Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 [18] 19 20 ... 59  All

Author Topic: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - Mafia Wins!  (Read 128663 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3374
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #425 on: January 22, 2015, 04:54:07 pm »

Okay, this deserves a longer response. I thought that these things were already clear, but it appears they are not.

1) The problem with the color plan is NOT that three scum might be assigned the same night... I agree that this risk is neglectable. The problem is that scum insta-wins N4 if they still have their Strongman.

that's if we use the color plan every night.  What about just using it tonight and then taking stock tomorrow?

I don't think that's good. It gives scum full information about how many Doc shot we used while we're still in the dark.
The watcher also gets some valuable information.  Do you think it is not valuable enough?

I don't think the Watcher gets valuable information. The only way the Watcher gets valuable information is if there are exactly two scum among the three 1-shot docs. Chances of that happening are there, but not high enough to justify the numerous risks.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #426 on: January 22, 2015, 05:08:19 pm »

What's the difference between the Dice Plan and Every Doc For Himself?

I mean, seriously, what's the difference?  Isn't the Dice Plan just a suggested threshhold for how to decide whether to protect each night?

Isn't that not really a plan at all?

We don't get anything out of it.  We don't learn anything.  We don't entrap scum.  We don't catch anyone.  It's as worthless as just letting each player decide on their own.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

XerxesPraelor

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1069
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #427 on: January 22, 2015, 05:34:28 pm »

There still doesn't appear to be a consensus, so I'm going to do the math for myself, and then just go with whichever is best. Here's what I'll take into account:

For color, scum "no-kill"s, otherwise known as killing me without Strongman and roleblocks me if two scum are called. They Strongman kill me if no town is picked or on night 4.

For random, I'll see the chances however scum chooses to shoot. I'm using Faust's numbers for this.

Lynching is moderately better than random - let's say 40% chance of lynching scum.
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #428 on: January 22, 2015, 05:51:39 pm »

There still doesn't appear to be a consensus, so I'm going to do the math for myself, and then just go with whichever is best. Here's what I'll take into account:

For color, scum "no-kill"s, otherwise known as killing me without Strongman and roleblocks me if two scum are called. They Strongman kill me if no town is picked or on night 4.

For random, I'll see the chances however scum chooses to shoot. I'm using Faust's numbers for this.

Lynching is moderately better than random - let's say 40% chance of lynching scum.

To expand:

For color: Watcher always watches the IC, with expected results to compare against.
For random: Roleblocker claims and is watched?  I don't know what the consensus was on what the Watcher does if you go random, as the Watcher has zero utility in the random plan so he's basically just another named VT.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #429 on: January 22, 2015, 05:55:28 pm »

Not exactly.  Watcher does get some information by Watching the IC and comparing the results over multiple nights and against inevitable flips/claims.
Logged

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #430 on: January 22, 2015, 05:57:21 pm »

Not exactly.  Watcher does get some information by Watching the IC and comparing the results over multiple nights and against inevitable flips/claims.

He gets to know who the full doctor is, which is information we don't want him to share.

Also, scum can manipulate that by just targeting the IC every night, so a scum name appears every night as well (if they are no killing anyway, that's what we'll see).  Given we won't have assigned nights for the different Yoshis, there's no reason not to do that.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

EFHW

  • Spy
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 81
  • Shuffle iT Username: EFHW
  • EFHW="ee-foo". Really, how else would you say it?
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #431 on: January 22, 2015, 07:07:43 pm »

Okay, this deserves a longer response. I thought that these things were already clear, but it appears they are not.

1) The problem with the color plan is NOT that three scum might be assigned the same night... I agree that this risk is neglectable. The problem is that scum insta-wins N4 if they still have their Strongman.

that's if we use the color plan every night.  What about just using it tonight and then taking stock tomorrow?

I don't think that's good. It gives scum full information about how many Doc shot we used while we're still in the dark.
The watcher also gets some valuable information.  Do you think it is not valuable enough?

I don't think the Watcher gets valuable information. The only way the Watcher gets valuable information is if there are exactly two scum among the three 1-shot docs. Chances of that happening are there, but not high enough to justify the numerous risks.

so color plan is more ambitious with the accompanying risks, the dice plan is more conservative with less possible reward.  I am ok with doing the dice plan, but not ok with doing nothing.
Logged

Ichimaru Gin

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 635
  • Interesting™
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #432 on: January 22, 2015, 07:11:49 pm »

Yeah doing nothing is like...terrible I think. It's like the randomization plan--except like 100% susceptible to the bystander effect. I'd also tend to think that there would be a subconscious consensus amongst the one-shot-docs such that we'd end up with extreme over or under protection on a given night.

chairs

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 134
  • Why don't you have a seat over there...
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #433 on: January 22, 2015, 07:46:18 pm »

I'm down with giving the color plan a shot.

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3374
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #434 on: January 23, 2015, 03:36:28 am »

What's the difference between the Dice Plan and Every Doc For Himself?

I mean, seriously, what's the difference?  Isn't the Dice Plan just a suggested threshhold for how to decide whether to protect each night?

Isn't that not really a plan at all?

We don't get anything out of it.  We don't learn anything.  We don't entrap scum.  We don't catch anyone.  It's as worthless as just letting each player decide on their own.

Well... yes. What the plan does is give guidelines for protecting. If every Doc decided themselves, I believe people would tend to shoot more often (if they don't do that kind of analysis) and we're out of shots too early, which is why it was necessary to figure out what the best %age for shooting is.

And what's the problem? Any balanced setup doesn't have a breaking strategy, and I don't think this setup is broken.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3374
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #435 on: January 23, 2015, 03:39:22 am »

There still doesn't appear to be a consensus, so I'm going to do the math for myself, and then just go with whichever is best. Here's what I'll take into account:

For color, scum "no-kill"s, otherwise known as killing me without Strongman and roleblocks me if two scum are called. They Strongman kill me if no town is picked or on night 4.

For random, I'll see the chances however scum chooses to shoot. I'm using Faust's numbers for this.

Lynching is moderately better than random - let's say 40% chance of lynching scum.

To expand:

For color: Watcher always watches the IC, with expected results to compare against.
For random: Roleblocker claims and is watched?  I don't know what the consensus was on what the Watcher does if you go random, as the Watcher has zero utility in the random plan so he's basically just another named VT.

I'm asking you again, what would you do if the Watcher doesn't have the expected results? Out all our PRs?
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #436 on: January 23, 2015, 04:03:37 am »

What does the watcher do then?  Nothing?
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3374
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #437 on: January 23, 2015, 04:15:15 am »

What does the watcher do then?  Nothing?

The Watcher watches the IC. If no 1-shot Doc targets the IC, we've found scum. If scum always targets the IC, we've found scum the latest N4 if scum always tries to kill the IC. The Roleblocker should probably target the IC the first two times. If we do a stupid lynch, hopefully the Watcher speaks out against it.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

ashersky

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2343
  • 2013/2014/2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #438 on: January 23, 2015, 07:07:52 am »

What does the watcher do then?  Nothing?

The Watcher watches the IC. If no 1-shot Doc targets the IC, we've found scum. If scum always targets the IC, we've found scum the latest N4 if scum always tries to kill the IC. The Roleblocker should probably target the IC the first two times. If we do a stupid lynch, hopefully the Watcher speaks out against it.

How have we caught scum?  He still sees doc at least.  Will we lynch him?  I honestly don't understand this line of thought.
Logged
f.ds Mafia Board Moderator

2013, 2014, 2015 Mafia Mod of the Year
2015 f.ds Representative, World Forum Mafia Championships
2013, 2014 Mafia Player of the Year (Tie)

11x MVP: M30, M83, ZM16, M25, M38, M61, M76, RMM5, RMM41, RMM46, M51

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3374
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #439 on: January 23, 2015, 07:16:25 am »

What does the watcher do then?  Nothing?

The Watcher watches the IC. If no 1-shot Doc targets the IC, we've found scum. If scum always targets the IC, we've found scum the latest N4 if scum always tries to kill the IC. The Roleblocker should probably target the IC the first two times. If we do a stupid lynch, hopefully the Watcher speaks out against it.

How have we caught scum?  He still sees doc at least.  Will we lynch him?  I honestly don't understand this line of thought.

Well, you have a point... I didn't consider that the same scum might target the IC every night. Not sure how likely that is.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3374
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #440 on: January 23, 2015, 07:18:44 am »

Lynching is moderately better than random - let's say 40% chance of lynching scum.

Not sure I agree. Finding any scum is probably better than random, but good scum players will defend their Strongman.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #441 on: January 23, 2015, 10:15:41 am »

What does the watcher do then?  Nothing?

The Watcher watches the IC. If no 1-shot Doc targets the IC, we've found scum. If scum always targets the IC, we've found scum the latest N4 if scum always tries to kill the IC. The Roleblocker should probably target the IC the first two times. If we do a stupid lynch, hopefully the Watcher speaks out against it.

Huh?  This the same problem you brought up in Ash's plan.  The Watcher will see a set of {A,B,C,..} that have targeted IC more than once, and he knows that {Doctor, Roleblocker, Scum} must be a subset of this set.  This was a problem for you before; why isn't it now?
Logged

Witherweaver

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 6476
  • Shuffle iT Username: Witherweaver
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #442 on: January 23, 2015, 10:16:03 am »

I think everyone is neglecting how similar these plans are.
Logged

faust

  • Board Moderator
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3374
  • Shuffle iT Username: faust
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #443 on: January 23, 2015, 12:17:37 pm »

What does the watcher do then?  Nothing?

The Watcher watches the IC. If no 1-shot Doc targets the IC, we've found scum. If scum always targets the IC, we've found scum the latest N4 if scum always tries to kill the IC. The Roleblocker should probably target the IC the first two times. If we do a stupid lynch, hopefully the Watcher speaks out against it.

Huh?  This the same problem you brought up in Ash's plan.  The Watcher will see a set of {A,B,C,..} that have targeted IC more than once, and he knows that {Doctor, Roleblocker, Scum} must be a subset of this set.  This was a problem for you before; why isn't it now?

I find it a bit more acceptable here because I think it's better for scum to not kill if we follow the color plan.
Logged
You say the ocean's rising, like I give a shit
You say the whole world's ending, honey it already did

scott_pilgrim

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1102
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #444 on: January 23, 2015, 02:43:58 pm »

Vote Count 1.4:

Witherweaver (2): faust, ADK
ashersky (2): XerxesPraelor, ashersky
Awaclus (1): silverspawn
sudgy (1): chairs
silverspawn (1): Witherweaver

Not Voting (6): Hydrad, EFHW, Ichimaru Gin, Awaclus, sudgy, pacovf

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Day 1 will end at 8:00 p.m. on January 29, 2015.
Logged

pacovf

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3499
  • Multiediting poster
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #445 on: January 23, 2015, 04:14:38 pm »

Back from eating Wurstsalat with Bibiliskäs and Brägele, and realizing to my horror that Faust's countrymen think "Water" means "Sparkling Water" *shudders*

Anyway, the setup discussion is taking longer than it should. I'll resume my understanding of both plans:

THE PLANS:

Colour plan:
-Doctor, Watcher and Roleblocker all target Baby Mario (XP).
-XP chooses three colours per day (plus one on hold) that will target him at night.
-If Watcher sees something funky happening at night, we full or partial claim according to his/her good judgement.
-We hope to lynch Baby Bowser (scum strongman) before it is too late (N4 or N3).

Dice plan:
-Doctor, Watcher and Roleblocker all target Baby Mario (XP).
-All 1-shot Doctors determine with a dice roll whether they protect XP or not, according to a probability determined beforehand (20-25% today).
-Watcher decides what to do based on scum night actions.

THE CONSEQUENCES:

Colour plan:
Advantages:
-Has very good chances to reach D3, and reasonably good chances to reach D4.
-Forces scum to take a suboptimal shot at XP, forego their roleblock, or reveal one scum member if two scum are on the same colour team for the night.
Disadvantages:
-All but guarantees that town loses if we reach N3 or N4 (by N3, three lynches have happened; if those are from uncalled colours, we might be out of defenses by N3).
-Neuters the Watcher if scum decides to hide (which they should).
-Has an early opening for scum if two scum are in the same colour team on N2 or N3.
-Encourages scum to follow a degenerate game plan, i.e., no nightkills.

Dice plan:
Advantages:
-Does not provide a guaranteed win for scum at any point of the game.
-Does not tell scum when is the optimal night to shoot at XP.
-Does not encourage scum to hide, which means the Watcher gets useful results (IC-ifies lots of people).
Disadvantages:
-Potentially provides openings for scum each night.
-If scum decides to hide anyway, the Watcher will have close to no investigative power.

CONCLUSION:

If we think we have good chances to lynch Baby Bowser by N3 without any PoE from the Watcher or the nightkills, the colour plan is better. Otherwise, the dice plan has more staying power.


I am not going to spend much more time defending the dice plan. Personally, I don't believe we can reasonably expect to catch BB by N3, especially considering that his/her scum partners can basically sacrifice themselves to save BB, so I prefer the dice plan by a wide margin. I think the colour plan can be exploited by scum so easily as to make all scum hunting eventually irrelevant, but I will still follow it and play the game if that is what the majority decides.



I think it is time we vote which plan we execute, since we won't ever reach a perfect consensus. I would be nice if people took some time to read this wall of text, if anything to show appreciation for the time it took for me to write it down, and then either vote: colour, vote: dice, or vote: blank (if no strong preference), or some variation thereof. For those of you who have already expressed your preference, please do it again so that it is easier to collect opinions. Thanks.

Vote: dice plan
Logged
pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.

chairs

  • Young Witch
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 134
  • Why don't you have a seat over there...
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #446 on: January 23, 2015, 04:23:38 pm »

vote: dice plan.

If scum hide in the dice plan, it can only be the roleblocker faking 1-shot doc (or they forgo a NK to "hide" the strongman/goon).  Optimally, at some point the watcher claims everyone in the dice plan and we have all sorts of virtual ICs to POE; conversely, it doesn't encourage scum to "hide" because they're forgoing a NK that could hit a doctor, the watcher, or the roleblocker.

I think this is probably the best way for us to use Night actions productively.

Ichimaru Gin

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 635
  • Interesting™
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #447 on: January 23, 2015, 04:30:39 pm »

vote: dice plan.

pacovf's points are solid. Furthermore, scum will have WIFOM whether or not to use any of their shots--likely wasting them since odds are at least 1-2 1-shot docs should be protecting the IC each night--in addition to the full Doc. Though I'm wondering if the roll probabilities should be adjusted for each day. As the game goes on and more and more docs have likely used their shots, we should probably increase the percentages. I guess we can probably work out the exact details later--after we hopefully come to a decision as to which plan we're going to use. Arguing over the details of one plan is better than arguing between plans and the specifics of each one.

We have tried this voting thing before today, so hopefully everyone will actually vote for a plan this time instead of stonewalling each other.

A Drowned Kernel

  • 2015 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1067
  • They/Them
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #448 on: January 23, 2015, 05:16:54 pm »

vote: blank

I'm honestly at the point where I don't have a strong preference, and think we need to start worrying about a lynch.
Logged
The perfect engine
But it will never go off
Three piles are empty

sudgy

  • Cartographer
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3431
  • Shuffle iT Username: sudgy
  • It's pronounced "SOO-jee"
    • View Profile
Re: RMM21: Yoshi's Island Mafia - (Day 1)
« Reply #449 on: January 23, 2015, 05:23:29 pm »

Vote: blank
Logged
If you're wondering what my avatar is, watch this.

Check out my logic puzzle blog!

   Quote from: sudgy on June 31, 2011, 11:47:46 pm
Pages: 1 ... 16 17 [18] 19 20 ... 59  All
 

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 20 queries.