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GeoLib

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Re: Prismata
« Reply #250 on: January 04, 2015, 05:17:04 am »
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Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #251 on: January 04, 2015, 05:32:28 am »
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Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

I think the most common draw hinges around Blastforge, actually, not Wall: you've breached me and killed off most of my Tarsiers, but I get one last attack with them to reduce you to 2 or fewer damage yourself; eventually, you can kill everything but my Blastforge.

As an example of how a game can end in a draw, see Rrkgn-aQJpa. This one was actually a win (I don't recall ever getting an actual draw, and it's impossible to search for one to see if I'm wrong), but if I'd made one more health worth of mistakes, my opponent's last Grimbotch would have killed my Cynestra and then timed out, leaving neither of us any attackers or income at all.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #252 on: January 04, 2015, 07:33:07 am »
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Well, in Prismata, the game is going to be 100% a forced win for one player or the other every single time. This isn't true in chess (probably anyway, chess seems to be a draw with perfect play), and it certainly isn't true in a game with randomness like HS. HS has enough inherent randomness to stop a lot of big swings anyway.

I think what you are talking about is, if it's a problem if there's a way to force a win that's too obvious, too easy to figure out.

I don't see why draws are impossible in Prismata. If I destroy your final Tarsier with my Pixie, and then both of us are left with no gold income, no attackers and no attackers that cost only G/R/B, the match is going to be a draw. It's definitely a rare example, but it's not impossible.

Sure, you're right.

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Re: Prismata
« Reply #253 on: January 04, 2015, 09:44:45 am »
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yeah, I think draws are extremely uncommon. I never had one.

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Re: Prismata
« Reply #254 on: January 04, 2015, 10:35:29 am »
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yeah, I think draws are extremely uncommon. I never had one.
I haven't either. I think when it happens, there is usually still one player with attack, but the other player has a unit (e.g., blastforge) which the attacker can never destroy. And of course neither has any drones.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #255 on: January 04, 2015, 02:25:25 pm »
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yeah, I think draws are extremely uncommon. I never had one.
I haven't either. I think when it happens, there is usually still one player with attack, but the other player has a unit (e.g., blastforge) which the attacker can never destroy. And of course neither has any drones.
It seems like it'd be most frequent in green breach resilient mirrors where things break down into constantly breaching eachother, then someone wins the gauss cannon trading by only 2 gauss cannons and there's a blastforge on the other side. 
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #256 on: January 04, 2015, 02:33:18 pm »
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It seems like it'd be most frequent [...] gauss cannons

No.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #257 on: January 04, 2015, 02:38:15 pm »
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In perfect play, I don't know how often draws happen.

As a noob, I just had a draw against Master Bot. After lots of silly turns, I got to the point where the bot had no drones to buy more economy because of the "use attack to kill a Drone" unit, but the bot had enough Tarsiers/Rhinos to overpower the amount of defense I could buy each turn. After some defense decisions I ended with 1 attack vs 0 attack, which wasn't enough to kill the bot's Animus.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #258 on: January 05, 2015, 06:50:09 am »
0

Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #259 on: January 05, 2015, 08:30:43 am »
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Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
In chess, the losing player can play to the draw better than the winning player can play away from it, at least sometimes.  In Dominion, the winning player has tremendous ability to play away from the draw, it seems to me.
In Prismata, I think everyone's still at a novice level and stuff but I could forsee maybe really masterful players being able to play towards a draw.  Especially with some specific card out there, maybe cluster bolt
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #260 on: January 05, 2015, 10:08:26 am »
0

Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
In chess, the losing player can play to the draw better than the winning player can play away from it, at least sometimes.  In Dominion, the winning player has tremendous ability to play away from the draw, it seems to me.
In Prismata, I think everyone's still at a novice level and stuff but I could forsee maybe really masterful players being able to play towards a draw.  Especially with some specific card out there, maybe cluster bolt

To some extent, I agree. The game is still in it's infancy. The current top level players would likely be novices by this time next year, if players keep improving. But I think the issue is that draws are an extremely fine line in Prismata - often just the difference of one attack, perhaps even one attack for one turn can swing a draw to a win or loss. And sometimes, that line just isn't there at all - one extra attack would mean killing their last attackers instead of the other way around, and you can sweep from there. I feel like draws will be more common in high level play, eventually, but nowhere near the level of chess. Perhaps mid single digit percentages, at best.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #261 on: January 05, 2015, 03:06:16 pm »
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Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
In chess, the losing player can play to the draw better than the winning player can play away from it, at least sometimes.  In Dominion, the winning player has tremendous ability to play away from the draw, it seems to me.
In Prismata, I think everyone's still at a novice level and stuff but I could forsee maybe really masterful players being able to play towards a draw.  Especially with some specific card out there, maybe cluster bolt

To some extent, I agree. The game is still in it's infancy. The current top level players would likely be novices by this time next year, if players keep improving. But I think the issue is that draws are an extremely fine line in Prismata - often just the difference of one attack, perhaps even one attack for one turn can swing a draw to a win or loss. And sometimes, that line just isn't there at all - one extra attack would mean killing their last attackers instead of the other way around, and you can sweep from there. I feel like draws will be more common in high level play, eventually, but nowhere near the level of chess. Perhaps mid single digit percentages, at best.
It seems like you're taking Tarsier as a given, but in certain sets it definitely seems to me that Tarsier is not a given.  If temporary breach pressure tools outweigh the strength of the walls the right way both players may be well served by avoiding Tarsier entirely.  So the attacker will be Gauss Cannon
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #262 on: January 05, 2015, 03:55:47 pm »
+2

Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
In chess, the losing player can play to the draw better than the winning player can play away from it, at least sometimes.  In Dominion, the winning player has tremendous ability to play away from the draw, it seems to me.
In Prismata, I think everyone's still at a novice level and stuff but I could forsee maybe really masterful players being able to play towards a draw.  Especially with some specific card out there, maybe cluster bolt

To some extent, I agree. The game is still in it's infancy. The current top level players would likely be novices by this time next year, if players keep improving. But I think the issue is that draws are an extremely fine line in Prismata - often just the difference of one attack, perhaps even one attack for one turn can swing a draw to a win or loss. And sometimes, that line just isn't there at all - one extra attack would mean killing their last attackers instead of the other way around, and you can sweep from there. I feel like draws will be more common in high level play, eventually, but nowhere near the level of chess. Perhaps mid single digit percentages, at best.
It seems like you're taking Tarsier as a given, but in certain sets it definitely seems to me that Tarsier is not a given.  If temporary breach pressure tools outweigh the strength of the walls the right way both players may be well served by avoiding Tarsier entirely.  So the attacker will be Gauss Cannon

It's true that sometimes you can ignore Tarsier, but even then, Gauss Cannon doesn't really enter the picture.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #263 on: January 05, 2015, 05:08:46 pm »
0

Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
In chess, the losing player can play to the draw better than the winning player can play away from it, at least sometimes.  In Dominion, the winning player has tremendous ability to play away from the draw, it seems to me.
In Prismata, I think everyone's still at a novice level and stuff but I could forsee maybe really masterful players being able to play towards a draw.  Especially with some specific card out there, maybe cluster bolt

To some extent, I agree. The game is still in it's infancy. The current top level players would likely be novices by this time next year, if players keep improving. But I think the issue is that draws are an extremely fine line in Prismata - often just the difference of one attack, perhaps even one attack for one turn can swing a draw to a win or loss. And sometimes, that line just isn't there at all - one extra attack would mean killing their last attackers instead of the other way around, and you can sweep from there. I feel like draws will be more common in high level play, eventually, but nowhere near the level of chess. Perhaps mid single digit percentages, at best.
It seems like you're taking Tarsier as a given, but in certain sets it definitely seems to me that Tarsier is not a given.  If temporary breach pressure tools outweigh the strength of the walls the right way both players may be well served by avoiding Tarsier entirely.  So the attacker will be Gauss Cannon

I never mentioned Tarsiers at all. Heck I wasn't even thinking of anything in particular, just the nature of how the game ends. You've set up a strawman argument for what I said. Games which just come down to players shooting each others last Gauss Canons might end up a draw because 1 attack doesn't break Animus, it's a possibility. It seems fairly rare though.

Anyway, I asked and got numbers from the dev. Around 0.2% of games end in draws currently, and at top level play it's around 1.2%. http://www.reddit.com/r/Prismata/comments/2re7to/any_data_on_draw_rate/cnfh1r7?context=3
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #264 on: January 05, 2015, 06:38:15 pm »
0

Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
In chess, the losing player can play to the draw better than the winning player can play away from it, at least sometimes.  In Dominion, the winning player has tremendous ability to play away from the draw, it seems to me.
In Prismata, I think everyone's still at a novice level and stuff but I could forsee maybe really masterful players being able to play towards a draw.  Especially with some specific card out there, maybe cluster bolt

To some extent, I agree. The game is still in it's infancy. The current top level players would likely be novices by this time next year, if players keep improving. But I think the issue is that draws are an extremely fine line in Prismata - often just the difference of one attack, perhaps even one attack for one turn can swing a draw to a win or loss. And sometimes, that line just isn't there at all - one extra attack would mean killing their last attackers instead of the other way around, and you can sweep from there. I feel like draws will be more common in high level play, eventually, but nowhere near the level of chess. Perhaps mid single digit percentages, at best.
It seems like you're taking Tarsier as a given, but in certain sets it definitely seems to me that Tarsier is not a given.  If temporary breach pressure tools outweigh the strength of the walls the right way both players may be well served by avoiding Tarsier entirely.  So the attacker will be Gauss Cannon

I never mentioned Tarsiers at all. Heck I wasn't even thinking of anything in particular, just the nature of how the game ends. You've set up a strawman argument for what I said. Games which just come down to players shooting each others last Gauss Canons might end up a draw because 1 attack doesn't break Animus, it's a possibility. It seems fairly rare though.

Anyway, I asked and got numbers from the dev. Around 0.2% of games end in draws currently, and at top level play it's around 1.2%. http://www.reddit.com/r/Prismata/comments/2re7to/any_data_on_draw_rate/cnfh1r7?context=3
Blastforge has 3 hp, so why isn't it the bigger deal than animus?
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #265 on: January 06, 2015, 03:56:55 pm »
+1

Yeah, but how many of those scenarios result from perfect play on both sides?

Well, nobody can say about perfect play, of course: we aren't close to that level. In practice draws are quite rare, perhaps in the neighborhood of 1% of games.

My personal feeling is the odds would be lower than that. Like probably somewhere around 0.1-0.5% of games. If you think about how uncommon draws are in Dominion (about 5% of the time) and consider that it's a lot easier to tie here than in Prismata due to needing numbers to fall pretty much perfectly. But really it'd just be a case of finding the data and looking at it once the sample size is large enough. I doubt there's been enough games yet to get a good estimate of the draw rate.
In chess, the losing player can play to the draw better than the winning player can play away from it, at least sometimes.  In Dominion, the winning player has tremendous ability to play away from the draw, it seems to me.
In Prismata, I think everyone's still at a novice level and stuff but I could forsee maybe really masterful players being able to play towards a draw.  Especially with some specific card out there, maybe cluster bolt

To some extent, I agree. The game is still in it's infancy. The current top level players would likely be novices by this time next year, if players keep improving. But I think the issue is that draws are an extremely fine line in Prismata - often just the difference of one attack, perhaps even one attack for one turn can swing a draw to a win or loss. And sometimes, that line just isn't there at all - one extra attack would mean killing their last attackers instead of the other way around, and you can sweep from there. I feel like draws will be more common in high level play, eventually, but nowhere near the level of chess. Perhaps mid single digit percentages, at best.
It seems like you're taking Tarsier as a given, but in certain sets it definitely seems to me that Tarsier is not a given.  If temporary breach pressure tools outweigh the strength of the walls the right way both players may be well served by avoiding Tarsier entirely.  So the attacker will be Gauss Cannon

I never mentioned Tarsiers at all. Heck I wasn't even thinking of anything in particular, just the nature of how the game ends. You've set up a strawman argument for what I said. Games which just come down to players shooting each others last Gauss Canons might end up a draw because 1 attack doesn't break Animus, it's a possibility. It seems fairly rare though.

Anyway, I asked and got numbers from the dev. Around 0.2% of games end in draws currently, and at top level play it's around 1.2%. http://www.reddit.com/r/Prismata/comments/2re7to/any_data_on_draw_rate/cnfh1r7?context=3
Blastforge has 3 hp, so why isn't it the bigger deal than animus?

Because it's fragile?
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #266 on: January 06, 2015, 04:10:03 pm »
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Because it's fragile?
Blastforge isn't fragile. Just Conduit is.

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Re: Prismata
« Reply #267 on: January 06, 2015, 04:12:53 pm »
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #268 on: January 06, 2015, 05:11:12 pm »
+1

Because it's fragile?



That's not an opinion, actually. Didn't realise Blastforge wasn't fragile (I haven't played that many games). Thought the were 2 HP, 2 HP fragile and 3 HP fragile. Guess that does actually make draws somewhat more likely.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #269 on: January 06, 2015, 05:25:58 pm »
+1

Because it's fragile?



That's not an opinion, actually. Didn't realise Blastforge wasn't fragile (I haven't played that many games). Thought the were 2 HP, 2 HP fragile and 3 HP fragile. Guess that does actually make draws somewhat more likely.

Only green stuff is fragile.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #270 on: January 06, 2015, 05:31:18 pm »
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Because it's fragile?



That's not an opinion, actually. Didn't realise Blastforge wasn't fragile (I haven't played that many games). Thought the were 2 HP, 2 HP fragile and 3 HP fragile. Guess that does actually make draws somewhat more likely.

Only green stuff is fragile.

But not all green stuff is fragile.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #271 on: January 06, 2015, 05:32:48 pm »
0

Just some patterns I've noticed with the colors:

-Green things are almost always fragile, often high-health (breach resistant). They also are the only ones that sacrifice Drones.
-Blue things are expensive, not fragile, high health blockers. Weak attackers generally. Favors big econ/long games.
-Red things are animals. Not fragile, low health, strong attackers, favor rushes/low econ
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #272 on: January 06, 2015, 05:33:32 pm »
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But not all green stuff is fragile.

Everything pure-green is, though. Unless you count Gauss Charge, with one non-fragile health.
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #273 on: January 06, 2015, 05:37:43 pm »
0

Just some patterns I've noticed with the colors:

-Green things are almost always fragile, often high-health (breach resistant). They also are the only ones that sacrifice Drones.
-Blue things are expensive, not fragile, high health blockers. Weak attackers generally. Favors big econ/long games.
-Red things are animals. Not fragile, low health, strong attackers, favor rushes/low econ

There's more to it than this, really. https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/lunarchstudios/prismata-a-new-hybrid-game-of-pure-strategy/posts/1077818 is a kickstarter post about the flavor bits that go into the three different colors. For example, you missed that only red units have stamina (because only biological things get tired).
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Re: Prismata
« Reply #274 on: January 06, 2015, 05:41:42 pm »
0

Just some patterns I've noticed with the colors:

-Green things are almost always fragile, often high-health (breach resistant). They also are the only ones that sacrifice Drones.

You mean, aside from Lucina Spinos, Ossified Drone (Red) and Steelforge (Colourless, kinda blue). EDGECASED!

Lorewise, blue units are mechs built from a super strong alloy, and green units are basically energy based or something.

PPE: it would be nice if people stopped ninja'ing me so much. Jeez.

EDIT:

But not all green stuff is fragile.

Everything pure-green is, though. Unless you count Gauss Charge, with one non-fragile health.

And barrier, plexo cell, and fission turret :P
« Last Edit: January 06, 2015, 06:05:15 pm by pacovf »
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pacovf has a neopets account.  It has 999 hours logged.  All his neopets are named "Jessica".  I guess that must be his ex.
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