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Author Topic: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia - Town Wins!  (Read 226160 times)

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Teproc

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1050 on: September 17, 2014, 10:57:41 am »

and second: look at his two pre-game posts
/in!

/out  :(

:(

this looks to me like he was already excited pre game. so, isn't it reasonable to assume that it was just because it's a cool game and all that, and not because he was scum?

Do you live in an alternate universe where PMs were sent out before the game filled?

His point is that Hydrad was excited before the game, therefore his being excited is not a scumtell.

I disagree with the premise that new scum is excited but someone said that so that's what he's reponding to. In my experience, new scum is terrified of doing the wrong thing.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1051 on: September 17, 2014, 10:58:29 am »

Teproc is the Senseroc
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EgorK

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1052 on: September 17, 2014, 11:01:44 am »

Ok, let's start with some theory on how I do scumhunting day 1. Fact is, and I already quoted that in some previous game, statistics shows that day 1 lynch is pretty random, i. e. expected value of hitting scum is about expected value of player being scum. Also I think that we can't say "this player is def town"/"this player is def scum" about really good players like ash or Robz. Because if we can say that and be right then we can also find opposite in games where they are scum, and hence, they would not be really good players. So I prefer to have some notes on such players but do not consider them for lynch pool/def town pool unless they do something really off (and I suspect ash cannot surprise me by now)

Next, I would assume there are about 3.1 scum in setup, so average player is about 26% scummy and 74% towny for me (as I know I am town)

So, flavor. It was mentioned in setup that flavor and aligment are independent. It really makes no sense for any of currently revealed characters to ally themselves with Grejoy. Jon Snow allying himself with apparent killers of his apparent brothers? Melisandre (that's me), servant of R'Hllor, which allies herself with servant of Drowned God (fire vs water, yes) abandoning apparent reincarnation of Azor Ahai? Barristan Selmy, who participated in Pyke battle and who's main concern always was realm? Briene of Thart, who tries to prove that woman can be knight, would abandon her honor? So yes, flavor names are obviosuly irrelevant to alignment, so fact that someone claims your alignment should not bother you would you be scum or town. So reacting in non-nervous way here is what one would do. Still I would give some town points because WW as scum may panic for no apparent reason, so I'd go with about 17% scum/83% town for him

Reads on others later

PPE: 5
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azadin

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1053 on: September 17, 2014, 11:03:40 am »

Yes, I think I see where Teproc and silverspawn are coming from. I went back and re-re-read the things I was having trouble with before, and I'm coming to the same consensus.

I'm not 100% convinced he's not scum, but now I think there are some better D1 lynches.

In fact,

But more importantly, after this, azadin also makes a case:

My earlier suspicion of Hydrad has only gotten stronger the longer I've thought about it, and pacovf outlined some of the specific posts that were sticking out in my mind (especially that self aware joke...but I'm not going to get into a recursive meta discussion right now).

Vote: Hydrad

and then XP jumps on the wagon without any reason:

Wait, do we know if the empowerment is permanent? If the empowerment condition stops being true, is the power still empowered?

Also, vote: hydrad

if hydrad is town and XP is scum, this is probably a good way to do this. if hydrad is scum and XP is town... well, he could still do it

but the bottom line so far is really that I don't find any arguments against hydrad convincing.

I think this alone is reason enough that I am not going to Vote: XerxesPraelor. He just kinda jumped in nonchalantly on the wagon paco and I were forming. I already had a scummy read on him, so yeah.

PPE: 1
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1054 on: September 17, 2014, 11:04:36 am »

Teproc is the Senseroc

It's like WW is buddying me through Teproc now...
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Teproc

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1055 on: September 17, 2014, 11:07:42 am »

Teproc is the Senseroc

It's like WW is buddying me through Teproc now...

Town!WW plays pretty similarly to us. I remember thinking he was the new Voltaire in his newbie game. Then he rolled scum 8 times in a row.

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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1056 on: September 17, 2014, 11:07:50 am »

Yes, I think I see where Teproc and silverspawn are coming from. I went back and re-re-read the things I was having trouble with before, and I'm coming to the same consensus.

I'm not 100% convinced he's not scum, but now I think there are some better D1 lynches.

In fact,

But more importantly, after this, azadin also makes a case:

My earlier suspicion of Hydrad has only gotten stronger the longer I've thought about it, and pacovf outlined some of the specific posts that were sticking out in my mind (especially that self aware joke...but I'm not going to get into a recursive meta discussion right now).

Vote: Hydrad

and then XP jumps on the wagon without any reason:

Wait, do we know if the empowerment is permanent? If the empowerment condition stops being true, is the power still empowered?

Also, vote: hydrad

if hydrad is town and XP is scum, this is probably a good way to do this. if hydrad is scum and XP is town... well, he could still do it

but the bottom line so far is really that I don't find any arguments against hydrad convincing.

I think this alone is reason enough that I am not going to Vote: XerxesPraelor. He just kinda jumped in nonchalantly on the wagon paco and I were forming. I already had a scummy read on him, so yeah.

PPE: 1

A vote with very little reason looks extremely scummy and draws attention. I find this town/leaning null as a data point on XP.
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Teproc

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1057 on: September 17, 2014, 11:09:03 am »

I wouldn't find sucha  vote townie for XP, kinda like I would find it townie for mail-mi. It's just playing according to his general meta, which is null.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1058 on: September 17, 2014, 11:09:47 am »

So, flavor. It was mentioned in setup that flavor and aligment are independent. It really makes no sense for any of currently revealed characters to ally themselves with Grejoy. Jon Snow allying himself with apparent killers of his apparent brothers? Melisandre (that's me), servant of R'Hllor, which allies herself with servant of Drowned God (fire vs water, yes) abandoning apparent reincarnation of Azor Ahai? Barristan Selmy, who participated in Pyke battle and who's main concern always was realm? Briene of Thart, who tries to prove that woman can be knight, would abandon her honor? So yes, flavor names are obviosuly irrelevant to alignment, so fact that someone claims your alignment should not bother you would you be scum or town. So reacting in non-nervous way here is what one would do. Still I would give some town points because WW as scum may panic for no apparent reason, so I'd go with about 17% scum/83% town for him

What a giant pile of nothing. This makes me want to vote EgorK again.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1059 on: September 17, 2014, 11:54:40 am »

PPS, azadin, ash, Hydrad, and XP have not claimed their flavor. I believe they should.
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1060 on: September 17, 2014, 12:05:32 pm »

PPS, azadin, ash, Hydrad, and XP have not claimed their flavor. I believe they should.
+1
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1061 on: September 17, 2014, 12:09:32 pm »

Teproc is the Senseroc

It's like WW is buddying me through Teproc now...

Town!WW plays pretty similarly to us. I remember thinking he was the new Voltaire in his newbie game. Then he rolled scum 8 times in a row.

And you kept thinking I was town :P
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azadin

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1062 on: September 17, 2014, 12:13:35 pm »

PPS, azadin, ash, Hydrad, and XP have not claimed their flavor. I believe they should.

I'm Tyrion Lannister.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1063 on: September 17, 2014, 12:14:33 pm »

PPS, azadin, ash, Hydrad, and XP have not claimed their flavor. I believe they should.

Why?
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1064 on: September 17, 2014, 12:15:02 pm »

PPS, azadin, ash, Hydrad, and XP have not claimed their flavor. I believe they should.

Why?

Because half-claiming is bad.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1065 on: September 17, 2014, 12:15:35 pm »

But they haven't claimed anything else...
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1066 on: September 17, 2014, 12:22:34 pm »

But they haven't claimed anything else...

We, as a town, have half-claimed our flavors.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1067 on: September 17, 2014, 12:23:25 pm »

But they haven't claimed anything else...

We, as a town, have half-claimed our flavors.

Oh, I thought you meant individually half-claiming. 

I was actually against claiming flavors.. I only ended up doing it because of the Teproc thing.  I still don't see the issue with some not being claimed, though.
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EgorK

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1068 on: September 17, 2014, 12:39:16 pm »

So, flavor. It was mentioned in setup that flavor and aligment are independent. It really makes no sense for any of currently revealed characters to ally themselves with Grejoy. Jon Snow allying himself with apparent killers of his apparent brothers? Melisandre (that's me), servant of R'Hllor, which allies herself with servant of Drowned God (fire vs water, yes) abandoning apparent reincarnation of Azor Ahai? Barristan Selmy, who participated in Pyke battle and who's main concern always was realm? Briene of Thart, who tries to prove that woman can be knight, would abandon her honor? So yes, flavor names are obviosuly irrelevant to alignment, so fact that someone claims your alignment should not bother you would you be scum or town. So reacting in non-nervous way here is what one would do. Still I would give some town points because WW as scum may panic for no apparent reason, so I'd go with about 17% scum/83% town for him

What a giant pile of nothing. This makes me want to vote EgorK again.

Yes, reasoning is rather long, but I just want to make sure that person that can deduce his real flavor name from description (which WW had done) would not assume flavor is relevant to alignment. I'll try to be shorter with other reads
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1069 on: September 17, 2014, 12:44:16 pm »

Ok, let's start with some theory on how I do scumhunting day 1. Fact is, and I already quoted that in some previous game, statistics shows that day 1 lynch is pretty random, i. e. expected value of hitting scum is about expected value of player being scum. Also I think that we can't say "this player is def town"/"this player is def scum" about really good players like ash or Robz. Because if we can say that and be right then we can also find opposite in games where they are scum, and hence, they would not be really good players. So I prefer to have some notes on such players but do not consider them for lynch pool/def town pool unless they do something really off (and I suspect ash cannot surprise me by now)

Next, I would assume there are about 3.1 scum in setup, so average player is about 26% scummy and 74% towny for me (as I know I am town)

So, flavor. It was mentioned in setup that flavor and aligment are independent. It really makes no sense for any of currently revealed characters to ally themselves with Grejoy. Jon Snow allying himself with apparent killers of his apparent brothers? Melisandre (that's me), servant of R'Hllor, which allies herself with servant of Drowned God (fire vs water, yes) abandoning apparent reincarnation of Azor Ahai? Barristan Selmy, who participated in Pyke battle and who's main concern always was realm? Briene of Thart, who tries to prove that woman can be knight, would abandon her honor? So yes, flavor names are obviosuly irrelevant to alignment, so fact that someone claims your alignment should not bother you would you be scum or town. So reacting in non-nervous way here is what one would do. Still I would give some town points because WW as scum may panic for no apparent reason, so I'd go with about 17% scum/83% town for him

Reads on others later

PPE: 5

Uhh... what?
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pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1070 on: September 17, 2014, 12:45:50 pm »

Teproc is the Senseroc

It's like WW is buddying me through Teproc now...



Now watch as he reveals he was scum after the last mislynch.


Other than that... 2 days until the deadline. I still don't like Hydrad anymore than I did before Silverspawn's and Azadin's rereads.

But my town read on XP has vanished. I remember now that he was quickly against Ash, saying his case was horrible and because he was forcing his house to share information. Of course, the latter is not relevant (if Ash is scum, he has shared this information on the scum QT). And I am starting to think that the former is a scummy thing to do too, since basically nobody else has agreed with me on that point (aside from Teproc on some points). I think now that it came a bit too early for town!XP to actually be so sure of that. I didn't give much thought to this before because bias.

So I could lynch XP today too.

I think that lynching EgorK is not a good idea. If he flips scum, it's obviously good, but frankly I don't think it is that probable. And if he flips town, what do we have for our trouble? Nothing, because he has interacted with basically no one, and everybody in the wagon will scurry the blame by saying "Hey it was a lurker-lynch!"


PPE: I think this discussion on flavour is irrelevant. I am not opposed to revealing each player's flavour though, you never know what can come out of that.
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Teproc

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1071 on: September 17, 2014, 12:57:48 pm »

I actually think it's better if they don't claim their flavour. I claimed mine because I figured it didn't matter at all, but it can always be used for the announcing targets trick. We can even purposefully choose people who can do that for our house powers.

As a side note, pacovf, Voltaire's got you beat by about 10 months.

Yep, this again. Teproc makes all the sense.
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Teproc

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1072 on: September 17, 2014, 12:59:48 pm »

Teproc is the Senseroc

It's like WW is buddying me through Teproc now...

Town!WW plays pretty similarly to us. I remember thinking he was the new Voltaire in his newbie game. Then he rolled scum 8 times in a row.

And you kept thinking I was town :P

I know... that's why I'm happy you're IC-ish here, I'm absolutely incapable of reading you.
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pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1073 on: September 17, 2014, 01:03:57 pm »

I actually think it's better if they don't claim their flavour. I claimed mine because I figured it didn't matter at all, but it can always be used for the announcing targets trick. We can even purposefully choose people who can do that for our house powers.

Can you explain the "announcing targets trick"? Or would you rather not?

I don't see any advantage to not-claiming. Although I don't see any advantage to claiming either, so whatevs.

Quote
As a side note, pacovf, Voltaire's got you beat by about 10 months.

Yep, this again. Teproc makes all the sense.

Irrelevant, only this game exists!
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Teproc

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #1074 on: September 17, 2014, 01:11:10 pm »

I actually think it's better if they don't claim their flavour. I claimed mine because I figured it didn't matter at all, but it can always be used for the announcing targets trick. We can even purposefully choose people who can do that for our house powers.

Can you explain the "announcing targets trick"? Or would you rather not?

I don't see any advantage to not-claiming. Although I don't see any advantage to claiming either, so whatevs.

It's a much-discussed, rarely actually used but theoretically awesome way for PRs to announce their targets without announcing it.

The typical role that works with this is Hider. It's an incredibly swingy role where you target someone at night : if they're town you "hide" behind them meaning anything targeting you will fail, but you will be affected by anything targeted by the other person. If you target scum, you die.

So let's say I'm a claimed Hider who hasn't claimed his flavor name. I make a list of players and assign them each a lette (I do this in the thread). Then the next morning if I'm dead, people look at the first letter of my flavor name : that's who I targeted, which means they're scum

Now obviously it's not useful that often but there's no actual point in having people claim, so even an improbable upside makes it worth it not to claim in my opinion.And even if we don't have anything as good as a Hider to use it with, it's very useful to townto figure out what happened at night (insert ongoing game reference).
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