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Author Topic: opening buys? - my intuition was off  (Read 2879 times)

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-Stef-

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opening buys? - my intuition was off
« on: October 01, 2014, 06:25:48 pm »
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Native Village, University, Steward, Coppersmith, Moneylender, Spice Merchant, Laboratory, Market, Merchant Ship, Possession
I put some of the words in spoiler tags so you can think about the kingdom yourself first if you feel like it.

I played this kingdom against yed yesterday. We both opened 4/3 and started with Potion/Steward
However, after the game I started wondering and today I tested out a different opening with Andrew Iannaconne.
He would continue to open Potion/Steward but I would in fact get Spice Merchant/Steward
Unfortunately goko lost one of our logs but here are the remaining: 1 2 3 4

Our conclusion was that Spice Merchant/Steward is just plain better. If nobody has any collisions its quite close, but collisions totally kill Potion/Steward, while the Spice Merchant/Steward is completely immune to this
(original game against yed)
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liopoil

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2014, 06:39:40 pm »
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I'd open potion-steward. Haven't looked at spoilers yet.

EDIT: Looked at spoilers. Interesting. You don't need university right away?
« Last Edit: October 01, 2014, 06:40:57 pm by liopoil »
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soulnet

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2014, 06:59:56 pm »
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I wonder if double Steward is better than either option.

On a completely different direction, this board looks like it could go into stalemate. I wonder if a deck of NVs, Labs and Possessions (with one Steward) that can do nothing but play two or three Possessions per turn is achievable before the game is too close to finish for it to be the winning move. If it is, then it is a question of whether someone can win before both destroy their economy.
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DG

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2014, 07:50:29 pm »
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I think you're probably right on the spice merchant. In the AI test games his card play prioritized trashing over the university, however the opening of steward/potion prioritized the university over trashing.
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KingZog3

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2014, 09:32:49 pm »
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I've started very often not to open Potion when strong trashing is present. Often the rate you can buy the potion cost card after trashing is much faster than just opening potion. Then you get to play university more often, since your deck is thin. Especially true with $3P cards, and I'd say university too. Apothecary is an exception.
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Titandrake

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2014, 01:52:37 pm »
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I considered Potion-Steward at first, but agree that SM-Steward is better. The way I see it, if they collide, Potion-Steward is massive tempo loss, while SM-Steward is perfectly fine. If they don't collide, the idea scenario is that you get a University, but your deck is small enough with Spice Merchant that you aren't very far behind (plus the extra cycling means you can cycle a bit faster as well. The ~30%(?) chance of almost certain death isn't worth the upside.

Steward-Steward just seems worse than either - on collision it's ~Potion/Steward, on not collision you can trash 1 extra card but lose the potential chance to buy a Potion. Could be wrong though.
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soulnet

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2014, 02:00:08 pm »
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Steward-Steward just seems worse than either - on collision it's ~Potion/Steward, on not collision you can trash 1 extra card but lose the potential chance to buy a Potion. Could be wrong though.

You can also get draw/coins on non-collision, and Steward seems better after you get a University. Anyway, I guess it depends what's the ultimate goal of the deck. If my intuition about Possession is correct, you probably want the Stewards, because it will both cycle and trash down faster in the long run.
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liopoil

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2014, 02:02:23 pm »
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I think the main reason SM-steward may be better is that while the $5s are worth getting, you don't need to rush them right from the start. If there was a key $5 which you wanted lots of, potion would probably be better. Here you have more time so can afford to get potion on the second shuffle
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markusin

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2014, 10:50:26 pm »
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I think the main reason SM-steward may be better is that while the $5s are worth getting, you don't need to rush them right from the start. If there was a key $5 which you wanted lots of, potion would probably be better. Here you have more time so can afford to get potion on the second shuffle

That's what I was thinking. the $5s are great and all, but they'll only work against you in the long run against a deck prepared to play Possession often. With a thin deck, you'll see your gains quickly, which of course let's you get more quality gains sooner.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: opening buys? - my intuition was off
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2014, 12:26:44 pm »
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I think you're probably right on the spice merchant. In the AI test games his card play prioritized trashing over the university, however the opening of steward/potion prioritized the university over trashing.

Yeah if you open Potion, you definitely want to draw on collision. You cycle 2 cards faster this shuffle, 3 cards slower next shuffle since you didn't trash, and catch back up the following shuffle with the Lab you gained from the University, but with an extra University in the deck. It might be the case that Spice Merchant is better, but surely buying Potion and not using it is wrong.
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