Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Tables]

I'm talking about ending on three piles, province depletion or colony depletion. Anyone got any numbers on it, or are able to check? I've looked at council room but can't see a way to check it on there.

Edit: For those curious about the thread that inspired this - https://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/1369555/2-player-game

[DStu]

I'm talking about ending on three piles, province depletion or colony depletion. Anyone got any numbers on it, or are able to check? I've looked at council room but can't see a way to check it on there.

I did this like 3 years ago, that has certainly changed, but I'll try to find it anyway.

:e Ok, this was a 1day statistics 2.25 years ago...  I'm quite sure i xposted it here, but it's easier to find something in my posts on bgg...

"Third column is percentage ignoring resigns to compare to the old data [That was some reply on some even older statistic, where resigns were not considered]."

Province game: (13224 games)

Province:   9058   68,5%   79,6%
3pile:      2323   17,6%   20,4%
resign:   1843   13,9%   ---


Colony game: (3042 games)

Colony:      1457   47,9%   57,7%
Province:   349   11,5%   13,8%
3pile:      718   23,6%   28,4%
resign:    518   17,0%   ---

[Tables]

I'd also be curious how common 3 pile endings vs. VP pile endings are among, say, only the top 100 or 200 players if it's possible to check that. Basically, does skill affect how often 3 pile ends happen. I'd expect it does (due to building more engines and being more aware of game end potential) but of course, have no evidence right now.

PPE: I remember seeing it, DStu. I wouldn't mind seeing the old numbers, for sure.

[Jimmmmm]

I would conjecture that strong players and strong boards both push games towards 3-piles.

Also games with 1 strong and 1 weak player would 3-pile quite often.

[DStu]

I would conjecture that strong players and strong boards both push games towards 3-piles.

Also games with 1 strong and 1 weak player would 3-pile quite often.

It was already when you compare the 2013 to the 2010 numbers , 3 pile got more common.  I would agree that this trend continued.

[Awaclus]

It has certainly continued. I used to win a lot of games against pretty good players by pulling off 3-pile endings that they did not prepare for, but these days people are much more likely to see it coming and use it to their own advantage as well.

[enfynet]

In the rare case of the mega turn that empties the provinces and a 3rd pile, which would that be counted under?

[AdamH]

In the rare case of the mega turn that empties the provinces and a 3rd pile, which would that be counted under?

Doesn't seem all that rare, we build our engines, empty two piles, then race Provinces.

My opinion: Provinces.

But I could see a case being made for putting it under both categories.

The real question to me would be what happens if Colonies and Provinces were both emptied on the same turn? I guess I'd say Colonies but I don't feel good about that at all.

[Jimmmmm]

Can't there just be an overlap?

[Awaclus]

In the rare case of the mega turn that empties the provinces and a 3rd pile, which would that be counted under?

Doesn't seem all that rare, we build our engines, empty two piles, then race Provinces.

My opinion: Provinces.

But I could see a case being made for putting it under both categories.

I think it should be put under both categories if at least 3 non-Province, non-Colony piles are empty in addition to Province. Otherwise, just Provinces.

[LastFootnote]

I'm talking about ending on three piles, province depletion or colony depletion. Anyone got any numbers on it, or are able to check? I've looked at council room but can't see a way to check it on there.

Dude, don't try to argue with rickert over on BGG. It's just not worth it.

[liopoil]

My guess is that 3-pile is ~40% now, and above 50% in Colony games.

[Tables]

I'm talking about ending on three piles, province depletion or colony depletion. Anyone got any numbers on it, or are able to check? I've looked at council room but can't see a way to check it on there.

Dude, don't try to argue with rickert over on BGG. It's just not worth it.

Advice ignored. I just won the argument.

[Mic Qsenoch]

I went and read the thread and now my blood pressure is too high

[liopoil]

I went and read the thread and now my blood pressure is too high

Ugh, I'm angry too now.

[Tables]

I do hope you guys are angry at him, not at me .

[LastFootnote]

Rickert is a rabid fan of Donald's games in general and Dominion specifically, which is great. But he's just such a jerk.

If I recall correctly, he recently made a reference to his grandchildren, which surprised me. I would have guessed he was 14.

EDIT: According to his f.DS profile, he's 63.

[Tables]

This might be getting a little RSPish but, in general I've found people seem to get less open to new ideas and generally more stubborn the older they get. Maybe that's why. Although I do agree he doesn't seem like a 60+ year old.

[pacovf]

One thing I've learned from that thread is that you don't want to Google-Image-search LFN's bgg avatar.

[eHalcyon]

What is the goal in Dominion? Is it to end the game with the most points?

Many beginners think that, but it isn't correct. The goal in (2 player) Dominion is to end the game when you have the most points.

You might want to fix your second sentence.  You mean to ask, "Is it to have the most points when the game ends?"

[liopoil]

Wow, when I read the post I glossed right over that, assuming it said what the saying says.

[LastFootnote]

One thing I've learned from that thread is that you don't want to Google-Image-search LFN's bgg avatar.

I assume it just comes up with Disgaea stuff. Is it that bad?

EDIT: Huh, there's a lot of viscera in the "Visually similar images" for some reason. Is that what you're referring to?

[pacovf]

One thing I've learned from that thread is that you don't want to Google-Image-search LFN's bgg avatar.

I assume it just comes up with Disgaea stuff. Is it that bad?

EDIT: Huh, there's a lot of viscera in the "Visually similar images" for some reason. Is that what you're referring to?

I was trying to find out what it was, but somehow Google thinks entrails are visually similar (it does show Disgaea results too).

EDIT: yeah.

[jsh357]

Man, I replied and then read this thread.  I should have stayed away from the beehive.

[Tables]

Also, I do still want to find out actual data regarding this, preferably that's more recent. I don't have the know-how to look it up myself. It wasn't JUST because of that BGG thread, I am actually curious.

[Arctic Penguin]

Without doing anything automated and just to get a very rough estimate, I glanced through 57 pro games between Stef and Mic Qsenoch. There were 20 resignations, 19 three pile endings, and 18 emptied Provinces/Colonies. It's hard to say if the resignations would have split differently if they were played out. It seems like a 50:50 breakdown is a pretty good rough estimate for high level games, but obviously that could vary a lot depending on each person's playing style.

[michaeljb]

I hacked together a script to scrape a given fds thread for game logs, then read those logs and report on how the games ended. The script will even follow youtube links and get game log links out of the video's description.

I ran it against the threads for the playoff round of GokoDom III, Dominion League Season 7, and the division A&B reporting threads of the Dominion League Seasons 1, 3, 4, and 5 (season 7 didn't segregate reporting based on division). It's hitting an error I haven't worked out yet when trying to scrape Seasons 2 and 6.

Not every game played as part of those competitions were reported in the respective threads, so the sample could still be larger (and I could run it against more threads but it's slow and I wanted to make this post eventually).

The aggregate is 281 games played.

With the possible exception of Season 7, I would say all these games constitute high-level play; the season 7 thread is the only one including game reports across all divisions of the league instead of just the top 2, but cutting out those out doesn't affect the overall total percentages by more than 2 percentage points in any category.



PS the Dominion Online logs don't show how many piles are empty at the end, so the checking for the endgame is done in this order:
- did a player resign?
- was the string "gains Colony" detected enough times to empty the Colony pile?
- was the string "gains Province" detected enough times to empty the Province pile?
- it must have ended due to piles

Therefore, for example if Province and three other piles run out, the game is reported as ending on Provinces here.

[liopoil]

So if you take out the resigned games, we have ~38% ending in 3-pile. Strangely the percentage is lower for colony games, but there are only 29 colony games total.

[werothegreat]

"I'm right because that's what I saw rah"

Okay, this is just my own anecdotes against his anecdotes, but I would solidly agree that 1/3 to 1/2 of the time games end on piles.  Even IRL.  This guy has definitely not yet played a Messenger/Magpie game.  Or an IGG game.  Or a Vineyards/Stonemason game.  Or a Masterpiece/Feodum game.  Or an Ironworks/Silk Road game...

[DStu]

PS the Dominion Online logs don't show how many piles are empty at the end, so the checking for the endgame is done in this order:
- did a player resign?
- was the string "gains Colony" detected enough times to empty the Colony pile?
- was the string "gains Province" detected enough times to empty the Province pile?
- it must have ended due to piles

edge-case: Ambassador.

[Awaclus]

PS the Dominion Online logs don't show how many piles are empty at the end, so the checking for the endgame is done in this order:
- did a player resign?
- was the string "gains Colony" detected enough times to empty the Colony pile?
- was the string "gains Province" detected enough times to empty the Province pile?
- it must have ended due to piles

edge-case: Ambassador.

Still, the game must have ended due to piles if nobody resigned, Colonies weren't gained enough to empty the pile and Provinces weren't gained enough to empty the pile.

[michaeljb]

If the first 7 Provinces were bought normally, then I play Ambassador, returning 1 or 2, my opponent will have the 8th gain of a Province, but the pile won't be empty. Then the game could end on piles with no more Provinces being gained, and my script will conclude it ended on Provinces.

Or if the last Province does get bought+gained in the normal way, my script will think "not 8" Provinces were gained and conclude the game ended on piles.

The script needs some work if it's going to be used on anything else ever again