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Author Topic: Cards for dust speculation  (Read 2671 times)

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popsofctown

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Cards for dust speculation
« on: December 10, 2014, 03:01:42 pm »
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Which cards do you guys think shouldn't be dusted in case they get nerfed?  You can get a lot of extra dust if you make good guesses about what might not get nerfed.  OTOH if you just never dust anything that isn't nerfed it can slow you down.

Some of my thoughts:

Don't dust, looks possibly kinda strong:
Feign Death
Dr. Boom
Troggzor
Zapomatic
Screwjank
Crackle (partly because of zapo)
Goblin Blastmage
Gallywix
Voljin

Don't dust, forward compatibility issues:
Hobgoblin
Feign Death
Sneed's Old Shredder
Shadowboxer
Velen's Chosen
Malganis

Don't dust because blizzard loves to nerf a peripheral card whenever Molten Giant does something good:
Tree of life
Antique Healbot
Coghammer
Echoes of mediv.
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Jorbles

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2014, 03:15:26 pm »
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I'd add these to your don't dust possibly kinda strong list:
Unstable Portal has a good shot of being nerfed I think. Maybe Jeeves? There's lots of new Jeeves based decks coming out that may or may not end up really strong.
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Galzria

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2014, 03:21:57 pm »
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Do you dust under 2 if you think you won't use them? I generally dust Golds out first (better cards sooner > shiny cards now), and then just auto-dust to 2 owned.
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Titandrake

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2014, 04:31:05 pm »
+1

If Blizzard changes a card, you can disenchant it for full value, so the optimal dusting strategy is to keep all copies cards you know will be changed, then disenchant all of them when the nerf comes around.

How much you dust depends on how well you think you can guess cards that will be nerfed, and how much you actually care about dust. As a primarily-arena player, I don't use dust too often, so I keep pretty much everything.
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popsofctown

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2014, 04:33:52 pm »
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Do you dust under 2 if you think you won't use them? I generally dust Golds out first (better cards sooner > shiny cards now), and then just auto-dust to 2 owned.
If you keep copies beyond 2 of a card and that card gets nerfed, you get a dust bonanza when you dust the extra copies.


Unstable portal doesn't seem nerfworthy.. or playable.. to me.
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Titandrake

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2014, 05:16:46 pm »
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Do you dust under 2 if you think you won't use them? I generally dust Golds out first (better cards sooner > shiny cards now), and then just auto-dust to 2 owned.
If you keep copies beyond 2 of a card and that card gets nerfed, you get a dust bonanza when you dust the extra copies.


Unstable portal doesn't seem nerfworthy.. or playable.. to me.

I haven't played the card yet either, but from testimony it's a lot better than it looks.

With some small chance, you get random 0-1 cost that wastes a card
With some middling chance, you get a random 2-3 cost that is at least okay.
With some middling chance, you get a random 4+ cost that's alright.
With some small chance, you get a card that breaks the game.

Basically, on average you expect to get some 2-3 cost that's just alright. If you pull a 4+ cost, it's very likely to take-over the game. Essentially, you think of the card as a delayed Innervate. If you pull, say, Spectral Knight/Spiteful Smith, you can drop it for 2 on turn 3. If you pull a 4 cost, you can drop that 4 cost + a 2 drop on turn 3, so even something like a 2/5 body can be tough to deal with.

When you get something not so good, you don't lose too much, and when you get something good, it can win you game, so on average it's pretty scary.

(As for why it's better than Far Sight, I think Far Sight both costs 1 more (which is a big deal), and Far Sight requires you to run the expensive card you hope to draw with it. With Unstable Portal, you can put it into a low curve deck, so it keeps aggro decks more streamlined.)
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2014, 05:27:50 pm »
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Unstable portal doesn't seem nerfworthy.. or playable.. to me.

A card doesn't even have to be strong to get nerfed. It just has to be part of something broken. Look at Frost Nova, for example.
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popsofctown

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2014, 06:11:13 pm »
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Unstable portal doesn't seem nerfworthy.. or playable.. to me.

A card doesn't even have to be strong to get nerfed. It just has to be part of something broken. Look at Frost Nova, for example.
Frost Nova decks weren't OP, they were just unfun to fight, according to Ben Brode.  Unstable portal has pretty good fun factor to it for both players involved.
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nkirbit

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #8 on: December 10, 2014, 06:18:41 pm »
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Unstable portal doesn't seem nerfworthy.. or playable.. to me.

A card doesn't even have to be strong to get nerfed. It just has to be part of something broken. Look at Frost Nova, for example.
Frost Nova decks weren't OP, they were just unfun to fight, according to Ben Brode.  Unstable portal has pretty good fun factor to it for both players involved.

I'm not sure I agree with the last part.  Unstable Portal seems like a frustrating card to play against.  I get that it's probably not overpowered, but getting beat by turn 3 Cairne or something doesn't seem particularly fun to me, especially when the card tells you, "Hey!  You only lost that game because your opponent got really lucky off of his Unstable Portal!"
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popsofctown

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2014, 06:30:38 pm »
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Unstable portal doesn't seem nerfworthy.. or playable.. to me.

A card doesn't even have to be strong to get nerfed. It just has to be part of something broken. Look at Frost Nova, for example.
Frost Nova decks weren't OP, they were just unfun to fight, according to Ben Brode.  Unstable portal has pretty good fun factor to it for both players involved.

I'm not sure I agree with the last part.  Unstable Portal seems like a frustrating card to play against.  I get that it's probably not overpowered, but getting beat by turn 3 Cairne or something doesn't seem particularly fun to me, especially when the card tells you, "Hey!  You only lost that game because your opponent got really lucky off of his Unstable Portal!"

Maybe.  I would think it's a little funny.  Ok, maybe it will be nerfed because people don't share my sense of humor.

Juggernaut and Flame Leviathan might get nerfed for being annoying too
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Jorbles

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2014, 08:20:38 pm »
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Do you dust under 2 if you think you won't use them? I generally dust Golds out first (better cards sooner > shiny cards now), and then just auto-dust to 2 owned.
If you keep copies beyond 2 of a card and that card gets nerfed, you get a dust bonanza when you dust the extra copies.


Unstable portal doesn't seem nerfworthy.. or playable.. to me.

I haven't played the card yet either, but from testimony it's a lot better than it looks.

With some small chance, you get random 0-1 cost that wastes a card
With some middling chance, you get a random 2-3 cost that is at least okay.
With some middling chance, you get a random 4+ cost that's alright.
With some small chance, you get a card that breaks the game.

Basically, on average you expect to get some 2-3 cost that's just alright. If you pull a 4+ cost, it's very likely to take-over the game. Essentially, you think of the card as a delayed Innervate. If you pull, say, Spectral Knight/Spiteful Smith, you can drop it for 2 on turn 3. If you pull a 4 cost, you can drop that 4 cost + a 2 drop on turn 3, so even something like a 2/5 body can be tough to deal with.

When you get something not so good, you don't lose too much, and when you get something good, it can win you game, so on average it's pretty scary.

(As for why it's better than Far Sight, I think Far Sight both costs 1 more (which is a big deal), and Far Sight requires you to run the expensive card you hope to draw with it. With Unstable Portal, you can put it into a low curve deck, so it keeps aggro decks more streamlined.)

Here's why I think it's good (cross quote from other thread), and actually seeing the numbers and what it does to your curve shows why it's so strong. It's not just middling chances of getting a 4+.
The deck was really strong though. I'm not sold on the Unstable Portals with that many low cost minions though. The draw was impressive, the ability to lock down weapon users was strong, and there was enough cheap taunt to hide behind to make the engine start clicking.

I think Unstable Portal is kindof a broken card, and essential in Mage right now. Think about it this way:
8.5% of the time you get screwed and get a 0-1 drop. This is bad, but you still get a creature you just overpaid for it.
14.5% of the time you get a 2 drop, which is probably not great, but you still got a 2 drop for 2.
14.5% of the time you get a 3 drop, which you get to play ahead of curve, but you don't get to pick it. There's some bad options here, but on average this is good.
62.5% of the time you get a 4+ drop which you get to play 3 turns early. Yes, some of these cards will be bad, but 3 turns early means even a Priestess of Lelune or a Nightblade is starting to look really good. And when you get a good card (a Kel'Thuzad, a Ragnaros, a Grommosh, a Ysera) you get to play it so early that it can just win you the game.

Edit: Source

62.5% chance of something really good and ahead of curve is really good. I suspect they'll probably make Unstable cost a mana more when they nerf it and it'll still probably be okay then.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #11 on: December 10, 2014, 10:14:08 pm »
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^So that's not quite right. First of all it's not "really good and ahead of curve". It's probably good because it's ahead of curve, but not necessarily a good card. Second, if it's a 4 drop, you only get it one turn early at best since you had to play the Unstable Portal turn 2. Similarly 5 drops are only 2 turns early. Third, if you get one of these expensive minions, you lost the tempo of being able to play a minion turn 2, so some of the benefit of the earlier big minion is absorbed by that being behind.
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popsofctown

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #12 on: December 10, 2014, 10:20:04 pm »
+2

Unstable Portal lets you discard a silver for three coin tokens.

There's the saving money for later part, and the getting more than you let go of part.

I think it might be pretty strong but I doubt its OP
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Kirian

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2014, 10:56:03 am »
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^So that's not quite right. First of all it's not "really good and ahead of curve". It's probably good because it's ahead of curve, but not necessarily a good card. Second, if it's a 4 drop, you only get it one turn early at best since you had to play the Unstable Portal turn 2. Similarly 5 drops are only 2 turns early. Third, if you get one of these expensive minions, you lost the tempo of being able to play a minion turn 2, so some of the benefit of the earlier big minion is absorbed by that being behind.

...for Player 1.

Coin-Unstable Portal on T1 could be gigantic, with a 5-drop on T2 or 6-drop on T3 being good possibilities.  Even 2-drop plus a free 3-drop on T2 is really ahead of curve.

Conversely, Unstable Portal on T2, followed by a 7-drop on T3, or 3- and 4-drop.

P2 has a massive advantage on UP usage, and I think it'll get nerfed just based on that.
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Jorbles

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #14 on: December 11, 2014, 01:05:06 pm »
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^So that's not quite right. First of all it's not "really good and ahead of curve". It's probably good because it's ahead of curve, but not necessarily a good card. Second, if it's a 4 drop, you only get it one turn early at best since you had to play the Unstable Portal turn 2. Similarly 5 drops are only 2 turns early. Third, if you get one of these expensive minions, you lost the tempo of being able to play a minion turn 2, so some of the benefit of the earlier big minion is absorbed by that being behind.

If it's a 4 drop you only get it one turn early, but you also get it for 1 mana. Which means you get a 4 drop and a 2 drop/spell/hero power. That's a big tempo swing (and more than enough to offset any tempo you lost the previous turn). Also what kirian said.
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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2014, 06:59:58 pm »
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If it's a 4 drop you only get it one turn early, but you also get it for 1 mana. Which means you get a 4 drop and a 2 drop/spell/hero power. That's a big tempo swing (and more than enough to offset any tempo you lost the previous turn). Also what kirian said.

"more than enough"? Maybe barely enough. Your (random) 4-drop is a turn early, but your 2-drop is a turn late. You might get a slight advantage, but this is not a blowout. If their 3-drop buffs their 2 to kill your 4, (or if they get some good use from the coin) you're actually behind.

I don't think Unstable Portal is bad. I think you're waaay overstating it when you say it's a blowout 62.5% of the time. It's a blowout maybe 10% of the time, and just reasonable the rest of the time. It's good in the sense that it's rarely bad (less often than it is good), and sometimes reaally good. But most of the time it's decent to kind-of-good. It's more like:
5% bad
20% kind of bad
15% wash
40% kind of good
10% really good
These numbers are totally made up, but probably more accurate than saying 62.5% really good.
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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2014, 11:22:53 pm »
+1

Speaking of dust...I just did the math and I only need 119840 dust to have a copy of every craftable, non-golden card possible.
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Jorbles

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Re: Cards for dust speculation
« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2014, 02:46:19 am »
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If it's a 4 drop you only get it one turn early, but you also get it for 1 mana. Which means you get a 4 drop and a 2 drop/spell/hero power. That's a big tempo swing (and more than enough to offset any tempo you lost the previous turn). Also what kirian said.

"more than enough"? Maybe barely enough. Your (random) 4-drop is a turn early, but your 2-drop is a turn late. You might get a slight advantage, but this is not a blowout. If their 3-drop buffs their 2 to kill your 4, (or if they get some good use from the coin) you're actually behind.

I don't think Unstable Portal is bad. I think you're waaay overstating it when you say it's a blowout 62.5% of the time. It's a blowout maybe 10% of the time, and just reasonable the rest of the time. It's good in the sense that it's rarely bad (less often than it is good), and sometimes reaally good. But most of the time it's decent to kind-of-good. It's more like:
5% bad
20% kind of bad
15% wash
40% kind of good
10% really good
These numbers are totally made up, but probably more accurate than saying 62.5% really good.

Okay, maybe I overspoke, but I still think the card is reasonably likely to be nerfed.
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