Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: [1]

Author Topic: Expedition  (Read 2184 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Geronimoo

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1038
  • Respect: +805
    • View Profile
    • Geronimoo's Dominion Simulator
Expedition
« on: April 06, 2015, 06:02:52 am »
+3

So is Expedition better than Silver???

In Mountebank Big Money:
Silver/Silver opening 48% - Silver/Expedition opening 47%
Silver/Silver opening 44% - Expedition (with $3 available)/? opening 51%

In Familiar BM:
Potion/Silver opening 48% - Potion/Expedition opening 48%

In Goons BM:
Goons BM 40% - Goons BM (buying Expedition turn 3) 58%  -->> that's huge!!

Endgame tactics:
Big Money (using Expedition in endgame) 49% - Big Money (no Expedition) 42%
Buying Expedition over Silver when there are 6 Provinces left is optimal.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2015, 06:05:18 am by Geronimoo »
Logged

nate_w

  • Navigator
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 75
  • Respect: +114
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2015, 07:55:35 am »
0

The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.
Logged

enfynet

  • Torturer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1641
  • Respect: +1082
    • View Profile
    • JD's Custom Clubs
Re: Expedition
« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2015, 09:51:29 am »
0

The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.
It's more like playing Double Lab on T2 or T3. It increases your hand by two without costing an action.
Logged
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious."

DG

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 3898
  • Respect: +2419
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2015, 10:05:12 am »
0

If you open potion/silver looking for familiars, I suspect the relevant question is whether to buy the expedition on turn 3. I'm guessing it's best when you have a 4 coin hand on turn 3 (as opposed to 3 coin or 5 coin).
Logged

Kirian

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6968
  • Shuffle iT Username: Kirian
  • An Unbalanced Equation
  • Respect: +9095
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2015, 11:13:38 am »
0

The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.

I think you're underestimating the power of a single copper on T2. With a key $5 on the board, T1 Nomad Camp with a 60% shot at getting the $5 on T2 is a common gamble.

T1 Expedition gives a 90% chance of $5+ on T2, and 30% chance of $6.  Those are good odds.  And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

Obviously opening 4/3 is going to suck compared to 3/4... but T1 Expedition with $4 is a 60% shot at $5 on T2, as good as NC.  Alas, no chance of $6 here.
Logged
Kirian's Law of f.DS jokes:  Any sufficiently unexplained joke is indistinguishable from serious conversation.

Mic Qsenoch

  • 2015 DS Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1596
  • Respect: +3971
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2015, 11:22:43 am »
+1

And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.
Logged

liopoil

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2581
  • Respect: +2458
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2015, 11:34:44 am »
0

The cost of buying expedition is always the same as buying silver, but the benefit changes dramatically over the course of the game. Drawing an extra copper and estate, not a big deal. Drawing an extra goons and village - big deal.

I think opening expedition has to be one of the WORST uses of the event. It's sort of like laboratory in my mind: not a card you are excited about getting on a 5/2 opening. Solid card in an engine.

I think you're underestimating the power of a single copper on T2. With a key $5 on the board, T1 Nomad Camp with a 60% shot at getting the $5 on T2 is a common gamble.
*40%. Also nomad camp is a card that stays in your deck and hopefully is a useful card. I agree than an expedition opening will be rarely good, especially because of what Mic said about the shuffle.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2015, 11:54:28 am by liopoil »
Logged

pacovf

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3198
  • Multiediting poster
  • Respect: +3508
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2015, 11:37:01 am »
0

And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.

Thank you! I thought I was missing something, with all these people raving about T1 expedition.
Logged
pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.

Kirian

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6968
  • Shuffle iT Username: Kirian
  • An Unbalanced Equation
  • Respect: +9095
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2015, 02:20:28 pm »
0

And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.

Later on average, yes, but the same chance of T3/4 as someone who opens 5/-.  On T2 you draw all but 3 of your cards; in the 90% of cases where you then get your $5, your T3 hand is EC[C|E], plus two of the eight cards in your discard, which includes your $5 buy.  So you have a 25% chance of playing it T3, and a 62.5% chance of playing it T4, with a 12.5% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 5/- has a 44.4% chance of playing it on both T3 and T4, with 11.1% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 3/4 without expedition, however, has a 0% chance of playing the $5 on T3/4.
Logged
Kirian's Law of f.DS jokes:  Any sufficiently unexplained joke is indistinguishable from serious conversation.

Mic Qsenoch

  • 2015 DS Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1596
  • Respect: +3971
    • View Profile
Re: Expedition
« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2015, 04:37:54 pm »
0

And the odds of playing that key card on T3/4 are just as high as the opponent who opened 5/2 and got it then.

This is wrong because Expedition causes a shuffle. You will play your $5 later on average if you get it using Expedition.

Later on average, yes, but the same chance of T3/4 as someone who opens 5/-.  On T2 you draw all but 3 of your cards; in the 90% of cases where you then get your $5, your T3 hand is EC[C|E], plus two of the eight cards in your discard, which includes your $5 buy.  So you have a 25% chance of playing it T3, and a 62.5% chance of playing it T4, with a 12.5% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 5/- has a 44.4% chance of playing it on both T3 and T4, with 11.1% chance of missing the shuffle.

The person who opened 3/4 without expedition, however, has a 0% chance of playing the $5 on T3/4.

For sufficiently loose definitions of "same". Plus your numbers are wrong. There's only a 1/11 chance your opening 5 misses the shuffle on 5/-, which is only 9.1%.

I am not trying to argue against opening Expedition btw. It's got to be right sometimes. I am just saying, let's get the numbers right.
Logged
Pages: [1]
 

Page created in 0.071 seconds with 21 queries.