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Author Topic: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Town Wins!)  (Read 321895 times)

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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #150 on: November 26, 2015, 02:56:53 pm »

This type of scumip has been proven again and again to not indicate alignment.

do you have any evidence for this?

Yes. For starters, as ash said once... synapses in my brain. If you really want to be persistent about this I can pull some stuff up. But honestly... that isnt' going to happen until Monday at the absolute earliest.... It will take some digging and I just don't have time for that.
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #151 on: November 26, 2015, 02:59:46 pm »

It's not indicative of anything other than "this player has posted in a QT recently".

right, I agree with that, and it's a useful way of putting it. And having posted in a QT recently does make him more likely to be scum.

If iguana hadn't ever posted in a QT before, or in the last week, then sure. I might agree with you. But we have proven knowledge that he has very recently been in a handful of QTs. So yeah. I don't buy it....
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #152 on: November 26, 2015, 03:02:55 pm »

I doubt that. Show me where this happened.

no, that would take forever. and I'm certain, so it's not necessary. just trust me on this.

the conversation went something like

- s: {scum slip argument}
- f: *this* is relevant (link to the scum slip debate)
- s: you really only argue that scum slips are extremely rare, not that they don't exist. ash warned us in fish mafia that we shouldn't use <> in the thread
- f: yeah they're rare, so rare that they basically never happen. if someone was a new player, then sure, he could scum slip. but for someone who works with QT's all the time like me, it's a null-tell

well - igu is comparatively new.

Hydrad

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #153 on: November 26, 2015, 03:04:37 pm »

woo I'm here!

Vote: e

anyways Its a good thing yuma got that role instead of me... I'd totally just roll the dice every night if I got it and hope for the best. I think it would be super fun.

As for believing the claim and stuff. I believe it for now. currently I can't think of as many good reasons why scum!yuma would claim it. but then maybe scum!yuma knew i would think that! noooo.

but ya I believe the claim for now.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #154 on: November 26, 2015, 03:06:20 pm »

Man. I thought maybe I could try and use the search function on this forum to search for <b> but the search function here is just soooo bad.

Like completely and totally useless, so yeah, this will have to wait. Hopefully when Monday roles around there will be other things to talk about, but if it is I will certainly devote some time to this and be happy to use it as a reference in future games where this exact scenario is sure to come up.
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #155 on: November 26, 2015, 03:06:44 pm »

I doubt that. Show me where this happened.

no, that would take forever. and I'm certain, so it's not necessary. just trust me on this.

the conversation went something like

- s: {scum slip argument}
- f: *this* is relevant (link to the scum slip debate)
- s: you really only argue that scum slips are extremely rare, not that they don't exist. ash warned us in fish mafia that we shouldn't use <> in the thread
- f: yeah they're rare, so rare that they basically never happen. if someone was a new player, then sure, he could scum slip. but for someone who works with QT's all the time like me, it's a null-tell

well - igu is comparatively new.

I think I was scum in that game.
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #156 on: November 26, 2015, 03:07:48 pm »

I think I was scum in that game.

Ha!
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #157 on: November 26, 2015, 03:07:55 pm »

I doubt that. Show me where this happened.

no, that would take forever. and I'm certain, so it's not necessary. just trust me on this.

the conversation went something like

- s: {scum slip argument}
- f: *this* is relevant (link to the scum slip debate)
- s: you really only argue that scum slips are extremely rare, not that they don't exist. ash warned us in fish mafia that we shouldn't use <> in the thread
- f: yeah they're rare, so rare that they basically never happen. if someone was a new player, then sure, he could scum slip. but for someone who works with QT's all the time like me, it's a null-tell

well - igu is comparatively new.

I think I was scum in that game.

you were. that's what I was referring to when I said that 'the last time I accused someone of scumslipping, he was scum'.

Although I asked you afterwards and you said that you wouldn't say it was a scum slip.

EgorK

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #158 on: November 26, 2015, 03:14:55 pm »

Vote: iguana

While we assign non zero probability of it being scumslip iguana has more than average probability being scum. What else he did had not dissuaded me from this assesment
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #159 on: November 26, 2015, 03:20:23 pm »

here is an example for you. I tried hard to remember the specific game that I was thinking of... wibbly wobbly mafia...

I believe that this is the first game where it happened and where there was a big deal about it...

Voltgloss was town. Shraeye the guy accusing him is scum...

I argued heavily against it as a SK... It was pretty interesting and worth reading and, in my opinion, is a great example of the folly of relying on these sort of slips.

link starts where shraeye makes the case against him:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9010.msg280192#msg280192
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #160 on: November 26, 2015, 03:24:17 pm »

well, I am saying that ig's slip makes him more likely to be scum with about the strength of a strong to average day 1 case (aka about 10%). so... 1 counter example isn't really useful.

it also heavily depends on who does it.

yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #161 on: November 26, 2015, 03:25:08 pm »

here is an example for you. I tried hard to remember the specific game that I was thinking of... wibbly wobbly mafia...

I believe that this is the first game where it happened and where there was a big deal about it...

Voltgloss was town. Shraeye the guy accusing him is scum...

I argued heavily against it as a SK... It was pretty interesting and worth reading and, in my opinion, is a great example of the folly of relying on these sort of slips.

link starts where shraeye makes the case against him:

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=9010.msg280192#msg280192

for clarity shraeye makes a case about a few points and then underscores it with the scumslip argument at the very bottom, but it was the part that was taken most seriously by the rest of the town and was what ultimatley led to his lynch.
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yuma

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #162 on: November 26, 2015, 03:27:09 pm »

well, I am saying that ig's slip makes him more likely to be scum with about the strength of a strong to average day 1 case (aka about 10%). so... 1 counter example isn't really useful.

it also heavily depends on who does it.

Sure I am not saying 1 counter example is enough. Like I said, I don't have time to find a whole bunch of them. But I do think it is still worth reading. If this is still an issue I'll to do a more exhaustive search, but this was the one that stuck out to me.

And where are you making up these 10% numbers? What do you have to back that up since you are so interested in backing things up these days.

And sure it depends on who does it. Iguana has been posting in QTs, survivor and speccies. This is known. So why aren't you taking that into consideration?
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #163 on: November 26, 2015, 03:28:21 pm »

This is all-and-all quite a bad argument.  Teproc's point is okay, I give it a 'meh'.  Silver is lynchable. 
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Witherweaver

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #164 on: November 26, 2015, 03:29:22 pm »

Vote: iguana

While we assign non zero probability of it being scumslip iguana has more than average probability being scum. What else he did had not dissuaded me from this assesment


What do you mean 'what else he did'?  And what did he do to be assigned more than average probability of being scum?
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faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #165 on: November 26, 2015, 03:35:55 pm »

Going through print pages searching works.

Bolding errors:
RMM2 - Voltgloss, was town
RMM3 - Captain_Frisk, was scum
RMM4 - Galria, was mod
RMM10 - yuma, was town
RMM10 - Eevee, was town
M10 - ashersky, was town
M24 - Twistedarcher, was town
M29 - Archetype, was mod
M31 - ashersky, was mod
M31 - yuma, was mod
M35 - ashersky, was scum
M35 - Jimmmmm, was town

I stopped at around M40. What I can tell from this is that <b>bolding</b> is more of a mod tell than it is a scum tell. Maybe iguana is secretly the mod?

PPE 7
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #166 on: November 26, 2015, 03:38:57 pm »

well, I am saying that ig's slip makes him more likely to be scum with about the strength of a strong to average day 1 case (aka about 10%). so... 1 counter example isn't really useful.

it also heavily depends on who does it.

Sure I am not saying 1 counter example is enough. Like I said, I don't have time to find a whole bunch of them. But I do think it is still worth reading. If this is still an issue I'll to do a more exhaustive search, but this was the one that stuck out to me.

And where are you making up these 10% numbers? What do you have to back that up since you are so interested in backing things up these days.

And sure it depends on who does it. Iguana has been posting in QTs, survivor and speccies. This is known. So why aren't you taking that into consideration?

uh... I can't back that up. When being vague, I have a preference of using vague numbers over of vague words. As in, instead of saying 'a little bit' I can say '10%'. I think that even an imprecise number is more useful than a term.

Quote
And sure it depends on who does it. Iguana has been posting in QTs, survivor and speccies. This is known. So why aren't you taking that into consideration?

because having posted in a QT a second before posting in the forum is a more likely cause than having posted in the QT at some point. And if he has day chat, then that's the simplest explanation.

If scum doesn't have day chat, that makes the argument quite a bit weaker. But I'll stand by it being reasonable evidence for the chance that they do.


this list is incomplete. you didn't include yourself.

faust

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #167 on: November 26, 2015, 03:39:16 pm »

Vote: iguana

While we assign non zero probability of it being scumslip iguana has more than average probability being scum. What else he did had not dissuaded me from this assesment

No, this is not the way math works.
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silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #168 on: November 26, 2015, 03:39:53 pm »

Hydrad

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #169 on: November 26, 2015, 03:40:45 pm »

Vote: ss instead.

I think for some people it could be considered a slight scum tell. I think for iguana I can't consider it a scum tell anymore.

PPE:3
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #170 on: November 26, 2015, 03:41:13 pm »

so.

let's just forget the scum slip thing for now.

Hydrad

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #171 on: November 26, 2015, 03:41:59 pm »

so.

let's just forget the scum slip thing for now.

ahha it was my vote pressure that did it. I'm so good at this game.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #172 on: November 26, 2015, 03:42:20 pm »

Vote: ss instead.

I think for some people it could be considered a slight scum tell. I think for iguana I can't consider it a scum tell anymore.

PPE:3

"I disagree with you, therefore you're scum!"

silverspawn

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #173 on: November 26, 2015, 03:43:03 pm »

ahha it was my vote pressure that did it. I'm so good at this game.

your vote was in PPE

and I didn't concede anything. I said let us stop talking about it because talking about it isn't particularly helpful.

Hydrad

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Re: M72: Marvel Heroes Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #174 on: November 26, 2015, 03:44:12 pm »

Vote: ss instead.

I think for some people it could be considered a slight scum tell. I think for iguana I can't consider it a scum tell anymore.

PPE:3

"I disagree with you, therefore you're scum!"

It was more of a I felt like you were trying to stretch the scumslip argument further then you normally would I guess. But then the next post you like gave up so I don't know anymore.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.
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