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Author Topic: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Town Wins!)  (Read 321985 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #175 on: November 26, 2015, 03:47:57 pm »

Vote: ss instead.

I think for some people it could be considered a slight scum tell. I think for iguana I can't consider it a scum tell anymore.

PPE:3

"I disagree with you, therefore you're scum!"

It was more of a I felt like you were trying to stretch the scumslip argument further then you normally would I guess. But then the next post you like gave up so I don't know anymore.

pushing scum tell arguments is generally towny, because you get a lot of poorly reasoned flag for it without achieving much, even if you're right.

Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #176 on: November 26, 2015, 03:50:51 pm »

This is all-and-all quite a bad argument.  Teproc's point is okay, I give it a 'meh'.  Silver is lynchable.

Agree with all of this.

so.

let's just forget the scum slip thing for now.

ahha it was my vote pressure that did it. I'm so good at this game.

As a hater of fun, I still cannot help but smile at this. Well done.
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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #177 on: November 26, 2015, 03:52:22 pm »

Vote: ss instead.

I think for some people it could be considered a slight scum tell. I think for iguana I can't consider it a scum tell anymore.

PPE:3

"I disagree with you, therefore you're scum!"

It was more of a I felt like you were trying to stretch the scumslip argument further then you normally would I guess. But then the next post you like gave up so I don't know anymore.

pushing scum tell arguments is generally towny, because you get a lot of poorly reasoned flag for it without achieving much, even if you're right.

How is that townie ?

Also, slip, not tell.
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #178 on: November 26, 2015, 03:58:24 pm »

Also, slip, not tell.

right

it's towny because scum would be afraid of it. I guess. Mostly I wanted to tell Hydrad that he was wrong.

EgorK

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #179 on: November 26, 2015, 04:07:26 pm »

Vote: iguana

While we assign non zero probability of it being scumslip iguana has more than average probability being scum. What else he did had not dissuaded me from this assesment

No, this is not the way math works.

This is exactly how math works. We have  a probability p for average player being scum. Someone apperas to scumslip. Suppose with probability q he actually scumslips, while with probabilty 1-q it is not telling of alignment (i. e. he is scum with probability p). Then total probability of being scum is q+(1-q)p = p+q(1-p) > p if q > 0

Also your data, despite not really many cases, shows 1/4 probability of being scum after scum slip which is higher then normal being scum probability
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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #180 on: November 26, 2015, 04:11:22 pm »

Pretty sure using math is scummy, so by that logic we should all be voting for you.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #181 on: November 26, 2015, 04:12:46 pm »

Vote: iguana

While we assign non zero probability of it being scumslip iguana has more than average probability being scum. What else he did had not dissuaded me from this assesment

No, this is not the way math works.

This is exactly how math works. We have  a probability p for average player being scum. Someone apperas to scumslip. Suppose with probability q he actually scumslips, while with probabilty 1-q it is not telling of alignment (i. e. he is scum with probability p). Then total probability of being scum is q+(1-q)p = p+q(1-p) > p if q > 0

Also your data, despite not really many cases, shows 1/4 probability of being scum after scum slip which is higher then normal being scum probability

What does "scumslip" even mean in this context?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #182 on: November 26, 2015, 04:22:50 pm »

Well, look, either it was a scumslip or it wasn't, so two choices. Ashersky can verify that there is therefore a 50% chance it was a scumslip.  Oh, I guess we all should be voting for Iguana.
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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #183 on: November 26, 2015, 04:23:38 pm »

Well, look, either it was a scumslip or it wasn't, so two choices. Ashersky can verify that there is therefore a 50% chance it was a scumslip.  Oh, I guess we all should be voting for Iguana.

Isn't math great ?
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #184 on: November 26, 2015, 04:25:10 pm »

it's so weird that this is a thing here too, because I used to have a friend irl who tried to make the exact same argument

Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #185 on: November 26, 2015, 04:26:42 pm »

Well, look, either it was a scumslip or it wasn't, so two choices. Ashersky can verify that there is therefore a 50% chance it was a scumslip.  Oh, I guess we all should be voting for Iguana.

Isn't math great ?

Reflecting on that, I believe there is something wrong with your premise. ash would never assess the likeliness of a scumslip occurring at anything less than 75%.
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #186 on: November 26, 2015, 04:34:15 pm »

Doubt what?  What are you talking about?

that he got autolynched for it

Silver, just in case you were in the game and on my wagon where I immediately got 5 votes for this as town and then got quicklynched, why don't you go look for it?

To everyone, I make this mistake virtually every time I post on my phone. And yes as Faust said it is because before I started playing mafia I played an excessive amount of forum survivor, which is almost all in quicktopics, and made a habit of bolding that way.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

iguanaiguana

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #187 on: November 26, 2015, 04:39:58 pm »

I also know I did this more than once in RMM28. i will find instances once I can get to a computer but geez guys I have made this mistakenas town at least 3 or 4 times by now. If I get lynched for this on day 1 twice in a row I am going to be honestly disappointed in F.DS mafia.
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

Hydrad

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #188 on: November 26, 2015, 04:48:26 pm »

Also, slip, not tell.

right

it's towny because scum would be afraid of it. I guess. Mostly I wanted to tell Hydrad that he was wrong.

fair enough i guess?
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

EgorK

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #189 on: November 26, 2015, 04:52:52 pm »

Vote: iguana

While we assign non zero probability of it being scumslip iguana has more than average probability being scum. What else he did had not dissuaded me from this assesment

No, this is not the way math works.

This is exactly how math works. We have  a probability p for average player being scum. Someone apperas to scumslip. Suppose with probability q he actually scumslips, while with probabilty 1-q it is not telling of alignment (i. e. he is scum with probability p). Then total probability of being scum is q+(1-q)p = p+q(1-p) > p if q > 0

Also your data, despite not really many cases, shows 1/4 probability of being scum after scum slip which is higher then normal being scum probability

What does "scumslip" even mean in this context?

For the sake of this argument we may limit it to using <b> to bold a vote

I'd appreciate to get more from iguana here
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #190 on: November 26, 2015, 04:59:45 pm »

You're not making any sense. First you are talking about <b> and about the probability of that being a scumslip, but now you define it as a scumslip...
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EgorK

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #191 on: November 26, 2015, 05:03:17 pm »

You're not making any sense. First you are talking about <b> and about the probability of that being a scumslip, but now you define it as a scumslip...

<b> is "appears to scumslip" in my post. Actual scumslip is if done because posting recently in mafia qt
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #192 on: November 26, 2015, 05:24:13 pm »

this game is weird

vote: faust for not getting things moving

Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #193 on: November 26, 2015, 05:30:30 pm »

Well, look, either it was a scumslip or it wasn't, so two choices. Ashersky can verify that there is therefore a 50% chance it was a scumslip.  Oh, I guess we all should be voting for Iguana.

Isn't math great ?

Reflecting on that, I believe there is something wrong with your premise. ash would never assess the likeliness of a scumslip occurring at anything less than 75%.

You're missing the premise of the joke.
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ashersky

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #194 on: November 26, 2015, 05:34:02 pm »

Vote Count 1.2:

iguanaiguana (3): Teproc, faust, EgorK
silverspawn (3): yuma, WW, Hydrad
RR (1): iguanaiguana
Faust (1): silverspawn

Not Voting (5): RR, 2.7, Ampharos, Awaclus, Haddock

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 ends on December 8 at 9:00 a.m. forum time.
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2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #195 on: November 26, 2015, 05:37:40 pm »

this game is weird

vote: faust for not getting things moving

Interesting; this is a meta-based vote?
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #196 on: November 26, 2015, 05:46:51 pm »

this game is weird

vote: faust for not getting things moving

Vote: silverspawn for not getting things moving.

I am seriously sick of this.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #197 on: November 26, 2015, 05:48:57 pm »

this game is weird

vote: faust for not getting things moving

Vote: silverspawn for not getting things moving.

I am seriously sick of this.

Pretty sure if you voted for him for this, then he got things moving.  Checkmate!
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #198 on: November 26, 2015, 05:53:33 pm »

You're not making any sense. First you are talking about <b> and about the probability of that being a scumslip, but now you define it as a scumslip...

<b> is "appears to scumslip" in my post. Actual scumslip is if done because posting recently in mafia qt

Your argument would make sense if not for the fact that scum is actually cautious and thus less likely to <b>. You say (1-p) is "not indicative of alignment", but you exclude the possiblity of it being indicative of being town.
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Teproc

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #199 on: November 26, 2015, 05:57:48 pm »

Well, look, either it was a scumslip or it wasn't, so two choices. Ashersky can verify that there is therefore a 50% chance it was a scumslip.  Oh, I guess we all should be voting for Iguana.

Isn't math great ?

Reflecting on that, I believe there is something wrong with your premise. ash would never assess the likeliness of a scumslip occurring at anything less than 75%.

You're missing the premise of the joke.

Am I ?

@silver : What's weird about this game ? If anything is weird, is how fast it did get going, so... what ?
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