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[Titandrake]

http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110620-223009-34538495.html

Bureaucrat, Cellar, Cutpurse, Harvest, King's Court, Native Village, Potion, Steward, Tribute, Vineyard, and Workshop

So, I start out 5/2, with my opponent 4/3. Personally not that happy about it initially. My plan for 4/3 would probably have been steward/silver, although cutpurse was certainly viable as well.

However, it's not actually that bad, because Tribute is in play. Normally, I've found that tribute tends to be a tad hit-or-miss. However, early on is the time where I maximize my chance to get +2 cards, because of the high estate density. Additionally, NV has a psuedo-trash ability to help make up the difference in steward trashing. So, I plan to buy tribute, hope it gives me something good, and then proceed with a steward powered deck.

I go Tribute/NV, while my opponent goes Cutpurse/Steward. Seemed sort of risky, but early on you're not drawing with Steward anyways. Additionally, buying silver would have given me more chance of money (might be negligible)

Going double terminal does pay off, as both of them get played. Meanwhile, Tribute pays off for me and I get a silly early gold.

The game \plays itself, me getting a Steward, more money, and more native village. I was surprised a bit that Kingslayer bought the Harvest. When it consistently gives $3, and there's King's Court and NV to help with not have enough +action, it does seem to work though...

Around turn 16, my deck starts stalling, and i have a 3-0 province lead. Only having 1 gold is messing my deck up. Note that Big Money probably beats both of our decks at this point.

That stalling does lead to big problems, because by turn 20 the provinces are split 3-3, and duchies are split 4-2. Additionally Kingslayer trashed 1 fewer estate, so he or she holds that tiebreaker as well.

On my turn 20, I'm faced with $8 and the 2nd-to-last province. I decide not to buy it. Here's my thought process at that time:

• If I buy it and Kingslayer buys it, I lose
• If I don't buy it and Kingslayer buys it, I lose
• If I manage to buy 2 provinces, Kingslayer has the 4-2 duchy split, and I lose to the estate split.

Too bad that last point is wrong. I still have an issue with province splits, thinking that 5/3 = a 6 VP difference instead of 12 VP. I should have bought the last province, because even if I did tie up duchies by buying the two remaining, Kingslayer would buy estates and keep the estate tiebreak.

So, with faulty logic I buy the Duchy. And it turns out I actually get $8 twice in a row thanks to KC/Tribute shenanigans. Oops. But seeing that I have the chance to tie up duchies, I buy another duchy instead of the province, the exact estate split situation described above comes up, and then I became sad. 

In the end, I manage to pull the 5/3 province split thanks to ridiculous luck. I should have noticed it was my only chance earlier, and if I hadn't had the ridiculous luck I would have lost.

So the lesson here is learn to do simple math.

Edited for improved clarity, typos, etc.

[Taqman]

Nice writeup.  I've actually faced The Kingslayer before and we talked about our game like youre doing now.  He definitely has some pretty creative ideas. 

I actually don't think you had a whole lot of decisions to make this game aside from the end.  Tribute isn't all that interesting to open with but it's a fine buy.  Probably better than opening steward/native or cutpurse/ native.  Unless you get a bunch of KC + tribute hands though, you'll probably need another action or two if you want to move fast.

And I think the 5/2 vs. 4/3 in this game is almost a wash.  There are no +Buys, so spending extra time setting up a killer KC deck isn't actually worth the squeeze. 

The double terminal by Kingslayer is a bit risky, but I have nothing against it, especially considering he gets a native on turn 3.  It looks like he actually got terrible draws, which is probably why you were able to break out to such an early lead without contention.   

Reshuffle before turn 3: (The Kingslayer draws: a Steward and 4 Coppers.)
Reshuffle before turn 5: (The Kingslayer draws: 2 Coppers, a Steward, a Cutpurse, and a Silver.)
Reshuffle before turn 7: (The Kingslayer draws: a Cutpurse, a Steward, 2 Coppers, and a Harvest.)

You were actually able to trash your estates 2 turns before him haha.  He did manage to trim and build a solid deck (harvest is very underrated imo), but it was late.  I'm impressed that The Kingslayer saw that he was probably going to need a 4-duchy or better advantage so early.  The turn 13 and 14 duchy buys were great plays despite crummy draws. 

The endgame analysis spot on.  You only have 1 KC, but if it hits with steward or tribute you're almost certain to get a province.  The fact that you are reshuffling after turn 21 (after the duchy buy) is probably reason enough to Province up.  He has the duchy and estate advantage, just take the penultimate province and plan on snagging the last one also. 

And interpreting the 5-3 province split as a 6 point advantage is actually pretty common for up and coming players haha.  For no obvious reason it is kinda counterintuitive.  Remember you need 8 duchies to make up for 6-2 province split!