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Author Topic: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Game Over!)  (Read 136555 times)

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gkrieg13

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #825 on: October 24, 2015, 04:17:06 pm »

Well that's interesting.  Definitely yuma should be the lynch today.  We should use the whole day for discussion and to figure out what yuma wants to claim.

PPE: oh yes I'm saying something.  I think I'm already voting for yuma?
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gkrieg13

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #826 on: October 24, 2015, 04:20:07 pm »

The switch mechanic is weird without the SK because instead of PRs, we get ICs, because our PRs can just claim, and barring a counterclaim, we know they are not lying.  That only works for 2 people though.  Doesn't seem like a bad idea to just lynch yuma today.
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #827 on: October 24, 2015, 04:30:31 pm »

Six people scum watching. Something gonna say something?
Sorry yeah I was just catching up.  This is a weird turn of events. 

I think we just talk some more here.  Until deadline approaches, we can essentially treat today as if it's an extension of tomorrow's deadline, and use the time to try to catch some more scum. 

I'm going to have a more careful reread and see what I think of everyone's reaction to this whole business.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Witherweaver

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #828 on: October 24, 2015, 04:39:03 pm »

Yeah. So please tell me the town narrative for not lynching yuma today, cause I don't see it.
Do you think Awaclus is scum?

Yuma probably should be lynched today.  I, unfortunately, think that Awaclus is town.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #829 on: October 24, 2015, 05:00:09 pm »

Yeah. So please tell me the town narrative for not lynching yuma today, cause I don't see it.
Do you think Awaclus is scum?

Yuma probably should be lynched today.  I, unfortunately, think that Awaclus is town.

I also think Awa is town this game.
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chairs

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #830 on: October 24, 2015, 05:04:54 pm »

Okay, so the question is basically "is the downside of town!awaclus being NK'd greater than the upside of scum!awaclus being NK'd?".  My gut on this was "probably not", EXCEPT then I noticed this:

We're at 10 alive. If we let yuma live into the night and lynch somebody else, we probably end up with 2 x NK again. this would put us at 7 alive Tomorrow, which is generally preferable to an even number of living players. Since we can just lynch yuma Tomorrow... it might be worth doing this.

Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #831 on: October 24, 2015, 05:15:15 pm »

Since we can just lynch yuma Tomorrow... it might be worth doing this.
There's a 50/50 (maybe better than 50/50, psychology) chance yuma won't survive the night anyway.  There's some switch nonsense, but the vig must surely kill yuma.  Am I right in saying that the vig's NK and the scum NKs all happen together?

It may be worth mentioning that Awa's dying anyway at this point.  We've all announced he's basically an IC, there's no way mafia will let him live.

So it may be there that's not much downside to letting yuma live.  Awa's dead anyway, yuma dying in the night is fairly likely.  If we can get some decent scumreads, maybe it's worth going for it?  As long as we don't lynch the vig, we should be OK.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

chairs

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #832 on: October 24, 2015, 05:22:59 pm »

TBH my big "we should lynch yuma" argument is that I think the last time we tried to do "leave the SK alive" as Town, we ended up in a Town-can't-win position.

yuma

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #833 on: October 24, 2015, 05:30:14 pm »

Vote: yuma

i mean I suppose I could try and be convinced to use my shot elsewhere... but then you would have to trust me to use it on that person and not on awaclus. And I can't guarantee that... But I could try to guarantee it.

Well, you're clearly not playing towards your win con, so there's absolutely no reason at all to trust you on anything.

My win con is dead and gone. Like was there ever a chance that I wasn't going to be lynched today/tomorrow or the next day?

I guess maybe a super slim chance that I could some how get out of this, lynch mafia today and then lynch the other mafia tomorrow and then you would be looking for me as the SK (and then I somehow survive that... along with PR PoE) but what are the chances of that happening?

My win con died when my scum hunting on ash was wrong... tough luck. onto the next game...
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yuma

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #834 on: October 24, 2015, 05:30:41 pm »

Yuma want to claim who you shot last night?

no. i should have shot awaclus though.
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #835 on: October 24, 2015, 05:32:36 pm »

TBH my big "we should lynch yuma" argument is that I think the last time we tried to do "leave the SK alive" as Town, we ended up in a Town-can't-win position.
Can I ask what the context was?  Cos I could go either way here.  The way I see it is that lynching yuma is a solid bet, obviously good, but not automatically game-winning.  Whereas if we take the risk and lynch someone we think is mafia, a hit would basically outright win us the game.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #836 on: October 24, 2015, 05:46:02 pm »

No way we're not lynching someone who isn't playing towards the win con they claimed. Either he's lying about being the SK, or he's doing stuff completely arbitrarily instead of playing the game. In both cases, we absolutely can't make any plans involving him staying alive and doing or not doing something, because if he's mafia, it will obviously not work out the way town intends, and if he's town or SK, he does not have any purpose in this game, and thus, his actions won't follow any kind of logic and cannot be predicted.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #837 on: October 24, 2015, 05:47:48 pm »

No way we're not lynching someone who isn't playing towards the win con they claimed. Either he's lying about being the SK, or he's doing stuff completely arbitrarily instead of playing the game. In both cases, we absolutely can't make any plans involving him staying alive and doing or not doing something, because if he's mafia, it will obviously not work out the way town intends, and if he's town or SK, he does not have any purpose in this game, and thus, his actions won't follow any kind of logic and cannot be predicted.
What purpose do I serve in this game?
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Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #838 on: October 24, 2015, 05:50:12 pm »

No way we're not lynching someone who isn't playing towards the win con they claimed. Either he's lying about being the SK, or he's doing stuff completely arbitrarily instead of playing the game. In both cases, we absolutely can't make any plans involving him staying alive and doing or not doing something, because if he's mafia, it will obviously not work out the way town intends, and if he's town or SK, he does not have any purpose in this game, and thus, his actions won't follow any kind of logic and cannot be predicted.
What purpose do I serve in this game?

You're presumably trying to win it.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #839 on: October 24, 2015, 06:03:38 pm »

No way we're not lynching someone who isn't playing towards the win con they claimed. Either he's lying about being the SK, or he's doing stuff completely arbitrarily instead of playing the game. In both cases, we absolutely can't make any plans involving him staying alive and doing or not doing something, because if he's mafia, it will obviously not work out the way town intends, and if he's town or SK, he does not have any purpose in this game, and thus, his actions won't follow any kind of logic and cannot be predicted.
What purpose do I serve in this game?

You're presumably trying to win it.
Good point. Now we just need WW to vote for Yuma.
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #840 on: October 24, 2015, 06:10:48 pm »

Look, does anyone support the idea of gambling?  I still think the upside of a successful gamble here might be worth the risk.  But if no-one agrees with me, I'll just hammer.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #841 on: October 24, 2015, 06:13:41 pm »

Look, does anyone support the idea of gambling?  I still think the upside of a successful gamble here might be worth the risk.  But if no-one agrees with me, I'll just hammer.
Think about it like this: if we don't lynch Yuma, we are going to lynch you.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #842 on: October 24, 2015, 06:16:13 pm »

Look, does anyone support the idea of gambling?  I still think the upside of a successful gamble here might be worth the risk.  But if no-one agrees with me, I'll just hammer.
Think about it like this: if we don't lynch Yuma, we are going to lynch you.

Agreed here.
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Awaclus

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #843 on: October 24, 2015, 06:17:39 pm »

Look, does anyone support the idea of gambling?  I still think the upside of a successful gamble here might be worth the risk.  But if no-one agrees with me, I'll just hammer.

Taking risks is good when you're losing, bad when you're winning. Even when the expectations of the outcome are, on average, slightly better than going for the more reliable plan. It's D2 and we've already found two scum, we don't have to take the risk.
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gkrieg13

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #844 on: October 24, 2015, 06:19:39 pm »

Plus replacing two PRs with two ICs won't be too bad for us at this point.
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Haddock

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #845 on: October 24, 2015, 06:24:21 pm »

OK, anything from the others currently on yuma?
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

yuma

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #846 on: October 24, 2015, 06:34:35 pm »

OK, anything from the others currently on yuma?

You mean other than me obviously not being the SK...

I mean why would I even claim that if I were the SK

I am town and claimed SK to see if I could get any sort of a reaction from the real SK before dying. So that my death would at least serve a purpose. I had hoped there would be more discussion and all of the players would participate in it. Jimmmm in particular has been obviously absent despite being online during this... So it wasn't as useful as I had hoped.

I still don't anticipate living. Lynching me is the move I would do if I were in your shoes. But still there will be something for people to go back and think about potentially after I am lynched and if/when the mafia are lynched and the SK hunting begins.

Right now I would put awaclus at the forefront of the SK likely pile. I don't really know on the mafia..., but probably WW/haddock and if not them then ichi/hydrad or chairs.

So those are my reads. If you let me live I'll try to be more useful, but I don't think that is going to happen knowing f.ds meta culture.
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #847 on: October 24, 2015, 06:46:21 pm »

OK, anything from the others currently on yuma?

You mean other than me obviously not being the SK...

I mean why would I even claim that if I were the SK

I am town and claimed SK to see if I could get any sort of a reaction from the real SK before dying. So that my death would at least serve a purpose. I had hoped there would be more discussion and all of the players would participate in it. Jimmmm in particular has been obviously absent despite being online during this... So it wasn't as useful as I had hoped.

I still don't anticipate living. Lynching me is the move I would do if I were in your shoes. But still there will be something for people to go back and think about potentially after I am lynched and if/when the mafia are lynched and the SK hunting begins.

Right now I would put awaclus at the forefront of the SK likely pile. I don't really know on the mafia..., but probably WW/haddock and if not them then ichi/hydrad or chairs.

So those are my reads. If you let me live I'll try to be more useful, but I don't think that is going to happen knowing f.ds meta culture.
Hate to enforce 'f.ds meta culture,' but burn him at the stake?
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Roadrunner7671

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #848 on: October 24, 2015, 06:46:30 pm »

Stake!*
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yuma

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Re: M70: Switch Mafia 2 (Day 2)
« Reply #849 on: October 24, 2015, 06:47:35 pm »

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