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Author Topic: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?  (Read 3321 times)

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popsofctown

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Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« on: October 23, 2015, 04:36:32 pm »
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Chapel, Village, Woodcutter, Workshop, Remodel, Smithy, Council Room, Laboratory, Mine, Adventurer
Played this one yesterday.  I know in the theoretical "first game" engine, there is a workshop, and it's correct to skip it unless there are 3 or more players.  But that board doesn't have Chapel, and it seems like Chapel makes a card that adds 4 coins in 1 card kinda good, ish?  I bought a single workshop here, and I was wondering if people would agree that 1 workshop is optimal on boards like this, or if I'm crazy.

Even though I didn't totally plan on it, I ended up doing Workshop gains Silver -> Mine the silver into gold -> Remodel the Gold into Province.  Which seems kinda good, though I think possibly a strategy that just draws a huge deck, plays a bunch of gold, and buys two Provinces using Woodcutter could also be good (I was using Woodcutter too, to Province/Duchy the same turn as the Remodel thingy.)  But anyway, I'm not quite as fascinated by which final engine form you want here, I'm curious about the workshop thing, because I have heard some people say "only get workshop if you're doing X", where X doesn't seem to be here, but it seems to me like you really want to open Workshop/Chapel here.
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popsofctown

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2015, 04:36:58 pm »
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Crap, I forgot we have a game reports subforum, someone move it over there if possible.
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DG

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2015, 05:17:01 pm »
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I would expect to get a workshop here but not immediately. There are actually quite a lot of options including remodeling the chapel to get the workshop.
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ehunt

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2015, 09:26:09 pm »
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id open workshop/chapel, although i see the argument for remodel/chapel. (for: gets the chapel out of your deck, odds are something like 40% of getting to ultra-thin deck a turn faster and with the same number of extra cards, remodel is really good late. against: you're really unhappy with remodel/copper/copper/copper/copper on shuffle two, you can workshop for a remodel if you want its late-game benefits). I don't see any other opening as logical; drawing silver with chapel on shuffle two is just as bad on this board as drawing workshop with it.
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Titandrake

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2015, 09:37:20 pm »
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I would probably open Workshop/Chapel. You definitely want a Remodel at some point, but I like gaining Villages ASAP here. Remodel/Chapel will ramp up to $5 faster, but with Smithy on the board I don't think hitting $5 is as important.

I know in the theoretical "first game" engine, there is a workshop, and it's correct to skip it unless there are 3 or more players.

You still get Workshop in the first game engine. Geronimoo didn't include it in his article, but michaeljb showed it gives better results.
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-Stef-

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2015, 06:52:36 am »
+5

I open Chapel/Village.

The joke is that it isn't a joke.
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AdamH

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2015, 07:08:16 pm »
+1

I open Chapel/Village.

The joke is that it isn't a joke.

Workshop, Remodel, and Silver all have to be better openers than Village here, right? Please enlighten me.
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ehunt

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2015, 08:05:45 pm »
+2

I open Chapel/Village.

The joke is that it isn't a joke.

Workshop, Remodel, and Silver all have to be better openers than Village here, right? Please enlighten me.

my guess: village is a decent safety play. it cuts the small chance that you'll miss your chapel in half. if you pick up a workshop on the second shuffle (which is almost certain), you're in the exact same place as if you had opened workshop/chapel and workshopped a village on the second shuffle.

basically, village/chapel risk-reduces over workshop/chapel. it gains huge in the instance that chapel is the 11th card in your shuffle (and village isn't the 12th), and loses a little in the (more likely) case that the workshop/chapel opener manages to pick up two 3-cost cards on the second shuffle. not sure how to weigh those.

(for simplicity this analysis was written with workshop instead of remodel but similar, slightly more complicated arguments, apply.)
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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2015, 06:56:21 am »
+3

I open Chapel/Village.

The joke is that it isn't a joke.

Workshop, Remodel, and Silver all have to be better openers than Village here, right? Please enlighten me.

I wrote a long post about it, then deleted it. I wish I had a convincing theory but I don't. I think it's reasonably close.
If you're a better player than your opponent, Chapel/Village certainly isn't unreasonable.
The upside is that you can get to gain-and-play more quickly than most other openings on reasonable draws. The downside is off course that your best case scenario is a lot worse.

If you want we can play the first 7 turns of this set a dozen times and keep track of who is ahead how many times.
If you really want an answer we'd have to play with the simulator, but that requires a whole lot of scenario's to cover and hands to evaluate. I'm certainly not going to trust the simulator to get a grasp on this kingdom after turn 7.
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AdamH

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #9 on: October 25, 2015, 12:44:13 pm »
0

I open Chapel/Village.

The joke is that it isn't a joke.

Workshop, Remodel, and Silver all have to be better openers than Village here, right? Please enlighten me.

I wrote a long post about it, then deleted it. I wish I had a convincing theory but I don't. I think it's reasonably close.
If you're a better player than your opponent, Chapel/Village certainly isn't unreasonable.
The upside is that you can get to gain-and-play more quickly than most other openings on reasonable draws. The downside is off course that your best case scenario is a lot worse.

If you want we can play the first 7 turns of this set a dozen times and keep track of who is ahead how many times.
If you really want an answer we'd have to play with the simulator, but that requires a whole lot of scenario's to cover and hands to evaluate. I'm certainly not going to trust the simulator to get a grasp on this kingdom after turn 7.

OK I guess it's not crazy. I wouldn't open with it, but I'm not convinced that it's wrong.

I'm not opposed to doing this with you, I just don't know when or how it would happen. Maybe if we play each other next round of the F.DS championship we could play this board 6 (or maybe even 7!!) times and be tied to our openings? Yeah? That's totally a good idea!
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terminalCopper

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #10 on: October 25, 2015, 01:10:55 pm »
+12

Let me chime in with some numbers ...

There are three scenarios in which the decision Chapel/Workshop vs. Chapel/Village changes significantly the situation after the second shuffle:

1.) Chapel misses the shuffle because of choosing workshop
2.) Workshop and chapel collide before the shuffle, thus, if it was village instead, you could trash one more card.
3.) You get an extra component because of choosing workshop

Now the stats:

1.) The risk of missing the shuffle with chapel/village is 1/11, but 1/6 with workshop. The difference is 7.6%.
2.) The chance of colliding is 30.3 %.

3.) is more complicated:
It happens if you draw your workshop in T1/2, without chapel, but with at least three coppers, which is equivalent to drawing it with zero or one estate.
Chance of having workshop without chapel before the shuffle: 10/12 * 7/11 = 53%
Chance of having zero estates with workshop: (7 choose 4)/(10 choose 4) = 1/6
Chance of having one estate with workshop:  (7 choose 3)* (3 choose 1) / (10 choose 4) = 0.5

Total chance of case 3: 0.53 * (1/6 + 0.5) = 35.3 %


tl; dr:

Village is far better in 7.6%, it trashes one more card in 30.3%, and workshop gets one more component in 35.3% of all cases.

I still donít know what is better, but I can see why it is close ...
« Last Edit: October 25, 2015, 01:43:00 pm by terminalCopper »
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popsofctown

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2015, 09:53:24 am »
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Stef, how many Workshops are you going for with the Village opening? 

It seems like it doesn't make sense to buy a Village first if you plan to buy Silver at any point in the game.  But if the plan is to just Workshop into everything then it makes sense to me.
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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2015, 11:16:25 am »
+1

Let me chime in with some numbers ...

Nothing wrong with your numbers, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Not that you're claiming it did, but ok :)
I don't know how important these things actually are. In the order I think they're significant:

1. When analyzing these kind of decisions we somehow always assume optimal play from both players. But in reality on a Chapel board I just pray I'm not too far behind on turn 5, and if I'm not I think I have a reasonable shot at the game.
2. The Village/Chapel opening leaves (probably) only 1 bad card for turn 5, while the Workshop/Chapel opening probably leaves 2.
3. Both openings might draw Chapel t3 and gain some stuff on t4. Your optimal choice in the Chapel/Workshop deck could depend on what you trashed on turn 3. I think in the Chapel/Village opening you just always want a Workshop.

Stef, how many Workshops are you going for with the Village opening? 

It seems like it doesn't make sense to buy a Village first if you plan to buy Silver at any point in the game.  But if the plan is to just Workshop into everything then it makes sense to me.
Probably exactly 1 Workshop. If my opponent completely ignores the Village pile I may take another, but in any realistic scenario I don't think I can support a 2nd.
I'm probably already playing with some Smithies, as they're much easier to gain than Laboratories, certainly a Remodel, and probably a Mine and a +buy card at some point.

Village first does not imply Silver later does not make sense. Village first is because trashing quickly is of the utmost importance in a game where you can easily gain cards midturn.
Silver later is because buying a card with money doesn't require an action, and you need Golds anyway if you ever want to win this game.
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Pikanto

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Re: Do you buy workshop in this kingdom?
« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2015, 05:55:58 am »
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On boards like this, whenever i see chapel and Laboratory, i want to go for this 1 chapel, 2 Labs, 1 Silver and 2 Golds kind of deck.
So i'd open chapel / silver, or - best case - chapel / Laboratory here.
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