Your Counterfeit-Candlestick Opening looks good as there is a high chance to get to $5 at least once on the second shuffle (I get that it’s the same 81% to hit $5 at least once on turns 3-4 as Silver-Fishing Village, assuming that you save the coin token to assist in hitting $5).
I'm surprised that you take Minion on your second $5, as the first Upgrade seems more important. Your trashing and main draw (Minion) all cost $5, Advisor is weak until you have trashed a lot of cards, and Candlestick Maker, while important for the non-terminal +Buy, isn’t enough coin to reliably hit $5 without Silvers, which don’t combine well with Minion.
Without a quite thin deck I don’t think I’d buy Graverobber over Minion, as happened in the game, due to the lack of extra Actions (you have to stop the Minion chain to play Graverobber).