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Author Topic: Soothsayer v Witch  (Read 4836 times)

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werothegreat

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Soothsayer v Witch
« on: April 16, 2015, 11:31:03 am »
+4

So I've been running some rather crude simulations with Chris' DominionSim (I'm still having trouble figuring out how to tell the computer to buy cards the way I do), and if we just substitute in Soothsayer for Witch in his DoubleWitch code, and play DoubleSS against DoubleWitch, Witch comes out a little bit better.  What's interesting is that adding a 3rd Soothsayer pushes it a percentage point in DoubleSS's favor, which is weird, because DoubleSS seems to do better against BigMoney than TripleSS (though both trounce BM quite nicely).  Now, if you run all three together (DoubleWitch, DoubleSS, BigMoney), quite obviously Big Money loses, but Soothsayer seems to mostly come in only a few points ahead of it: BM takes 10 Curses on average, DSS takes 6, and DW takes 4.

My personal (possibly wrong) guess is that this is because Witch just sees SS as another Witch that draws it another card, and makes good use of that, especially since Witch draws extra cards anyway, almost turning Witch into a Smithy, and SS's Gold-gain doesn't seem to be enough to overcome this.  The card draw (which only Witch is getting here) means that Witch cycles more, which means Witch gets played more.

Here's where it gets more interesting: add in a bot that buys one Witch, then one Soothsayer (preferring to play Witch).  In the 3-player game, DW still narrowly wins.  But if we drop the BM player, WSS now narrowly wins.  In both cases, WSS takes fewer Curses and gains more Golds; what exactly is it about having that third player that gives DoubleWitch the edge?

Now things get weirder.  If we throw DoubleWitch, DoubleSoothsayer and Witch/Soothsayer all in the same game, now DSS is the favorite.  But it's not by much:

SS/Witch   32.5% (3254)
Double Witch   30.4% (3036)
Double SS   37.1% (3710)

DSS ends up taking more Curses, but also more Provinces!

I think the lesson here is that adding a third player just fucks up everything and I should probably go do grown-up people things now.

Oh, right, a reason for posting this *not* in the Simulations forum: anyone with real-game experience with Soothsayer have any thoughts on this?
« Last Edit: April 16, 2015, 11:32:07 am by werothegreat »
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DG

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2015, 01:15:11 pm »
+1

Soothesayers are strange beasts in multiplayer. You get this period with the council room effect, lots of soothsayers played with lots of extra cards, and then it grinds to a halt when the last curse goes. There's then a question of how much value the soothsayer gives as a gold gainer, and how much value a witch has for drawing in a curse heavy deck (which is worse in 3 player). I'm not surprised they are giving you odd results.

On the simulation side, make sure you're not buying the witch or soothsayer too late in multiplayer. Only ten plays are needed to empty the curses so do the scripts need to force the purchase of the 5th or 6th attack? Make sure you're also getting the purchasing rules right with 12 victory cards in the supply.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2015, 01:17:02 pm »
+1

Is it always better to play Witch over Soothsayer?  If the Curses are out (or, say, if there's a Lighthouse), then Soothsayer doesn't give opponents draw, so it's just Gain a Gold vs. +2 Cards.  I imagine Gain a Gold could be better in a case where Curses are out earlyish but economy is still being built?
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Robz888

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2015, 01:29:30 pm »
+4

It doesn't really surprise me that Soothsayer performs better if you start adding more players. Many-player Cursing games are almost a frantic scramble for points from the get-go. It's much harder to build engines that overcome this. So money-gainers are better here than usual, and Soothsayer is a money-gainer that is also letting you participate in the junking war. When your deck is taking on Curses, Witch's ancillary benefit of +Cards isn't that good, whereas Soothsayer's ancillary benefit of "gain a Gold" actually is good. Gold is better than +2 cards when your deck is full of junk.

So I imagine you are seeing some combination of that, and possibly it matters how you are programming the thing.
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werothegreat

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2015, 02:12:07 pm »
0

Is it always better to play Witch over Soothsayer?  If the Curses are out (or, say, if there's a Lighthouse), then Soothsayer doesn't give opponents draw, so it's just Gain a Gold vs. +2 Cards.  I imagine Gain a Gold could be better in a case where Curses are out earlyish but economy is still being built?

Good point, but that doesn't seem to make much of a difference to the simulation.
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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2015, 02:27:10 pm »
+1

Is it always better to play Witch over Soothsayer?  If the Curses are out (or, say, if there's a Lighthouse), then Soothsayer doesn't give opponents draw, so it's just Gain a Gold vs. +2 Cards.  I imagine Gain a Gold could be better in a case where Curses are out earlyish but economy is still being built?

I imagine gain a Gold is better every time the +2 cards isn't helping you buy a Province (or a Duchy, if it's that late).
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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2015, 02:28:06 pm »
+1

Is it always better to play Witch over Soothsayer?  If the Curses are out (or, say, if there's a Lighthouse), then Soothsayer doesn't give opponents draw, so it's just Gain a Gold vs. +2 Cards.  I imagine Gain a Gold could be better in a case where Curses are out earlyish but economy is still being built?

I imagine gain a Gold is better every time the +2 cards isn't helping you buy a Province (or a Duchy, if it's that late).

Well, you don't exactly know that ahead of time.

..unless..... SCOUT!
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Polk5440

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2015, 02:32:13 pm »
+2

How many games does each simulation do? Might want to up the number of games.

It's not very surprising that three soothsayers is not worse (slighly better?) than two. Witch draws, so that increases the chance that two witches collide. Soothsayer does not draw (for you) and in fact gets you extra golds so there is probably room in the deck for another terminal.
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c4master

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2015, 10:15:04 am »
0

It doesn't really surprise me that Soothsayer performs better if you start adding more players. Many-player Cursing games are almost a frantic scramble for points from the get-go. It's much harder to build engines that overcome this. So money-gainers are better here than usual, and Soothsayer is a money-gainer that is also letting you participate in the junking war. When your deck is taking on Curses, Witch's ancillary benefit of +Cards isn't that good, whereas Soothsayer's ancillary benefit of "gain a Gold" actually is good. Gold is better than +2 cards when your deck is full of junk.

So I imagine you are seeing some combination of that, and possibly it matters how you are programming the thing.
Good point!

There is also another thing to be mentioned. If two players go for cursing and a third player doesn't do so, he loses the curse split 10-5-5. That is only 5 curses more than the Witch players. You only need to find something that overcomes this difference of 5 curses. Obviously, Soothsayer does this, but it also curses your opponent. Maybe something like Watchtower would do even better in a 3-player-game with 2 playes going for DoubleWitch. Or maybe Explorer can do roughly as well. And any strategy that involves two or three different kingdom cards will almost certainly win against two DoubleWitches.
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DG

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #9 on: April 17, 2015, 10:47:19 am »
0

It doesn't really surprise me that Soothsayer performs better if you start adding more players. Many-player Cursing games are almost a frantic scramble for points from the get-go. It's much harder to build engines that overcome this. So money-gainers are better here than usual, and Soothsayer is a money-gainer that is also letting you participate in the junking war. When your deck is taking on Curses, Witch's ancillary benefit of +Cards isn't that good, whereas Soothsayer's ancillary benefit of "gain a Gold" actually is good. Gold is better than +2 cards when your deck is full of junk.

So I imagine you are seeing some combination of that, and possibly it matters how you are programming the thing.
Good point!

There is also another thing to be mentioned. If two players go for cursing and a third player doesn't do so, he loses the curse split 10-5-5. That is only 5 curses more than the Witch players. You only need to find something that overcomes this difference of 5 curses. Obviously, Soothsayer does this, but it also curses your opponent. Maybe something like Watchtower would do even better in a 3-player-game with 2 playes going for DoubleWitch. Or maybe Explorer can do roughly as well. And any strategy that involves two or three different kingdom cards will almost certainly win against two DoubleWitches.

You need to be careful with the 10-5-5 philosophy. If the split ends up as 10-7-3 then the 3 has a very clear advantage.
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pacovf

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #10 on: April 17, 2015, 10:59:54 am »
0

The solution is simple, play a 6p game. Now the split is 10-8-8-8-8-8.
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werothegreat

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #11 on: April 17, 2015, 11:01:00 am »
+2

The solution is simple, play a 6p game. Now the split is 10-8-8-8-8-8.

Or, everyone except one guy got really lucky with Moats, and the split is 50-0-0-0-0-0.
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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2015, 12:24:28 pm »
+1

The solution is simple, play a 6p game. Now the split is 10-8-8-8-8-8.

Or, everyone except one guy got really lucky with Moats, and the split is 50-0-0-0-0-0.

50 curses - where's the problem? Just draw your deck and play forge.
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joel88s

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2015, 02:27:39 pm »
+1

Whenever I have 50 curses I just never draw the Forge with the 50 curses.
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markusin

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Re: Soothsayer v Witch
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2015, 02:30:12 pm »
+1

Whenever I have 50 curses I just never draw the Forge with the 50 curses.
"...I just never...50 curses."
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