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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 170777 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #775 on: October 07, 2014, 12:25:23 pm »

I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.
I honestly thought he was kidding.

And I didn't realize you were voting for WW, apologies. Can you list your reasons again? I might join.

Yeah, maybe it was kidding... I'm not sure.

Anyway, Witherweaver: I found his whole interaction with Ichi on Day 1 very scummy (well, I happen to think that Ichi is town also). First hedgy, then trying to make him reveal his PR. Also multiple instances of SK hunting (there was something on D1 already). Now WW likes to say that scum would do this because they know it's seen as scummy... but it is scummy because town has no reason to do it! Town should approach this day with a mindset of "there is probably no SK, so let's hunt mafia". Not doing that is anti-town and scummy. And while other players were suspected for the exact same things WW is doing, he never got much suspicion. Plus, my gut says WW's posts are disingenuous, but it's hard to put that in a proper argument.

Silverspawn made a post that indicated he was an SK.  I had the option to let it go and come back to it later if we got to that point, at which point I can't guarantee I'd remember it, or bring it up now so that I'd make sure to remember it.  I chose the latter. 

PPE: Okay, but my point is he's a new player. 
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #776 on: October 07, 2014, 12:27:07 pm »

I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.

I disagree. What exactly is the simplest explanation for last night's one kill being a VT who would have looked very towny coming into today? There is no simple explanation. But this complex one fits all the facts of yesterday perfectly.
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #777 on: October 07, 2014, 12:29:19 pm »

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.

The reason I respond to this is because I think it makes you scummy.

Firstly I have zero reason to fake a non-SK slip. I'm not a big suspect, and even if people believe me that I'm not an SK, I can still be mafia. what? Why should I see the need to do something like that. There is zero WIFOM.

Secondly, I showed you the post that was - and still is (!) - confusing me. I'll show you again. Here:

They can choose to use PRs instead of kill.

I thought I knew how the SK works. This post is the only problem. You said they can't use PR's if they kill. But strongman is a PR that doesn't make sense if you don't use it while you're attempting a kill. So, you were doing the post that confused me, and then you were voting for me based on the fact that your post was confusing.

This really makes me want to vote for you, because I just can't believe a town player would be serious with this case. But I also really want to do IG. The thing is that the IG case has all sorts of history with day1 and reason based on wagons, and there is the joth case, where as your case is more or less out of nowhere, I didn't find you scummy day1. Right now, I feel like voting for you could be a trap. Even though you're really trying hard to look scummy.

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #778 on: October 07, 2014, 12:29:31 pm »

I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #779 on: October 07, 2014, 12:31:04 pm »

Man, two posts earlier I posted the relevant setup quote:

Oh hey reading setups is cool:


Quote
Serial Killer: (if applicable, present 3/8 of the time)
- 2-shot JOAT, which includes a passive 1-shot Bulletproof, 1-shot Strongman, 1-shot Investigation Immune. If the Bulletproof is used up one JOAT attributes will be lost. If both the Strongman or Investigation Immune is used at night the Bulletproof will be lost as well.
- The SK may choose to give up NK and instead perform any one of the 8 town roles listed above during the night. Each role may only be used once by the Sk during the game.

In regards to the discussion before about a single kill implying no SK... SK has possible motivation to not shoot here.

I thought it would be pretty contextually clear what I meant.
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #780 on: October 07, 2014, 12:35:45 pm »

that's just a quote from the setup. I vaguely recall that it was confusing the first time I read it too.

so, does it mean the town roles are from the list of PR's that are possible to be included for town, and is not related to the JOAT? if so, all you had to do is write that, instead of starting this insane faking no SK case.

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #781 on: October 07, 2014, 12:38:58 pm »

that's just a quote from the setup. I vaguely recall that it was confusing the first time I read it too.

so, does it mean the town roles are from the list of PR's that are possible to be included for town, and is not related to the JOAT? if so, all you had to do is write that, instead of starting this insane faking no SK case.

Calling it "insane" is making you look much, much worse.  And I did say it:

wait, I don't get the SK. He can only use PR's when he doesn't try to kill? but, one of his PR is strongman. how is that useful if he doesn't try to kill anyone? How does the passive work? is he only bulletproof if he doesn't try to kill?

Vote: Silverspawn

But in case it wasn't disingenuous, it's the possible Town PRs he can use.


Strongman is part of his JOAT.  He can use it as a kill modifier if he kills.


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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #782 on: October 07, 2014, 12:39:21 pm »

I just had a thought! What if Ichi's the traitor? Eevee was defending him and he didn't even know it! And the SK killed ADK -- mafia recruited Ichi!

Occam's razor, man. This theory is no good.

I disagree. What exactly is the simplest explanation for last night's one kill being a VT who would have looked very towny coming into today? There is no simple explanation. But this complex one fits all the facts of yesterday perfectly.
Well, first of all scum doesn't know who the VT's are. I'm sure they'd change their kill now if they could. But, here are a couple of alternatives of the top of my head:

Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #783 on: October 07, 2014, 12:45:11 pm »

Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #784 on: October 07, 2014, 12:47:19 pm »

If I'm scum with IG, why did we kill ADK?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #785 on: October 07, 2014, 12:47:32 pm »

I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

You understand me wrong. I do not mean to imply you're the SK, but maybe you are mafia and you didn't choose to kill ADK?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #786 on: October 07, 2014, 12:49:03 pm »

Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.

Suppose you are scum. Who would have been your nightkill?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #787 on: October 07, 2014, 12:51:45 pm »

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Yeah, it would obviously never occur to me that someone would think that, because it's not like everyone points it out every single game of Mafia that's ever been in existence and always tries to paint someone as scummy as doing this or anything.

Silver's post read like obvious SK trying to look like he doesn't know how the SK works.  It's worth pointing out.

The reason I respond to this is because I think it makes you scummy.

Firstly I have zero reason to fake a non-SK slip. I'm not a big suspect, and even if people believe me that I'm not an SK, I can still be mafia. what? Why should I see the need to do something like that. There is zero WIFOM.

Secondly, I showed you the post that was - and still is (!) - confusing me. I'll show you again. Here:

They can choose to use PRs instead of kill.

I thought I knew how the SK works. This post is the only problem. You said they can't use PR's if they kill. But strongman is a PR that doesn't make sense if you don't use it while you're attempting a kill. So, you were doing the post that confused me, and then you were voting for me based on the fact that your post was confusing.

This really makes me want to vote for you, because I just can't believe a town player would be serious with this case. But I also really want to do IG. The thing is that the IG case has all sorts of history with day1 and reason based on wagons, and there is the joth case, where as your case is more or less out of nowhere, I didn't find you scummy day1. Right now, I feel like voting for you could be a trap. Even though you're really trying hard to look scummy.

This post really feels townie for me.

You shouldn't stick to your D1 reads too much though (yes, I know, this coming from me...)
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #788 on: October 07, 2014, 12:52:42 pm »

And I disagree those all are bad. ADK wasn't thought of as scummy (before his hammer, and I don't think the hammer was super scummy ultimately.. you were a big proponent of just going with it and lynching someone, so I'm not sure why you think so either). There was no obvious kill, no one claimed a pr (remarkable!) and no one was anyone's universal town read.

I can't come up with a super strong reason to kill anyone, and they had to go with someone and picked ADK. Maybe they had some reason, but it wasn't necessarily super strong or something we could deduct now.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #789 on: October 07, 2014, 12:52:47 pm »

Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.

Suppose you are scum. Who would have been your nightkill?

Oh, err, of course disregard any PR reads you might have on people.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #790 on: October 07, 2014, 12:56:13 pm »

I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

You understand me wrong. I do not mean to imply you're the SK, but maybe you are mafia and you didn't choose to kill ADK?

Oh, I didn't think of that.  That would be interesting.. there are possibilities: Jailkeeper, commuting, bulletproof, or Traitor Roleblocking.  Can't be SK because he shot.  Well, I know that I am not Mafia, but this theory is still possible for the real Mafia team.

Interestingly enough, it does explain the ADK kill.  He was the first one to start the "Silver is SK" thing.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #791 on: October 07, 2014, 01:07:24 pm »

I guess also.. if I was Mafia, I would probably just bring up Silver's SK thing in my QT later instead of point it out here.

Though I guess I could be SK, but then Faust would be SK hunting, so he should vote for himself.  Of course, he kind of already implied this:

WW hunting a SK that (quite likely) might not even be in this game is super scummy. Or maybe he knows that there's a SK?

Why is it okay for you to "SK hunt", but when anyone else thinks about SK's it's scummy?

You understand me wrong. I do not mean to imply you're the SK, but maybe you are mafia and you didn't choose to kill ADK?

Oh, I didn't think of that.  That would be interesting.. there are possibilities: Jailkeeper, commuting, bulletproof, or Traitor Roleblocking.  Can't be SK because he shot.  Well, I know that I am not Mafia, but this theory is still possible for the real Mafia team.

Interestingly enough, it does explain the ADK kill.  He was the first one to start the "Silver is SK" thing.

Well, I have to say that this post looks rather townie. Maybe I'm just terrible at reading you.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #792 on: October 07, 2014, 01:07:42 pm »

Scum thought he was a pr.  IG is scum and wanted to silence someone who suspected him. Scum wanted to frame IG. Scum thought town would think "that hammer was so scummy it's actually towny". Scum wanted to confuse us. Scum didn't think about it much.

Those are all bad. There was no evidence that he was a PR. IG had better targets who suspected him more and pushed his lynch harder. Scummy towny hammers are not really a thing.

But it doesn't matter. My traitor theory is incidental to my case on IG and Eevee.

Suppose you are scum. Who would have been your nightkill?

I can't answer this without sharing who I think hinted at having a PR day 1, which would be a bad thing to put out in the open. Suffice it to say, not ADK.
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #793 on: October 07, 2014, 01:13:36 pm »

I have too many town reads this game... I tried figuring out who I wanted lynched if not WW (I'm less sure about him now, it's still decent, but maybe there are other options). And really all people who are active seem townie. There may be scum in Hydrad/Jimmmmm/ashersky, who are all very much absent, but there's not really a case for them. I could do Hydrad I guess.

And joth I don't get a read on at all. He seems very involved and doing stuff, but somehow it doesn't help me in figuring out his alignment.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #794 on: October 07, 2014, 01:16:51 pm »

Why is it you think Ichi is town?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #795 on: October 07, 2014, 01:29:20 pm »

Why is it you think Ichi is town?

I don't think his reaction to silverspawn's claim was something scum would do.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #796 on: October 07, 2014, 01:50:37 pm »

Finished my light reread of ADK.
Things that stood out to me were his early voting me because he though my reactions to the silverspawn case was scummy because I didn't vote for him.

Oh wait, I get it. Silverspawn is the SK, and he wants to avoid being targeted by mafia.
This, in particular is noteworthy.

All in All he seemed to find me scummy almost the whole day--and was pretty relentless in pushing my lynch multiple times. He was also quite suspicious of silverspawn and didn't like the lack of explanation surrounding his claim. He also defended WW quite a bit from various (I think legitimate) accusations. Then at the end he Hammers XP without having said much about him at all. Just that the wagon was "intriguing".
So I'm not sure. I still think ADK was a pretty odd nightkill choice--and he doesn't really come off as all that townie to me if we didn't have his flip.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #797 on: October 07, 2014, 02:17:41 pm »

While ADK was not the kill I expected, I don't think there is anyone particularly obvious to kill this time, which makes the ADK kill less weird.
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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #798 on: October 07, 2014, 02:33:42 pm »

So, I think the most plausible scenario for day1 is, Ichi and Hydrad are scum, they saw people pushing the Ichi case, so they shifted it towards XP instead. We should lynch Ichi today, if he flips scum, we should probably follow up with Hydrad. Other people to consider are joth, WW, and the lurkers, ash and Jimmm.

Basically, the only point where I disagree with joth is the case on Eevee. Let's not forget that he and IG were on the XP wagon pretty early. IG is the suspect, so that's no excuse for him, but it kind of is for Eevee. Plus, I just really don't get a scum feel from him.

necro:
Quote
IG -> Eevee -------> Hydrad -> silverspawn -> joth -> ADK

The biggest fear I have is that joth is scum. But i'm willing to risk that.

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #799 on: October 07, 2014, 02:38:10 pm »

or, we could do Hydrad first. That's probably even better. but one of those two.
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