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[urob]

I just got beaten pretty badly by black market. Here is the kingdom:

Code: [Select]

Beggar, Pawn, Black Market, Philosopher's Stone, Advisor, Monument, Worker's Village, Saboteur, Nobles, Expand
And here is the log: http://gokosalvager.com/static/logprettifier.html?20140821/log.53663e55e4b0462a80927424.1408645973702.txt

I didn't go for black market and my opponent did. From what I thought I was pretty unlucky, since his first two plays gave him a Marauder (turn 3) and a witch (turn 7). I don't remember completely what was in the black market deck, but before the game I thought these were the only two key cards in it.

Given that there was no trashing (other than expand), was it a mistake not to go for black market here?

To me a big money-ish Nobles/Working Village Engine seemed best here, which is why I opened Monument/Silver, going primary for Nobles. I didn't think that Black market instead of Monument was worth the point loss, and opening both seemed to be bad in light that I really wanted to get to 6.

Now that I was beaten by my opponent buying black market, I wonder if that was the right choice. Thinking about it, I actually tend to think yes, since the only real cost of black market over silver was the chance of collusion here. The upside on the other hand was the chance of getting a witch, which is pretty big here. Any thoughts?

[jsh357]

Think I like black market/monument here.  You really want those unique power cards, and workers village means you can afford more terminals.

[shark_bait]

Yes, ignoring BM was a mistake.  There are a number of very attractive targets including Menagerie, Crossroads, Market, Spice Merchant, Storeroom, Witch, Rabble, Marauder, Oasis, Herald, Scheme, Jester and Mystic.

Your plan of a Worker's Village/Nobles engine will not work.  Nobles is expensive for draw and with no trashing except for Expand, it's going to be slow.  Combined with both a Curser and a Looter in the Black Market you can expect to get junked up.

Open double Black Market.  Hope to get some of those attractive target mentioned above on Turn 3 or 4.  If you can't get them initially get some Worker's Villages and continue to search the Black Market for those cards.

[urob]

Ok, I think I see why black market is a good idea, and probably even better than Monument. But is opening double black market really the best way to maximize getting those good cards? My ranking over having one of those cards in turn 3/4 is something like witch > marauder > jester, rabble, scheme > etc. Three of those cards are $5, so having two black markets increases the chances of seeing them, but on the other hand decreases the chances of actually buying them given that it is impossible if they collide. Is perhaps even silver/black market, and then adding a second black market + monument after a working village good here?

[2.71828.....]

Think I like black market/monument here.

[Mic Qsenoch]

Ok, I think I see why black market is a good idea, and probably even better than Monument. But is opening double black market really the best way to maximize getting those good cards? My ranking over having one of those cards in turn 3/4 is something like witch > marauder > jester, rabble, scheme > etc. Three of those cards are $5, so having two black markets increases the chances of seeing them, but on the other hand decreases the chances of actually buying them given that it is impossible if they collide. Is perhaps even silver/black market, and then adding a second black market + monument after a working village good here?

I think Silver/Black Market is a reasonable opening, but there are enough $3-4 cost cards (in the market, and in the regular kingdom) to allow for double Black Market also. It's okay to reveal Witch and not be able to afford it, at least your opponent didn't see it. You'd rather be taking more shots at the Black Market than your opponent, even if it means some collisions. You should definitely widen your view of the cards in the black market. I'd say Trading Post/Spice Merchant/Count are better early pulls than any of the cards you listed. And their usefulness will last longer than usual as there are two strong sources of alt-VP on this board. This makes a trashed down engine much better. A single Rabble isn't going to do much.

I don't see any reason to open Monument/Black Market.

[urob]

Thank you all for your feedback! I agree with the trashing cards and also that adding a second market in turn 3 or 4 might be worthwhile.

About opening double black market (really a subtle point compared to my initial question):

It's okay to reveal Witch and not be able to afford it, at least your opponent didn't see it. You'd rather be taking more shots at the Black Market than your opponent, even if it means some collisions.

Having more shots than my opponent seems to be a valid argument only if we cycled at least once through the whole black market deck, since otherwise the probability of him seeing a power card remains unchanged by the fact that I had seen the deck two instead of one time. So adding a 2nd market in the first two turns as opposed to turn 3/4 seems really only worth it, if that maxes the chance of me actually buying a good card. Since 3 out of 4 of the available trashers (trading post, count, mint) cost $5, I still think that silver/black market might be better than double market.

[shark_bait]

The thing about double BM is that even if they collide you can still probably afford a WV, which you want a lot of anyways.

[SCSN]

I'd open double BM here before looking what's actually in it, as I can't think of (m)any BM decks where that open would be a mistake.

[urob]

The thing about double BM is that even if they collide you can still probably afford a WV, which you want a lot of anyways.

Ok, I see. So that plus the upshot of them not colliding is pretty good.

[DG]

So what is the income profile for a BM hand when opening BM + terminal compared to BM + silver? Can someone do the maths?

A common beginner's mistake with BM is to overbuy terminals and it would certainly be possible to get that wrong in this kingdom (if you're not building your deck like a top player).

[JW]

So what is the income profile for a BM hand when opening BM + terminal compared to BM + silver? Can someone do the maths?

There are similar calculations here: http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/03/09/basic-opening-probabilities/

Silver-Black Market has 8.8% chance not to hit $5 on turns 3-4. Black Market-Black Market has a 27.8% chance not to hit $5 on turns 3-4.  What you're most interested here though is the number of Black market plays on which you hit $5 on your second shuffle.

[Mic Qsenoch]

Thank you all for your feedback! I agree with the trashing cards and also that adding a second market in turn 3 or 4 might be worthwhile.

About opening double black market (really a subtle point compared to my initial question):

It's okay to reveal Witch and not be able to afford it, at least your opponent didn't see it. You'd rather be taking more shots at the Black Market than your opponent, even if it means some collisions.

Having more shots than my opponent seems to be a valid argument only if we cycled at least once through the whole black market deck, since otherwise the probability of him seeing a power card remains unchanged by the fact that I had seen the deck two instead of one time. So adding a 2nd market in the first two turns as opposed to turn 3/4 seems really only worth it, if that maxes the chance of me actually buying a good card.

The case I expressed was conditioned, i.e. if you draw a power $5 and can't afford it, then it's mitigated somewhat by your opponent not seeing it for a while either.

In the general case: your opponent's odds of seeing a particular card don't change relative to any other card in the market (before a new cycle). But his odds of buying any of the Black Market cards in this game go down relative to yours. This is assuming rough equality of money available when you each play the BM. This effect is greater the longer the 2:1 ratio is maintained, if it's just the first shuffle it probably isn't a big deal. This isn't enough to answer whether you want to open double Black Market, here I suspect that either opening is reasonable and close to the other. Maybe double Black Market has a little edge. You definitely want a second Black Market in your deck soon.

Also, if both players go for Black Market (and especially if one or both of you have two Black Markets), you will cycle through the entire black market deck (maybe a couple times).