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gkrieg13

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #275 on: July 31, 2015, 01:12:08 pm »
+6

I don't like Black market at all. Sometimes it's a pretty cool card because you are able to play your treasures earlier. This is awesome in Draw to X or in DoubleTactician for example. But the main effect is ridiculous. Some cards of the BM deck are usually just game changing and give you a free win. Just a few examples:
- Tournament
- Goons
- Villages or even Crossroad in a Kingdom with awesome Terminals and without Villages
- Chapel (in you hit it early)
- Mountebank

Buying the last Province while your opponent has at most a 5-point lead is also game-changing and gives you a free win.
oh I can't stand provinces, dont even get me started.

But you also think Dukes blow. You also hate Estates because they're junk cards. So what do you like?

Harems
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Seprix

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #276 on: July 31, 2015, 01:12:56 pm »
0

I don't like Black market at all. Sometimes it's a pretty cool card because you are able to play your treasures earlier. This is awesome in Draw to X or in DoubleTactician for example. But the main effect is ridiculous. Some cards of the BM deck are usually just game changing and give you a free win. Just a few examples:
- Tournament
- Goons
- Villages or even Crossroad in a Kingdom with awesome Terminals and without Villages
- Chapel (in you hit it early)
- Mountebank

Buying the last Province while your opponent has at most a 5-point lead is also game-changing and gives you a free win.
oh I can't stand provinces, dont even get me started.

But you also think Dukes blow. You also hate Estates because they're junk cards. So what do you like?

Harems

Perfect answer.
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #277 on: July 31, 2015, 03:23:32 pm »
+1

Buying the last Province while your opponent has at most a 5-point lead is also game-changing and gives you a free win. Now what can you to make it so that you're more likely to get that opportunity than your opponent is?

Similarly, what can you do to make it so that you're more likely to get some great cards out of the Black Market than your opponent is?

The answer to those two questions is more or less the same and is what Dominion is all about.

I don't see how those two answers are similar at all. The answer to the former is complex and depends on the kingdom, but it usually involves you making a lot of choices. The answer to the latter is, first of all, "almost nothing", but I guess you can try to play Black Market often, and you can track the BM deck. Playing BM often is usually not the best idea. Tracking the deck yields moderate results (and hurts you economy). If both players do their best and play reasonably well, it will in any case be a total crap shoot who gets, for example, the one curser. (And please don't lay that old "it's always luck when both players play equally well" on me. It's clear that certain cards are more swingy than others; that's the point.)

SCSN

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #278 on: July 31, 2015, 04:25:07 pm »
+1

The answer to the latter is, first of all, "almost nothing"

lol, think harder.

The most powerful deck on the board, the sort of deck that wins you the game (whether that's by emptying Provinces or through some other means), is generally a deck-drawing engine. Those exact same decks excel in playing Black Market and tend to be hard to build (as is evident from the fact that so few people do it consistently well). Comparing an engine that plays 2 BMs/turn against a whackier deck that only manages 0.5-1 plays, it should be easy to see that when your opponent isn't playing as well as you it's quite common to have anything between 2-4 times as high a chance of getting game changers out of the BM, which is absolutely huge. Even if your opponent is building the same deck but is doing so a little worse, meaning he's a bit slower to get there, this still gives you a few turns of up to a factor 4 advantage.

Sure, if your opponent is equally skilled and doing the exact same thing it's going to be a coin-flip. But then any match-up between identical strategies is always going to be a coin-flip (up to structural asymmetries like FPA), so that fact can not be used as an argument against any specific point. Not to mention that Black Market is the most skill-intensive card in the entire game by some distance, so it offers more opportunities than usual for skilled play to make a difference.

Quote
Playing BM often is usually not the best idea.

Except that it almost always is. You sometimes/reasonably often don't want to do so right away but trash down and work on your draw first, but that doesn't take away from the fact that playing it at a higher rate than your opponent is one of the key components involved with playing the card well, and the answer to how to do this, in your own words, "is complex and depends on the kingdom, but it usually involves you making a lot of choices."

Quote
It's clear that certain cards are more swingy than others; that's the point.

Black Market is both quite swingy and very high-skill. Some people think—or at least act like—these things are antithetical but in reality they have absolutely nothing to do with each other and can coexist in perfect peace.
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skip wooznum

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #279 on: July 31, 2015, 04:52:54 pm »
+2

Im not certain about this, but wasn't the point that one player can pull a power card earlier than the more skilled player has a chance to excercise his superior skill?  Like, if on turn 3 or 5 one player just gets lucky and wins the prized bm card. That rearly happens to the eigth province.

And you're sort of admitting this (that bm is swingy). You're just saying it's also high skill, which, fine, but people can still dislike it for being swingy.

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SCSN

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #280 on: July 31, 2015, 05:16:24 pm »
+1

Im not certain about this, but wasn't the point that one player can pull a power card earlier than the more skilled player has a chance to excercise his superior skill?  Like, if on turn 3 or 5 one player just gets lucky and wins the prized bm card. That rearly happens to the eigth province.

So you never find yourself playing well and have your opponent winning anyway, say, by snatching the last Province? It happens to me all the time.

Quote
And you're sort of admitting this (that bm is swingy). You're just saying it's also high skill, which, fine, but people can still dislike it for being swingy.

People are free to dislike anything in the world for whatever reason they fancy. I'm just pointing out that the "Black Market is a pure crapshoot" sentiment rests on absolute bollocks, as there's a ton you can do to stack the deck in your favor. That combined with a number of tricks related to playing treasures midturn and building your deck in such a way that it can really profit from midturn Black Market gains (one of its most underappreciated assets) makes it a very high-skill and above all a tremendously interesting card.

In the end I absolutely love Black Market and to see it get this sort of hate based on a superficial appraisal and what I consider largely a misconception quite saddens me.

Edit: not to mention that the "race to (a) key card(s)" dynamic isn't all that common in BM games, although I guess it is if you make the grave mistake of only going for it when it contains game-changing powerhouses.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2015, 05:24:21 pm by SheCantSayNo »
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skip wooznum

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #281 on: July 31, 2015, 05:51:26 pm »
0

Im unsure what your position is. Are arguing that bm is not an overly swingy card, cuz that's the only point that was made against it.
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skip wooznum

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #282 on: July 31, 2015, 06:00:50 pm »
0

Im unsure what your position is. Are arguing that bm is not an overly swingy card, cuz that's the only point that was made against it.
actually that's not really true, is it. But whatever, are you arguing THAT point?
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #283 on: August 02, 2015, 01:57:25 pm »
0

This is quite simple. What makes Tournament a card that is quite often a powerful card? Mostly you open Tournament, and if you do it's almost always because you want to get a Province as soon as possible and connect it with a Tournament. Why? Because the unique prizes (often one or two of them, and often Followers if it's the only Curse giver and/or discard attack) are that powerful and important. At least in Tournament games how you go about getting that Province, and how you go about connecting, is based on skill. Of course, as always in Dominion, it's possible to just get lucky and hit $8 early and get lucky and connect without doing much sifting or trashing or engine building or whatever (or more likely, doing it less skillfully than your opponent). But that's more on the level of the normal possibility of luck undermining skill that exists in Dominion.

In Black Market games on the other hand, if there's one or several important cards in the same vein as Prizes, it's much more likely that one player can get an important card just by playing BM. It just as likely to happen in turn 3 or 4 as later (except that you might not get $5 and it might cost $5, or it might costs $6). As an example, if there is no trashing and no cursing and you get a curser, that's extremely impactful, often more so than Followers, because Followers slows down the player playing it too, with Estates. As another example, if it's the only trasher.

So I don't really see the big relevance of the possibility of building a deck that can play more BMs. Yes, that's often better than not doing it. But that's beside the point. The point is the likelihood of just getting that important card without doing any building, or doing it in a significantly less skillful and effective way than your opponent.

SheCantSayNo. You said, "any match-up between identical strategies is always going to be a coin-flip". This was the exact thing I told you not to say. I'll explain why again. Some cards introduce more luck in the game than others. We call these cards swingy. Swindler is one example. Nevertheless, whether it's a high skill, perfect predictability game or a crazy unpredictable Swindler bonanza, the fact is that if both players play exactly equally well, who wins will be a coin flip. To distill it further down, if two players each throw a die and the higher number wins, or if two players play a game of chess, if they are both exactly equally matched in skill, in both cases it will be a coin-flip. Does that mean that chess players might as well just throw dice? No, whether the players are equally matched or not, they will prefer to play chess.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2015, 02:02:42 pm by Jeebus »
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #284 on: August 02, 2015, 02:24:44 pm »
+2

In Black Market games on the other hand, if there's one or several important cards in the same vein as Prizes, it's much more likely that one player can get an important card just by playing BM. It just as likely to happen in turn 3 or 4 as later (except that you might not get $5 and it might cost $5, or it might costs $6).

This last bit is false. There are 25 cards in the Black Market, you're obviously much more likely to see any of them "later" rather than turn 3 or 4. Clearly playing BM more often can increase your chances of finding something nice in the "later".

Quote
As an example, if there is no trashing and no cursing and you get a curser, that's extremely impactful, often more so than Followers, because Followers slows down the player playing it too, with Estates. As another example, if it's the only trasher.

This bit is exaggerated by our need to give every win or loss a nice "explanation". He got card X from the BM, boohoo. It just doesn't happen all that often. It's really rare for the Black Market to only have 1 or 2 hugely dominating pieces, it can happen, but much more often there's just a mix of useful and not useful stuff. And just getting something from the BM is not enough if you don't have the deck in place to exploit it properly and that's a hugely skill dependent problem.

Not to even mention all the nontrivial buy decisions it can introduce about "which of these 3 cards should I get". People mess this up all the time, even if intuition would say the choice is usually clear. And it's not unrelated that people screw up first prize choice a lot also, even though 1 Prize is supposed to be so "dominating".
« Last Edit: August 02, 2015, 02:27:48 pm by Mic Qsenoch »
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #285 on: August 02, 2015, 02:41:37 pm »
+1

This last bit is false. There are 25 cards in the Black Market, you're obviously much more likely to see any of them "later" rather than turn 3 or 4. Clearly playing BM more often can increase your chances of finding something nice in the "later".

I strictly speaking phrased it wrong. I meant it's just as likely to happen on turn 3 or on turn 4 as on any other turn later (unlike with Tournament).
« Last Edit: August 02, 2015, 03:07:53 pm by Jeebus »
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #286 on: August 02, 2015, 03:06:35 pm »
+1

Let's clarify what we are saying here.

Swinger is widely accepted as being a fairly swingy card. Obviously you can make all kinds of qualifications about that, things you can do to mitigate the swinginess of the card (just as you guys are doing about BM). That doesn't take away from the fact that it's swingy; actually those qualifications are considered when people say it's a swingy card.

So. I'm saying BM is substantially more swingy than Swindler. Are you guys saying (A) yeah, it is, (B) it's more or less as swingy, or (C) it's actually substantially less swingy?

Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #287 on: August 02, 2015, 03:28:29 pm »
+1

Swinger is widely accepted as being a fairly swingy card. Obviously you can make all kinds of qualifications about that, things you can do to mitigate the swinginess of the card (just as you guys are doing about BM). That doesn't take away from the fact that it's swingy; actually those qualifications are considered when people say it's a swingy card.

The cards don't have properties independent of how players are using them in actual games of Dominion. They don't have some fixed swinginess that people then "mitigate", how people play with them determines whatever swinginess a card has. Unless you want to peg some particular algorithm for playing a card as the default. Your last sentence is saying this, I just want to make it clear.

Given that, it's entirely possible that people talking about BM aren't in fact taking these qualifications into consideration at all because they don't have the experience with the card or aren't very good with it. I mostly think people write such comments because people like to repeat stuff they hear over again.

About the Swindler comparison, uh, I don't know. I don't know how to measure swinginess. As far as I could tell it was just a word people liked to say because it sounds funny. Probably I'd pick C.
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #288 on: August 02, 2015, 04:10:14 pm »
+1

The cards don't have properties independent of how players are using them in actual games of Dominion. They don't have some fixed swinginess that people then "mitigate", how people play with them determines whatever swinginess a card has. Unless you want to peg some particular algorithm for playing a card as the default. Your last sentence is saying this, I just want to make it clear.

To me what you're saying is akin to saying that for instance Scout is not "good" or "bad"; it's all about how people play with it. While strictly speaking true, it has very little bearing on the discussion.

From the strategy article written by theory: "Swindler is a heavily luck-driven card: there’s a very big difference between discarding an opponent’s Estate and transforming Coppers into Curses. If an opponent opens 5/2 and you turn their first  into a Duchy, that may very well decide the game." I guess this is just nonsense to you?
« Last Edit: August 02, 2015, 04:12:52 pm by Jeebus »
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Awaclus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #289 on: August 02, 2015, 04:23:04 pm »
+1

From the strategy article written by theory: "Swindler is a heavily luck-driven card: there’s a very big difference between discarding an opponent’s Estate and transforming Coppers into Curses. If an opponent opens 5/2 and you turn their first  into a Duchy, that may very well decide the game." I guess this is just nonsense to you?

Well, in Swindler's case, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that buying $5 cards is actively making Swindler swingy, rather than saying that Swindler is inherently swingy and buying $4 cards is mitigating its swinginess. It's even useful to think of it this way, since the default play shouldn't be "buy the most expensive card you can afford".
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #290 on: August 02, 2015, 04:38:50 pm »
+1

Well, in Swindler's case, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that buying $5 cards is actively making Swindler swingy, rather than saying that Swindler is inherently swingy and buying $4 cards is mitigating its swinginess. It's even useful to think of it this way, since the default play shouldn't be "buy the most expensive card you can afford".

You can't seriously be saying that with a 2/5 split the correct play is usually to buy a $4 over a good $5 just because Swindler is on the table.

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #291 on: August 02, 2015, 04:49:26 pm »
+1

Well, in Swindler's case, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that buying $5 cards is actively making Swindler swingy, rather than saying that Swindler is inherently swingy and buying $4 cards is mitigating its swinginess. It's even useful to think of it this way, since the default play shouldn't be "buy the most expensive card you can afford".

You can't seriously be saying that with a 2/5 split the correct play is usually to buy a $4 over a good $5 just because Swindler is on the table.

True.
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #292 on: August 02, 2015, 04:54:28 pm »
+1

True.

Okay. Then... state what you are saying instead maybe? Because the one word answer isn't really adding anything, in case you for some reason hadn't realized that.

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #293 on: August 02, 2015, 05:15:10 pm »
0

True.

Okay. Then... state what you are saying instead maybe? Because the one word answer isn't really adding anything, in case you for some reason hadn't realized that.

I'm saying that the default play should be "buy nothing" unless you have a reason to buy something. Cards help you, but they can also hurt you, especially when Swindler is around, and you should take that into consideration.
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Donald X.

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #294 on: August 02, 2015, 05:21:16 pm »
+5

I always remember this thing rrenaud did: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2798.msg47781#msg47781

Remember that one guys? The idea there was to see how much the presence of a card changed your ability to predict who would win (based on their rating). You can fault it for including all games; it's showing you what cards help good players beat up bad players or vice-versa. And of course it's of its era, whatever era that was.

The difference between the best and worst predictors was not huge. Still, by this metric, Black Market is one of the cards that most means the better player will win. Swindler is at the other end, though still not as randomizing as oh Smithy.
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SCSN

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #295 on: August 02, 2015, 05:27:30 pm »
+3

SheCantSayNo. You said, "any match-up between identical strategies is always going to be a coin-flip". This was the exact thing I told you not to say.

lol, sorry about that, I forgot that you're the arbiter on what I'm allowed to say. Arguing is pretty damn easy if you forbid your opponent from making the points you can't refute, isn't it?

But ok, it was a minor tangent, so no reason to get all hung up about it. My main point is that the race to one or two key cards is but a minor aspect of Black Market play (in the sense that in most BM games it isn't really a big thing), so it's dumb to put so much emphasis on it while judging the card, and even when this dynamic is present there's a ton you can do to warp the odds in your favor, so BM games are very, very far from being crapshoots. Will the better player win 100% of games? No, but that's never the case, and I expect better playerers to win more often on Black Market boards than on random kingdoms.

You don't really seem open to changing your mind, but don't worry, if you really think BM is such a crapshoot I have a great offer for you: we play 30 random kingdoms with Black Market in it, if you get at least 13 points (win = 1, tie = 0.5) I pay you X, otherwise you pay me X. I suggest X to be a friendly amount like $100, but I'm willing to consider other proposals.

Full disclosure: I just played 6 Black Market games against Stef and lost 5 of them, winning the only game in which I ignored the card, so I evidently suck at these Black Market "crapshoots".

I fully expect you to come up with some lame-ass excuse but I genuinely hope you'll surprise me.
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #296 on: August 02, 2015, 05:38:26 pm »
0

The cards don't have properties independent of how players are using them in actual games of Dominion. They don't have some fixed swinginess that people then "mitigate", how people play with them determines whatever swinginess a card has. Unless you want to peg some particular algorithm for playing a card as the default. Your last sentence is saying this, I just want to make it clear.

To me what you're saying is akin to saying that for instance Scout is not "good" or "bad"; it's all about how people play with it. While strictly speaking true, it has very little bearing on the discussion.

It's relevant to the discussion because people always use the "swingy" label to automatically blame shuffles rather than their decisions and if people want to improve their play with Black Market or Swindler or whatever they have to stop doing that.

I'm most interested in how the cards are used at high levels of play. So I don't consider the average way a card is used as the proper reference point for describing whether something is "good" or "swingy". For some cards it's not a big deal, you don't have to go very high up the Dominion skill ladder before Scout is clearly bad almost all the time. This isn't true of very many other Dominion cards, but it's different for each one. You might say that my position on Black Market is that it's "swinginess" is largely an artifact of poor play.

Quote
From the strategy article written by theory: "Swindler is a heavily luck-driven card: there’s a very big difference between discarding an opponent’s Estate and transforming Coppers into Curses. If an opponent opens 5/2 and you turn their first  into a Duchy, that may very well decide the game." I guess this is just nonsense to you?

You can write sentences like this about every single Dominion card, it's not nonsense, it just turns out that all Dominion cards are heavily luck-driven. But I tend to disagree about the magnitude of the difference between hitting Estate vs Copper and even how decisive the Duchy thing is. I can't say how much I disagree because we can't get numbers for any of these statements, it's just how I feel based on my experience of the games and what I think people mean when they complain about Swindler.
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #297 on: August 02, 2015, 05:42:49 pm »
0

I always remember this thing rrenaud did: http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=2798.msg47781#msg47781

Remember that one guys? The idea there was to see how much the presence of a card changed your ability to predict who would win (based on their rating). You can fault it for including all games; it's showing you what cards help good players beat up bad players or vice-versa. And of course it's of its era, whatever era that was.

The difference between the best and worst predictors was not huge. Still, by this metric, Black Market is one of the cards that most means the better player will win. Swindler is at the other end, though still not as randomizing as oh Smithy.

The thing I never knew about this post was how different the measure was saying the cards were. It was clear that, if the +- could be believed, the cards were distinguishable. But I could have a thermometer which could distinguish between 70.05 and 70.00 while my body probably couldn't. Could an individual player be expected to detect any of these differences in their limited sample of games? (This question not directed at anyone specific, but at anyone who might know).
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Jeebus

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #298 on: August 02, 2015, 05:53:34 pm »
0

I'm saying that the default play should be "buy nothing" unless you have a reason to buy something. Cards help you, but they can also hurt you, especially when Swindler is around, and you should take that into consideration.

Right, but I don't see how that is any kind of argument against my point or against what theory was saying in that quote.

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Re: Cards you hate!
« Reply #299 on: August 02, 2015, 06:08:48 pm »
+3

lol, sorry about that, I forgot that you're the arbiter on what I'm allowed to say. Arguing is pretty damn easy if you forbid your opponent from making the points you can't refute, isn't it?

The point was that I already refuted it in the first post. But no matter, I refuted it again in my previous post.

You don't really seem open to changing your mind, but don't worry, if you really think BM is such a crapshoot I have a great offer for you: we play 30 random kingdoms with Black Market in it, if you get at least 13 points (win = 1, tie = 0.5) I pay you X, otherwise you pay me X. I suggest X to be a friendly amount like $100, but I'm willing to consider other proposals.

First of all, why introduce money at all if we just want to prove a point?

So to the lame-ass excuses. We both know you're a better player than me. It seems you think I'm saying that in 100% of games with BM, it's random who wins. I actually don't know how often BM introduces a big randomness element. But let's say it's half the time; it's probably less. I mean, often there are just other dominating cards (same as with Swindler). Then out of those games, how often will actually BM warp the game with an important card to one of the players before it's too late? I mean, if I get the Witch on turn 12 of a game that's gonna last 17 turns, it doesn't really matter that much. (It might matter a little of course.) So let's say it's half. That means that, oversimplifying it, in 25% of the games, it's a crapshoot who wins. That's 7 or 8 games. And of course this does not mean I'm guaranteed to win half of those. Flip 8 coins and you could get heads 1 or 2 times. The other 21 or 22 games will be decided without BM luck, so you'll win more than me based on your skill level (barring other luckfests, like Cultist or Rebuild). So how is this a good bet for me? Or what does it even prove?

The other thing is how much I feel like using time to play 30 non-rated games.
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