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[tko]

I know there is a problem with my end game, but I'm not sure how to correct it.
 
In this game, on Turn 16, I get a 16-coin/2-buy turn where I buy 2 Provinces, leaving only 1 remaining... should I have bought Province/Dutchy instead?
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20110620-042225-35794a0f.html

[Axe Knight]

Yes.  If they can win simply by buying the last Province on their next turn, don't do it.  You're better off putting the pressure on them to decide whether they want to take the penultimate Province rather than putting yourself in a dicey situation.  If they can't take that last Province, no problem, just take it the next turn, or keep gaining points until you're caught up, and hope they can't.  I've even won games buying two-three Duchies per turn when I'm behind towards the end, rather than making a rush for the Provinces.  This is why keeping track of points is a must.

[theory]

PPR time!

Buy the first (i.e., third-to-last) Province, for sure.  Now you have 21VP, $8, and multiple buys, and your opponent has 24VP.  You can take the lead instead of buying the second-to-last Province (Fairgrounds/Estate to take you to 26VP), and you should do it.  If you only had one buy, then you might as well go for the Province because you can only tie instead of taking the lead by avoiding the penultimate Province.


Axe Knight's analysis is slightly incorrect, in that it is a little too cautious.  You should go for the Province when you can only tie with your lesser buy, because if you buy a Duchy instead you are only painting yourself into a corner, as your best chance of winning is hoping for back-to-back Provinces rather than a total collapse by your opponent's deck.

[WanderingWinder]

Read this:
http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/28/the-penultimate-province-rule/
It's the building block of endgame play. There are times where you should break it, but ~95% of the time where it's a decision, following it is the way to go.

[Axe Knight]

PPR time!

Buy the first (i.e., third-to-last) Province, for sure.  Now you have 21VP, $8, and multiple buys, and your opponent has 24VP.  You can take the lead instead of buying the second-to-last Province (Duchy/Estate to take you to 25VP), and you should do it.  If you only had one buy, then you might as well go for the Province because you can only tie instead of taking the lead by avoiding the penultimate Province.


Axe Knight's analysis is slightly incorrect, in that it is a little too cautious.  You should go for the Province when you can only tie with your lesser buy, because if you buy a Duchy instead you are only painting yourself into a corner, as your best chance of winning is hoping for back-to-back Provinces rather than a total collapse by your opponent's deck.

Perhaps that's something I could work on then.  I guess I've just lost too many times when I'm behind, buy the penultimate Province, and then lose when they take the last one, and get somewhat conservative.  I do factor in how much I'm behind, and how much my opponent has actually hit $8.

[DG]

should I have bought Province/Dutchy instead?

No. You should have bought Province/Fairground or Garden/Garden/Garden/Garden/Copper.