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Author Topic: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Town Wins!)  (Read 323977 times)

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2.71828.....

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1325 on: December 06, 2015, 11:45:06 am »

That case was....well....descriptive more than anything.  It was a gut read case backed up by nothing to note.  A few things:

The Case On 2.7, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Lynch*

[entrance stuff]

Something to get him on the board. Precisely. This whole reread stuff is what alerted me. Because there's nothing there, or to be more precise, there's just enough to pass as townie. From someone who had been away for the first two or three days you'd expect a fresh perspective on things, but e just comes in and comments on stuff everyone's been talking about, says stuff pretty close to what everyone's been saying etc. The two people he comments on the most here are silver and Ampharos, ie the two main "wagons" at that time.

Yeah, when you do a reread you comment on the things that are happening.  You know, like wagons.  I didn't go through and comment on every single post, just what I thought was important.
reads (no particular order)

Town

silverspawn
RR
iguana
yuma
hydrad

meh
witherweaver
Teproc
EgorK
Awaclus
Haddock

scummier
Ampharos
faust

And he tops it off with a reads post that basically looks like the average of everyone's read at the time. We say all the time scum wants to blend in : these posts blend in so much they're basically transparent.

Ok.  Here is the vote count shortly after my reads list.
Vote Count 1.7:

iguanaiguana (2): ss, Hydrad
silverspawn (2): WW, RR
Witherweaver (1): Awaclus
Ampharos (2): faust, 2.7
faust (1): Ampharos
EgorK (2): Haddock, iguana
RR (1): EgorK
Hydrad (2): Teproc, yuma

6 people (you know, half the people who are not me) are voting for people in my "town" section.  2 people (excluding myself) are voting for people in my "scum" section.  Totally trying to blend in with everyone.   

There's very little after that, before :

vote: Awaclus

Exactly where I'd expect scum to be w/ regards to yuma during his absence, especially if yuma is town. He knows yuma is not very likely to be lynched here, but he will probably flip relatively early, so he can capitalize by arguing scum is jumping on the "easy" yuma mislynch. Attacking Awaclus is also never an unpopular position, so there.

This I do agree with to some extent.  Scum had three options when approaching yuma (assuming yuma is town). 
1. Try to push that lynch through
2. Defend him as town then get cred when he flips
3. Ignore the situation

So the question is what is scum more likely to do?  Only two people (WW and myself) really did too much defending of yuma.  We can just look at the wagon for who tried to push the lynch.  Then everyone else is ignore.  Now, not all scum are going to do the same think (I would assume), but which is most likely?  I would argue that mildly defending without saying too much (WW's position) is much scummier than my position.  But I would argue that scum also had at least a representative on option #1.  My argument is that Awaclus is that rep.  I think the way he jumped on is just like scum would do.  However, why maintain the scum read?  Here you go:

The wagon dissipated quickly after yuma came back.  Awaclus maintains his read.  Why?  Because he is scum.  When yuma eventually flips, he is able to maintain the constancy of his read and that he was just town who read the situation wrong.  I mean, not even that, he can defend it basically on principle saying that yuma was playing against his wincon (which I disagree with).  Basically, Awaclus' vote is a policy vote.  Nothing more to it.  Someone "played against their wincon" therefore they are scum. Policy.  I think that is scummy.

Back to vote: ampharos

After Awaclus doesn't pan out as a wagon, but Ampharos still has one.

Scums sure like the yuma lynch. Although the faust vote seems like town who isn't appreciative of yuma's current approach to the game.

"People voting yuma are scum, except for this guy who's not a realistic day 1 lynch"

Uh....sure?  I mean, I posted what I thought.  From the people on yuma's wagon I thought faust read the most townie.


Aka "Look at all this work I'm doing ! Aren't I so townie ?"

The game was slowing down.  Maybe it was just an off day for posting.  But you can check my history.  I do these types of posts.  I think they are useful to gain a metric of how the game is moving along.  I think they are neutral posts and since you are reading me to find evidence as scum, you found it.

Let's do this thing.

Vote: Awaclus

And finally, there's his voting pattern.

#625 : Votes Ampharos (2)
#819: Votes Awaclus (2)
#920: Votes Ampharos (4)
#1244 : Votes Awaclus (4)

Tunneling is a nice position for scum on day 1, because you're less conspicuous. Granted he's expanded his tunneling to "all players starting with an A", but still, voting for only two people is not the sign of a super productive townie. It also helps that Ampharos has consistently been among the top "wagons" all game and Awaclus is always going to be seen as a potential lynch by most people.

TL;DR : 2.7 has been blending, trying very hard to appear as a productive townie while in reality only commenting on stuff everyone else had already commented on and focusing on popular lynch targets. The only time he didn't go with the flow was on yuma, because that wagon had very little chance of actually resulting in a lynch, and he just had to reap the town points and strike the easy targets.

TL;DR (meta edition) : 2.7 is doing a version of what I do when I'm scum.

* No reason, I just watched Strangelove recently. It's pretty great.

Ok, so you have me as scum for
1. My vote pattern
2. Blending in

1. Looking at my voting it doesn't look pretty.  I am never starting a wagon, just following on behind.  Jumping between my scum reads to try to get a lynch.  And you say I am scummy for not voting a larger pattern?  Maybe that is because I missed RVS.  Is that what you use RVS for?  To increase your vote footprint so you aren't caught on a day voting for only one person?  That part makes no sense to me. 

But really, I do look really opportunistic voting on the wagons.  I just really don't (or didn't) have a preference as to who I wanted to lynch.  I am pretty set on Awaclus now after going back over your comments and writing my little "Why Awaclus is Scum" thing in the middle of this.  But sure.

2. This part is totally false.  As you noticed, my reads were not on line with a majority of town when I posted them.  I have been sticking out for sure in my defense of yuma and defense of him shooting.  I brought town back to Ampharos after everyone had basically left that wagon for dead.  I don't see this "blending in" happening a whole lot.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1326 on: December 06, 2015, 11:47:53 am »

This little bit is stuck in the middle of that big long post right before this.  But I really want people to read this.  It is my case on Awaclus

There's very little after that, before :

vote: Awaclus

Exactly where I'd expect scum to be w/ regards to yuma during his absence, especially if yuma is town. He knows yuma is not very likely to be lynched here, but he will probably flip relatively early, so he can capitalize by arguing scum is jumping on the "easy" yuma mislynch. Attacking Awaclus is also never an unpopular position, so there.

This I do agree with to some extent.  Scum had three options when approaching yuma (assuming yuma is town). 
1. Try to push that lynch through
2. Defend him as town then get cred when he flips
3. Ignore the situation

So the question is what is scum more likely to do?  Only two people (WW and myself) really did too much defending of yuma.  We can just look at the wagon for who tried to push the lynch.  Then everyone else is ignore.  Now, not all scum are going to do the same think (I would assume), but which is most likely?  I would argue that mildly defending without saying too much (WW's position) is much scummier than my position.  But I would argue that scum also had at least a representative on option #1.  My argument is that Awaclus is that rep.  I think the way he jumped on is just like scum would do.  However, why maintain the scum read?  Here you go:

The wagon dissipated quickly after yuma came back.  Awaclus maintains his read.  Why?  Because he is scum.  When yuma eventually flips, he is able to maintain the constancy of his read and that he was just town who read the situation wrong.  I mean, not even that, he can defend it basically on principle saying that yuma was playing against his wincon (which I disagree with).  Basically, Awaclus' vote is a policy vote.  Nothing more to it.  Someone "played against their wincon" therefore they are scum. Policy.  I think that is scummy.
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1327 on: December 06, 2015, 04:46:34 pm »

good stuff. would read again.

in fact, I did, since 2.7 posted most of it twice...
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1328 on: December 06, 2015, 04:47:52 pm »

Half the people voting for Awa are townreads for me, and also players with good scumhunting reputations.

Which makes me think maybe I'm going crazy.  So, reread of Awa coming up.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1329 on: December 06, 2015, 05:06:28 pm »

Half the people voting for Awa are townreads for me, and also players with good scumhunting reputations.

Which makes me think maybe I'm going crazy.  So, reread of Awa coming up.

Shouldn't take too long.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1330 on: December 06, 2015, 05:34:18 pm »

People use "gut read" disparagingly, but... there's nothing wrong with that. I've played with e a lot, and I think I'm pretty good at reading him overall, so I trust my gut, yeah.

As for it being backed up by nothing... the only point you succesfully argue against is that your reads lists wasn't that conventional, based on the vote count. I'll admit to that, though I still think it was very much going in the direction discussion was generally going at the time, and maintain that the only time in this game e has gone against the grain was w/ regards to yuma. Relaunching an Ampharos wagon is something that half the players in this game have done at some point (only a slight exaggeration), so that doesn't count.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1331 on: December 06, 2015, 05:36:51 pm »

I'll admit to that, though I still think it was very much going in the direction discussion was generally going at the time, and maintain that the only time in this game e has gone against the grain was w/ regards to yuma.

Yeah, I don't think 'going with the current opinion' is the same as 'going with the current wagons'. I very much felt like both igu and me were off the table at the moment, even though 4 people were still voting for us.

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1332 on: December 06, 2015, 05:45:59 pm »

Took longer than it should have, I got distracted.

#242: I hadn't processed just HOW freaking lurky Awa was early on.  Post #242 was his first?  What the frak?  Anyway, votes ss.  Half-jokingly I think.
#245: Moves to igu when informed that he's put ss at L-1. 
#249: Moves to WW when (wrongly i think) informed that igu was at L-1.
          (Bizarre couple of moves.  Going from SS to igu makes no sense at all to me, since igu and ss were at each other's throats early on.  And then WW; no explanation offered of course.  I guess his confusion is slightly towny here?  Bleh.)
#262: Teproc expresses doubt that Awa accidentally jumped onto the two most popular wagons at random.  Awa passes this off fairly weakly here with "Yeah maybe I went for them unconsciously because they've been discussed a lot."  I dunno.  This is actually a bit scummy to me; I think town!Awa usually waits in the background a bit longer rather than throwing his votes around so much.
#272: Random accusatory post on RR. Casting suspicion for nonexistent reasons.  Scummy.
#319: Theory.
#320: Fluff.
#342: Quotes Amph, trying to explain people's scumread on Amph without actually explaining anything.
#354: States an unreasonable expectation.  Towny!Awa, probably, but easily faked.
#365: Excuses his absence.
#391: Not really a post.  Just quotes an RR post in its entirety without commenting...
#396: Irrelevant.
#426: "I'm not anti-town".
#429: "My meta is pro-town."   Well, we'll agree to disagree on this one.
#693: Big gap here!  Probably after one of our activity flurries.   Annoyed that ss doesn't take him seriously.  Diddums.  This could be scum!Awa trying some emotional manipulation. 
#801: Votes yuma now for "playing against his win con".  This has been talked about.  I don't agree with this, but at that point Awa doing this is neither anti-town nor an alignment tell.
#812: Fluff, basically.
#814: Fluff.
#829: Reiterates his position on people playing against win con.
#877: "Flagrant that yuma is not town".  Sigh...  Awa's inability to consider the possibility that he is wrong is really annoying.  He did this in JK++ (on me) and was scum there.  So this is a slight scumtell, but not that much, it's more of an Awatell.
#990: Cherrypicks examples that fit his narrative.
#1007: We're all wrong about his meta apparently.  Claims that his lurkiness has been a "nothing happening this game" tell, which, just, no.
#1014: Pushes yuma some more.
#1023: Pushes yuma some more.
#1087: Fluff.
#1088: More overconfident crap.  "Yuma is obviously not town". 
#1091: "I can also talk about my meta".  Then doesn't.  Fluff, essentially.
#1238: Pushes yuma some more.
#1248: Pushes yuma some more.
#1258: Pushes yuma some more.  Also some more lovely overconfidence.
#1268: "e might be yuma's partner".  Well, what do you know? He's considering someone other than yuma. 
#1308: Succession of quotes.  Cherrypicking again.
#1311: Meh.

The rest is more win con nonsense.

Well, I don't know why I ever thought he looked super towny.  He's made one post which I see as being explicitly town!Awa in the game.  The rest are either not-a-tell!Awa or outright scummy.

Awa could definitely be scum here.  Then again I think Awa's playstyle will always always look scummy to me. 
Yeah, vote: Awa.  (Still finding e scummy, imagine my vote is on both.)

Maybe I'll reconsider if Awa moves his vote.

2 situations:
1) Awa is scum, pushing yuma for the mislynch.  Whatever, let him vote as he pleases.
2) This is a message for Awa if you are town.  Move your vote.  Get over yourself and accept that yuma is not going to get lynched today.  Pick your 2nd choice candidate.  Suck it up.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1333 on: December 06, 2015, 05:49:31 pm »

Your vote is not on both... just to be clear, since they are the two main wagons, you are making a very clear choice. You'd be happy to lynch both, fine, but still.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1334 on: December 06, 2015, 05:54:19 pm »

Maybe I'll reconsider if Awa moves his vote.

2 situations:
1) Awa is scum, pushing yuma for the mislynch.  Whatever, let him vote as he pleases.
2) This is a message for Awa if you are town.  Move your vote.  Get over yourself and accept that yuma is not going to get lynched today.  Pick your 2nd choice candidate.  Suck it up.

I very much doubt that any-alignment!Awaclus would let himself be blackmailed.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1335 on: December 06, 2015, 05:59:37 pm »

How many votes are on Awaclus?
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1336 on: December 06, 2015, 06:01:00 pm »

How many votes are on Awaclus?

5 (aka L-2)
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1337 on: December 06, 2015, 06:01:11 pm »

Your vote is not on both... just to be clear, since they are the two main wagons, you are making a very clear choice. You'd be happy to lynch both, fine, but still.
Yeah OK, phrase it that way instead.  At the moment I'm choosing Awa because
a) I'm making the point that I've changed my mind about him.
b) He looks like the one more likely to turn into a successful lynch.
c) e looks ever-ever-ever so slightly less scummy in his recent posts, maybe.

I very much doubt that any-alignment!Awaclus would let himself be blackmailed.
It wasn't intended as blackmail, though I guess I can see how it would be seen that way. 

He really does need to move his vote.  A vote on yuma is doing nothing here.
Actually, yuma, same probably goes for you.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1338 on: December 06, 2015, 06:02:31 pm »

How many votes are on Awaclus?

5 (aka L-2)
This may look scummy, but Vote: Awaclus
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1339 on: December 06, 2015, 06:02:47 pm »

          (Bizarre couple of moves.  Going from SS to igu makes no sense at all to me, since igu and ss were at each other's throats early on.  And then WW; no explanation offered of course.  I guess his confusion is slightly towny here?  Bleh.)

I think he had just not read the thread at that point, so that's null

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1340 on: December 06, 2015, 06:03:33 pm »

Your vote is not on both... just to be clear, since they are the two main wagons, you are making a very clear choice. You'd be happy to lynch both, fine, but still.
Yeah OK, phrase it that way instead.  At the moment I'm choosing Awa because
a) I'm making the point that I've changed my mind about him.
b) He looks like the one more likely to turn into a successful lynch.
c) e looks ever-ever-ever so slightly less scummy in his recent posts, maybe.

I very much doubt that any-alignment!Awaclus would let himself be blackmailed.
It wasn't intended as blackmail, though I guess I can see how it would be seen that way. 

He really does need to move his vote.  A vote on yuma is doing nothing here.
Actually, yuma, same probably goes for you.

I thought I was voting him...

vote: awaclus to make sure
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1341 on: December 06, 2015, 06:03:57 pm »

Right, so L-1. A reminder that if someone wants to hammer, they need to announce intent to let Awaclus get a chance to claim/berate us all about not lynching yuma.

PPE : Um, or not.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1342 on: December 06, 2015, 06:04:02 pm »

oh... and hammer
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1343 on: December 06, 2015, 06:04:22 pm »

Seriously yuma ? Do you not read your PPE ? Maybe I'm wrong, I'll double check.
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1344 on: December 06, 2015, 06:04:35 pm »

i didn't get a PPE...
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1345 on: December 06, 2015, 06:04:54 pm »

Wow. yuma has certainly become derphammerguy
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1346 on: December 06, 2015, 06:05:32 pm »

👏👏👏
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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1347 on: December 06, 2015, 06:05:36 pm »

Oh holy crap that was sudden.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1348 on: December 06, 2015, 06:06:21 pm »

I got the e-mail update via my e-mail about haddock's post, went ot respond to it and posted, but didn't get any PPE... maybe RR's post had already gone through at that point?

oh well... what goes around comes around to awaclus is what I say.... but I would have liked it to have been more deliberate on my part.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1349 on: December 06, 2015, 06:06:31 pm »

At this stage, I think yuma has to shoot tonight to clear himself. That was a pretty scummy move.

Well, unless Awaclus flips scum.
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You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did
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