing wrong with voting your gut.  I do it all the time.  But there is no hard evidence (yet) that either one is scum. 

This is plain bullshit. I have an investigative result. It just does not get much non-gut-votier than this in a mafia game. I really don't know why you are pursuing such a ridiculous argument.

[faust]

Does anyone actually not believe I targeted Hydrad?  Because that's absurd.

Yes, I don't believe that.

Why would you not believe it?

Because I have an investigative result that says otherwise.

[yuma]

Thoughts on mass claim?

We already have claims from:

WW, faust, Hydrad, myself + flips from Awaclus, SS

Leaving none from: Teproc, iguana, RR (flavor), Ampharos, Egork, Haddock

13 player, only 1 NK (kill flavor looks important only flavor only looked like it indicated SS dying from one shot), I am assuming 3 mafia. So that is 10 town players. Normal game tends to mean that around 50% of the roles are VT(ish), so at most 5 roles should have roles...

We already have myself (vig), Awaclus (tree stump), faust (Tracker), and WW (Detector) claiming. So if all of those are true there should maybe be one more, maybe (awaclus' is kinda weak) 2.

But if one or more of those is false we could have two to three more roles claim.

One of the reasons to not claim is the worry that mafia will kill the claimed PRs. Well if faust is town he is already a likely NK target...

So I am kinda leaning toward mass claiming (don't do it just if you agree with me). I was a bit hesitant to bring this up cause this day is turning into another just as long as yesterday, but this is starting to look like a standstill and a mass claim could potentially help us figure out how to correctly break that stand still... I am sure some will automatically disagree with me (Teproc), which is fine, but I think this is a discussion to be had here and now, today. I am not just bringing this up willy, nilly. I think we need it to make sure we get this right...

[faust]

What are you hoping to achieve with a mass claim?

[Teproc]

Thoughts on mass claim?
[...]

 I am sure some will automatically disagree with me (Teproc)

Correctomundo ! Though I do not care for the implications of that "automatically". I have nothing against massclaims, some of my best friends are massclaims ! And I'm not disagreeing with you just because it's you either.

In fact I disagree with pretty much every single point you raised here.
- Yes, day 1 was long. That's not a bad thing. Remember GOP Mafia ? Rethorical of course, you won that game because town wasted their day 1  on a dumb quicklynch (well, not just that obviously but still). Yes, long days make rereads marginally more difficult but they also make them more fruitful. Examples of games with long day 1s : ASoIaF, Dynasty Warriors II : in both cases reread helped pin mafia down (DWII being the most important example here). So I'm a bit sick of everyone complaining about it. Yes, you'll have to work a little. Deal with it.

- However, theory talk is, while necessary, mostly a bad thing. This is not necessary because a massclaim serves very little purpose here, so let's get past it and go back to finding scum.

- If you're going to massclaim, what are you trying to achieve ? Out scum is the obvious example right ? This being a closed setup, that's not going to happen. If two people claim PRs, you're going to look at that and say "well, that's plausible enough..." and bravo, we've outed PRs to no gain. This, in fact, is exactly what happened with WW and faust. We've potentially outed two town PRs to very little avail.

- If any PR had any information that could help resolve the WW/faust thing, they would probably have claimed. Massclaim is not going to make that any clearer.

[Teproc]

Now, as to the actual game. PoE time (hi Voltaire).

Witherweaver => Believe his claim, could be a Mafia Motion Detector possibly. Let's at least see what he gives us tomorrow before lynching him, his likelihood of flipping scum is too low for me right now. Out of my lynchpool.

yuma => Wrong about everything, must be town. Out of my lnychpool.

iguanaiguana => Wrong about everything, must be town. Sounds cheeky but it's true. I don't think scum sees the faust/WW thing and jumps on the mislynch opportuniy, especially relativenewbie!scum. Out of my lynchpool.

Hydrad => Nothing to say about him, except I had a case on him on day 1. Don't remember what it was, but I'll look at that. Very much in.

Roadrunner7671 => Getting less confident, but still unwilling to lynch him, mostly for his day 1 play. Out.

2.71828 => Makes a scummy amount of sense (ie just enough). In.

faust => Townie timing of his claim. Results may be useful. Out.

Ampharos => Obvtown. Reminds me of early silverspawn when he kept getting mislynched.

EgorK => See Hydrad. In.

Haddock => Growing a little less sure, he's in the same area a 2.7, making just enough sense to appear townie. Tentatively in.

That leaves me :
- 2.7
- EgorK
- Hydrad
- Haddock

I'll reread these guys... later, possibly tonight.

[Haddock]

Yeah I don't like the massclaim idea much.  It gains us squat.

Teproc's reads are scarily similar to mine, though my levels of confidence on each one differ slightly.
(and obviously I know I'm town).


I do have an out-there conjecture that's been nagging at me for a while.  Which is that I'm beginning to see some small possibility of a faust/Teproc scum team here.  The interaction is about right.  I don't think this is massively likely - I had a townread on Teproc, but I'm keeping it in the back of my mind as a possibility, since they're two of the most active players.  I don't want to give them a free ride here, they're in fairly solid control of the game atm. 

[yuma]

What are you hoping to achieve with a mass claim?

Not sure. Depends on what we learn.

So I guess what I hope to gain is some sort of knowledge that will allow us to make a better informed decision on who to lynch today.

If there is a surplus of PRs claiming then I would lean toward lynching between WW/faust.

If there isn't a surplus of PRs claiming then I would lean toward not lynching them and lynching elsewhere (probably VT pool, but can't be sure)

It would also help me learn whether or not I want to shoot tonight, to an extent.

I think there is also potential for more coordination in determining whether the PR claims are true or not. There is the NK to consider and we would need to do that (and potential for other blocking or manipulative roles) but there may be ways to get around or through that. I don't know what they are as I don't know the resources we have.