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Author Topic: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Serial Killer (ashersky) wins!  (Read 170840 times)

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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #650 on: October 06, 2014, 09:31:34 am »

Quote
Question for everyone. What percent sure are we that there's no serial killer at this point? (I am asking for a reason.)

I think this question is dangerous. If people answer it honestly, they might semi claim JK or something. I'm not familiar with this role, but it seems to be that it is pretty strong for preventing kills, as both targeting the killer and the victim will do the job.

I already claimed VT, so I can answer at least. I'd say between 80 and 90%

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #651 on: October 06, 2014, 09:33:32 am »

I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.

Traitor has Roleblock, too.  So I think in every case some kind of blocking is possible.  (It's either SK or Recruited Traitor, right?)
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #652 on: October 06, 2014, 09:38:52 am »

Quote
Question for everyone. What percent sure are we that there's no serial killer at this point? (I am asking for a reason.)

I think this question is dangerous. If people answer it honestly, they might semi claim JK or something. I'm not familiar with this role, but it seems to be that it is pretty strong for preventing kills, as both targeting the killer and the victim will do the job.

I already claimed VT, so I can answer at least. I'd say between 80 and 90%

Ok, restate. NOT TAKING YOUR OWN ROLE INTO ACCOUNT, how sure are you?
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #653 on: October 06, 2014, 09:45:12 am »

purely mathematically speaking, if there is a SK, he can be one of 9 players. if there is a JK, he has 8 possible targets, 4 of them would prevent a kill. wow, that's 50%.

so, the possibilities are:

no SK = 5/8
SK and no JK = 1/8
SK and JK 2/8
 -> and JK prevented the kill 1/8
-> and JK didn't prevent the kill 1/8

that's assuminr random choices from everyone, and ignoring the possibilities of a no-kill or a double-target.

and we get 1/8 chance

jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #654 on: October 06, 2014, 10:02:17 am »

hmmmm ok nevermind, I know what I need to know thanks silver
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #655 on: October 06, 2014, 10:27:38 am »

hmmmm ok nevermind, I know what I need to know thanks silver

Want to share?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #656 on: October 06, 2014, 10:34:49 am »

hmmmm ok nevermind, I know what I need to know thanks silver

Want to share?

I do! But it's not the right thing for town if I do. When I have some time (i.e. when I'm not at work) I'm going to re-read day 1 and see if anything jumps out.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #657 on: October 06, 2014, 10:41:52 am »

Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #658 on: October 06, 2014, 10:42:53 am »

Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #659 on: October 06, 2014, 10:45:13 am »

Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?

Got sick of winning, trying the losing thing on for size.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #660 on: October 06, 2014, 10:45:54 am »

Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?

Got sick of winning, trying the losing thing on for size.

You're trying too hard. Just tell us that you're scum and who your partners are, and we'll make sure you lose.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #661 on: October 06, 2014, 10:48:46 am »

Well, you're not obligated to be awesome town until Day 3, and it's only Day 2, so you can still make choices that aren't the best for town.

why do you encourage him to do decisions that are bad for town?

Got sick of winning, trying the losing thing on for size.

You're trying too hard. Just tell us that you're scum and who your partners are, and we'll make sure you lose.

Me, Ichi, Silverspawn.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #662 on: October 06, 2014, 10:56:21 am »

Cool. vote: Witherweaver
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #663 on: October 06, 2014, 11:00:25 am »

Cool. vote: Witherweaver

Nooooo vote my partners first
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #664 on: October 06, 2014, 11:04:30 am »

Cool. vote: Witherweaver

Nooooo vote my partners first

nah you're the one who keeps trying to out PRs. Plus Ichi's like impossible to lynch.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #665 on: October 06, 2014, 11:07:25 am »

Cool. vote: Witherweaver

Nooooo vote my partners first

nah you're the one who keeps trying to out PRs. Plus Ichi's like impossible to lynch.

"keeps trying to"

If you think we're at risk of Ichi of being a PR, why do you still want to lynch him?
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silverspawn

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #666 on: October 06, 2014, 11:08:41 am »

I'm not scum.

faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #667 on: October 06, 2014, 11:45:42 am »

Vote: Witherweaver

That all reads fake to me.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #668 on: October 06, 2014, 11:46:46 am »

Fake how? 
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #669 on: October 06, 2014, 11:48:10 am »

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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #670 on: October 06, 2014, 11:50:08 am »

And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #671 on: October 06, 2014, 11:57:33 am »

And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?
[/quote

What exactly is the purpose of this question?
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faust

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #672 on: October 06, 2014, 11:58:29 am »

And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?

Again, correctly: What exactly is the purpose of this question?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #673 on: October 06, 2014, 12:05:52 pm »

And you honestly believe this is significantly different than how I otherwise behave?

Again, correctly: What exactly is the purpose of this question?

What exactly is the purpose of this question?
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Eevee

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Re: Mafia 51: Silo (Wool) Mafia - Day 2 Start - PM for speccy
« Reply #674 on: October 06, 2014, 12:23:27 pm »

I thought WW was pretty funny.
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