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Author Topic: Homage to the Best Card  (Read 2288801 times)

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GendoIkari

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5925 on: February 20, 2017, 05:15:39 pm »
+2


You actually had that happen every single time and got so traumatized that you decided to take some drug from the future, in an attempt to wipe your memory clean. The 7% are lasting damage that couldn't be removed.

Ah, these must have been the same games in which Farming Village discarded 1 or more cards before drawing, which would explain why he couldn't remember that ever happening also!
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Awaclus

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5926 on: February 20, 2017, 05:29:24 pm »
0


You actually had that happen every single time and got so traumatized that you decided to take some drug from the future, in an attempt to wipe your memory clean. The 7% are lasting damage that couldn't be removed.

Ah, these must have been the same games in which Farming Village discarded 1 or more cards before drawing, which would explain why he couldn't remember that ever happening also!

Seriously though, both are incredibly rare events.
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Bomb, Cannon, and many of the Gunpowder cards can strongly effect gameplay, particularly in a destructive way

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Minotaur

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5927 on: February 20, 2017, 07:52:13 pm »
+5

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5928 on: February 21, 2017, 05:55:52 am »
0


You actually had that happen every single time and got so traumatized that you decided to take some drug from the future, in an attempt to wipe your memory clean. The 7% are lasting damage that couldn't be removed.

Ah, these must have been the same games in which Farming Village discarded 1 or more cards before drawing, which would explain why he couldn't remember that ever happening also!

Seriously though, both are incredibly rare events.
I would expect a deck size of 20, at the absolute upper limit, when warrior first gets played in a game. That's being very generous.
In which case there's roughly a 1/20 chance of it happening in any given game, even if warrior only reveals one card. (This assuming both players have got to their warrior at similar times, which is likely.)
1/20 is not "incredibly rare" by any stretch of the imagination.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Awaclus

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5929 on: February 21, 2017, 06:10:39 am »
0

I would expect a deck size of 20, at the absolute upper limit, when warrior first gets played in a game. That's being very generous.
In which case there's roughly a 1/20 chance of it happening in any given game, even if warrior only reveals one card. (This assuming both players have got to their warrior at similar times, which is likely.)
1/20 is not "incredibly rare" by any stretch of the imagination.

It is incredibly rare. You shouldn't really take 1/20 chances into account when making decisions unless it costs literally nothing to do so or you're already way ahead in the game. By pretending that Warrior never hits Warrior, you might lose perhaps one in 300 games you play because of that, which is minuscule compared with the total advantage you get in the rest of those games.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2017, 06:13:39 am by Awaclus »
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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5930 on: February 21, 2017, 08:38:10 am »
0

I would expect a deck size of 20, at the absolute upper limit, when warrior first gets played in a game. That's being very generous.
In which case there's roughly a 1/20 chance of it happening in any given game, even if warrior only reveals one card. (This assuming both players have got to their warrior at similar times, which is likely.)
1/20 is not "incredibly rare" by any stretch of the imagination.

It is incredibly rare. You shouldn't really take 1/20 chances into account when making decisions unless it costs literally nothing to do so or you're already way ahead in the game. By pretending that Warrior never hits Warrior, you might lose perhaps one in 300 games you play because of that, which is minuscule compared with the total advantage you get in the rest of those games.
I agree with everything except the bolded part.
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Awaclus

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5931 on: February 21, 2017, 10:17:47 am »
0

I agree with everything except the bolded part.

But why do you take issue with it?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5932 on: February 21, 2017, 10:21:40 am »
+1

If only there were some way to quantify the actual probability, then we wouldn't have to rely on such qualitative descriptions as 'incredibly rare'.
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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5933 on: February 21, 2017, 02:01:29 pm »
0

I agree with everything except the bolded part.

But why do you take issue with it?
Are you surprised people are arguing semantics?
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Awaclus

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5934 on: February 21, 2017, 02:43:04 pm »
0

I agree with everything except the bolded part.

But why do you take issue with it?
Are you surprised people are arguing semantics?

There is a difference between arguing semantics when it serves a strategical purpose and arguing semantics when it doesn't.
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pacovf

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5935 on: February 21, 2017, 02:59:21 pm »
0

...do go on.
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terminalCopper

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5936 on: February 21, 2017, 05:41:26 pm »
+1

You shouldn't really take 1/20 chances into account when making decisions
That being said, we should limit the max. number of cards in the thread "potential neat interactions" to 1.
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werothegreat

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5937 on: February 21, 2017, 05:54:50 pm »
+6

You shouldn't really take 1/20 chances into account when making decisions
That being said, we should limit the max. number of cards in the thread "potential neat interactions" to 1.

"Minion is great as a single-card engine..."

"TOO MANY CARDS NOT USEFUL"
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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5938 on: February 21, 2017, 05:55:53 pm »
+1

You shouldn't really take 1/20 chances into account when making decisions

Those are literally the odds of getting either a crit fail or a crit success in D&D
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GendoIkari

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5939 on: February 21, 2017, 06:06:50 pm »
+3

You shouldn't really take 1/20 chances into account when making decisions

Those are literally the odds of getting either a crit fail or a crit success in D&D

And... you probably shouldn't be making decisions in D&D based on the chance of getting a crit fail or crit success....
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pacovf

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5940 on: February 21, 2017, 06:36:46 pm »
+1

In Fire Emblem, on the other hand...
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Minotaur

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5941 on: February 21, 2017, 08:20:33 pm »
+6

In Fire Emblem, on the other hand...

Reload every time anyone dies until you can't stand playing anymore?
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SirClemens

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5942 on: February 27, 2017, 06:31:17 am »
+8

Getting rid of the starting cards

« Last Edit: February 27, 2017, 07:53:48 am by SirClemens »
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Minotaur

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5943 on: February 27, 2017, 11:35:40 am »
+1

Trashing a hand full of Rats with Bomb:  The Jim Carrey Institute for Being Really Enlightened Like Whoa Man hasn't created an image profound enough for this yet, but they're working on it.
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Minotaur

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5944 on: March 07, 2017, 11:26:28 am »
0

I'm still in favour of Disney. There are enough characters to choose from, and to be honest, I'd love to see the cast start with boring old Mickey Mouse and Co to get more obscure each expansion. I want to Black Cauldron my Roger Rabbit, you hear?

That's not to say you didn't do an amazing job with these, Wero.

Spice Merchant looks like the opening scene of Aladdin.

Also, Star Wars is Disney now, lolol.  "X is Disney" is the new "Simpsons did it."
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Minotaur

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5945 on: March 09, 2017, 07:12:21 am »
0

omg, I Processioned a Magpie and gained a Natalie.  Is this canon?!?  Donald confirm plskthx!!!
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Witherweaver

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5946 on: March 09, 2017, 08:33:17 am »
+1

omg, I Processioned a Magpie and gained a Natalie.  Is this canon?!?  Donald confirm plskthx!!!

If you put it in the FAQ thread, he has to answer.  It is known.
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Minotaur

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5947 on: March 09, 2017, 09:44:56 pm »
0

omg, I Processioned a Magpie and gained a Natalie.  Is this canon?!?  Donald confirm plskthx!!!

If you put it in the FAQ thread, he has to answer.  It is known.

I'd feel bad because the "once >= frequently" thing.
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Haddock

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5948 on: March 21, 2017, 11:21:51 am »
0

You shouldn't really take 1/20 chances into account when making decisions

Those are literally the odds of getting either a crit fail or a crit success in D&D

And... you probably shouldn't be making decisions in D&D based on the chance of getting a crit fail or crit success....
Not on a small scale.  But on a larger-scale discussion, you absolutely should take that into account.  Say you're planning to go fight a dragon with a 5-player team.  In your planning, you presumably have some idea of roughly how much damage your group can deal per round, on average.

And that average ABSOLUTELY includes the likelihood that you're going to roll one or two crit fails/successes.   You'd instinctively take that into account.


A similar principle applies here.  "On average I'll do a little bit of damage to my opponent's deck with my Warrior - that average amount is increased somewhat by the possibility that I hit my opponent's Warrior." 
The upside is so huge here that the overall "average damage" (as it were) is probably dragged up noticeably even if the likelihood of the event is small. 
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The best reason to lynch Haddock is the meltdown we get to witness on the wagon runup. I mean, we should totally wagon him every day just for the lulz.

M Town Wins-Losses (6-2, 75%): 71, 72, 76, 81, 83, 87 - 79, 82.  M Scum Wins-Losses (2-1, 67%): 80, 101 - 70.
RMM Town Wins-Losses (3-1, 75%): 42, 47, 49 - 31.  RMM Scum Wins-Losses (3-3, 50%): 33, 37, 43 - 29, 32, 35.
Modded: M75, M84, RMM38.     Mislynched (M-RMM): None - 42.     Correctly lynched (M-RMM): 101 - 33, 33, 35.       MVPs: RMM37, M87

Witherweaver

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Re: Homage to the Best Card
« Reply #5949 on: March 21, 2017, 11:27:10 am »
+1

In other words, E[X] = sum_x(x*P(X=x)).

P(X=x) can be very small, but x can be large enough (or can not be)  to overcome that.
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