When did I disagree that Moneylender can be opened more reliably?
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"Transmute, Stonemason... these cards are not strong, early Copper trashers. Why not compare to the ones you've already mentioned? Chapel? Steward? If I look to these actual competitive cards, Counterfeit is one of the weaker Copper trashers for Venture because it competes with Venture at $5. The conflict between Moneylender and a terminal X matters far less than the conflict between the two treasures at $5."
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The bigger issue, by far, is that Moneylender can be an opening buy all the time while Counterfeit is most often T3/T4 and that may require a sliver purchase.
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"Again [previous deferral was towards a negative assessment], I defer to stronger players who have said as much."
You have consistently held that the major reason Moneylender, a pretty much objectively weaker copper trasher, works better/more often is that it doesn't compete for Venture buys. I have held, consistently, that the biggest issue is that I can open Moneylender always and Counterfeit has to wait until T3/T4 most games.
If Smithy is available, Venture is not my top priority. I'd probably get a second Smithy and maybe a second Counterfeit before any Ventures, with Ventures after that being a consolation prize at $5 with nothing better to get.
For a game with Colonies out? Because my priorities would be Counterfeit -> Smithy -> Plat. With Counterfeit often able to double play Silvers, I can pretty quickly expect to nab Venture every hand and Plat most Smithy hands. A second Smithy doesn't add much here.
But really, with Black Market, there is probably an engine to play.
Why do you keep doing this? We all know that a typical Bm deck has enough villages/draw/payload to build at least a decent engine; I wanted the Baker coin so I could ask you a question about your preferences without getting bogged down in the question of how valuable the trashing is for opening vs second shuffle. Nobody here is an idiot and doesn't know how to play a Bm board.
So because I can't seem to get you to straightforwardly engage with the questions: the black market consists of Transmute, Gardens, Rats, Farmland, Scout, Great Hall, Sab, Silk Road, Possession, Vineyard, Tunnel, Fool's Gold, Peddler, Treasure Map, Talisman, Thief, Stash, Chancellor, Moat, Secret Chamber, Coppersmith, Pearl Diver, Duchess, Duke, and Baker
I refer you once again to your first post in this thread. That post was not about synergies between Venture and Counterfeit, big or small. What you wrote there is not what you have been arguing since. So yeah, most of those things weren't special synergies, they were just things that are true about each card individually.
"There is a small bit of additional synergy:"
Remind me again about how this is not about synergies big or small? Sure I had assumed that after delineating in the first line item that it would be clear we were talking about a type of deck where Venture is assumed to be good; hence stuff like A synergizes with B, B synergizes with C, therefor A synergizes with C would be obvious.
Now sure, I didn't go into great length about minor points, but the fact of the matter is that when Venture is strong, Counterfeit is among the strongest copper trashers - it gets played disproportionately often and it gives you flexibility - both what else can be thrown into the Venture deck (e.g. terminal draw) and what you can do at end-game (it more often than most other comparable options will give you a +buy).
Since then you've have decided that because these things happen with all treasures, they aren't "special synergies"; even though the Venture case is one where you have precisely the definition of synergy (total more than the sum of its parts). That is what I don't understand; I have always been talking about how if a Venture deck is a given, then this stuff pushes you to pick counterfeit over other options.
This will show up in 1/10,000 games, so you can ignore the specific card interactions and have really, really minimal impact on your play. Of course, you can completely ignore Stash/Chancellor (or Stash/Scavenger), Market Square/Hermit, Pstone/Herbalist, and Tactician/Bm (or Outpost sometimes) ... and it would effect <1% of your games too. The thing I do think is important is being able to approach a board where you have choices between cards that do close to the same thing. When is Treasury going to be stronger than Baker & vice versa? When is Rabble going to be stronger than Journeyman and vice versa? This going to depend a lot on stuff like card type (e.g. Rabble is a lot worse when the opponent is using Horse Traders a decent bit), how frequently will you get benefit from the secondary effects on the card (e.g. when will Rabble top deck green vs when will Journeyman skip dross), and which works best with other enablers for whatever your real payload is? Walking through these sorts of interactions does make you a better player; saying "meh all the copper trashers are the same" does not. I know you do this sort of thing when you read a real kingdom, I don't know why you can't get over your inability to see that Venture/Counterfeit is a rare specific instance of a general procedure.
You said that it is "highly overrated" regarding deference to stronger players. So what's that supposed to mean? I took it to mean that you wouldn't trust stronger players regarding these small synergies. This is in contradiction to the point that the small synergies are how top players distinguish themselves. If that is not what you meant, then my point (of deferring to those stronger players) stands.
When I've had these arguments about specific cards in the past, I've just played people and just about always the card interactions play out as logic dictates. But they are generally stronger Dominion players than me. How can they be stronger, but objectively wrong about the strength of card interactions they rarely see?
Largely because below a certain threshold it rarely matters to them. Their tacit knowledge is enough to carry them through unequal play and their tacit knowledge is often enough to pick out the small synergies without explicitly knowing they are doing it. Superb tactical play, which most of the regulars on this board manage routinely, does wonders even when you play a suboptimal strategy. As the gap in player skill increases, the relative strength of the cards played has less and less predictive power.
And yeah, these small synergies that we've since discussed are not special. They are small and make very little difference in actual competitive play. As other players have said and you yourself have admitted, Venture-Counterfeit is not actually a thing.
I still have no idea what makes something "special", you last attempt was pretty much useless. Are these "small synergies"? Yes. Does this example matter in competitive play, not really, but mostly because Venture is just that weak (you need a really constrained board to make a go of it). Does the ability to pick out small synergies when deciding between villages or between draw? Yes.
You said that it is "highly overrated" regarding deference to stronger players. So what's that supposed to mean? I took it to mean that you wouldn't trust stronger players regarding these small synergies. This is in contradiction to the point that the small synergies are how top players distinguish themselves. If that is not what you meant, then my point (of deferring to those stronger players) stands.
I don't trust them to
explicitly know them. This is born out by past experiences. A lot of good players don't see small synergies or undervalue them, yet play them in practice. When they specifically talk about the actual value of things that show up in <1% of games, they are quite often wrong explicitly. Basically, people play better than they talk.
1. There are still new cards. Guilds has only been available for one of Qvist's lists so far, so it hasn't fully shaken out. Those new cards also affect how older cards rank.
And this would be a demonstration of fallacious player thinking. The vast majority of boards for any random old card will not contain a new card that significantly changes its strength (e.g. adding Masterpiece a Goons board doesn't do a lot to Goons' ranking). Rank ordering for the old cards should be largely unchanged by the mere addition of 13 cards. Players are often much better with their tacit knowledge (the skill they have at playing they cannot articulate) than with their explicit knowledge.
2. Qvist's lists also include weaker players and players who didn't submit their rankings before.
a. People on this board are very, very rarely weak players. The worst person who reads the board is likely on the stronger side of the dominion population.
b. We are talking some serious movement. Iw went up 17 places last year. Even if every single new ranker moved Iw up, that doesn't explain everything here.
3. Even top players continue to improve their game. It is not a static thing.
Yeah, but like, of virtually every other strategy game ever, the incremental improvements tend to be ever smaller and smaller. We are not yet seeing that with the cards.
The rankings between top players may differ because they personally value different
things when ranking the cards, like how often a card is good vs. how amazing a card is when it is good. And what they value more for ranking can change over time.
Indeed, which is why when a top player says "meh this doesn't matter", I'm not inclined to write the matter off. I've seen people change their tunes too often. You need to be able to say why this doesn't matter. Now sure in this particular case, Venture is weak enough that you really won't play this much ever, but the change in deck strength of going this instead of say Junk dealer/Venture is going to be of a magnitude that similar improvements with other cards on other boards would have significant impact. Again this is a particular case of a general set.
We're not looking at statistics from top players here, just opinions. Counterfeit-Venture is not a thing, and the small synergies you've been pushing just don't matter in real game situations.
We are looking at the recall and anticipation of top players, which shockingly tend to reflect their statistical experience.
So yes, I don't think this is one of those synergies that determines boards. Counterfeit is very, very rarely going to be a reason to go Venture. Venture will push you to go Counterfeit on those rare boards where Venture is good and you have other options for copper trashing.