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Author Topic: Best 30-of deck?  (Read 7485 times)

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Awaclus

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #50 on: October 11, 2015, 11:43:40 am »
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Yeah I figured it would be slow, but maybe JUST fast enough against normal decks. Havent done the maths against other thirty-of decks, hoped someone might do it for me.

Well, it loses against Bloodfen Raptor.

Haddock

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #51 on: October 11, 2015, 01:07:26 pm »
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Not in a face race it doesn't.
Can't be bothered to work out the trading possibilities.

Edit: forget that, you're right. Forget all of it.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2015, 01:10:15 pm by Haddock »
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ycz6

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #52 on: October 12, 2015, 04:17:15 pm »
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Here's a conversation I had on reddit with someone who seems to have really thought this through: https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3ocf2h/tavern_brawl_idea_one_man_army/cvw5jdp

Some stuff I learned...

  • Mind Blast, Murloc Tidecaller (Warlock/Hunter), Grimscale Oracle/Timber Wolf, and Mechwarper (Warlock/Mage/Druid) are the benchmarks. Any viable deck needs to be able to beat at least one of them; in particular, it needs to be able to do disrupt the opponent somehow by turn 4, and in practice turn 3.
  • Of these, Mind Blast probably has the fewest counters. The only way to win is to outrace it, which very few decks can do from both player positions. Minion-based decks, on the other hand, can lose to any number of things.
  • Abusive Sergeant is the best of the 1 mana 2/1s.
  • Healing-based decks are weaker than they look, because they can usually be played around in fatigue. For example, Light of the Naaru actually loses to Mind Blast.
  • If we only allow minions, then there are actually a ton of viable options. Cards like Deathlord, Unstable Ghoul, and Millhouse Manastorm suddenly become quite good in certain "metas."
  • Flame Leviathan is insane.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2015, 04:19:34 pm by ycz6 »
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popsofctown

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #53 on: October 12, 2015, 04:24:29 pm »
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What even beats Mind Blast? Healing Totem and Lightwell? Surely Doctor is too slow.
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #54 on: October 12, 2015, 05:24:46 pm »
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Mind Blast is pretty impressive. Light of the Naaru loses to it, but only in some funky ways.

ycz6

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #55 on: October 12, 2015, 06:45:24 pm »
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What even beats Mind Blast? Healing Totem and Lightwell? Surely Doctor is too slow.

Mind Blast does lose to Voodoo Doctor, it turns out. Any 2/1 for 1 can kill on turn 5 from either position, and Voodoo Doctor's heal lets it survive on turn 5 even if Mind Blast goes first.

Also, from https://www.reddit.com/r/hearthstone/comments/3ocf2h/tavern_brawl_idea_one_man_army/cvwivvp:

Quote from: Aaron_Lecon
The following are all able to beat mindblast when going second: Abusive sergeant, dust devil, grimscale oracle, tidecaller, timber wolf, voodoo doctor, mechwarper with any hero power except warlock's, shaman's or paladin's (though priest, warrior and mage have trouble when going first instead), whirling zap-o-matic; there are a few others that also come very close (and would beat soulfire) though fall just short of beating mindblast. There might also be some I missed (like maybe a lucky unstable portal)
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #56 on: October 12, 2015, 06:59:05 pm »
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It seems like Hunter with timber wolf might be the best "general case" one, though it in turn loses to things that can disrupt it early.

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #57 on: October 12, 2015, 07:00:37 pm »
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I was wondering if, as "tech" against the TW/etc decks that are x/1 minions, you could run novice engineer? You'd be able to trade and board flood quicker than your opponent, but I'm not sure you could put enough damage on the field to finish out before fatigue kills you.

ED: with hunter, I'd imagine, to allow for increased face damage once you've hit flooded board.

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2015, 07:03:26 pm »
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I was wondering if, as "tech" against the TW/etc decks that are x/1 minions, you could run novice engineer? You'd be able to trade and board flood quicker than your opponent, but I'm not sure you could put enough damage on the field to finish out before fatigue kills you.

ED: with hunter, I'd imagine, to allow for increased face damage once you've hit flooded board.

Novice Engineer is only as good as Paladin's hero power.

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #59 on: October 12, 2015, 07:16:20 pm »
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Wouldn't Mind Blast only defeat Light of the Naaru if you know that's what it is? If you're P1 running Mind Blast, all you know on turn 2 is that your opponent is a Priest and didn't play anything on turn 1. For example, your opponent might also be running Mind Blast. MB mirror is normally a win for P1, but if P1 skips playing MB on 2, then it becomes a win for P2.

Code: [Select]
mind blast mirror (saving coin)

    2. mb; mb
    3. mb; mb coin mb
    4. mb mb; mb mb
    5. mb mb -> win

    or

    2. mb; mb
    3. mb; mb coin mb
    4. mb mb; mb heal
    5. mb heal; mb mb
    6. mb -> win

    so it's p1 win both ways

mind blast mirror (p2 saves coin, p1 skips first mb)

    2. ; mb
    3. mb; mb coin mb
    4. mb mb; mb mb
    5. mb mb; mb mb -> win

    so p2 wins if p1 skips a mb
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chairs

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #60 on: October 12, 2015, 07:27:51 pm »
0

I was wondering if, as "tech" against the TW/etc decks that are x/1 minions, you could run novice engineer? You'd be able to trade and board flood quicker than your opponent, but I'm not sure you could put enough damage on the field to finish out before fatigue kills you.

ED: with hunter, I'd imagine, to allow for increased face damage once you've hit flooded board.

Novice Engineer is only as good as Paladin's hero power.

Not true once you hit turn 4, where you can put 2 down; nor on turn 6, where you can put down 3... etc.

chairs

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #61 on: October 12, 2015, 07:28:43 pm »
0

Wouldn't Mind Blast only defeat Light of the Naaru if you know that's what it is? If you're P1 running Mind Blast, all you know on turn 2 is that your opponent is a Priest and didn't play anything on turn 1. For example, your opponent might also be running Mind Blast. MB mirror is normally a win for P1, but if P1 skips playing MB on 2, then it becomes a win for P2.

Code: [Select]
mind blast mirror (saving coin)

    2. mb; mb
    3. mb; mb coin mb
    4. mb mb; mb mb
    5. mb mb -> win

    or

    2. mb; mb
    3. mb; mb coin mb
    4. mb mb; mb heal
    5. mb heal; mb mb
    6. mb -> win

    so it's p1 win both ways

mind blast mirror (p2 saves coin, p1 skips first mb)

    2. ; mb
    3. mb; mb coin mb
    4. mb mb; mb mb
    5. mb mb; mb mb -> win

    so p2 wins if p1 skips a mb

Ayup.

Awaclus

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #62 on: October 12, 2015, 07:33:43 pm »
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I was wondering if, as "tech" against the TW/etc decks that are x/1 minions, you could run novice engineer? You'd be able to trade and board flood quicker than your opponent, but I'm not sure you could put enough damage on the field to finish out before fatigue kills you.

ED: with hunter, I'd imagine, to allow for increased face damage once you've hit flooded board.

Novice Engineer is only as good as Paladin's hero power.

Not true once you hit turn 4, where you can put 2 down; nor on turn 6, where you can put down 3... etc.

You still wouldn't want to spend your turn 4 doing nothing but using Paladin's hero power twice.

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #63 on: October 12, 2015, 08:15:14 pm »
+1

The Blast/Naaru game theory seems pretty complicated. Let's imagine a meta where everyone is running Mind Blast, and everyone knows that everyone's running Mind Blast, and everyone knows that, etc. In this meta, running Mind Blast gives you a 50% win rate (win as P1, lose as P2).

Now let's imagine you switch to playing Naaru instead. As P2, you now always win because P1 will unknowingly play Mind Blast on turn 2. As P1, because you can't make a play on turn 2, P2 infers that you are running Naaru, as if you were running Blast then skipping turn 2 would be a losing play in the current meta; so P2 plays as if you are running Naaru--I think this leads to a win for P2 (by bursting during fatigue) but I haven't checked.

So your winrate after switching to Naaru is still 50%, which isn't better, but it also isn't worse. So there is nothing preventing some Naaru players from infiltrating the meta, at which point the mind games get super complicated in each game.
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #64 on: October 14, 2015, 09:15:31 pm »
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Here's my attempt at solving the Blast/Naaru metagame. TL;DR: Given those two choices, the equilibrium is to run Mind Blast at least 50% of the time (including 100%), and Light of the Naaru the rest of the time; when running Mind Blast as P1, always assume your opponent is running Mind Blast too.

To start the analysis, I think there are only three potentially-viable strategies: run Naaru, or run Blast and, as P1, either hold it until fatigue or play it on turn 2. Although I haven't quite proven it, intuitively I don't think there's any point as P1 to skip playing Mind Blast on turn 2 but not hold it all the way to fatigue; you already give up your certain win in the mirror by passing turn 2, so you might as well go all-in and play as if P2 is running Naaru.

Call these three strategies Bp (Blast-play), Bh (Blast-hold), N (Naaru). Each strategy has a 50% winrate against itself (only depending on which seat you draw). Bp wins 100% vs Bh and 50% vs N. Bh wins 100% vs N. Usual 2-player game theory can then solve for all equilibriums via linear programming, using this payoff matrix:
Code: [Select]
    Bp   Bh   N
Bp  0.5  1.0  0.5
Bh  0.0  0.5  1.0
N   0.5  0.0  0.5

It's not too hard to reason out the equilibrium without LP, using the fact that the optimal winrate must be exactly 50%, because of symmetry. Bp wins >=50% vs everything and 100% vs Bh, so Bh can't be played or always playing Bp would get better than 50% winrate. But if Bh is not being played, both Bp and N have 50% winrate not matter what proportion they appear. However N must be played no more than 50% of the time or else Bh would have >50% winrate vs the field.
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Grujah

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #65 on: October 16, 2015, 06:07:23 am »
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The Blast/Naaru game theory seems pretty complicated. Let's imagine a meta where everyone is running Mind Blast, and everyone knows that everyone's running Mind Blast, and everyone knows that, etc. In this meta, running Mind Blast gives you a 50% win rate (win as P1, lose as P2).

Now let's imagine you switch to playing Naaru instead. As P2, you now always win because P1 will unknowingly play Mind Blast on turn 2. As P1, because you can't make a play on turn 2, P2 infers that you are running Naaru, as if you were running Blast then skipping turn 2 would be a losing play in the current meta; so P2 plays as if you are running Naaru--I think this leads to a win for P2 (by bursting during fatigue) but I haven't checked.

So your winrate after switching to Naaru is still 50%, which isn't better, but it also isn't worse. So there is nothing preventing some Naaru players from infiltrating the meta, at which point the mind games get super complicated in each game.

This is why this theorycraft things like 3card blind in MTG usually use "open information" i.e. you know what your opponent plays.
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chairs

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #66 on: October 16, 2015, 11:49:23 am »
0

I was wondering if, as "tech" against the TW/etc decks that are x/1 minions, you could run novice engineer? You'd be able to trade and board flood quicker than your opponent, but I'm not sure you could put enough damage on the field to finish out before fatigue kills you.

ED: with hunter, I'd imagine, to allow for increased face damage once you've hit flooded board.

Novice Engineer is only as good as Paladin's hero power.

Not true once you hit turn 4, where you can put 2 down; nor on turn 6, where you can put down 3... etc.

You still wouldn't want to spend your turn 4 doing nothing but using Paladin's hero power twice.

YOU DON'T KNOW ME MAYBE I WOULD

blueblimp

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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #67 on: October 16, 2015, 08:13:27 pm »
0

The Blast/Naaru game theory seems pretty complicated. Let's imagine a meta where everyone is running Mind Blast, and everyone knows that everyone's running Mind Blast, and everyone knows that, etc. In this meta, running Mind Blast gives you a 50% win rate (win as P1, lose as P2).

Now let's imagine you switch to playing Naaru instead. As P2, you now always win because P1 will unknowingly play Mind Blast on turn 2. As P1, because you can't make a play on turn 2, P2 infers that you are running Naaru, as if you were running Blast then skipping turn 2 would be a losing play in the current meta; so P2 plays as if you are running Naaru--I think this leads to a win for P2 (by bursting during fatigue) but I haven't checked.

So your winrate after switching to Naaru is still 50%, which isn't better, but it also isn't worse. So there is nothing preventing some Naaru players from infiltrating the meta, at which point the mind games get super complicated in each game.

This is why this theorycraft things like 3card blind in MTG usually use "open information" i.e. you know what your opponent plays.
That makes sense to me in the context of this thread. (If nothing else, it makes it a lot easier to compare decks.) The linked Reddit thread though is considering a hypothetical Brawl using this ruleset, and I think in that case you wouldn't know which deck your opponent is playing.
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2015, 06:57:22 am »
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Does Living Roots have a place in this conversation?
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #69 on: October 12, 2016, 02:32:47 pm »
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Does Living Roots have a place in this conversation?

This thread is relevant with the current Brawl.
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #70 on: October 12, 2016, 02:57:05 pm »
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Does Living Roots have a place in this conversation?

This thread is relevant with the current Brawl.

So then, Maelstrom Portal should do well against any weeny minion deck right?
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #71 on: October 12, 2016, 04:09:01 pm »
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Soulfire was nerfed after this thread started (from 0 mana to 1 mana), and it seems bad now.
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #72 on: October 12, 2016, 04:15:31 pm »
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Murloc Tidecaller seems to work well
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #73 on: October 12, 2016, 04:16:26 pm »
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Murloc Tidecaller seems to work well
Just beat it with Voodoo Doctor. :P
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Re: Best 30-of deck?
« Reply #74 on: October 12, 2016, 05:52:34 pm »
0

Timber Wolf also works.
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