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Author Topic: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia - Town Wins!  (Read 332215 times)

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azadin

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #850 on: September 15, 2014, 06:29:31 pm »

I have moved myself to Baratheon.
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pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #851 on: September 15, 2014, 06:29:35 pm »

Quote
Which is ridiculous since he was just reformatting.

it's not that ridiculous. this is the final signal for the pms to be sent out. yes, WW already said that he's okay with the plan, but I don't like that pac gives the final signal. maybe that's childish, but I really think WW should do this kind of stuff. also, there is no hurry, we can switch houses now, in an hour, 10 hours, or a day. it doesn't make a difference.

PPE 5. hey, i can do that too  :P

People forget. Seriously. Team work is annoying as hell. It's always much harder to do simple stuff than it should be. If you don't state things clearly, boldly, and with urgence, they never get done. This is a fact.
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Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #852 on: September 15, 2014, 06:30:50 pm »

pacovf speaks the sense.  8)
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #853 on: September 15, 2014, 06:31:23 pm »

As the fake IC and real Town player, I am supporting Volts plan.

Away for a while. on mobile.
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Witherweaver

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #854 on: September 15, 2014, 06:32:31 pm »

I can't send out the final signals and Pac was just saying what Volt suggested.
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pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #855 on: September 15, 2014, 06:33:08 pm »

I have moved myself to Baratheon.

Good. One down, three to go.

By the way, Voltaire, have you yourself sent a pm to Faut? You are going to look pretty stupid if you end up alone in Lannister tomorrow.
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #856 on: September 15, 2014, 06:33:42 pm »

Quote
People forget. Seriously. Team work is annoying as hell. It's always much harder to do simple stuff than it should be. If you don't state things clearly, boldly, and with urgence, they never get done. This is a fact.

yes, democracy is a bad system. which is why I think we should let WW make all decisions. that's easier, we just do what he says.

WW has confirmed, so I'll switch right away.

pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #857 on: September 15, 2014, 06:35:14 pm »

Hum, it's because WW had already confirmed that I am not still bothering Voltaire about my plan, so WW didn't really need to confirm again.

But you are reaching the right conclusion, so good!
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Teproc

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #858 on: September 15, 2014, 06:35:43 pm »

Quote
People forget. Seriously. Team work is annoying as hell. It's always much harder to do simple stuff than it should be. If you don't state things clearly, boldly, and with urgence, they never get done. This is a fact.

yes, democracy is a bad system. which is why I think we should let WW make all decisions. that's easier, we just do what he says.

WW has confirmed, so I'll switch right away.

Democracy is the worst possible political regime, except for all the others.
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #859 on: September 15, 2014, 06:36:38 pm »

Quote
Democracy is the worst possible political regime, except for all the others.
I think, it's either bad but the only one that works, or it's bad and not the only one that works. One of these two.

Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #860 on: September 15, 2014, 06:36:44 pm »

I have moved myself to Baratheon.

Good. One down, three to go.

By the way, Voltaire, have you yourself sent a pm to Faut? You are going to look pretty stupid if you end up alone in Lannister tomorrow.

I'm waiting slightly longer, since I trust myself and know I'm paying attention, in case insanity happens and I need to be somewhere else*. If this statement results in tremendous uproar, I'll switch now. Trust me, if I'm alone in Lannister tomorrow you can lynch me because that would be insane.

*just was made slightly nervous by ash, is all.
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #861 on: September 15, 2014, 06:37:04 pm »

Switch done, in case that wasn't obvious.

azadin

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #862 on: September 15, 2014, 06:37:22 pm »

Teproc, love the new sig:

Quote
Quote
PPE: a decent amount
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #863 on: September 15, 2014, 06:39:06 pm »

I am completely unable to keep up with this. All I can say is that Ash looks scummy and that theory talk is really boring, and not much real stuff has been going on. I feel like we can just do a random Lurker lynch. Not me, of course, though.

vote: EgorK
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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #864 on: September 15, 2014, 06:40:16 pm »

I'll start rereads now. first target is azadin, because he is too friendly, which makes me scared.

pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #865 on: September 15, 2014, 06:40:59 pm »

I am completely unable to keep up with this. All I can say is that Ash looks scummy and that theory talk is really boring, and not much real stuff has been going on. I feel like we can just do a random Lurker lynch. Not me, of course, though.

vote: EgorK

There was a case against you. I'm going to dig it up for you, wait a sec.
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pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #866 on: September 15, 2014, 06:43:31 pm »

7. XerxesPraelor - I see him as scummy. His vote on me had really no context. It was just a vote on me. He also hasn't posted much so people are forgetting that hes in this game which is what scum wants I think

Wait, do we know if the empowerment is permanent? If the empowerment condition stops being true, is the power still empowered?

Also, vote: hydrad

this is pretty much the post. He didn't post anything about read before or since this post.

Basically all he has done is early game discussing of the RMM for a bit. then deciding on whether or not he should reveal the tar power. then he dissapeared for a bit and posted this single post. then is gone again.

Hydrad is voting for you right now.
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #867 on: September 15, 2014, 06:56:24 pm »

Let's see. I voted Hydrad just like that because I remembered having a bad feeling about Hydrad and because I agreed with the reasons some other people made a case against him with.

Looking back, it was because Hydrad wanted to keep the arsonist power a little too much. I haven't posted much because it seems like others have been figuring out the setup already.
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #868 on: September 15, 2014, 06:58:13 pm »

well that was quick. he hasn't done a lot of posts. but, unfortunately, he isn't really scummy at all. I didn't want to do the compilation, but it's really short, so i'll do it now. maybe someone else reaches a different conclusion

Here, catching up. (Still have limited internet access until this weekend, as I mentioned in my sign up post).

Will post more in a bit, but for now, I am also Lannister, if that wasn't clear already.

Ok, caught up. There was a lot of stuff there to process, but I can say that Hydrad has posted pretty often, so I'm not sure why Voltaire didn't realize this. As for everything else, I mostly skimmed so I didn't get any obvious reads. I will do a more thorough read in a few to look for that.

I've noticed a couple things. There is ash's case against pacovf, Witherweaver/Teproc mod mixup making WW an IC (not convinced on this yet, but there was discussion), and discussion on whether we should reveal our house powers.

Ash seems to be acting town, but I'm not 100% convinced on his case on pacovf yet (I will try to do a more thorough read to look for reads). I agree with him that there is likely only one scum faction.

How likely is it that scum are spread out enough that they know most of the house powers already? If they do, it's severely to our disadvantage to keep them secret from each other. I think that the opposite scenario (where they don't already know the majority of the house powers), is helpful to neither team. That makes me think it would be to town's advantage to reveal our house powers, so we can coordinate allegiances to utilize the best ones.

PPE: 2

@Robz: you were originally very much in favour of sharing your house power. What is your opinion now?

@Azadin: you mentioned that you were going to do a more thorough reread. How is it coming along?

@EgorK: do you have any opinion on what has been said until now?

Alright, back from being away from internet. Starting my reread now.

House roles are pseudo-unkillable: if you kill one, another one takes its spot.

I am kinda assuming that Stark's empowered power is Doctor, because it makes a lot of sense. Could be something else, but in the end it's still a protective role, so it doesn't really matter.

Hence, pseudo-unkillable protective role + investigative role = profit.

I'm still going through the posts, but I need to post this thought before I lose it:

I have a sneaking suspicion that Lannister's empowered power is full Cop, and the Stark's is full doctor. Not that this makes sense from a flavour view, but think about it. Stark's first power is bodyguard. Doctor is an obvious "upgrade" to this. Our (Lannister) role is like a dumbed-down investigative type thing where we choose another player and learn something about them (though now that I think about it, it's not purely investigative because we also perform the action back). Still, my original thought was that instead of blindly being able to reflect actions, an empowered condition would also reveal some information about the targeted player.

Now, for BALANCE purposes, having pseudo-unkillable doctor AND super-cop would be absolutely insane. It's my thought that the reason the Stark's bodyguard -> doctor upgrade is contingent on Lannister being dissolved is so that combination can never actually happen.

This assumes our empowered power is a cop/investigative type thing, which I'm not positive about, but does make some sense.

The night is dark and full of terrors.

Haha, this cracked me up for some reason.

Actually, never mind. I don't think we should share unless there's an overwhelming consensus. I just realized that chances are robz is town.
FYI, chances are 27% if 3-scum-team, and 36% if 4-scum-team from your point of view, assuming both you and WW are town, that there is at least one scum in Targaryen. They are reasonable, but I wouldn't say they are good enough to be worth the risk of you thinking that scum doesn't know about your power while they actually do, and keeping town in the darkness.

And of course, from the outside, the odds of scum being in Targaryen, assuming WW is town, are 50% if 3-scum-team, and 60% if 4-scum-team, which are anything but good.

What?

But you said "actively empower our house". 

I guess the issue is that the only action available is killing.

"Actively empower" could also mean actively attempting to persuade Lannister to leave their house. It doesn't mean the only available action is killing.

Actually, never mind. I don't think we should share unless there's an overwhelming consensus. I just realized that chances are robz is town.
FYI, chances are 27% if 3-scum-team, and 36% if 4-scum-team from your point of view, assuming both you and WW are town, that there is at least one scum in Targaryen. They are reasonable, but I wouldn't say they are good enough to be worth the risk of you thinking that scum doesn't know about your power while they actually do, and keeping town in the darkness.

And of course, from the outside, the odds of scum being in Targaryen, assuming WW is town, are 50% if 3-scum-team, and 60% if 4-scum-team, which are anything but good.

What?

The numbers can be found with some elementary maths. But if there is anything I can explain, I will gladly do so.

My gut instinct told me those numbers were off, but I just did the math and you are correct. You rounded a bit which is what threw me (it's definitely not exactly 50%, closer to 47%, but close enough).

PPE: 2
[/quote]

Time to sleep for me, by a long shot.

Anyway, it looks like only Teproc and I are interested in discussing the setup seriously (which I find frankly disappointing, by the way), and since we basically agree that we should empower Lannister, I don't think it is strictly necessary to talk much more about it. If you disagree about our conclusion, I welcome your opinion; if it has reasons backing it up, all the better.
Once we decide who to lynch today, and before we hammer, we'll have to organize who goes where, and make sure that everybody has moved, and only then lynch. I would consider anyone hammering before we made sure that everybody has changed houses obvscum.

This is all to say that I will start scumhunting tomorrow.

Being still very new to forum mafia, I don't know the meta of anyone, really. So this ash/pacovf thing has me confused, but my instincts are telling me that they are both town. I don't agree with ash's case, but I think his forcefulness on it is protown. paco hasn't struck me as being jumpy or nervous that he's caught. I think his exasperation is normal and somewhat of a town tell.

I am also more interested in discussing set up until we have a solidified plan (exactly who is moving where so we can do what) before we get too focused on the scumhunting. I think we need to wrap up our setup plans ASAP so we can have as much time as possible to figure out who we want to lynch.

Also, if one of Ash's main points against pacovf were his seemingly excited post nature (new scum apparently get giddy and post differently), I'd like to point out that I got this exact impression by Hydrad. He seemed to be posting lots of small bursts of things, none of which were directly helpful (except his revealing of his house's power). Granted, I've never played a game with him before, and haven't had a chance to go back and read previous games he's been in. Just noting suspicion. Everyone seems so hyperfocused on this one case (ash/pacovf), it's like the rest of everyone else's posts are invisible.

  • Power:
    Copy the latest night Action of a targeted Player, with him as the new target

That would actually be a very strong power, but you are missing a condition. You copy the latest night Action that targeted player has done on you. There's a world of difference in power.


This could be Lannister's empowered power, actually. Though that would be pretty strong, I think.

My earlier suspicion of Hydrad has only gotten stronger the longer I've thought about it, and pacovf outlined some of the specific posts that were sticking out in my mind (especially that self aware joke...but I'm not going to get into a recursive meta discussion right now).

Vote: Hydrad

My proposal, if we do in fact lynch Hydrad are as follows:
  • Ichi to Baratheon
  • a Baratheon to Lannister
  • a Stark to Lannister
  • a Targaryen (Witherweaver?) to Lannister
  • a Lannister to Stark
  • 2 Lannisters to Baratheon

We still need to figure out specific people for (2), (3), (5), and (6).

This would leave us with the following:

Lannister
  • 4 members
  • empowered
  • Joffrey on Iron Throne (strongman Hand of the King)

Stark
  • 3 members
  • not empowered

Targaryen
  • 2 members
  • not empowered

Baratheon
  • 3 members
  • not empowered


What that's wrong. My way had 5 in baratheon so that we would also be empowered. 1 stark would join us and one other person as you only have 12 there

Not if we lynch you. That makes 12. I could be talked into rearranging some moves if we want to empower 2 houses tonight, but I'm not sure it's worth the risk.

This actually made me think of another of question: if Baratheon does become empowered (they have to have made the king by having a majority of members, no?), do they become de-empowered if they lose the throne?

PPE: 1, looks like XP thought of the same thing.

I absolutely do not want Baratheon empowered. I still lean towards abandoning them.

Are you ok with my proposal of moves, then? It doesn't abandon Baratheon, but doesn't empower them, either. Leaves 3 people there for accountability purposes.

Though EgorK is also suspiciously non-active and he's in there.

Surely a Lannister can answer whether "passing through" is enough to qualify, but this post makes me think it does.

Lannister's EMpowerment is that the House needs to (collectively) have been sworn to the other Houses. So a former Stark/Targ, and a former Baratheon, in a 6-player House would be enough, for example.

I confirm this. Passing through is sufficient.

Not "anyone who has passed through" Baratheon will count for empowering Lannister, you need an original memeber of the house, or at least tha's how I understood it.

QTs aren't necessarily pro-scum. They generally are though.

So huh, would you be pro or anti dissolving Baratheon? Because right now, unless we empower them just to check, I think they are a liability for town, save for the extra QT. If the consensus is that QTs are pro-scum, I'm in favour of dissolving the House.

I guess we could send people there today and dissolve it tomorrow, just to have spare Baratheons for the Lannisters, but that's about it.

I should mention that our empowerment condition only requires players having been sworn to the remaining houses, not all of the original houses.

There is no way we can dissolve the houses. It gives scum way too much power with their singular night kill when town is left with nothing. I seriously believe our best bet at this point is to move around, see what sort of empowerment the house powers get, and go from there. If we truly believe that dissolving the PRs will give town an advantage, we can always do that day 2.

Mmm, don't like it. I mean, it's alright, but a powered up bodyguard is not much use if it doesn't have a PR to protect, and this only leaves the Targs (that we know of).

Huh? Bodyguard can protect WW, anyone who becomes a consensus town read, etc. even ignoring for possible town PRs.

I'm really hoping we didn't misread the misplay there by calling him IC. If he turns out to be scum, then wow. We are basing our entire strategy on him being IC (not that I disagree with this).

Quote
1. If the target has performed multiple actions on you, you get to choose, instead of "most recent"
2. After picking your target to copy an action from, you then get to pick the new target.

if either of that is true, it's not worth empowering lannister. they are pretty weak.

but, for all we know, it could also be

" you get a list with all abilities that have been used against any of your house in the previous night. choose any two these abilities and use them on any targets outside of your house "

which would be super strong

I don't really buy that a weak original ability implicated a weak empowered ability. for balance purposes, a contrary argument could even be made.

Well, what about the fact that my plan empowers 2 Houses instead of 1? And doesn't seem to ruin Targ empowerment down the line, as WW seems fine with the idea of Lannister dying in general.

I think the main argument against disassembling Lannister right now is that it only requires 3 moves just to see what it is. We don't know what it is, and it could be a very useful town power. The only con to doing so is that some people will lose a potential move. If we dissolve it, that's it. There's no going back.

PPE: 2

Mmm, don't like it. I mean, it's alright, but a powered up bodyguard is not much use if it doesn't have a PR to protect, and this only leaves the Targs (that we know of).

Huh? Bodyguard can protect WW, anyone who becomes a consensus town read, etc. even ignoring for possible town PRs.

I'm really hoping we didn't misread the misplay there by calling him IC. If he turns out to be scum, then wow. We are basing our entire strategy on him being IC (not that I disagree with this).

We absolutely are not basing our entire strategy around it. I'm not. Are you?

Seems to be that way. "Make sure WW is here so he can do this and that, and let's bodyguard him so he stays alive, etc." I'm not saying I don't think he's an IC, I was just expressing my thoughts that dang I really hope we read that right.

I like where this is going.

I do not. I think this is town ash.

The only person who may be able to convince me otherwise is Robz, because he's really good at reading ash based off his play, but we don't have Robz here. Except I think Robz also thinks this is twon ash.

We could always do it the other way around, lynch paco. If he flips town, we lynch ash D2.

I like where this is going.

I do not. I think this is town ash.

The only person who may be able to convince me otherwise is Robz, because he's really good at reading ash based off his play, but we don't have Robz here. Except I think Robz also thinks this is twon ash.

We could always do it the other way around, lynch paco. If he flips town, we lynch ash D2.

Worst idea ever, as I currently think odds are highest they are both town.

I don't think it's the worst idea, but ok. I actually have town reads on both as well, but I don't feel like we'll be able to go forward until ash stops his train of an attempted case, and he seems to be pretty stubborn about not budging so I was offering an alternative.

Also, when did we come to the consensus that we're dissolving Lannister? I still don't see why Voltaire's plan is any better than mine.

PPE 3

Kinda.

@Azadin, silverspawn and pingpongsam: send a PM to Faust asking to move to House Baratheon. Now. Post when you've done so.
@Ichimaru Gin: send a PM to Faust asking to move to House Stark. Now. Post when you've done so.

IG has to wait until we know who we're lynching. This is getting out of control. Everyone take a step back, breathe, and let's think.

Now bolded for convenience and ease of view:

AZADIN, SILVERSPAWN AND PINGPONGSAM: SEND A PM TO FAUST ASKING TO MOVE TO HOUSE BARATHEON. NOW. POST HERE ONCE YOU'VE DONE SO

ICHIMARU GIN: SEND A PM TO FAUT ASKING TO MOVE TO HOUSE STARK. NOW. POST HERE ONCE YOU'VE DONE SO.


Better.

since when are you leading? >_<

ww, can you confirm?

If we're following Voltaire's plan, he also stated the exact same instructions. Let me find the post....

I have moved myself to Baratheon.

Teproc, love the new sig:

Quote
Quote
PPE: a decent amount

so, there are a lot of posts saying, "I'll read in XXX". these are null I think. There is the post where he proposes his plan which we end up not doing. He defends it for a reasonable amount of time, then gives up on it. there are a few posts commenting current stuff/problems, which all seem more or less sincere. A pretty good content/post ratio.

town points for these I think:

Quote
I should mention that our empowerment condition only requires players having been sworn to the remaining houses, not all of the original houses.

Quote
    Being still very new to forum mafia, I don't know the meta of anyone, really. So this ash/pacovf thing has me confused, but my instincts are telling me that they are both town. I don't agree with ash's case, but I think his forcefulness on it is protown. paco hasn't struck me as being jumpy or nervous that he's caught. I think his exasperation is normal and somewhat of a town tell.

    I am also more interested in discussing set up until we have a solidified plan (exactly who is moving where so we can do what) before we get too focused on the scumhunting. I think we need to wrap up our setup plans ASAP so we can have as much time as possible to figure out who we want to lynch.

given that he also said he's relatively new, I'm definitely not voting for him.

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #869 on: September 15, 2014, 06:59:24 pm »

Teproc, love the new sig:

Quote
Quote
PPE: a decent amount

woo I made it into a sig!

But seriously I was reading this game a page behind for a while as every time i clicked to read the final page another page would appear. Its been going really fast.
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For anyone else, such a statement would be a scum tell.  For Hydrad, it's simply a tell that you're reading something from Hydrad.

Voltaire

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #870 on: September 15, 2014, 07:08:12 pm »

Town-ish read on XP for behavior after his return.
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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #871 on: September 15, 2014, 07:09:34 pm »

town points for these I think:

Quote
I should mention that our empowerment condition only requires players having been sworn to the remaining houses, not all of the original houses.

Why? Why town points for pointing out the setup?

Quote
given that he also said he's relatively new, I'm definitely not voting for him.

Ooh ooh do I get freebies too?
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silverspawn

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #872 on: September 15, 2014, 07:13:06 pm »

town points for these I think:
given that he also said he's relatively new, I'm definitely not voting for him.

Ooh ooh do I get freebies too?

his posts strike me as very towny without really any suspicious parts. that's either a town, or a scum who plays really well. he's new, so it's probably the former. just being new isn't worth anything by itself.

so, no  ;)

pacovf

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #873 on: September 15, 2014, 07:14:05 pm »

Town-ish read on XP for behavior after his return.

Hmmm, even with the "let's random lynch a lurker"?
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: M50: A Song Of Ice And Fire Mafia (Day 1)
« Reply #874 on: September 15, 2014, 07:16:08 pm »

Also, I am officially disappointed that my RMM has fewer posts than this, with 4 days fewer too.

I like Azadin's plan better, but it looks like I'm too late for the discussion? Hiding a powerful PR behind a really weak one seems like the sort of thing that an interesting setup would have.

PPE: I also agree Azadin looks pretty towny to me.

PPE: Well, not many people are actoming scummy, and we don't have much time left..
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