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[RTT]

Has someone done the math? How likely is if i have all cards and play all random to have 0,1,2 or more events?

IŽd be interested in the numbers.

[JW]

I should have actually used negative hyper geometric instead of a naive binomial in my last post. Real probabilities are (for all cards):

0 events: 43.5%
1 event: 35.5%
2+ events: 21.0%

[mith]

I get the following probabilities for number of events drawn using all kingdom cards (236 kingdom, 20 events, draw until you have 10 kingdom).

0: 43.66%
1: 35.50%
2: 15.14% (2+: 20.84%)
3: 4.47%
4: 1.02%
5: 0.19%
6+: 0.03%

jonts used an approximation, the above are the actual values to two decimals. (If you care about a difference of 1 in 600 games...)

The formula is here, where k is the number of events, m is 10 (number of kingdom cards), M is 236 (total kingdom cards) and N is 256 (all cards).