Dominion Strategy Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  All

Author Topic: Schedule and Results, Part II  (Read 32849 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

WanderingWinder

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5275
  • ...doesn't really matter to me
  • Respect: +4368
    • View Profile
    • WanderingWinder YouTube Page
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #75 on: January 08, 2012, 10:55:24 pm »
0

They're here: http://www.livestream.com/wanderingwinder
When and if they'll get up on the dominionstrategy youtube will be up to theory. But it's not quite 4 AM where he is yet, so I wouldn't expect anything.

Interestingly, I think I actually subtly outplayed you in most games (though hey, luck definitely didn't shine against me, not gonna deny that) , so we'll have to compare commentaries. I certainly feel it would have been dreadfully unlucky for me to go down 4-0 here. Of the first four games, I'd expect to win, oh, 2.5 or so if we played them with relatively the same strategies as we used, over and over again.

RisingJaguar

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 527
  • Respect: +184
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #76 on: January 08, 2012, 11:36:49 pm »
0

Just looking at the games quickly, the first game for Fabian, it really hurt him that he got <$5 three times in turn 3-7 (to WW's 1).  I think he made the best of it, as silver or 3rd monument look like bad ideas, but that early shuffle luck really got to his economy.  No $8 and $7 once (i think) shows it.  I can understand why Fabian is a teensy bit upset at this game... same strategy (from what I see) and first turn and loss.

Wish I could comment on the other matches, but Govenor and Bureaucrat analysis are out of my league.  I will say that are very subtle difference in plans that made the differences (which is cool to see).  Look forward to your full commentary and thoughts.
Logged

Fabian

  • 2012 Swedish Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 666
  • Respect: +541
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #77 on: January 08, 2012, 11:50:53 pm »
+1

Certainly interesting to watch someone else comment on your game. Well, I couldn't bare watching the last game, but the others were cool.

In the first game, I think we both play well overall, and obviously our strategies are pretty much identical (though I like 2 Monument). It seems to me like I'm winning if I get a Province here, but most of that would be because of first player advantage imo. Oh well, I don't hit $8 while you do.

In the second game, it's entirely possible your strategy is much stronger than mine. However, when we reach the point where you need both Provinces to win and you say I have no economy left, I hit $7 three times afterwards, which is what prompts my "sigh" afterwards. Maybe this is unlucky, maybe it's justice ;)

In the third game, when I go for my megaturn and need both Provinces, I hit Governor+Gold+$7, and instead have to Remodel Silver into Duchy + buy Fairgrounds, but after that it's obviously very tough to win. Again, whether or not this is unlucky or justice, it's pretty close either way.

I didn't mean for this to turn into a huge whine-fest, and I certainly didn't mean I deserved to win every game. All I meant was that it was very close that it actually happened, in every game. I certainly felt I was a huge favorite to win game 2 after I bought the last Duchy, and I felt pretty unlucky that none of those $7s was an $8. If my strategy was a lot worse than yours to begin with though, it's entirely possible I got lucky to be in that position in the first place. On an unrelated note, I smiled a bit during your commentary of that game, when you go "he's probably buying Great Hall here" when we reached the point where GH's were irrelevant :)

You're definitely a deserving winner, good luck in the semis and the final.

RisingJaguar, I got to $7 twice in game 1, turns 12 and 18.
Logged

timchen

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 704
  • Shuffle iT Username: allfail
  • Respect: +233
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #78 on: January 09, 2012, 12:59:38 am »
+1

My 2 cents after watching the commentary:

Game #1: Fabian is being unlucky here. The second monument is definitely the way to go. Hitting the third $4, I think it's a close call between a silver and a garden, while the garden is probably the better choice. If WW didn't get 2 Provinces the result will be the opposite.

Game #2: I think WW overated the difference between a bureaucrat and a SM opening (because BM is actually quite swingy), although I agree with him that his strategy will be better in average. The first Province I would have taken a Gold, but seems to make no difference in this game (ie, a shuffle later he drew a hand with a province in hand and bought a gold.) I think not breaking the PPR there is actually a mistake. As one can see, taking a duchy there (if I recall correctly) denied himself the last duchy when he had the money for it, and made him in quite a bad position having to get the last two Provinces anyway. At that point given the VP counts, I think it should be obvious that breaking the PPR sooner is better than later. A treasure poor deck still has some chance to just produce a province...

Game #3: WW played very well on this one. I wouldn't have thought twice to take the Governor route, especially not a merchant ship strategy. He did get good draws too though.

Game #4: I prefer WW's second remodel to be a caravan; you can remodel it to a GM later if you want anyway. On the other hand, I think drawing the two Remodel separately would have been quite useless at that point. Maybe steal a province from FG->gold->Province? dunno if that will work. Fabian won by first player advantage though.

Game #5: First time I see this strategy in work! Reading it just isn't enough; you have to play it yourself to see it. I am really amazed from these videos how familiar with the game WW is; it will take much longer for me to figure out on each board which strategy should I play. And I still make lots of stupid mistakes, usually realizing immediately around turn 3... Anyway, I think the interesting to discuss here is which version you should go for in this strategy. The colony version is exactly one turn slower with 1 more points to start with (should trash silver to get to a plat then trash a gold vs. trash a gold to get a province; I guess WW was just feeling too comfortable there :P) Then the Colony strategy will yield 1 more point per turn. Against each other the colony strategy seems slightly better.

Edit: I think I was wrong, indeed seeing it is not the same as playing it. :P
So the Colony version is actually 2 turns slower; starting from BGSSC, the province strategy can get to the Province right away, but the Colony strategy has to trash the silver to get another gold, then copper to get a Platinum. In the process it accumulates 2 more points. A two turn deficit means 10 more points for the Province player though; this renders the Province strategy strictly superior.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2012, 01:37:20 am by timchen »
Logged

theory

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3594
  • Respect: +6035
    • View Profile
    • Dominion Strategy
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #79 on: January 09, 2012, 02:24:43 am »
0

They're here: http://www.livestream.com/wanderingwinder
When and if they'll get up on the dominionstrategy youtube will be up to theory. But it's not quite 4 AM where he is yet, so I wouldn't expect anything.
Email or DropBox them to me and I'll upload them when I get back from work.

Alternatively, I've also PMed you a direct email link that you should be able to use to upload videos to the DS account.  Send an email to that address and any attached videos will be uploaded to the DominionStrategy channel.

It looks like a great series and a remarkably high level of play on both sides.  Hopefully the semifinals demonstrate the same.
Logged

Geronimoo

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1047
  • Respect: +843
    • View Profile
    • Geronimoo's Dominion Simulator
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #80 on: January 09, 2012, 03:49:57 am »
+1

Very nice matches there WW. And good videos! But I hate how you're teaching everyone the power of Big Money :)
Logged

theory

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3594
  • Respect: +6035
    • View Profile
    • Dominion Strategy
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #81 on: January 09, 2012, 08:54:41 am »
0

Also, statistically, Fabian and manzi were "supposed" to have won in order to maintain the relative representation ratios of America/Europe/Asia, which up until now had behaved precisely as expected.

As it is, Turambar and manzi are going to fight it out for whether Europe or Asia gets a spot in the American Dominion Cup final four.
Logged

RisingJaguar

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 527
  • Respect: +184
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #82 on: January 09, 2012, 10:57:46 am »
0

RisingJaguar, I got to $7 twice in game 1, turns 12 and 18.

Oops, but my point still seems valid, the early $4s did you in.  Not much you could've done I think sadly. 

I also forgot to mention, these were some really great games played on both sides!
Logged

WanderingWinder

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5275
  • ...doesn't really matter to me
  • Respect: +4368
    • View Profile
    • WanderingWinder YouTube Page
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #83 on: January 09, 2012, 11:19:35 am »
0

A couple quick comments before I do full analyses:
Game 1: Yes, luck absolutely determined this game. I think I played really well, but... Fabian didn't get the chance; I would have probably played very nearly identically to him. On the other hand, I don't think the 2-0 provinces made as much difference as you guys are implying, but... that will be in the later commentary.
Game 2: OK, here's the big one. Bureaucrat should really stomp spice merchant. As for getting $7 3 times after turn 18 - I don't think that's a sign you got unlucky, I think it's a sign you got lucky! Let's look at your deck at that point:
Fabian: 32 points : 3 Province, 1 Gold, 3 Duchy, 2 Caravan, 1 Spice Merchant, 1 Great Hall, 4 Silver, 4 Estate, 3 Copper
So to get $8, you need either all 4 silvers, the gold and 3 silvers, the gold, 2 silvers and a copper, a gold a silver, and all 3 coppers, or 3/4 silvers and 2/3 coppers. All in all, a deck of that size... it's unlikely. On top of which, the first 2 $7s you used to buy the last 2 duchies. If either of those weren't duchies, I get the last duchy and only need 1 of the provinces anyway...
Game 4: Yes, second remodel is better as something else. I got rather unlucky to get remodel-copper-copper-estate-estate, which might have just doomed me there, but Fabian also outplayed me.
Game 5: Well, game 1 I think I had a clearly better strategy, but still wouldn't expect to win like all the time - he's got chances. Here though, was the real clear outplay, which I don't feel like I can take credit for so much 'cause I just copied the strategy I'd read on these forums! Anyway, with the strategies, I should win roughly 100% of the time, but even if he also goes for 'the golden deck', I'm going to win like, 70 % of the time or something with 1st-turn. And I was pretty sure that province is the way to go there over colony in terms of efficiency, like in a mirror match, BUT, if he's to have any chance of beating me there, it's better to go for the colonies for me, while not in the mirror. I think.

DStu

  • Margrave
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2627
  • Respect: +1488
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #84 on: January 09, 2012, 11:29:08 am »
0

but even if he also goes for 'the golden deck', I'm going to win like, 70 % of the time or something with 1st-turn.

The Golden Deck has 60:40 first-player advantage in the simulator. (The Province-version, but as everything is determined by the first turns Colonies should be the same)

@Province/Colony: Assume it's a real mirror, also concerning the draws, it takes two more turns to go for Colonies. So when you get 8 Provinces for 41 Points, second player gets 5 Colonies for 34 points. And probably trashes an additional Copper and Silver for 3 points. Seems like Provinces is the right move in a mirror.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2012, 11:35:55 am by DStu »
Logged

DG

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4071
  • Respect: +2611
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #85 on: January 09, 2012, 11:31:54 am »
+2

Thanks to WW and Fabian for some excellent games, possibly the best round of the tournament so far. I've had a little play with the simulator and an early hoard could be worth it in game #1 (this set seems to simulate well but the causes might be buried deep in the vp purchasing). In game #2 the bureaucrat simulates very strongly against the spice trader and I suspect this mirrors an old weakness of moneylenders against bureaucrats. The attack hits estates more often and the trashed copper isn't as likely to be replaced with good treasures (gold) since hands are poorer. In fact the simulator likes taking an explorer to replenish treasure in the spice merchant/caravan deck. In game #5 I'm guessing that you pick bishop/colony or bishop/province based on the state of play.

My favourite of the set though was game#3 where WW decided to take advantage of the governor gifts and pushed his deck full throttle with provinces on turns 5 and 7. Matching governors as second player always seems a bad idea since the decks accelerate so fast and frequently make first turn advantage decisive in a mirrored game. Perhaps if someone writes an article on the governor this game can be a good example, taken from a high quality competitive match with a quiet looking kingdom.
Logged

WanderingWinder

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5275
  • ...doesn't really matter to me
  • Respect: +4368
    • View Profile
    • WanderingWinder YouTube Page
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #86 on: January 09, 2012, 01:16:06 pm »
+2

Game 1: http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120108-185135-fd42d716.html
Okay, very clearly it's an IGG rush. Nothing to get around them with, no colonies, etc. Monument is one of the best supplementary cards for the rush. Gardens is probably THE best. Now I definitely got lucky here, BUT let's go through this reshuffle by reshuffle. Same obvious opening. First reshuffle, I get IGG and silver. Fabian gets IGG and monument. We each get a VP chip from monument. Advantage in luck, Fabian. Next reshuffle, I get 3 IGGs, he gets 1 and 2 gardens. I play my monument, he plays both of his. Also note that the curse from my last IGG doesn't hit him until the following reshuffle because of first turn. Advantage, me, but not by all that much. Getting those gardens is really important, because that will usually be what the game is won on eventually in these mirrors. Next reshuffle: he gets 2 IGGs, a gardens, and a silver, and plays both monuments; I get 2 silvers, 2 provinces, and play my monument. Advantage, me, clearly. BUT, if my money was a little more spread out, it wouldn't have been as bad for me as you might think. I would have picked up another IGG, further snowballing him under curses, and either another IGG or gardens, really helping me and denying him as things unfolded. Ok, next reshuffle: He gets IGG, Gardens, Silver, and estate, plays 2 monuments. I get 3 gardens an estate, and a copper, play one monument. I actually get behind in the IGGs because I have to catch up on gardens, which means he's getting the long-term advantage, the price of my earlier provinces. I'm really not sure about him grabbing estate over the last gardens on turn 15. Yes, I can then win the game if I get to $5, but that's probably going to be true anyway. Having a 5-3 gardens split at the end would give him some niceness. OTOH, it does accelerate the end of the game, which is something he doesn't want to do. Last reshuffle he gets estate, duchy, and a monument play, I get the last IGG and gardens.
So ok, yes I got lucky, and yes I would have played very similarly to him (would have preferred gardens to IGGs a little earlier - I'm looking at turn 12), yes if he got a late province he would have won (though by then neither of our decks was in much position to get a province). But if one of my earlier provinces were evened out, I don't think it would have hurt that much, and he got a pretty huge advantage getting that monument over silver on the first reshuffle. In contrast, my advantage were getting at least one province, and getting lucky on getting IGGs second reshuffle. Keep in mind that first player advantage should be big here, with curses hitting reshuffles and in racing piles.

WanderingWinder

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5275
  • ...doesn't really matter to me
  • Respect: +4368
    • View Profile
    • WanderingWinder YouTube Page
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #87 on: January 09, 2012, 01:42:53 pm »
+1

Game 2: http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120108-185804-6c7f217e.html
You know, I started my commentary here saying why spice merchant is dreadful in big money, and this is certainly not an engine board, then he goes for it. Spice merchant doesn't help your buying power. Sims actually show that buying a spice merchant and going money is WORSE than just going money. Now obviously you're going to usually have some action to play that reverses that, but it's very very rarely great. Furthermore, the trashing is really bad against bureaucrat, because a relatively much higher percentage of your cards are green. So it's just a really really dreadful move. It also doesn't work well with caravan, because the smaller your deck is, the more your caravans are going to miss those reshuffles. So it's just a terrible terrible terrible card here. Now, caravan itself would have actually been great for my deck, but I didn't hit $4 after turn 2 until very late, where I either needed the VP of great hall, or it was preferable to have mining village (more on that later). Now I got a little lucky to hit turn 4 gold, unlucky to hit 8 on turn 6 (would be better to spread out), more unlucky to miss out on bureaucrat 2nd reshuffle. A little lucky in hitting a green card every time with bureaucrat, though again his strategy played into that a bit. Now we get into the interesting bit. Turn 17 I follow PPR. Now, normally by this point, you do break PPR, because neither of us is hitting $8 all that consistently already. BUT, I knew that the longer the game went (and duchy dancing makes it go a lot longer), the more pronounced my advantage in deck quality would be, and the less likely a flukey province from him was going to kill me. I figured we'd probably split the last two duchies, and then I only needed one of the last two provinces to win, which was pretty likely. Unfortunately for me, he was able to get both duchies. Now, this did make his deck even more bogged down, which let me get more of a chance at the provinces. And as I pointed out in an earlier post, his deck has so little money in it at that point, he's not going to have high probabilities of stringing it all together for a province. Now, after the last duchy was out, Fabian makes a really good point, which I realized right after I said he'd probably go for Great Halls on the video, that the great halls and estates are virtually irrelevant. Assuming the game isn't going to 3-pile, which would take 3 more great halls and 7 estates, I would need four 1-point VP cards to make a change, as well as getting one of the provinces, and he would need 8. If I go for it, he can either chase me down with them and go for that three pile potentially, or just build his deck and grab one of the provinces, then scrounge enough of the remaining provinces to secure a win. If he goes for it, well, he's not really going to have a good chance to get 8 before I get both provinces, and eventually I can join in and grab one or two late to put it totally out of reach for him. So we both knew that the little green cards were totally irrelevant, which isn't THAT hard to see, but a subtle little thing, and something where we can crush the simulators, at least as they're currently being programmed, and good play from both of us to build back up our decks to strike at provinces, me needing both, him needing one.
Turn 20 is also key. We both get 4, with which he gets caravan, I get mining village. Clear, clear mistake from him. MV gives you a potential free $2 the turn you play it, plus you can wait until the turn you need it to use it. Caravan doesn't give its bonus until one turn later (potentially big here) and more importantly, the extra card is massively less likely to get him to province than the $2 is. And we can see that the last turn, I used the mining village to get me across the line.

WanderingWinder

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5275
  • ...doesn't really matter to me
  • Respect: +4368
    • View Profile
    • WanderingWinder YouTube Page
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #88 on: January 09, 2012, 02:00:50 pm »
+1

Game 3: http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120108-190412-7328fea6.html
Okay, I knew governor was the 'obvious' strategy here, but... well it does have its drawbacks. First off, governor mirrors massively advantage first turn, because 1st player both gets first chance to go mega-turn as well as has more support in going mega in some ways. But moreover, governor strategies without some help - either from opponent's governors (council room, etc.) or from trashing, need several fast governors to get that mega-turn arranged. They need enough governors to get a big enough hand with enough left over to gold->province a couple times, enough gold to do that, and preferably enough treasure to still buy a province. Basically, that's at least 4, probably 5 governors, and with no help, it takes like 14ish turns or something, I think, and meanwhile you're helping your opponent. (note that the steward helps here, so this doesn't ALL apply, but steward isn't the BEST helper, especially with the 5/2s, and he only uses it to trash once! which has got to be a mistake for the deck he wants, I think, though there's so much he wants to do, it's not easy to make the decisions, because you can't do it all). Furthermore, the presence of bank and fairgrounds make defensive trashing for points a pretty strong possibility. Finally, merchant ship is pretty underrated, a great opener, and actually a pretty darn good terminal, as a non-card-drawing duration, to get multiples of quickly.
Okay, I province on turn 5 and 7. Normally, this is way way way too fast (and I would have preferred like one of them to be a bank and then slip that money to an adjacent turn, but I *think* with what I had, this was right; maybe bank on the first woulda been better though...), even with the nice Merchant ship start. But I knew he was going to be pumping me with silver. Actually, this might have been a situation for him to consider using the +cards option more, come to think of it. Anyway, I'm pretty fast with the double merchant ship, all his silvers, and grabbing enough stuff with trashing options from him to be able to get 4 point fairgrounds. And then he can't quite double province himself to a win on turn 13, though that's awfully early to expect to be able to, and he knows he can't break PPR there with me having such strong chances at getting a province with the benefits he's been pumping me. And I'm of course able to get the penultimate province anyway, and thankfully hold on, though with his 1st turn, it was still decently close.

WanderingWinder

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5275
  • ...doesn't really matter to me
  • Respect: +4368
    • View Profile
    • WanderingWinder YouTube Page
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #89 on: January 09, 2012, 02:15:18 pm »
+1

Game 4: http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120108-190943-0a55a884.html
Remodel/Fool's Gold is strong. It also gives pretty good 1st turn advantage. Anyway, its wicked strength leads to very fast games, and you gotta play the mirror - if you don't contest those fool's gold, you're dead meat, plus there isn't anything else all that great here. Big thing is turn 4, where with copper-copper-estate-estate-Remodel, I have to remodel estate into fool's gold and buy a fool's gold to stop from falling so far behind. Then bad luck for me again turn 5, I hit copper-copper-FG-FG-Estate and have buy out the last FG to stop from falling behind. Basically I think I'm already lost there, though Fabian outplays me anyway. I was confused by Remodel Estate->Bishop and thought it was bad at the time BUT, now that I think about it, it must be right. Yeah, the trashing potentially helps me a lot, but practically, I need the money to buy provinces right now, so I can't afford to trash coppers. Plus tiebreak VP can be big. I counter by remodeling estate into remodel, a pretty big mistake, I think, because the game is fast, and my plan of remodeling remodel into Grand Market, which I am actually able to get quite fortunately, is going to be available no matter what $4 I remodel into. So caravan or bishop were better. Probably in my situation, caravan. I'm not sure if I should have bought anything with my $3 on turn 6 though. I figured silver was not great, though it might be ok, and maybe even estate is not too early. Anyway, there are a couple of interesting decisions with trashing FG for gold, which I *think* were all made correctly, but I'm much less sure on my end than on his. He gets a little unlucky having us both get remodel with our other 4, negating my mistake of getting that second remodel. On turn 12, I could remodel GM into the last province, buy last estate, and... lose by a point, unfortunately for me. But his deck was significantly better by then, I couldn't get a lead or even if-I-get-the-last-province-I'll-be-in-the-lead, and he converted the remodeler's 1st turn advantage, remodeling province into the last province (though there were many $6 cards in his deck by then that he could also have drawn with it, not to mention just getting enough money). So a quite deserved win for him, even if propelled by a bit of luck and 1st turn. He did outplay me, too.
The game is so fast, tactician is never a viable option.

WanderingWinder

  • Adventurer
  • ******
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5275
  • ...doesn't really matter to me
  • Respect: +4368
    • View Profile
    • WanderingWinder YouTube Page
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #90 on: January 09, 2012, 02:16:07 pm »
0

Game 5: http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120108-191702-6bc98b43.html
Not gonna say a lot. He's just in a bad way here, and then either underestimates or more likely doesn't recognize the golden deck.

painted_cow

  • Moneylender
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 151
  • Respect: +19
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #91 on: January 09, 2012, 03:05:38 pm »
0

Really good writeup of the games, also the commentary was fun to watch. The first 2 games felt verly unlucky for Fabian after watching the videos, even when your analysis of G2 with his Money is right. G5 was really disappointing for me, that Fabian didnt go for Bishop. But hey, it was a live game, and I remember my G3 vs RisingJaguar as well, where I did a huge mistake in opening. Being on tilt after being down 1:3 wont help either there...
Logged

timchen

  • Minion
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 704
  • Shuffle iT Username: allfail
  • Respect: +233
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #92 on: January 09, 2012, 04:32:05 pm »
0

Following the discussions:

I think game #1 shows one interesting aspect of an IGG game: how good are Provinces actually in such a rush game? Suppose two players are racing for the gardens, then the garden split will cause a difference of 6-8 points. That is, if a single Province cost you the split, it is probably not worth it.

Maybe the more important question is when should the player start to take VPs? In this game, what we can see is that the two players only suspend at the IGG when there is one left. I don't think this is obviously the right answer. In other words, will it fare Fabian better, if he just gives up one or two more IGGs and creates a definite Garden split?

One additional thing I'd like to comment: one more curse in the deck does not hurt all that much; the variation of the shuffle creates much more difference.

In game #2, I was wrong about the PPR situation. I think the easiest way to see whether you should break PPR when your opponent has a worse deck is whether your opponent can kill you with a single Province buy out from the last two. I thought the VP split in a way that WW had to get the two Provinces at that point (I thought fabian got one more duchy there), but it is not the case.

When should you trash Fool's Gold for Gold? From the short term the answer is quite clear: whenever you cannot afford enough this turn or when you have excess and sort of "save" for the last turn. Probably this is all we need to know for the game, as it is bound to be at the later stage of the game anyway. Still, I find it somewhat amusing that even in the long run, trashing your FG's and get golds does not deter your deck all that much, if at all.

Logged

DG

  • Governor
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4071
  • Respect: +2611
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #93 on: January 09, 2012, 10:51:27 pm »
0

Quote
Maybe the more important question is when should the player start to take VPs? In this game, what we can see is that the two players only suspend at the IGG when there is one left. I don't think this is obviously the right answer.

My simulations suggested leaving three IGG in the supply if you haven't got a good points lead and finish off with green cards. Three isn't an entirely obvious number either. I suspect it could be quite difficult to tease out exactly the right conditions as it might involve the size of any score difference, size of the decks, whether an opponent will reshuffle or not, how gardens are split, and other odd factors.
Logged

Jorbles

  • Saboteur
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1466
  • Respect: +522
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #94 on: January 10, 2012, 01:21:48 pm »
0

I suspect that from this point on every match is going to be discussed in detail by those of us who are still following the tournament. Would it make sense for the results to be posted as their own topic on this board so the discussions about matches don't get confusing and are easy to sort when we're looking at forum updates?
Logged

theory

  • Administrator
  • *****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3594
  • Respect: +6035
    • View Profile
    • Dominion Strategy
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #95 on: January 10, 2012, 01:27:32 pm »
0

Good idea.  I'm going to wait for manzi v. Turambar (the last Division Finals) to wrap up, and then start making some new topics for the Final Four :)
Logged

Turambar

  • Baron
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 53
  • Respect: +44
    • View Profile
Logged

manzi

  • 2012 World Champion
  • *
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 16
  • Respect: +7
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #97 on: January 11, 2012, 08:40:42 am »
0

manzi defeats Turambar for 4-1

I missed logs so they will be posted soon by Turambar
Turambar, thanks for the game.
Logged

Kore

  • Ambassador
  • ***
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 34
  • Respect: +9
    • View Profile
Re: Schedule and Results, Part II
« Reply #98 on: January 11, 2012, 07:43:42 pm »
0

I'll wait for the analysis of better players but I'll just say that games #2 and #4 looked like they were very exciting with both players pursuing different strategies.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 [4]  All
 

Page created in 0.109 seconds with 21 queries.