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Author Topic: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Game over, Mafia wins flawlessly)  (Read 195866 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1675 on: October 04, 2015, 05:08:20 pm »

Vote Count 4.0

Not Voting (7): UmbrageOfSnow, yuma, Jimmmmm, chairs, Awaclus, ashersky, gkrieg13

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 4 ends at October 11, 05 pm forum time.

yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1676 on: October 04, 2015, 05:13:02 pm »

OK.

so this means we certainly had DB at the least. Meaning that if ash/gkierg were mafia then they would have received 1-Shot Strongman; Roleblocker. They would not know if they had TTTT or TTT. But if they fake claimed would have had to incurred the risk of TTT and at least one of the 3 non-Ts being a M. If even one of them was an M their fake claim would have gone up in flames.

So I think this makes their claim much more legitimate as I felt that their fake claim only worked if TA was lying as well.

So from my perspective we are back to: Jimmmm, chairs, Awaclus and UoS. 3 out of 4. Awaclus is still my main preference for so many reasons.

And we are now to the point of one vote by town on town could, conceivably result in a triple scum hammer (unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility) so I will hold off from voting for now.
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silverspawn

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Happily Ever After Ruling
« Reply #1677 on: October 04, 2015, 05:25:51 pm »

As several people have asked about it, here a detailed explanation of how the happily ever after ruling will be enforced:

Mafia will not be able to no-kill in any night if and only if the previous three game stages have been a sequence of (no-lynch, no-kill, no-lynch). This means that town is able to provoke a kill by no-lynching twice.

If mafia doesn't submit a kill in such a situation, one will be randomized, wherein player M will attempt to kill player A, player M being any random player from the remaining mafia team, and player A any random player from the entire pool. Mafia will be notified of which choice was randomized and it will count as a submission for all purposes, even if it doesn't go through. Town will not be notified whether or not the nightkill was chosen or randomized.

I hope this covers all edge-cases!

ashersky

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1678 on: October 04, 2015, 05:27:00 pm »

No one vote.
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ashersky

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1679 on: October 04, 2015, 05:30:30 pm »

You all get that, of course.

For the two town out of the 5 of you, you are at a 3/4 juncture, which is obviously awesome.  Literally.

So, do what you have to do to find the most likely player to be the other town.  This isn't about scumhunting anymore -- it's town hunting.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1680 on: October 04, 2015, 05:59:55 pm »

My alarm bells are telling me to consider the possibility of an ash/gkrieg/yuma team.

Each person should think about the situation themselves and see if they come up with the same conclusion as yuma.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1681 on: October 04, 2015, 06:01:50 pm »

My alarm bells are telling me to consider the possibility of an ash/gkrieg/yuma team.

Okay, maybe that doesn't work. Give me a minute.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1682 on: October 04, 2015, 06:06:08 pm »

UOS, yuma, chairs and Awaclus all claimed VT right?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1683 on: October 04, 2015, 06:07:53 pm »

My alarm bells are telling me to consider the possibility of an ash/gkrieg/yuma team.

Okay, maybe that doesn't work. Give me a minute.

Yeah okay, no Masons = 2-person scumteam.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1684 on: October 04, 2015, 06:09:29 pm »

So Today we assume that ash and gkrieg are truly Masons, because if they're not we'll catch them Tomorrow, but if they are we're at lylo Today, right?
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1685 on: October 04, 2015, 06:11:37 pm »

Ugh no it's a 3-person scum team regardless.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1686 on: October 04, 2015, 06:12:18 pm »

So back to considering "Masons" + yuma...
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1687 on: October 04, 2015, 06:23:15 pm »

My alarm bells are telling me to consider the possibility of an ash/gkrieg/yuma team.

Each person should think about the situation themselves and see if they come up with the same conclusion as yuma.

My conclusion should be the same regardless of my alignment.

It boils down to this:

"Do you think that gkierg and ash would have risked claiming masons Night0--when they would have discussed it--know that there was a chance that the setup was TTT and that a single M role would have ruined their fakeclaim?"

I will concede that it still is possible that ash/gkierg are lying and one of the other four is their partner (awaclus would be my bet given that they two of them have been the only two players to vote for him...)

If someone with a better grasp of statistics wants to look at it, that would be cool... I just tried and realized that I had forgotten a lot in the last 10 years since my last stats class.

Regardless, I think it would have been too risky to try. The scenario where TA was fake claiming as well would have been a lot less risky as the Setup would have either been 1T or 0T, but now that TA is confirmed as a roleblocker we know town had at least TTTT and far more likely just a T (DBMMM)

It is also important to remember that gkierg claimed before faust claimed UB. This is an important piece to remember as if it was fake it was far riskier to claim before knowing about the UB status than it was to claim after and I would have been much more skeptical of the claim had it come after...
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1688 on: October 04, 2015, 06:25:46 pm »

This isn't about scumhunting anymore -- it's town hunting.

I get that idea, but unfortunately there are two players without a lot of content... Jimmmm and chairs (and UoS in the early game) in large part just because of RL stuff and how they play. And right now I can't really separate them at all. I just looked over their posts and well.... it comes down to does Jimmmm post that little as scum? And that is a dangerous question to try and place a game on.

I am much more certain of awaclus being scum than I am of any one player being town because none of the four options has been exceptionally townie this game.
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ashersky

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1689 on: October 04, 2015, 06:30:16 pm »

This isn't about scumhunting anymore -- it's town hunting.

I get that idea, but unfortunately there are two players without a lot of content... Jimmmm and chairs (and UoS in the early game) in large part just because of RL stuff and how they play. And right now I can't really separate them at all. I just looked over their posts and well.... it comes down to does Jimmmm post that little as scum? And that is a dangerous question to try and place a game on.

I am much more certain of awaclus being scum than I am of any one player being town because none of the four options has been exceptionally townie this game.

I think it's important to decide who you think is towniest, too.

You've been on Awaclus all game.  The others matter too.

The fact that chairs and Jimmmm have so little content is big.  Yes, it plays into their established metas, and that could be on purpose.  Jimmmmm has started off today badly, but maybe that's frustrated omgus because man, he freaking never townreads me and it's annoying.  Plus, the confusion thing seemed really faked.

To me, UOS made up for the early game lag easily.

And you, i think you are town.  Gut read, plus speaking the sense.
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1690 on: October 04, 2015, 06:31:09 pm »

Yeah okay, no Masons = 2-person scumteam.

Sigh. It is Day4. You should have a decent grasp of the game state and not leave town to try and figure out if this is just ignorance or a ploy for a town-slip.

Please!

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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1691 on: October 04, 2015, 06:34:23 pm »

Yeah okay, no Masons = 2-person scumteam.

Sigh. It is Day4. You should have a decent grasp of the game state and not leave town to try and figure out if this is just ignorance or a ploy for a town-slip.

Please!

I know, and I'm sorry. :(
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1692 on: October 04, 2015, 06:36:35 pm »

I think it's important to decide who you think is towniest, too.

That is fair. Right now I honestly can't decide between Jimmmmm and chairs on who is towniest. There isn't enough to separate them. Data points from a later game will be really useful if we are able to get a correct lynch today that might separate them out for me.... If deadline was right now and the vote was tied and I was the deciding vote I would vote for Jimmmm--chairs I think has had a few moments that seemed townie to me whereas Jimmmm hasn't had anything to read off....

I do think UoS has been scummy, certainly not fully townie (had some points about him earlier)

And if we had lynched awaclus earlier in the game I wouldn't have needed to be on him all game.
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yuma

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1693 on: October 04, 2015, 06:37:53 pm »

I know, and I'm sorry. :(

That said... I have a hard time seeing you thinking feigning such a "town slip" in a game with ashersky as being a "good idea"
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Awaclus

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1694 on: October 04, 2015, 06:41:38 pm »

I think it's important to decide who you think is towniest, too.

That is fair. Right now I honestly can't decide between Jimmmmm and chairs on who is towniest. There isn't enough to separate them. Data points from a later game will be really useful if we are able to get a correct lynch today that might separate them out for me.... If deadline was right now and the vote was tied and I was the deciding vote I would vote for Jimmmm--chairs I think has had a few moments that seemed townie to me whereas Jimmmm hasn't had anything to read off....

I do think UoS has been scummy, certainly not fully townie (had some points about him earlier)

And if we had lynched awaclus earlier in the game I wouldn't have needed to be on him all game.

It would probably help with getting that correct lynch if you stopped wanting to lynch me.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1695 on: October 04, 2015, 06:59:03 pm »

I think it's important to decide who you think is towniest, too.

That is fair. Right now I honestly can't decide between Jimmmmm and chairs on who is towniest. There isn't enough to separate them. Data points from a later game will be really useful if we are able to get a correct lynch today that might separate them out for me.... If deadline was right now and the vote was tied and I was the deciding vote I would vote for Jimmmm--chairs I think has had a few moments that seemed townie to me whereas Jimmmm hasn't had anything to read off....

I do think UoS has been scummy, certainly not fully townie (had some points about him earlier)

And if we had lynched awaclus earlier in the game I wouldn't have needed to be on him all game.

It would probably help with getting that correct lynch if you stopped wanting to lynch me.

This does nothing to stop people wanting to lynch you.
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Awaclus

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1696 on: October 04, 2015, 07:07:37 pm »

This does nothing to stop people wanting to lynch you.

It should though. The #1 thing going on in each townie's head now should be "how do I not get lynched" because a mislynch immediately loses us the game and the odds of hitting scum as long as we lynch anyone but myself (or the masons) are super good. It's not super important for scum, however, since two of them can afford to get correctly lynched before it's game over for them.

It clearly was the most important thing in my mind because why else would I hurry to make that post before having anything else to say.
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Jimmmmm

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1697 on: October 04, 2015, 07:39:35 pm »

My alarm bells are telling me to consider the possibility of an ash/gkrieg/yuma team.

Each person should think about the situation themselves and see if they come up with the same conclusion as yuma.

My conclusion should be the same regardless of my alignment.

It boils down to this:

"Do you think that gkierg and ash would have risked claiming masons Night0--when they would have discussed it--know that there was a chance that the setup was TTT and that a single M role would have ruined their fakeclaim?"

I will concede that it still is possible that ash/gkierg are lying and one of the other four is their partner (awaclus would be my bet given that they two of them have been the only two players to vote for him...)

If someone with a better grasp of statistics wants to look at it, that would be cool... I just tried and realized that I had forgotten a lot in the last 10 years since my last stats class.

Regardless, I think it would have been too risky to try. The scenario where TA was fake claiming as well would have been a lot less risky as the Setup would have either been 1T or 0T, but now that TA is confirmed as a roleblocker we know town had at least TTTT and far more likely just a T (DBMMM)

It is also important to remember that gkierg claimed before faust claimed UB. This is an important piece to remember as if it was fake it was far riskier to claim before knowing about the UB status than it was to claim after and I would have been much more skeptical of the claim had it come after...

So the argument against this is this:

Given there's either 3 or 4 Ts and not 2 Ms, by my calculations (and I can't guarantee they're correct, but I can walk you through what I did if you want), there is a 35.3% chance that there is either 1 or 3 Ms.

Now if the team is yuma, ash and gkrieg, I mean no offense to gkrieg and I haven't played with him before so really I don't know, but I imagine yuma and ash are the stronger players (because they're both very strong players). I could totally see this team agreeing to a 35% chance of losing their choice of scum in exchange for getting Masons to claim, and a 65% chance of pretty much just winning the game.

Knowing there are 2-3 non-Ts, they would also have known that there were some non-VTs around which would likely claim sooner or later, giving them other targets to shoot to avoid them falling under suspicion for not dying.

To the other 3, if you're Town please consider this possibility seriously and let us know what you think.
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ashersky

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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1698 on: October 04, 2015, 07:56:53 pm »

We already know it can't be 1 M, there was a UB who flipped.
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Re: M68: Fanfiction Mafia (Day 4)
« Reply #1699 on: October 04, 2015, 07:59:56 pm »

We already know it can't be 1 M, there was a UB who flipped.

I'm talking about what a scum team with a 1-Shot Strongman and a Roleblocker would know at the start of the game.
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