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Author Topic: Neat and potentially useful card interactions  (Read 504447 times)

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JW

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #325 on: November 20, 2015, 01:51:02 pm »
0

Because of the 2 event limit, you can't simply look at the chance that a certain event comes up before you draw 10 kingdom cards alone. You also need to know whether it is the first or second event, as future events won't be used.

Fortunately, every event has an equal probability of showing up, so if you calculate the average number of events that show up in a game, then that number is divided evenly among the 20 (21 with Summon) events. You can determine the distribution of the number of events that show up with the negative hypergeometric distribution. As of Adventures and 20 events, jonts26 did the following calculation of the chance for different numbers of events (I believe assuming 235 Kingdom cards).

I should have actually used negative hyper geometric instead of a naive binomial in my last post. Real probabilities are (for all cards):

0 events: 43.5%
1 event: 35.5%
2+ events: 21.0%
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Ampharos

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #326 on: November 20, 2015, 02:16:39 pm »
0

Because of the 2 event limit, you can't simply look at the chance that a certain event comes up before you draw 10 kingdom cards alone. You also need to know whether it is the first or second event, as future events won't be used.

Fortunately, every event has an equal probability of showing up, so if you calculate the average number of events that show up in a game, then that number is divided evenly among the 20 (21 with Summon) events. You can determine the distribution of the number of events that show up with the negative hypergeometric distribution. As of Adventures and 20 events, jonts26 did the following calculation of the chance for different numbers of events (I believe assuming 235 Kingdom cards).

I should have actually used negative hyper geometric instead of a naive binomial in my last post. Real probabilities are (for all cards):

0 events: 43.5%
1 event: 35.5%
2+ events: 21.0%

Is the 2 event limit just recommendation by Donald X. or considered law? 
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Accatitippi

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #327 on: November 20, 2015, 02:21:46 pm »
0

Because of the 2 event limit, you can't simply look at the chance that a certain event comes up before you draw 10 kingdom cards alone. You also need to know whether it is the first or second event, as future events won't be used.

Fortunately, every event has an equal probability of showing up, so if you calculate the average number of events that show up in a game, then that number is divided evenly among the 20 (21 with Summon) events. You can determine the distribution of the number of events that show up with the negative hypergeometric distribution. As of Adventures and 20 events, jonts26 did the following calculation of the chance for different numbers of events (I believe assuming 235 Kingdom cards).

I should have actually used negative hyper geometric instead of a naive binomial in my last post. Real probabilities are (for all cards):

0 events: 43.5%
1 event: 35.5%
2+ events: 21.0%

Is the 2 event limit just recommendation by Donald X. or considered law?
, or, like the Alchemy recommendation, comes from somebody else entirely?
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JW

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #328 on: November 20, 2015, 02:23:16 pm »
0

Is the 2 event limit just recommendation by Donald X. or considered law?

Recommended by the Adventures rulebook, I believe, and presumably it will be the implementation in random games on Making Fun. It's also standard in the randomizer app I use, and probably other apps as well.
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Accatitippi

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #329 on: November 20, 2015, 02:40:28 pm »
0

Because of the 2 event limit, you can't simply look at the chance that a certain event comes up before you draw 10 kingdom cards alone. You also need to know whether it is the first or second event, as future events won't be used.

Fortunately, every event has an equal probability of showing up, so if you calculate the average number of events that show up in a game, then that number is divided evenly among the 20 (21 with Summon) events. You can determine the distribution of the number of events that show up with the negative hypergeometric distribution. As of Adventures and 20 events, jonts26 did the following calculation of the chance for different numbers of events (I believe assuming 235 Kingdom cards).

I should have actually used negative hyper geometric instead of a naive binomial in my last post. Real probabilities are (for all cards):

0 events: 43.5%
1 event: 35.5%
2+ events: 21.0%
This, if I'm not wrong, gives:
0.355*1/20+0.21*2/20=3.875% chance of drawing a specific event as the only event or as one of the first two events.
This gives a 0.4% deviation from the unadjusted value of 10/236.
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Ampharos

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #330 on: November 20, 2015, 03:02:20 pm »
0

Okay, we'll go with limiting them to 2 since it makes things easier.  I ran some numbers, and chances of 1 event: 35.66%, and chances of 2 events: 22.38%, which are really close to jonts numbers. 

We're looking for one specific event.
Odds of it happening in a 1 event game times odds of a 1 event game = 4.7% * .35 = 1.67%
Odds of it happening in a 2 event game times odds of a 2 event game = 9.5% * .22 = 2.1%

Add them together, and you get the odds of a specific event occurring in any game = 3.77%

Odds of any two kingdom cards occurring in the same game: 90/55460 = .16%

Multiply them, and you get .00611792% or 1/16,399

This is a lot closer to your method's result, Accatitippi.

-----------

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Real answer: MANY MANY GAMES
« Last Edit: November 20, 2015, 03:07:11 pm by Ampharos »
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AdamH

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #331 on: November 20, 2015, 03:20:03 pm »
+3

This is funny because you don't actually need Summon to make Watchtower/Death Cart work. Summon only makes it slightly better.
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LastFootnote

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #332 on: November 20, 2015, 03:28:31 pm »
+1

I don't think the combo works anyway. The Ruins visit the discard pile, covering Death Cart and invoking the lose-track rule. It should definitely work with Trader, though.
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #333 on: November 20, 2015, 03:39:32 pm »
0

Taxman/Stables: Stables often draws you a bunch of cards, so you can Taxman just the right treasure to smooth your economy and hit the price point you need. It also guarantees you a treasure in your next hand. Just watch out for opposing Taxmen.

Donald X.

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #334 on: November 20, 2015, 03:59:21 pm »
+2

Is the 2 event limit just recommendation by Donald X. or considered law?

Recommended by the Adventures rulebook, I believe, and presumably it will be the implementation in random games on Making Fun. It's also standard in the randomizer app I use, and probably other apps as well.
It's a recommendation; I don't remember what led to it but for sure I was involved.

I will recommend that MF provide both "shuffle them into the randomizer" and "have a separate deck of Events and deal out 1-2 every game."
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #335 on: November 20, 2015, 04:45:19 pm »
0

Taxman/Stables: Stables often draws you a bunch of cards, so you can Taxman just the right treasure to smooth your economy and hit the price point you need. It also guarantees you a treasure in your next hand. Just watch out for opposing Taxmen.

I would say this is not incredibly noteworthy.  Yes, Taxman likes treasures in your hand.  But you can get them into your hand with anything -- Lab, Governor, Tactician, etc.  It's kind of like saying Scrying Pool synergizes with Great Hall -- ya, it does, I guess, but it's nothing I'm going to write home about.
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A Ladder

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #336 on: November 20, 2015, 05:25:10 pm »
0

Taxman/Stables: Stables often draws you a bunch of cards, so you can Taxman just the right treasure to smooth your economy and hit the price point you need. It also guarantees you a treasure in your next hand. Just watch out for opposing Taxmen.

To piggyback on this...
Countinghouse/Stables The coppers you pitch to Stables will come right back into your hand! Also helps by digging for the Countinghouse and cycling your deck faster.

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #337 on: November 22, 2015, 12:11:02 pm »
+11

This combo came up during UConn. Adam used it to win.

Trader/Save (Also, Moat/Save, which is probably even better.)

To have endless protection from attacks, never play your reaction. Instead, spend 1 coin to save it at the end of every turn.  With trader, this is a viable big-money strategy in the face of junkers. With trader, watch out for pillage!!!

Any other UConnbos?
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Voltaire

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #338 on: November 22, 2015, 07:06:53 pm »
+5

This combo came up during UConn. Adam used it to win.

Ah, the perils of being less famous.  ;)
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #339 on: November 22, 2015, 10:55:50 pm »
+2

When Possessing someone, turn all their Disciples into Teachers, and all their Warriors into Heroes.  This is provided they already have a Teacher or Champion, of course.
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #340 on: November 23, 2015, 10:29:27 am »
0

Trader/Save (Also, Moat/Save, which is probably even better.)

DEPENDS ON THE KINGDOM LOL
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AdamH

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #341 on: November 23, 2015, 10:30:26 am »
+3

Summon/Transmogrify was pretty good. Grsbmd used it quite a few times in the finals to good effect.

Transmogrify's main drawback is that it's really slow and can miss shuffles, but Summon gets it in play right away if you want it.
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ben_king

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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #342 on: November 23, 2015, 11:25:11 am »
0

Summon/Transmogrify was pretty good. Grsbmd used it quite a few times in the finals to good effect.

Transmogrify's main drawback is that it's really slow and can miss shuffles, but Summon gets it in play right away if you want it.

Along those same lines, you could probably also Prince a Transmogrify and have it be pretty good, though I've never actually tried this.  Since it's the start of your turn when you play it, you can call it back right away and discard it every turn (I think Prince should still be able to set it aside even though it was on the Tavern Mat instantaneously).  It would be similar in spirit one of those Procession-based engines, I guess.  On some boards, it might be great, but a lot of times, there's probably something better to Prince.

Edit: :( I guess we'll just have to stick with Summon + Transmogrify
« Last Edit: November 24, 2015, 09:10:05 am by grsbmd »
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #343 on: November 23, 2015, 11:32:39 am »
+2

Summon/Transmogrify was pretty good. Grsbmd used it quite a few times in the finals to good effect.

Transmogrify's main drawback is that it's really slow and can miss shuffles, but Summon gets it in play right away if you want it.

Along those same lines, you could probably also Prince a Transmogrify and have it be pretty good, though I've never actually tried this.  Since it's the start of your turn when you play it, you can call it back right away and discard it every turn (I think Prince should still be able to set it aside even though it was on the Tavern Mat instantaneously).  It would be similar in spirit one of those Procession-based engines, I guess.  On some boards, it might be great, but a lot of times, there's probably something better to Prince.

This doesn't work, unfortunately. Prince loses track.
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #344 on: November 24, 2015, 08:26:54 am »
+2

I don't know how well known these combos already are, but they haven't been mentioned here:

Ball/Bridge Troll: Like with the other cost reduction cards, a 5$ hand can give you two 5-costs. What makes this special is that the drawback of Ball is basically mitigated by your opponent playing a Brdige Troll anyway.

Inheritance/Followers No longer do you have a crippling attack that self-junks you, but a crippling attack which gains you a nice card on top. The only problem is having to hit eight and seven once, but the combo is still great when you inherit something after playing followers a few times (or the lovely 7$ hands before hitting Province, obviously)
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #345 on: November 24, 2015, 08:45:33 am »
0

I don't know how well known these combos already are, but they haven't been mentioned here:

Ball/Bridge Troll: Like with the other cost reduction cards, a 5$ hand can give you two 5-costs. What makes this special is that the drawback of Ball is basically mitigated by your opponent playing a Brdige Troll anyway.

Inheritance/Followers No longer do you have a crippling attack that self-junks you, but a crippling attack which gains you a nice card on top. The only problem is having to hit eight and seven once, but the combo is still great when you inherit something after playing followers a few times (or the lovely 7$ hands before hitting Province, obviously)

I'm pretty sure Followers is a combo unto itself. Once you have it, you win.
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #346 on: November 24, 2015, 10:39:25 am »
+1

I'm pretty sure Followers is a combo unto itself. Once you have it, you win.

Only when the kingdom is weak. In strong kingdoms, it's not even worth getting always.
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #347 on: November 24, 2015, 02:09:06 pm »
+1

Ball/Bridge Troll: Like with the other cost reduction cards, a 5$ hand can give you two 5-costs. What makes this special is that the drawback of Ball is basically mitigated by your opponent playing a Brdige Troll anyway.

This can be a great combo, but also a trap if you're not careful. Bridge Troll does absolutely nothing to help you reach $5 to buy Ball (because it doesn't lower the cost of Events). Many times I bought a Bridge Troll early and then waited for another $5 hand that never came (or came too late). Make sure you have the real economy to make the combo actually work.
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #348 on: November 25, 2015, 12:20:09 am »
0

Secret Chamber/Moat

Reveal SC, draw Moat into hand.
Reveal Moat to be protected from Attack.
Reveal SC again to put Moat back on top of deck.
If you know your opponent isn't going to play any more Attacks, put SC on top as well.
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Re: Neat and potentially useful card interactions
« Reply #349 on: November 25, 2015, 01:05:44 am »
0

Secret Chamber/Moat

Reveal SC, draw Moat into hand.
Reveal Moat to be protected from Attack.
Reveal SC again to put Moat back on top of deck.
If you know your opponent isn't going to play any more Attacks, put SC on top as well.

I would say that is neat, but it it must be compared to opportunity cost.  Moat and SC are both generally bad $2 cards, and attack cards that are worth buying are (obviously I'm generalizing here) usually good cads.  So getting the Moat and SC in the first place (much less having enough of each of them to reliably connect in the manner you describe) should be compared to having other better cards instead.
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