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Author Topic: Expedition  (Read 4725 times)

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Geronimoo

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Expedition
« on: April 06, 2015, 06:02:52 am »
+3

So is Expedition better than Silver???

In Mountebank Big Money:
Silver/Silver opening 48% - Silver/Expedition opening 47%
Silver/Silver opening 44% - Expedition (with $3 available)/? opening 51%

In Familiar BM:
Potion/Silver opening 48% - Potion/Expedition opening 48%

In Goons BM:
Goons BM 40% - Goons BM (buying Expedition turn 3) 58%  -->> that's huge!!

Endgame tactics:
Big Money (using Expedition in endgame) 49% - Big Money (no Expedition) 42%
Buying Expedition over Silver when there are 6 Provinces left is optimal.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2015, 06:05:18 am by Geronimoo »
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nate_w

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2015, 07:55:35 am »
0

The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.
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enfynet

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2015, 09:51:29 am »
0

The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.
It's more like playing Double Lab on T2 or T3. It increases your hand by two without costing an action.
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DG

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2015, 10:05:12 am »
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If you open potion/silver looking for familiars, I suspect the relevant question is whether to buy the expedition on turn 3. I'm guessing it's best when you have a 4 coin hand on turn 3 (as opposed to 3 coin or 5 coin).
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Kirian

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2015, 11:13:38 am »
0

The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.

I think you're underestimating the power of a single copper on T2. With a key $5 on the board, T1 Nomad Camp with a 60% shot at getting the $5 on T2 is a common gamble.

T1 Expedition gives a 90% chance of $5+ on T2, and 30% chance of $6.  Those are good odds.  And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

Obviously opening 4/3 is going to suck compared to 3/4... but T1 Expedition with $4 is a 60% shot at $5 on T2, as good as NC.  Alas, no chance of $6 here.
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2015, 11:22:43 am »
+1

And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.
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liopoil

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2015, 11:34:44 am »
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The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.

I think you're underestimating the power of a single copper on T2. With a key $5 on the board, T1 Nomad Camp with a 60% shot at getting the $5 on T2 is a common gamble.
*40%. Also nomad camp is a card that stays in your deck and hopefully is a useful card. I agree than an expedition opening will be rarely good, especially because of what Mic said about the shuffle.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2015, 11:54:28 am by liopoil »
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pacovf

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2015, 11:37:01 am »
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And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.

Thank you! I thought I was missing something, with all these people raving about T1 expedition.
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Kirian

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2015, 02:20:28 pm »
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And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.

Later on average, yes, but the same chance of T3/4 as someone who opens 5/-.  On T2 you draw all but 3 of your cards; in the 90% of cases where you then get your $5, your T3 hand is EC[C|E], plus two of the eight cards in your discard, which includes your $5 buy.  So you have a 25% chance of playing it T3, and a 62.5% chance of playing it T4, with a 12.5% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 5/- has a 44.4% chance of playing it on both T3 and T4, with 11.1% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 3/4 without expedition, however, has a 0% chance of playing the $5 on T3/4.
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Mic Qsenoch

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Re: Expedition
« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2015, 04:37:54 pm »
0

And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.

Later on average, yes, but the same chance of T3/4 as someone who opens 5/-.  On T2 you draw all but 3 of your cards; in the 90% of cases where you then get your $5, your T3 hand is EC[C|E], plus two of the eight cards in your discard, which includes your $5 buy.  So you have a 25% chance of playing it T3, and a 62.5% chance of playing it T4, with a 12.5% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 5/- has a 44.4% chance of playing it on both T3 and T4, with 11.1% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 3/4 without expedition, however, has a 0% chance of playing the $5 on T3/4.

For sufficiently loose definitions of "same". Plus your numbers are wrong. There's only a 1/11 chance your opening 5 misses the shuffle on 5/-, which is only 9.1%.

I am not trying to argue against opening Expedition btw. It's got to be right sometimes. I am just saying, let's get the numbers right.
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