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[Arctic Penguin]

Without doing anything automated and just to get a very rough estimate, I glanced through 57 pro games between Stef and Mic Qsenoch. There were 20 resignations, 19 three pile endings, and 18 emptied Provinces/Colonies. It's hard to say if the resignations would have split differently if they were played out. It seems like a 50:50 breakdown is a pretty good rough estimate for high level games, but obviously that could vary a lot depending on each person's playing style.

[michaeljb]

I hacked together a script to scrape a given fds thread for game logs, then read those logs and report on how the games ended. The script will even follow youtube links and get game log links out of the video's description.

I ran it against the threads for the playoff round of GokoDom III, Dominion League Season 7, and the division A&B reporting threads of the Dominion League Seasons 1, 3, 4, and 5 (season 7 didn't segregate reporting based on division). It's hitting an error I haven't worked out yet when trying to scrape Seasons 2 and 6.

Not every game played as part of those competitions were reported in the respective threads, so the sample could still be larger (and I could run it against more threads but it's slow and I wanted to make this post eventually).

The aggregate is 281 games played.

With the possible exception of Season 7, I would say all these games constitute high-level play; the season 7 thread is the only one including game reports across all divisions of the league instead of just the top 2, but cutting out those out doesn't affect the overall total percentages by more than 2 percentage points in any category.



PS the Dominion Online logs don't show how many piles are empty at the end, so the checking for the endgame is done in this order:
- did a player resign?
- was the string "gains Colony" detected enough times to empty the Colony pile?
- was the string "gains Province" detected enough times to empty the Province pile?
- it must have ended due to piles

Therefore, for example if Province and three other piles run out, the game is reported as ending on Provinces here.

[liopoil]

So if you take out the resigned games, we have ~38% ending in 3-pile. Strangely the percentage is lower for colony games, but there are only 29 colony games total.

[werothegreat]

"I'm right because that's what I saw rah"

Okay, this is just my own anecdotes against his anecdotes, but I would solidly agree that 1/3 to 1/2 of the time games end on piles.  Even IRL.  This guy has definitely not yet played a Messenger/Magpie game.  Or an IGG game.  Or a Vineyards/Stonemason game.  Or a Masterpiece/Feodum game.  Or an Ironworks/Silk Road game...

[DStu]

PS the Dominion Online logs don't show how many piles are empty at the end, so the checking for the endgame is done in this order:
- did a player resign?
- was the string "gains Colony" detected enough times to empty the Colony pile?
- was the string "gains Province" detected enough times to empty the Province pile?
- it must have ended due to piles

edge-case: Ambassador.

[Awaclus]

PS the Dominion Online logs don't show how many piles are empty at the end, so the checking for the endgame is done in this order:
- did a player resign?
- was the string "gains Colony" detected enough times to empty the Colony pile?
- was the string "gains Province" detected enough times to empty the Province pile?
- it must have ended due to piles

edge-case: Ambassador.

Still, the game must have ended due to piles if nobody resigned, Colonies weren't gained enough to empty the pile and Provinces weren't gained enough to empty the pile.

[michaeljb]

If the first 7 Provinces were bought normally, then I play Ambassador, returning 1 or 2, my opponent will have the 8th gain of a Province, but the pile won't be empty. Then the game could end on piles with no more Provinces being gained, and my script will conclude it ended on Provinces.

Or if the last Province does get bought+gained in the normal way, my script will think "not 8" Provinces were gained and conclude the game ended on piles.

The script needs some work if it's going to be used on anything else ever again