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[silverspawn]

I can't write flavor for this, sorry.

Final Vote Count Day 4

chairs (4): ashersky, gkrieg13, yuma, Awaclus

Not Voting (3): UmbrageOfSnow, Jimmmmm, chairs

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.

[silverspawn]

chairs has been lynched. He was Twilight Sparkle, a Vanilla Townie.

The mafia team of asherksy, gkrieg13, and Awaclus wins ostensibly flawlessly.

[Jimmmmm]

 

[Witherweaver]

Hey maybe people should listen to me!

Though, admittedly, I went off Awaclus and onto Yuma. 

[Jimmmmm]

yuma, we had it in us! We could have done it!

[Jimmmmm]

Well I feel somewhat validated at least.

[gkrieg13]

Yay we won!

[gkrieg13]

Really we won by lynching anyone without UoS here.  If chairs hadn't worked out I thought it would have been fun to lead the charge to lynch ash.

[Witherweaver]

It's never not wrong to lynch Awaclus.  Never.

[Witherweaver]

It's never not wrong to lynch Awaclus.  Never.

Er, never not right.

[silverspawn]

mvp for this game goes to Awaclus. I agree that his playstyle was extremely anti-town, making it extremely pro-scum, alas a great help in favor of his alignment, and thus mvp worthy. He made town's progress crash and burn.

[gkrieg13]

also yuma was right in the end

[Jimmmmm]

also yuma was right in the end

yuma voted for chairs in the end.

[Witherweaver]

mvp for this game goes to Awaclus. I agree that his playstyle was extremely anti-town, making it extremely pro-scum, alas a great help in favor of his alignment, and thus mvp worthy. He made town's progress crash and burn.

Scum MVP should go to town for refusing to lynch Awaclus.

[gkrieg13]

also yuma was right in the end

yuma voted for chairs in the end.

yuma was right near the end but not at the very end

[faust]

Oh wow. I was completely wrong about yuma/Awaclus.

Well done scum! I want to read your QT now.

[silverspawn]

Now, as of me being the blatantly honest person that I am, I can't hide the fact that I'm pretty disappointment in town's performance this game, overall. I really don't think that scum actually played well, and I think town could and should have won this game, mainly due to two reasons.

Firstly and most importantly:
 

Everyone in thread is doing everything wrong, right? They need 3 M's (given the UB flipped), so it should be DBMMMX (X is anything). We know that two of our letters are D and B (there could be other possibilities maybe, but assuming this will give us an upper bound and should be really close to the actual probability anyway), so we're looking for the probability that 3 out of 4 letters are M. Each M is a 1/10 chance, so this gives us 0.1*0.1*0.1*1*4, so 4/1000 or 1/250. This has to be low enough to just assume ash and gkrieg are scum.

The probability of getting DBMMMX should be 0.05*0.1^4 (if we counted with permutations) so for combinations it's 0.05*0.1^4*120=0.0006. However, we know it's at least DBXXXX, which has a probability of 0.05*0.1*30=0.15, so the probability of DBMMMX given DBXXXX should be 0.0006/(0.15+0.0006)=0.003984. For some reason that came out really close to but not exactly the same as what I got when I did it the other way, so now I'm not confident I did either one right. The 120 is 6!/3! (the number of distinguishable permutations of DBMMMX), and the 30 is 6!/4! (the number of distinguishable permutations of DBXXXX).

Either way, if one of those is really right (and both sound plausible to me? 3 M's given two letters already should be very unlikely), ash and gkrieg are basically caught now, town just has to figure it out.

Jimmmm even brought up the maths. Instead of treating this like a minor-side effect, I think it should have immediately meant an auto-vote for the masons, regardless of reads.

Secondly:

Final Vote Count Day 2

Awaclus (2): chairs, Twistedarcher
Witherweaver (6): gkrieg13, Awaclus, ashersky, UmbrageOfSnow, Witherweaver, yuma
Twistedarcher (1): Hydrad

Not Voting (1): Jimmmmm

With 10 alive, it took 6 to lynch.

Final Vote Count Day 3

yuma (1): Awaclus
chairs (2): ashersky, gkrieg13

No-Lynch (5): UmbrageOfSnow, yuma, Jimmmmm, chairs, Twistedarcher

With 8 alive, it took 5 to no-lynch.

I can't write flavor for this, sorry.

Final Vote Count Day 4

chairs (4): ashersky, gkrieg13, yuma, Awaclus

Not Voting (3): UmbrageOfSnow, Jimmmmm, chairs

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.

Scum collectively drove every single mislynch this game, except for the very first one (which should not have been a lynch...). Why did no-one do any proper wagon analysis?

[Awaclus]

It's never not wrong to lynch Awaclus.  Never.

This is true.

Thanks for the MVP. I still don't think my playstyle is anti-town in general, but it can work that way too.

[skip wooznum]

Must....see......scum qt!

[silverspawn]

Now about the UoS thing: I am shocked and blatantly insulted at ash's reaction, and anyone who agrees with him. Where is your respect or loyalty towards UoS as a person? Why does he need to be punished so badly when you have no idea why he is absent? This is not a case of someone lurking because of laziness. The attitude of treating everyone equally upon the slightest rule violation regardless of context is one I wholeheartedly despise. I will not have it in my games.

I found myself confronted with a decision of

a) replacing UoS
b) modkilling him if he doesn't return

Points for a) > b)

- Town doesn't receive an unfair advantage due to a situation which presumably was no-ones fault
- We don't have a player absent

Points for b) > a)

- Scott basically proved to everyone in the speccy that the masons are lying, so I can't take a replacement from there, which doesn't leave a lot of players remaining. Teproc immediately came to mind, but I didn't feel great about requesting him to reread 30 pages

- I suspected that Teproc might reach the same conclusions Scott did. If I replace him in and that makes scum lose, it's kind of unfair. In any case, my choice of whom I pick directly influences the outcome of the game.

- I usually am biased towards a town win, which I don't want to influence my decision.

- I asked in the Speccy and it's what faust advised.

Because of these reasons, I decided to go with b). I thought and still think that this was in favor of scum. Further punishing UoS was never something I even considered.

The deadline extension, I don't know why you even complain about that. Game Days are usually 10 real days long, this one is 7, with the extension it would have been 9. No-one would have complained if I made it 10 in the first place, which for me shows that there is nothing wrong with it. But more importantly, UoS' absence still hurts town overall, even with the extension, and especially after I just made a decision in favor of scum, this was all but unfair. I even considered making it +3 days.

In fact, I think I would have made it +3 days if it was not for ash's initial reaction.

[Jimmmmm]

I don't agree with any kind of punishment or assuming anything about UOS's disappearance. However I do think the result is unfair on Town. It just meant we had 0% chance of winning. Subbing doesn't seem like a good solution either though. I guess the only fair solution I can think of is to call the game off, since a bunch of players now have no chance of winning through no fault of their own.

Maybe something we could do in general is ask 1-2 people to sign up to a game as sub, and at least somewhat follow the game so that they are ready to sub in for situations like this.

[silverspawn]

Oh and

Speccy QT
Mafia QT

Other QT's coming in a bit.

[silverspawn]

I don't agree with any kind of punishment or assuming anything about UOS's disappearance. However I do think the result is unfair on Town. It just meant we had 0% chance of winning. Subbing doesn't seem like a good solution either though. I guess the only fair solution I can think of is to call the game off, since a bunch of players now have no chance of winning through no fault of their own.

Maybe something we could do in general is ask 1-2 people to sign up to a game as sub, and at least somewhat follow the game so that they are ready to sub in for situations like this.

well yeah, I do agree with this. I think it was unfair for town. I just didn't see any less unfair way.

[yuma]

yuma, we had it in us! We could have done it!

No. We couldn't have. Not with UoS gone. Wasn't possible.

Also this:

I think scum team is awaclus/ash/gkrieg.

everything fits too perfectly. Calling it now.

(Now you can be offended ash)

and same thing in my QT

but let myself get dissuaded from that and had to face the hard reality that getting those lynches to happen couldn't happen.

[silverspawn]

All QT's:

Speccy
Mod
Mafia
yuma
TA
chairs
UoS
Hydrad
Witherweaver
faust
Pingpongsam (best QT)