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Author Topic: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Town Wins!)  (Read 321933 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #200 on: November 26, 2015, 06:01:13 pm »

Well maybe you're not; I thought at first you were reading it differently.  Anyway, I was referring to what Ash said in his speccy in the game that just ended.
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EgorK

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #201 on: November 26, 2015, 06:03:41 pm »

You're not making any sense. First you are talking about <b> and about the probability of that being a scumslip, but now you define it as a scumslip...

<b> is "appears to scumslip" in my post. Actual scumslip is if done because posting recently in mafia qt

Your argument would make sense if not for the fact that scum is actually cautious and thus less likely to <b>. You say (1-p) is "not indicative of alignment", but you exclude the possiblity of it being indicative of being town.

It may be so or not, I don't know. Namely it may be so for you. I, for example, always use buttons at the top to bold things. Stats you provided suggests otherwise for random person, however small sample that is.

I just really do not understand your "This not how math works" comment
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #202 on: November 26, 2015, 06:05:16 pm »

Interesting; this is a meta-based vote?

it was sort of a semi RVS vote with a controversial reason to provoke emotions of some kind or another. which I now realize may be a bit unfair, but that was the idea.

@silver : What's weird about this game ? If anything is weird, is how fast it did get going, so... what ?

well it's going but we're not talking about alignments. first we talked about scum slip theory and then about maths.

Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #203 on: November 26, 2015, 06:09:11 pm »

You were kind of a big driver in talking about scumslip theory...
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #204 on: November 26, 2015, 06:10:58 pm »

You were kind of a big driver in talking about scumslip theory...

I know, but not intentionally

iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #205 on: November 26, 2015, 06:12:06 pm »

Vote: iguana

While we assign non zero probability of it being scumslip iguana has more than average probability being scum. What else he did had not dissuaded me from this assesment

No, this is not the way math works.

This is exactly how math works. We have  a probability p for average player being scum. Someone apperas to scumslip. Suppose with probability q he actually scumslips, while with probabilty 1-q it is not telling of alignment (i. e. he is scum with probability p). Then total probability of being scum is q+(1-q)p = p+q(1-p) > p if q > 0

Also your data, despite not really many cases, shows 1/4 probability of being scum after scum slip which is higher then normal being scum probability

What does "scumslip" even mean in this context?

For the sake of this argument we may limit it to using <b> to bold a vote

I'd appreciate to get more from iguana here

Okay!

So forum survivor is the first forum game that I ever played on here. I only decided to do mafia after I already met some people from Forum survivor that also play mafia games.

In our first forum survivor challenge, even before we knew what tribes we were on, we played a game of Two Rooms/One Bomber. In that game, the fourteen players got put into two separate "rooms" AKA quicktopics with seven players each in them. I won't belabor you with all the rules or the outcome, but basically in every round, we had to vote for a leader using the same voting style as in mafia, except that instead of voting for someone to lynch we were voting for a room leader, who would determine the people that would be sent to the other room at the end of the round. All of those votes had to be in bold text and since it was in a QT, you used <b> to do it. Additionally, we shared our colors and roles with other players in whispers to each other in bold using <b>. The game was seven rounds long, so I ended up voting for a room leader seven times, and I think I shared my color with every other player in the game. Through the whole process of playing that challenge in survivor, I learned to bold using <b> and now I still frequently make the mistake.

The only game I can quote is RMM28, so here are the instances I could find:

I'm sorry I meant I no longer believed WW/Xerxes was possible.

At any rate it hardly matters at all. If Faust is scum, we will lose because I was the only one who refused to blindly follow after the pied piper.

If faust is town, we likely still lose because he has made a mistake of some kind.

Either way my only vindication will be my death and my flip.

So go ahead and kill me you cowards.

<b> Vote: Iguana </b>

Here, I end up changing my vote to Faust, so I guess you could argue I was only pretending to vote for myself on purpose, but really I just screwed up and before I corrected it, I decided that voting Faust instead was marginally better than just giving up the game.

From Faust's QT:

"Yeah Hide behind Ampharos"

Laughing at it because I have made the opposite mistake so many times : P

This is after the game, and what I'm doing here is trying to make reference to the fact that Faust made the reverse mistake once in his traitor QT. The irony of course is that because I just lifted the quote without altering it, the "bolding mistake" doesn't show up and it parses correctly in the thread. At any rate, the reason I reference his making the opposite mistake is because after bolding wrong in the main threads, its funny to me that someone else would bold wrong in a quicktopic.

So what's really frustrating to me is that I have one finished game and two flips, both as town, and in all of my other games I have made this mistake. So I can kinda understand Teproc voting for me here because he's never played with me before, and TBH I kinda understand EgorK too because he may not have noticed me make the mistake in RMM28.

What I really don't understand though is Silver acting like he just doesn't remember this happening just a few weeks ago. I mean, maybe he forgot at first, but seriously? Even after Haddock brought it up, you still don't remember?

That's just too much to swallow and makes you look scummy to me.

Vote: Silverspawn

PPE: 9
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #206 on: November 26, 2015, 06:12:34 pm »

You're not making any sense. First you are talking about <b> and about the probability of that being a scumslip, but now you define it as a scumslip...

<b> is "appears to scumslip" in my post. Actual scumslip is if done because posting recently in mafia qt

Your argument would make sense if not for the fact that scum is actually cautious and thus less likely to <b>. You say (1-p) is "not indicative of alignment", but you exclude the possiblity of it being indicative of being town.

It may be so or not, I don't know. Namely it may be so for you. I, for example, always use buttons at the top to bold things. Stats you provided suggests otherwise for random person, however small sample that is.

I just really do not understand your "This not how math works" comment
I thought you meant something else from what you did.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #207 on: November 26, 2015, 06:16:50 pm »

Looks like my vote there was L-2
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #208 on: November 26, 2015, 06:25:05 pm »

That's just too much to swallow and makes you look scummy to me.

er... this doesn't make a lot of sense. you're basically suggesting that I remembered it but pretended not to. This is the kind of stuff scum would never do.

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #209 on: November 26, 2015, 06:26:32 pm »

I very vaguely remember something now, but I could not say whether the scum slip was 1% or 90% of your case

it's probably because of your avatar. if it looked different, I might remember it.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #210 on: November 26, 2015, 06:27:59 pm »

That's just too much to swallow and makes you look scummy to me.

er... this doesn't make a lot of sense. you're basically suggesting that I remembered it but pretended not to. This is the kind of stuff scum would never do.

>.< Can't believe this is coming from the guy who just tried to get me lynched for bolding incorrectly.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

EgorK

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #211 on: November 26, 2015, 06:28:53 pm »

Ok, I am persuaded

Vote: Hydrad. His last post is really weird, in scum Hydrad weird way
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EgorK

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #212 on: November 26, 2015, 06:30:11 pm »

I do not find Silver scummy based on this interaction. Pushing even mediocre cases at this stage is better than RVS
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #213 on: November 26, 2015, 06:32:19 pm »

I do not find Silver scummy based on this interaction. Pushing even mediocre cases at this stage is better than RVS

Agreed. But that is why I am pushing for his mediocre case. I don't have anything else to go on right now.

Why does Hydrad's comment look scummy to you?
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #214 on: November 26, 2015, 06:35:14 pm »

Also, which post of Hydrad's?

Also, I'm totally not used to you doing anything other than lurking, talking about jetlag, or saying "I'm the doctor!"

I like this new scumhunting version of you!
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #215 on: November 26, 2015, 06:39:29 pm »

I do not find Silver scummy based on this interaction. Pushing even mediocre cases at this stage is better than RVS

Agreed. But that is why I am pushing for his mediocre case. I don't have anything else to go on right now.

Why does Hydrad's comment look scummy to you?

You agree that silver is not scummy?
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #216 on: November 26, 2015, 06:41:42 pm »

>.< Can't believe this is coming from the guy who just tried to get me lynched for bolding incorrectly.

I don't get this. How are the two things connected?

Bolding incorrectly is an unintentional slip-up. I will admit that your provided examples and your history with forum mafia basically invalidate the original case, but... well that's that.

What I just said was, scum would not go 'I will pretend not to remember this thing so I have the opportunity to push a dishonest and mediocre case on someone'. That's not the way scum thinks. It's not something scum is likely to do.

If you disagree with that, then... well you're wrong.

Hydrad

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #217 on: November 26, 2015, 06:42:30 pm »

Ok, I am persuaded

Vote: Hydrad. His last post is really weird, in scum Hydrad weird way

fair enough i guess?
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #218 on: November 26, 2015, 06:43:11 pm »

ironically/amusingly, I am getting scum vibes from igu for his recent posts

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #219 on: November 26, 2015, 06:43:39 pm »

Hydrad

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #220 on: November 26, 2015, 06:43:42 pm »


@silver : What's weird about this game ? If anything is weird, is how fast it did get going, so... what ?

well it's going but we're not talking about alignments. first we talked about scum slip theory and then about maths.

we had a bit of the talk about yuma also! thats kinda alignmentish
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #221 on: November 26, 2015, 06:45:02 pm »

Also, slip, not tell.

right

it's towny because scum would be afraid of it. I guess. Mostly I wanted to tell Hydrad that he was wrong.

fair enough i guess?

fair enough i guess?

Is this some kind of joke? Because it's not funny.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #222 on: November 26, 2015, 06:45:52 pm »

No, huh, wait, I am majorly confused.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #223 on: November 26, 2015, 06:46:48 pm »

>.< Can't believe this is coming from the guy who just tried to get me lynched for bolding incorrectly.

I don't get this. How are the two things connected?

Bolding incorrectly is an unintentional slip-up. I will admit that your provided examples and your history with forum mafia basically invalidate the original case, but... well that's that.

What I just said was, scum would not go 'I will pretend not to remember this thing so I have the opportunity to push a dishonest and mediocre case on someone'. That's not the way scum thinks. It's not something scum is likely to do.

If you disagree with that, then... well you're wrong.

Well, you pushed it. I told you you had done it before, asked you to go look, you didn't go look, ignored that comment, talked about maths, and just proceeded to act like this mistake has not ever happened before. And it seemed scummy to me. Now you've dropped it, so IDK. I guess we have very similar feelings towards each other right now, but unlike you I don't have anyone else that looks scummy to vote for instead.

Suggestions?
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #224 on: November 26, 2015, 06:47:06 pm »

Is this some kind of joke? Because it's not funny.

I actually thought it was hilarious.

But I tend to find of Hydrad's posts funny.
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