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[AdamH]

Game log

YouTube video

I don't know how I lost this game, I played Big Money with Trading Post and a single Black Market and I only had 4 Provinces and 2 Duchies at turn 21. The only misplay I can think of was potentially picking up a Marauder from the Black Market, but I still think that might have slowed my opponent down more than me, I'm not sure.

I can't imagine my opponent's strategy being any better than big money here, and it still seems to me like he got very lucky and I got very unlucky. On the other hand, YMYOSL and I'm not ready to accept that yet.

So what happened? How did his strategy perform anything close to reasonably well, and how did I lose this game?

[DG]

If you're going to play it simple then black market, a good terminal from the black market, plus a choice of highway or venture will work. Trading post doesn't fit into that. You probably do need to compete for black market cards and highways if your opponent tries the 'throw it all together and see what happens' action deck. I wouldn't put it past the top black market players to make something out of that action deck but most players will get an interesting deck that will never reach its potential.

[Awaclus]

The most important card on this board is Masterpiece.

Turn 3 you should have gotten the Smithy from the BM deck. Actually the Smithy and the Wharf are the only reasons to even go for Black Market here. It's good with Masterpiece because it gives you big hands and big hands are good with Masterpiece. Trading Post, on the other hand, is not amazing with Masterpiece since the trashing won't be as useful, the Silver-gaining won't be as useful, and the Trading Post makes your hands worse by being in them. I guess getting one Trading Post over a $5 Masterpiece might not be horrible (I still wouldn't do it myself), but getting it over a Smithy is.

The Marauder was awful. That could've been a $7 Masterpiece. Turn 11 you skipped another $7 Masterpiece when you already had 2 Golds, which was also pretty bad.

I also don't think your opponent was particularly lucky. If he gets all of the Highways and a decent number of Processions and Ironworks, even with 10 or so junk cards in his deck, it's going to work out eventually. I think it's still worse than a Masterpiece centered big money strategy here, though.

[Mic Qsenoch]

I think Awaclus is absolutely right about the Smithy, so assuming you get that then Masterpieces are a lot better. But Masterpiece is pretty terrible without some sort of terminal draw (I'm not sure one Smithy is enough) and I would definitely prefer Golds except with a really big overpay (I don't think $7 is enough).

[AdamH]

OK so it's pretty clear I could have played better here. Masterpiece just didn't enter into the equation for me. (I think I mention it once towards the end of the video or something?)

So a couple of questions: 1. Assuming I don't get Smithy, and let's say I wasn't giving up 3 Silvers for the Marauder, is the Marauder still bad even when you don't compare it to those things? I'm just trying to get a read on exactly how bad it is, because I don't think I have a good one.

2. Yeah if you give the opposing strategy enough time of course it can win a game, but there's some disagreement about whether or not my opponent's strategy is viable. This for me is a very, very clear case of "no" but two other people have said different things.

And of course I get ridiculed a lot for wanting to play Big Money on Black Market boards, and of course I haven't played with Black Market as much as some people. If something other than Big Money is really viable here then I want to know why (and then I need to heavily adjust my read on Black Market).

[Awaclus]

OK so it's pretty clear I could have played better here. Masterpiece just didn't enter into the equation for me. (I think I mention it once towards the end of the video or something?)

So a couple of questions: 1. Assuming I don't get Smithy, and let's say I wasn't giving up 3 Silvers for the Marauder, is the Marauder still bad even when you don't compare it to those things? I'm just trying to get a read on exactly how bad it is, because I don't think I have a good one.

2. Yeah if you give the opposing strategy enough time of course it can win a game, but there's some disagreement about whether or not my opponent's strategy is viable. This for me is a very, very clear case of "no" but two other people have said different things.

And of course I get ridiculed a lot for wanting to play Big Money on Black Market boards, and of course I haven't played with Black Market as much as some people. If something other than Big Money is really viable here then I want to know why (and then I need to heavily adjust my read on Black Market).

1. I wouldn't complain if I somehow magically got a free Marauder here, but I wouldn't buy a Marauder over a Silver.

2. I'd say it's generally worse than big money when you play it optimally, but if your opponent gets all the draw from the Black Market deck, then I think big money can easily lose too. Counting House can also be pretty useful for making a bunch of junk miss the reshuffle if he gets that from the BM deck.

[Mic Qsenoch]

The Marauder is better the earlier you get it. In the first reshuffle there's no question it's better than Silver, maybe turn 6 is a little late but I still like it.

I don't think rushing into heavy Procession/Ironworks is a good way to build the Highway thing either. Would much prefer Black Market/Silver into buying Trading Post/Highways adding the Ironworks/Processions a little later.

[dondon151]

I also don't get the impression that a single Smithy from the BM deck is going to make Masterpiece worth it.

[Awaclus]

I also don't get the impression that a single Smithy from the BM deck is going to make Masterpiece worth it.

Masterpiece is worth it, with the Smithy or without it.

[SCSN]

There's Procession-Armory and a spammable 5 cost... this game shouldn't last beyond T12. Trading Post is terrible because way too slow. With the self-sustaining top-decking you don't really need trashing. Just get a Procession, Armory and Highway each turn until your turns start to explode.

[dondon151]

Masterpiece is worth it, with the Smithy or without it.

Masterpiece isn't worth it, regardless of Smithy.

[qmech]

Even if you mixed up the card names, you could tell from this thread that this is a very complicated Kingdom.

[AdamH]

Masterpiece is worth it, with the Smithy or without it.

Masterpiece isn't worth it, regardless of Smithy.

I remember clearly that Masterpiece+BM beats BM if you buy Masterpiece on $5 and $7 but Gold on $6, I think that was the optimization they found. Seeing that my opponent was going for something I didn't have confidence in makes my objective not to get 4 Provinces as quickly as possible, but rather to get 6 Provinces as quickly as possible. I think Masterpiece is better than Trading Post for that particular goal, but probably combining the two is best. All of this is in the absence of Smithy, which is probably better than Trading Post for Masterpiece+BM.

There's Procession-Armory and a spammable 5 cost... this game shouldn't last beyond T12. Trading Post is terrible because way too slow. With the self-sustaining top-decking you don't really need trashing. Just get a Procession, Armory and Highway each turn until your turns start to explode.

The self-sustaining top-decking is something I hadn't considered. You can play Procession+Armory every turn to top-deck Procession+Armory. This empties piles but it doesn't score points and I don't understand what you mean by "your turns start to explode."

It looks to me like you're using two of your five cards every turn, plus your action, to gain a Highway every turn, so you get to cycle three cards each turn and maybe buy something. Maybe with some Highways in your deck you can make that thing a Province but that doesn't seem reliable at all. There are no Villages or draw in the kingdom so Procession+Procession or Procession+Highway can kind of work but Processioning a Highway doesn't actually do anything and you still aren't drawing cards. You need extremely lucky pulls from the Black Market deck for anything spectacular to come up (that my feeble mind can think of) and where are you getting the actions to play that Black Market?

And T12 has to be a huge exaggeration for length of the game. Let's say you get perfect draws and manage to collide Procession+Armory on T5 in a deck with no trashing. You've now emptied piles on T15, but how do you expect to have more points than Big Money+nothing at that point? You've been having 3-card hands since T5 and you don't get to play any actions. Granted, you're getting a free Peddler (Highway) every turn, but I'm not convinced that this is worth it.

[Mic Qsenoch]

I tried SCSN's thing and sure you can gain a bunch of Highways quickly, then you have a deck with like 6 Processions and not many good targets, you still have 10 junk cards and you'd be lucky to line up enough Highways to gain a Province with Ironworks or Armory.

[dondon151]

Money strategies in this kingdom still need to watch out for even badly constructed engines, because Highway + Saboteur can kill your points and you can't even mass Silvers via Masterpiece as defense.

[Mic Qsenoch]

Money strategies in this kingdom still need to watch out for even badly constructed engines, because Highway + Saboteur can kill your points and you can't even mass Silvers via Masterpiece as defense.

Except the "engine" doesn't exist unless your Black Market pulls provide strong trashing or draw. You can play Saboteur occasionally at best and we all know occasional Saboteurs are just pile control for a non-engine player.

[TheOthin]

Highway isn't Peddler on a board with gainers. Four Highways make Armory and Ironworks able to pick up Provinces.

[dondon151]

But you'll also be playing Black Market so often that it's not unimaginable to pull Watchtower, Jack, Wharf, etc. from the Black Market deck.

[Mic Qsenoch]

You people are talking about this like it's a kingdom with a trasher you can open with. That's not here. You get to play your terminals infrequently, you don't get to line up stuff to make WT or Jack a good draw card. It's not even easy to do 4 Highways + gainer.

I think getting Highways is fine, if nothing else because the money is super weak and denying them from your opponent is good. And gaining Duchies is possible. But the idea that you'll do great things with it here is crazy.

[SCSN]

Mic, want to play this board 6 times for our league match where I'm obliged to both open Armory/BM on 4/3 and gain at least 3 more Armories over the course of the game, whereas you are prohibited from gaining Armory at all? I haven't practiced the board, and in case you consider accepting: neither of us is allowed to start any practice games containing 2 or more of the relevant cards after this post.

[WanderingWinder]

It's possible to combine strategies: http://logs.prod.dominion.makingfun.com//20150210/log.514b5511e4b0b79c883b5e3b.1423606747763.txt

I'm not at all convinced of this being though. I doubt anything is super dominant.

[WanderingWinder]

Mic, want to play this board 6 times for our league match where I'm obliged to both open Armory/BM on 4/3 and gain at least 3 more Armories over the course of the game, whereas you are prohibited from gaining Armory at all? I haven't practiced the board, and in case you consider accepting: neither of us is allowed to start any practice games containing 2 or more of the relevant cards after this post.

I think it would probably be fairer to prohibit him from PLAYING armory, so you can't just run the pile to 1 and sit on it (which is not realistic). I also don't think it's a good idea for the league match, even if we ignore that usually the Black Market deck will be much different than it was here.

[SCSN]

Mic, want to play this board 6 times for our league match where I'm obliged to both open Armory/BM on 4/3 and gain at least 3 more Armories over the course of the game, whereas you are prohibited from gaining Armory at all? I haven't practiced the board, and in case you consider accepting: neither of us is allowed to start any practice games containing 2 or more of the relevant cards after this post.

I think it would probably be fairer to prohibit him from PLAYING armory, so you can't just run the pile to 1 and sit on it (which is not realistic). I also don't think it's a good idea for the league match, even if we ignore that usually the Black Market deck will be much different than it was here.

Yeah, playing sounds better. Different BM decks add a bit of variety, but as usual the actual contents of the BM deck are pretty much irrelevant.

[Mic Qsenoch]

Mic, want to play this board 6 times for our league match where I'm obliged to both open Armory/BM on 4/3 and gain at least 3 more Armories over the course of the game, whereas you are prohibited from gaining Armory at all? I haven't practiced the board, and in case you consider accepting: neither of us is allowed to start any practice games containing 2 or more of the relevant cards after this post.

I have no interest in playing it 6 times for the league. I would be happy to play around on this board some time, just to see what actually works out. I'm not sure why I would be prohibited from playing Armory since I never said it was worthless, though I can skip on the heavy Procession/Armory chain. I think the contents of the Black Market are (potentially) pretty important here since the board itself lacks some key things.

[AdamH]

but as usual the actual contents of the BM deck are pretty much irrelevant.

I don't know what this means, I wish you would explain this in little words so someone like me could understand it.

But in any case, the only trashers in the BM deck this game were Mint, Forge, and Expand. I mean, if Chapel was in there we'd be having a totally different discussion.

[WanderingWinder]

but as usual the actual contents of the BM deck are pretty much irrelevant.

I don't know what this means, I wish you would explain this in little words so someone like me could understand it.

But in any case, the only trashers in the BM deck this game were Mint, Forge, and Expand. I mean, if Chapel was in there we'd be having a totally different discussion.

He means that there's almost always going to be something worth getting at some point, so you should just get it. I find it to be a grossly hyperbolic oversimplification.

[eHalcyon]

but as usual the actual contents of the BM deck are pretty much irrelevant.

I don't know what this means, I wish you would explain this in little words so someone like me could understand it.

But in any case, the only trashers in the BM deck this game were Mint, Forge, and Expand. I mean, if Chapel was in there we'd be having a totally different discussion.

Reading Stef's article about Black Market will probably help.  SCSN comments in that thread as well.

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=11896.0

I don't think this is on the wiki yet.

[dondon151]

He means that there's almost always going to be something worth getting at some point, so you should just get it. I find it to be a grossly hyperbolic oversimplification.

I think AdamH might not understand this because you didn't explain it to him as specified. Here, let me have at it:

He means that there's almost always going to be something worth getting at some point, so you should just get it. I find it to be a grossly hyperbolic oversimplification.

[Davio]

It is an oversimplification.

Some cards are only good early and you might get them too late.
And some cards that are good later on might come too early (and you might not be able to afford them).

Still, there usually is a card in there which offsets the usual balance.

But I usually go for Black Market because it's fun to dig something useful out of it and Rube Goldberg engines are the best!

[HiveMindEmulator]

The reason for that statement is that the main thing to look for in Black Market kingdoms is not the contents of the Black Market deck, but the cycling available in the kingdom. If you can cycle a lot, you can play the Black Market and the things you get out of it enough that it's good no matter what. And if you can't cycle fast enough, even if you get something good out, you won't be able to play it enough to make a big enough difference.

This is mostly true, except that without good cycling, there is some probability that you will get something good soon enough, depending on the contents, and you have to weigh this against the alternatives, so it's possible that you might want the Black Market even when you can't cycle that well.

[SCSN]

but as usual the actual contents of the BM deck are pretty much irrelevant.

I don't know what this means, I wish you would explain this in little words so someone like me could understand it.

What I mean is that in all the kingdoms I've played so far (and in almost all that I can imagine), me gaining (or not gaining) a first Black Market and the content of the BM deck are very close to conditionally independent given the rest of the kingdom. The content has some, but not a lot, of sway in my decision to gain a second one.

To give a simple example: I'm not saying that gaining a T3 Chapel from the BM deck isn't a big deal (it usually is), I'm saying that if opening BM was correct it almost certainly would have been correct had the BM deck not contained Chapel but a random other card in its place. Sure, one could argue that for a decent number of boards (but way less than you probably think) it's possible to hand-pick a 25-card BM-deck that makes it not worth getting, but that would be indulging in this forum's culture most harmful flaw: prefering painstaking veracity over practical usefulness.

To put it even simpler: if the content of the Black Market deck was hidden at the start and only discoverable by playing through it, this would affect only a tiny fraction of my BM related decisions.