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[Witherweaver]

I don't get it... why are Haddock and WW suddenly towny?

Infuriating, isn't it.

Haddock has struck me as pretty hedgey.  There was one post maybe yesterday that I was going to vote him for, but I didn't for some reason, I think because I didn't want my vote off whomever it was on.

On the other hand, it could just be Haddock's meta

[yuma]

Oh hey...

I just reread my PM and apparently the flavor will be specific enough to show that it was me that killed someone... I want to double check with ash before I state what that flavor will be (I don't want to be modkilled for sharing something from the PM), but I think it can be inferred from my flavor...

That mitigates the question of whether or not others will be able to tell whether it was actually me that killed or another second party or something...

[yuma]

I just thought of a point against shooting, or at least publicly announcing.  If scum has any kind of redirection, bus driving, whatever, they can essentially control Yuma's kill.

I thought about that too, and I don't think it's the case. The ability is presumably not targeted, so it shouldn't be able to be redirected.

Why would it not be targeted?

oh and the reason I was looking in my PM was that I think from another setup of answers ash gave me there isn't a "targeting" I think. I can ask again, but I am not sure ash will directly answer that question... I wouldn't if I were the mod.

[2.71828.....]

I can just imaging ashersky in his mod qt hoping that Yuma will shoot.

really? really?

because I can very vividly imagine ash in this game, giving a speech about how we are all crazy to consider letting an UNCONFIRMED source RANDOMLY shoot someone. We are basically allowing someone to kill whoever he wants, and even if he is town, it is still a random kill that has a 75% chance of hitting town.

I can almost smell his frustration!

I am thinking more he designed the game, wants to see his riles played out. Most likely largely influenced by my experience in the Dune speccy and the lamentations over andrewisfttw. Speaking of which, asking the mod questions about your rile is a thing.

[2.71828.....]

asking the mod questions about your rile* is a thing.

Role*

[2.71828.....]

Granted, Dune was RMM and this is normal

[yuma]

Right. I will ask and have already asked questions but the questions I am asking have less to do with my role specifically and more to do with game mechanics and how it interacts with other roles... Which aren't generally available for players to ask about.

[EgorK]

e, you advance argument that role is designed to be used. What you are missing is that role designed to be not used sometimes as well. It seems to me that this is role for town to use if town is on bad spot. It increases volatility of whole game, and increasing volatility good when you are behind

[Teproc]

And something I stumbled upon:

Good. Am I correct in assuming you are back yuma ?

If so, let's move on

vote: 2.7

He's trying very, very hard to be reasonable. Everything he says is carefully measured... of course some play this way as town too, and 2.7 certainly isn't the most impulsive player out there, but he's not that measured, not that I can remembered.

You previously said your yuma vote wasn't policy. Why are you backing off as soon as he reappears?

I kind of explained this when I unvoted. Basically, I thought enough time had passed that yuma's "I'll post to aviod getting prodded and lynch anyone at L-1" could not be dismissed as "Well, he'll come back soon". I thought it was getting to the point where it was looking like a long-term thing, and I could not see scenarios where town!yuma would do this long term.

As it turns out, yuma started playing again. I was voting for him solely because of his refusal to participate, so I unvoted. It wasn't in the policy vote in that I believed his refusal to participate indicated that he was scum, but as soon as it became clear that it wasn't long term, it became null, and yuma is townie for other reasons (claim mostly).

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.13:

Ampharos (4): Hydrad, 2.7, faust, ss
EgorK (2): iguana, Haddock
yuma (1): Awaclus
2.7 (3): EgorK, Teproc, WW
ss (1): yuma

Not Voting (2): RR, Ampharos

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December 8 at 9:00 a.m. forum time.

[Haddock]

Basically what e said.  It's not like OMG HE'S SCUM but there is a good possibility - I like to look for scum where you currently sit: in the zone of nothing too dramatic, nothing too out of the ordinary, and reasonable accord with general consensus.

Haddock has struck me as pretty hedgey.  There was one post maybe yesterday that I was going to vote him for,

I guess I have been pretty middle of the line, because as has been noted by other people, everyone is seeming pretty similar this game.  But I did take at least one strong stance, which is that on SS.  I'm not saying it's the best case ever, there's a lot of gut in there, but I really do find SS scummy.  I'm only not voting him because noone else was, so there was no point.  Now that yuma is there, I could vote: ss.  Let's see how this goes.

I could get on either e or Ampharos if necessary to get a lynch through (preference for e probably because fewer people who I see as scummy are on his wagon).  Right now though, there's still time.


Unrelatedly, I wanted to say that I agree completely with this:

experience in a certain area is a really shitty metric for who's likely right in an argument that takes place in this area. this is especially true if both persons discussing are reasonably intelligent and both know a little bit about the subject. In fact it's not only not a strong indication, it's almost entirely worthless.

the probability discussion is a great example. I am snapping here because this comment you made bothers me

I do feel a bit bad; at one point in that discussion I definitely tried to pull rank-by-experience.  But it's crap, really.  I do have a lot of maths experience, but not in the probability area at all - I probably have no more explicit probability experience than anyone who's taken any sort of sciencey bachelor's degree.  I think I was just trying to take a shortcut to the end of the discussion.
In any case, I agree with SS; people with some background and some thought will often be right when people with experience are not. 
I maintain that my answer was right, given the assumptions I made.  I just didn't realise I was making any assumptions or that they didn't really fit the situation.

[faust]

Oh hey...

I just reread my PM and apparently the flavor will be specific enough to show that it was me that killed someone... I want to double check with ash before I state what that flavor will be (I don't want to be modkilled for sharing something from the PM), but I think it can be inferred from my flavor...

That mitigates the question of whether or not others will be able to tell whether it was actually me that killed or another second party or something...

Well, if this is true, then shooting just got a whole lot better, yes?

[Teproc]

Oh hey...

I just reread my PM and apparently the flavor will be specific enough to show that it was me that killed someone... I want to double check with ash before I state what that flavor will be (I don't want to be modkilled for sharing something from the PM), but I think it can be inferred from my flavor...

That mitigates the question of whether or not others will be able to tell whether it was actually me that killed or another second party or something...

Well, if this is true, then shooting just got a whole lot better, yes?

It does. Now we're looking at a high likelihood of killing town to confirm that a player who is probably town is not lying about his role, which won't make him an IC because of the SK possibility. Clearly the best use of a PR ever, come collect your mafia awards right now.

[Awaclus]

Now we're looking at a high likelihood of killing town to confirm that a player who is probably town is not lying about his role,

a player who is probably town

That's a funny way to spell "can't possibly be town".

[faust]

Vote: Awaclus

[faust]

It does. Now we're looking at a high likelihood of killing town to confirm that a player who is probably town is not lying about his role, which won't make him an IC because of the SK possibility. Clearly the best use of a PR ever, come collect your mafia awards right now.

No need to get snappy. If yuma is confirmed flavorwise and that flavor fits Hulk, I will consider him an IC. We all should consider him an IC. I don't see Hulk as Serial Killer. And on the offchance that he is a SK, well we jut gave mafia a good reason to shoot the SK. So that's good.

[Teproc]

Fair point. It looks like it could confirm yuma as Hulk, and therefore as almost an IC. That's valuable, sure. Still don't think it's worth it though, not at this point. The upgrade from "likely town" to "quasi-IC" isn't valuable enough to me.

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Awaclus

Ooh I like this part!

Vote: Awaclus

[iguanaiguana]

Vote: Awaclus

Ooh I like this part!

Vote: Awaclus

Vote: Awaclus

I've already given my reasons. They haven't changed, they've just been aggravated.

[2.71828.....]

Let's do this thing.

Vote: Awaclus

[ashersky]

Vote Count 1.14:

Ampharos (2): Hydrad, ss
yuma (1): Awaclus
2.7 (2): EgorK, Teproc
ss (2): yuma, Haddock
Awaclus (4): faust, WW, iguana, 2.7

Not Voting (2): RR, Ampharos

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December 8 at 9:00 a.m. forum time.

[2.71828.....]

you missed iguana's vote

[ashersky]

you missed iguana's vote

Thank you.

[Awaclus]

Let's do this thing.

Vote: Awaclus

Let's not do this thing. There's really no reason to lynch anyone but yuma.

[Witherweaver]

Vote: Awaclus