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[mail-mi]

Twilight for now, flip when I get home.

[silverspawn]

make sure he flips scum.

[mail-mi]

Sorry, no flavor. I haven't read the books so

Vote Count 1.FINAL

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (4): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK
 
Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it took 6 to lynch.

XerxesPraelor has been lynched! He was Mayor Jahns, a Vanilla Townie!

Night 1 ends at 7:30 PM forum time on Sunday, October 5. Please have night actions in at least a half hour before that. All players who don't have a power must still send a check-in PM.

[mail-mi]

A Drowned Kernel has died! He was Allison Holston, a Vanilla Townie!

Day 2 start!
Thread unlocked!

Vote Count 2.0

Not Voting (9): Jimmmmm, faust, Witherweaver, ashersky, Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah

With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch. Day 2 ends on Wednesday, October 15, 7:30 PM FT.

[Eevee]

First!

[Eevee]

Good night for us.

[Hydrad]

I'm here!

[Jimmmmm]

And we're back.

[ashersky]

Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)

[Ichimaru Gin]

Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)

Yep. I've seen it. 

Good night for us.

Is this because we only lost a VT?

[Eevee]

Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)

Yep. I've seen it. 

Good night for us.

Is this because we only lost a VT?

Well, yeah, I'm not especially happy it was ADK. Although it is an interesting kill, I remember being firmly null on him and I think some other people suspected him quite a bit. Not a kill you'd expect?

It was also good that there was only one kill. Lessens the likelihood of a serial killer quite significantly.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Still alive!

(Anyone watch The Croods?)

Yep. I've seen it. 

Good night for us.

Is this because we only lost a VT?

Well, yeah, I'm not especially happy it was ADK. Although it is an interesting kill, I remember being firmly null on him and I think some other people suspected him quite a bit. Not a kill you'd expect?

It was also good that there was only one kill. Lessens the likelihood of a serial killer quite significantly.

Mm. Definitely expected scum to leave me alive since so many people suspect me. I don't have almost any strong town reads so far, so don't have much of a guess on who scum would nightkill. So maybe they didn't like ADK's reads, or they thought he looked townier than others, or PR hunting is possible (though I don't really recall anything to support it). It'd definitely be a good idea to reread him.

[ashersky]

On wagon NK could mean more scum off.

[Eevee]

I reread ADK to see. The closest thing to a reads list from him:

 

I feel like some players are flying under the radar here, not in terms of how much they're posting but in terms of scrutiny they've been under. I'm kind of one of them, but I'd also point out faust, jim, ash. I don't want to lynch ash day one on principle but I think that the focus here has been on a few players and that's not good for town.

So I guess, out of those players:

ash seems like his regular self, and he's VLA so I don't expect too high activity from him.
faust is difficult for me to read, but I think he's doing a very good job of blending in, so a few scum points for him.
jim's another VLA but seems like he might be lurking beyond that.
Hydrad wasn't on my original list but he also I think has avoided some scrutiny.

I still like my Ichi vote, for how he acted before, during and after his fake lynch, but I guess I'd toss those points out there for consideration.

Other than that, his vote sitting on IG almost all day, until at the very end he started preferring the XP case, first asking him to claim and then hammering him almost immediately following the claim.


I don't find anything in his reads implicates anyone, other than IG but many people suspected him, so naturally that's bound to happen often. I also didn't spot a pr-slip, but it's not like I would.

[silverspawn]

with 2 VT flips, we still know nothing very little about the setup. Well, maybe we can assume no SK, but even that's not certain.

1. Detective, 1-shot Commuter, Goon Cop; 1-shot Investigation Immune + Serial Killer
2. Watcher, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; 2-shot JOAT
3. 1-shot BP Townie, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard; Traitor Knows Mafia
4. 1-shot BP Commuter, Psychologist, Detective; Mafia Knows Traitor
5. Watcher, 1-shot BP Townie, 1-shot BP Commuter; 2-shot JOAT
6. Detective, Jailkeeper, Psychologist; Mafia Knows Traitor + Serial Killer
7. 1-shot Commuter, Jailkeeper, Detective; Traitor Knows Mafia + Serial Killer
8. Goon Cop, Psychologist, Bodyguard; 1-shot Investigation Immune

Not much to go on.

[silverspawn]

As far as this goes

Ichimaru (1): Jimmmmm,
Witherweaver (1): faust,
Eevee (3): Witherweaver, ashersky, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (6): Ichimaru Gin, Eevee, Hydrad, silverspawn, jotheonah, ADK

I'm not very experienced in wagon analysis, but it seems to be that the wagon was moving pretty fast near the end. IG has only one vote, even though he was the main target for pretty long. This could mean scum!IG and his buddies were pushing the lynch to XP instead.

I'll have to reread when exactly each one of them joined the wagon.

[silverspawn]

So the order was IG -> Eevee -------> Hydrad -> silverspawn -> joth -> ADK (as you can see in the vote's post, the -'s are an indicator for the space in between)

I'm Town. ADK is Town. That leaves joth and Hydrad. I'm not sure about joth, also because switching wagons here is going to make him look really bad if IG flips scum. He switched really late. scum!joth has been quite careful about these kinds of things in James Bond Mafia from what I can tell.

So, Hydrad. Hydrad has switched wagons with this quote:

Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP

I'll also say that I have done a complete reread on Hydrad Zelda mafia. A bunch of things stood out, the average length of his posts was very low, he wrote a big panic defense for a null case early, and overall he's had very little content. A few other things too. Expecting him to flip scum there, I was ready for a big townread here, because he's played quite differently. More long posts (still not many though). Less blending in. More content. In a vacuum, his play here looks townier to me, but it's suspicious that it's so different. And with him flipping town in Zelda, that makes him look scummy here. Of course, he's also relatively new, so it could just be a normal change of his game without a change of his alignment.

Still, I'm leaning on either Hydrad or IG for now. With the suspicion IG got, he can just use self-preservation as an excuse. He did vote for XP when he was at L-1.

[silverspawn]

*in Zelda Mafia.

[faust]

If a mod - I mean, a real mod (sorry, mail-mi) could take care of the name of this thread, I would be grateful.

Also, the wagon, hm. I think lots of people on it are on the townier side (Eevee, Ichi, silver). So that means that either scum avoided the wagon (possible, but not likely), there's scum among joth/Hydrad, or my reads are very off. The ADK kill makes it slightly less likely that the wagon was full of scum, but you know, WIFOM.

[faust]

So the order was IG -> Eevee -------> Hydrad -> silverspawn -> joth -> ADK (as you can see in the vote's post, the -'s are an indicator for the space in between)

I'm Town. ADK is Town. That leaves joth and Hydrad. I'm not sure about joth, also because switching wagons here is going to make him look really bad if IG flips scum. He switched really late. scum!joth has been quite careful about these kinds of things in James Bond Mafia from what I can tell.

So, Hydrad. Hydrad has switched wagons with this quote:

Rereading XP I am finding him scummier. I don't like all of his vote swapping. I would much rather a XP lynch then a IG one.

Vote: XP

I'll also say that I have done a complete reread on Hydrad Zelda mafia. A bunch of things stood out, the average length of his posts was very low, he wrote a big panic defense for a null case early, and overall he's had very little content. A few other things too. Expecting him to flip scum there, I was ready for a big townread here, because he's played quite differently. More long posts (still not many though). Less blending in. More content. In a vacuum, his play here looks townier to me, but it's suspicious that it's so different. And with him flipping town in Zelda, that makes him look scummy here. Of course, he's also relatively new, so it could just be a normal change of his game without a change of his alignment.

Still, I'm leaning on either Hydrad or IG for now. With the suspicion IG got, he can just use self-preservation as an excuse. He did vote for XP when he was at L-1.

I don't think you should exclude IG and Eevee from your analysis just because they voted earlier. They didn't move their votes and thus helped lynching Xerxes just as much as the rest on wagon.

What you're saying about Hydrad is also very interesting; I don't find him much different from the last game I played with him (Dice mafia; he was town there). I don't really see the "long" posts, and did have the impression that he was blending in.

[faust]

Mm. Definitely expected scum to leave me alive since so many people suspect me. I don't have almost any strong town reads so far, so don't have much of a guess on who scum would nightkill. So maybe they didn't like ADK's reads, or they thought he looked townier than others, or PR hunting is possible (though I don't really recall anything to support it). It'd definitely be a good idea to reread him.

Well, you don't need to be surprised that many people suspect you if you're behaving like this; making up excuses for not being nightkilled is a big scum tell for me.

[ashersky]

Fixed.

[ashersky]

Mm. Definitely expected scum to leave me alive since so many people suspect me. I don't have almost any strong town reads so far, so don't have much of a guess on who scum would nightkill. So maybe they didn't like ADK's reads, or they thought he looked townier than others, or PR hunting is possible (though I don't really recall anything to support it). It'd definitely be a good idea to reread him.

Well, you don't need to be surprised that many people suspect you if you're behaving like this; making up excuses for not being nightkilled is a big scum tell for me.

I agree with the making up excuses for surviving thing.

[jotheonah]

I know that town's dying reads aren't really likely to be more accurate than anyone else's, but I think we should do XP the honor of really scrutinizing faust.

I STILL think IG is probably scum.

Question for everyone. What percent sure are we that there's no serial killer at this point? (I am asking for a reason.)

[jotheonah]

I mean, 2 SK slots also have a jailkeeper, so that's another explanation for the missed kill. ADK being double-targeted seems extremely unlikely.