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Author Topic: Tricky Herald engine, or Jack?  (Read 9481 times)

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JW

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Re: Tricky Herald engine, or Jack?
« Reply #25 on: August 11, 2014, 10:45:56 am »
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I just calculated the chance that you hit $5 at least once on turns 3-4 with Salvager/Lighthouse vs. Salvager-Silver [assuming that you don't Salvage the Silver/Lighthouse]. Salvager-Lighthouse is about 67%. By comparison, Salvager-Silver is about 83.5% (Salvager can miss estate, so it is not as good as the standard double Silver chance of 91.2%: http://dominionstrategy.com/2011/06/21/opening-probabilities-part-ii/).

If you Salvage the Lighthouse/Silver to get to $5, if need be, as Davio pointed out I should consider, then the chance to hit $5 at least once on turns 3-4 increases for Lighthouse-Salvager.  Lighthouse-Salvager increases to about 75.5%. Silver-Salvager is unchanged at 83.5%.

The reason why Salvager-Silver opening is unchanged is that Salvaging the Silver can never cause a hand that wouldn't otherwise hit $5 to hit $5. But Lighthouse-Salvager-3 Copper hits $5 if you Salvage the Lighthouse, which makes a difference. 

In general you buy too much treasures that could be used more effectively in midgame

Thanks, good points.
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