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Author Topic: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Game Over!)  (Read 136567 times)

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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #975 on: October 28, 2015, 08:02:51 pm »

Okay, time to beg for my life.

I am sorry, everyone. I let you all down. Whatever you do to me I probably deserve, even though I am 100% a VT.

If you are too blind to see that, I don't blame you.
I don't really understand this post.

And damn, yuma really had me going for a while.
I am absolutely exhausted. However, I'll do my best to be active.

What we have left is: 1 Mafia, 1 SK, 1 Cop, 4 VTs.
It's what, D3 now? Is there any reason the cop shouldn't claim at this point?

That'll at the least narrow it down to 2 scum in 6--which is pretty good in my opinion. Certainly worth it since the cop is useless as long as the SK is alive; they're more useful as an IC at this point.
Kinda fowls up my reads since yuma was lying. I'm gonna take some time to reread. For now, vote: Hydrad. I feel fairly certain he's scum. I'm gonna have to hear more from him.

Ichimaru Gin

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #976 on: October 28, 2015, 08:20:32 pm »

Reread of Hydrad (20 posts total).

#61 RVS votes me.
#78 RVS? votes faust
#141 Makes a joke about sheeping faust
#336 Apologizes for lack of activity I think, then unvotes faust.
#337 He thinks RR is town
#338 Votes Ashersky. Notable.
#340 Responding to faust telling him if he's going to vote someone because he can't read them, he should vote for Awaclus
#350 Answering a question from RR
#377 Asks what Morgrim7 was like
#386 States he thinks Jimmmmm is usually lurky.
#431 He's excited about the gkrieg wagon
#432 Votes grkieg. This reads somewhat half-hearted to me.
#443 Switches to voting faust based on yuma's case.
#550 Says he would lynch: faust, gkrieg, haddock, and ss.
#554 Still has a townread on RR because he thinks his play is difficult to fake.
#555 I don't entirely understand this one.

And that's it for D1.
D2:
#707 Votes haddock and makes a joke about the SK. I find this troublesome.
#752 He thinks WW is town. And he agrees with RR that it's hard to post real content.
#885 "He's here" he doesn't want to lynch yuma because he thinks he's town because ??? He says had he been present, he would have believed Yuma's claim to be the SK.
#886 But he's willing to vote him anyway!

And that's it. I've covered every single one of Hydrad's posts; I'm not moving my vote. This doesn't read like scummy-town-Hydrad.
This reads like scum!Hydrad lurking and posting essentially nothing the entire game.

Ichimaru Gin

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #977 on: October 28, 2015, 08:23:48 pm »

Most of the active players are dead. Please let's not have this game stall out.

Hydrad

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #978 on: October 28, 2015, 08:24:42 pm »

I'm here!

And hey I was super wrong. Yuma's scary... I'll keep that in mind.

I also support a cop claim? I think? even if hes found 2 VTs thats good for us. I'd only really keep quiet if everyone hes checking keeps dying. That would be sad.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Hydrad

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #979 on: October 28, 2015, 08:26:56 pm »

see you should also enjoy playing with me! It doesn't take forever to reread me. Thats my gift to you guys.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Hydrad

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #980 on: October 28, 2015, 08:27:20 pm »

oh ya.

Vote: Haddock

I still find him scummy.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #981 on: October 28, 2015, 08:28:51 pm »

Hey! No one hates me for my honest mistake! <3

Vote: Haddock
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gkrieg13

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #982 on: October 28, 2015, 08:30:06 pm »

I also support the cop claiming.  It is too bad we lost our vig.  I'm gonna reread stuff, but probably won't get to it until tomorrow.  I think we should probably aim to lynch the remaining mafioso.  He should be easy enough to find with the interactions with yuma and ash.
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #983 on: October 29, 2015, 06:01:09 am »

Hey! No one hates me for my honest mistake! <3
Vote: Haddock
Sigh... I'm really running out of patience with you, RR.  Given how catastrophically wrong you were about yuma, you might want to actually THINK about who you vote for, rather than just falling back on a vote that you've been sticking with since the very beginning, with no real reasoning.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #984 on: October 29, 2015, 06:39:51 am »

Hey! No one hates me for my honest mistake! <3
Vote: Haddock
Sigh... I'm really running out of patience with you, RR.  Given how catastrophically wrong you were about yuma, you might want to actually THINK about who you vote for, rather than just falling back on a vote that you've been sticking with since the very beginning, with no real reasoning.
Is that a threat?
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #985 on: October 29, 2015, 06:46:06 am »

Is that a threat?
? No.

It's a suggestion.

What could I threaten you with, anyway?
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #986 on: October 29, 2015, 06:53:17 am »

Is that a threat?
? No.

It's a suggestion.

What could I threaten you with, anyway?
You could NK me. My vote stands.

Faust wanted to off you, he died.
WW wanted to off you, he died.
I want to off you, I guess I'm gonna die.
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #987 on: October 29, 2015, 08:16:04 am »

You could NK me. My vote stands.

Faust wanted to off you, he died.
WW wanted to off you, he died.
I want to off you, I guess I'm gonna die.
So you think scum!me would be stupid enough to NK people who had found me scummy?  Surely scum avoids killing people who vocally find them scummy, precisely because of this.

In any case, analysing kills seems pretty weak in this game.  It's impossible to tell who was killed by the mafia and who was killed by the SK.  (And to some extent who was killed by the vig, though looking at kill counts it looks like he didn't do much)
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #988 on: October 29, 2015, 08:31:03 am »

So you think scum!me would be stupid enough to NK people who had found me scummy?  Surely scum avoids killing people who vocally find them scummy, precisely because of this.

Actually no. Well, scum might avoid that, but if they do, it's almost certainly going to be a wasted effort because nobody will ever pay any attention to it.
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #989 on: October 29, 2015, 08:42:44 am »

nobody will ever pay any attention to it.
You're saying nobody ever lynches somebody because the NKs make them look suspicious?
I think that's what you're saying.
If so, well Roadrunner can't have it both ways.  Either the NKs are a reason to lynch someone, in which case scum would try to avoid NKs that make them look suspicious, or NKs are not a reason to lynch someone.  Either way...

I should point out that although our position looks good we're actually very nearly at mislynch and lose here.  If we mislynch, then unless we get lucky with the NKs there will be 2 scum and 2 town left tomorrow.  Which is an unwinnable scenario.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #990 on: October 29, 2015, 08:55:21 am »

nobody will ever pay any attention to it.
You're saying nobody ever lynches somebody because the NKs make them look suspicious?
I think that's what you're saying.
If so, well Roadrunner can't have it both ways.  Either the NKs are a reason to lynch someone, in which case scum would try to avoid NKs that make them look suspicious, or NKs are not a reason to lynch someone.  Either way...

I should point out that although our position looks good we're actually very nearly at mislynch and lose here.  If we mislynch, then unless we get lucky with the NKs there will be 2 scum and 2 town left tomorrow.  Which is an unwinnable scenario.

Well, people can get lynched because the NKs make them look suspicious, but that has less to do with reads and more to do with being on-wagon or off-wagon. For instance, if the scum NKs on-wagon after a mislynch, the off-wagons look more suspicious than they normally would. Very late in the game (like in 2v1) the reads might play some role in NK analysis too, but not really this early.

2 scum 2 town would be unwinnable if the scum were on the same team, but they're not. It's still hard to win of course, but not impossible.
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Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #991 on: October 29, 2015, 08:59:08 am »

Also, while it's certainly possible that we end up in 2v1v1 if we mislynch, it's actually a tiny bit more likely that at least one scum hits the other scum or that they both hit the same townie.
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Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #992 on: October 29, 2015, 09:01:34 am »

In 2v1v1, the odds of town winning the game are 11%.
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Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #993 on: October 29, 2015, 09:09:17 am »

In other words, we're pretty far from MyLo here. I think the cop should probably claim even if he doesn't have anything relevant to share, though; it seems like the extra odds of hitting scum today would be worth more than the possible utility of a cop later, and a cop claim also helps the scum hit each other if they want to do that, or it might lead to both of them targeting the cop.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #994 on: October 29, 2015, 09:11:45 am »

Ok I'll claim. I don't know why I thought I could wait and have someone else claim, seeing as that would never happen.

im the cop. Unfortunately I targeted Faust N1 and then obviously was blocked last night.
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pacovf

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Night 2)
« Reply #995 on: October 29, 2015, 09:56:37 am »

Vote Count 3.1

Hydrad (1): Ichimaru Gin
Haddock (2): Hydrad, Roadrunner7671

Not Voting (4): gkrieg13, Haddock, Awaclus, Chairs

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

D3 ends at Tuesday 11/4 at 7 pm forum time.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2015, 09:57:58 am by Twistedarcher »
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iguanaiguana

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #996 on: October 29, 2015, 10:58:44 am »

/tag
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Point iguana. Not that points really matter with a result, but still.
Igu is town or trying the hardest he ever has as scum.

chairs

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #997 on: October 29, 2015, 11:05:07 am »

Interesting.

Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #998 on: October 29, 2015, 11:06:23 am »

In 2v1v1, the odds of town winning the game are 11%.
Yeah sorry, it didn't occur to me in that situation that there's a possibility the scum will kill each other. 
Forget what I said then.

OK, so assuming noone wants to counterclaim, we have our IC.  gkrieg, what are your reads on people?  I think it'll be good to have some stated reads out there that we know come from a town source.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 3)
« Reply #999 on: October 29, 2015, 11:06:40 am »

Interesting.
...
Care to elaborate? :P
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87
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