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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 170799 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #700 on: October 06, 2014, 04:57:39 pm »

So, here's my most likely interpretation of events: Eevee and IG are on the scum team. They began, and pushed along, the XP wagon because the town was stalling repeatedly and IG looked like the default lynch. Does scum normally want to be driving the wagon? No. Will they do it if the alternative is losing a team member day 1? Absolutely.
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Hydrad

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #701 on: October 06, 2014, 04:58:34 pm »

wait did I completely miss faust posting reply 556? I didn't remember him posting reads at all. I'm going to reread faust right now because I'm confused.

Thanks joth for posting that though
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #702 on: October 06, 2014, 04:58:54 pm »

I do find WW a little scummy, but the preponderance of evidence here is IG and Eevee, to my eye. so vote: IG
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #703 on: October 06, 2014, 04:59:39 pm »

ADK emerges as an extremely weird kill choice here as his hammer of XP was SO SCUMMY he would have been a very easy mislynch candidate.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #704 on: October 06, 2014, 05:05:58 pm »

Claiming I won't oppose a lynch is not the same as supporting it.  I guess you can argue they kind of are, but I was saying there that I didn't see myself making some big argument that XP is town.  In most games I've played with XP I've argued for his towniness, and I didn't have a big feeling towards it here, probably because he was fairly absent. 

Well, in retrospect, I should have argued the lynch,  but I didn't have enough confidence.  (Though you'll note I was trying to argue towards other targets late in the day.)
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #705 on: October 06, 2014, 05:07:02 pm »

ADK emerges as an extremely weird kill choice here as his hammer of XP was SO SCUMMY he would have been a very easy mislynch candidate.

Yes, and that reminds me:

Eevee, since you're the proponent of "If you're left alive start questioning your reads," what do you think about the ADK kill?  Do you think it was reads-based?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #706 on: October 06, 2014, 05:07:17 pm »

Bolding fail.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #707 on: October 06, 2014, 05:07:26 pm »

WW, you actually do come out of my reread looking pretty towny. I got excited about the part I put in bold, but big picture-wise, you sure don't come off looking like the mastermind behind the lynch.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #708 on: October 06, 2014, 05:07:49 pm »

To be fair to Jimmm, it is known he is legitimately busy right now.
Ok thanks. That does make a difference in my read on him. Do you know if he was similarly busy for most of D1?
Yeah. It's my understanding it's been a busy fall for him.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #709 on: October 06, 2014, 05:08:22 pm »

I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #710 on: October 06, 2014, 05:08:39 pm »

The Jimmmmm votes aren't helping much. This might be the last day we have before MyLo. People should come up with better arguments than LAL.

That said, it would be nice to hear a bit more from Jimmmmmm.
Surely the Jimmm votes are better than your novote.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #711 on: October 06, 2014, 05:10:28 pm »

I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #712 on: October 06, 2014, 05:11:39 pm »

I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.

Doesn't that seem a bit circular?

Or are you saying Eevee was the pusher?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #713 on: October 06, 2014, 05:12:50 pm »

I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.
When I started pushing XP, he was super-lurking and slipping onto any growing wagon with sheepish reasons. I disagree he wasn't scummy.

Now, the VT claim would have given me pause, but ADK made a judgement call and was wrong, so that's that.
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #714 on: October 06, 2014, 05:14:14 pm »

ADK emerges as an extremely weird kill choice here as his hammer of XP was SO SCUMMY he would have been a very easy mislynch candidate.

Yes, and that reminds me:

Eevee, since you're the proponent of "If you're left alive start questioning your reads," what do you think about the ADK kill?  Do you think it was reads-based?
Well, I reread ADK, and he didn't have any strong reads. He suspected IG, along with half the town. So, as far as I can tell he wasn't killed because his reads were spot on.. unless IG is scum and they wanted to hit someone behind that case, of course. Everything does seem to point eerily at IG.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #715 on: October 06, 2014, 05:16:45 pm »

I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.

Doesn't that seem a bit circular?

Or are you saying Eevee was the pusher?
Exactly. "Scum doesn't push a D1 wagon unless they're in danger?".
Well what does town do D1 when they're super close to being mislynched for the umpteenth time that day? You've obviously already eliminated any possibility that I'm town and skewed your reasoning to only support a case that I am scum.

Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #716 on: October 06, 2014, 05:18:14 pm »

In joth's defense, I think I was the pusher more than you were, urging people to reread XP etc. I do accept responsibility on that.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #717 on: October 06, 2014, 05:22:41 pm »

Okay, then for clarity on Joth's argument:

"I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum"

Would imply that he sees Eevee as scum (for independent reasons), and Eevee is pushing a wagon on town, so the alternative wagon must be on scum.  Ergo, Ichi is scum as well.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #718 on: October 06, 2014, 05:23:04 pm »

And so if the implication is Eevee scum => Ichi scum, why not vote for Eevee instead of Ichi?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #719 on: October 06, 2014, 05:24:52 pm »

Joth, why are you dismissing me being town who liked lynching XP better than lynching IG?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #720 on: October 06, 2014, 05:26:27 pm »

I don't buy a lurker lynch here. I think the scum is active, and was involved in yesterday's lynch.
This is because you think IG is scum?

Other way around. XP wasn't being particularly scummy. His lynch only took off because nothing else was going on and other lynches, better lynches, repeatedly failed to connect. I look at the wagon, and I see a wagon being pushed by scum. Scum doesn't push a wagon day 1 unless they're in danger. Therefore, IG is scum.

You know, that and all the same reasons I found him scummy yesterday.

Doesn't that seem a bit circular?

Or are you saying Eevee was the pusher?

I'm being unclear. Regardless of amy reads on anyone, it seems obvious to me that XP's lynch was not based on some rock solid case. It wasn't even based on a good-enough-for-day-1 case. It was based on a fairly lame case that everyone eventually jumped on because deadline was coming up and we've got to lynch someone. And if my excerpts don't sell you on that, reread it yourself. Yesterday was a terrible day 1 that kept stalling. No one was confident enough in a case to really push for it and make it happen.

That's (normally) great for scum! They can sit around and wait for a panic mislynch or even a no lynch. They might get antsy, but there's no call to step in and draw attention to themselves.

So how did XP manage to get lynched? That's the question we have to ask ourselves. The narrative that makes sense to me is one where IG was scum. He managed to escape his own lynch twice somehow. But he and his teammate knew that if they sat around and did nothing, the town would probably default to IG at deadline. They picked out someone who was a lurker, built a trumped up case, and pushed it through. And lazy townies with no strong reads (yes I'm including myself in this category) went along with it.

Like I said, that's the narrative that makes sense to me. It paints IG and Eevee as the likely scum. If you have another version of what happened, I would love to hear it.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #721 on: October 06, 2014, 05:28:40 pm »

And so if the implication is Eevee scum => Ichi scum, why not vote for Eevee instead of Ichi?

I don't follow you. But my narrative works with Ichi + someone else as the scum team. It falls apart if Ichi is town. So Ichi is the more solid vote. Plus his flip is extremely informational, given his 2 L1 wagons yesterday.

Joth, why are you dismissing me being town who liked lynching XP better than lynching IG?

Because you pushed the lynch. Not very hard, but harder than anyone else. Also, why do you think IG is town?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day1 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #722 on: October 06, 2014, 05:29:45 pm »

Here's an Eevee quote I omitted for brevity's sake where he's frantically pushing the XP case.

We really appreciate you stepping in here mail-mi and continuing this game, so thank you. PM sent.


I don't know if there's much that I can do to avert my lynch today. I think there are cases much better than mine--with evidence other than my known defensiveness. I like where my vote is now, and I implore all of you to reread XP and think hard about the implications of my lynch growing so quickly with a continued number of poorly explained votes (not implying this for all votes on me, just some).

That's all for now.

Instead, let's think hard about the implications of the fact that, despite you having been the number one suspect all day, it seems damn near impossible to actually push your lynch through. Who does that happen to, scum or town?
This feels dishonest. He was damn near lynched twice already, and the first time happened in a super rapid fashion.

The deadline, it's pretty close. Time to have your vote where it matters, people!
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #723 on: October 06, 2014, 05:30:05 pm »

you'll not it also includes a defense of IG.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #724 on: October 06, 2014, 05:31:37 pm »

Anyway, now I have to go play Magic. Either you like my case or you don't. I intentionally posted my recap of the wagon and my interpretation of it separately, so if you don't like my answer, please take advantage of the work I did and come to your own conclusions from my summary.
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