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Flip5ide

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Hovel
« on: June 29, 2014, 02:29:14 pm »
+3

I may be wrong in my intuition here, but after a couple times of trashing my Hovel by buying an Estate with a 5/2 split (instead of buying nothing), I realized that I'm pretty sure it hurts more than helps and I don't do it anymore. But all the time I see people essentially trading their more-trashable Hovel for an Estate.

Not really a big deal in terms of deciding a game, but for some reason I see a lot of people doing this. And mind you, it's not a TfB thing. Am I right here?
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LastFootnote

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2014, 02:32:02 pm »
+1

I think you are right. In a Rebuild game, buying the Estate is worth it. There are a few other reasons to do it. (My favorite is buying an Estate to trash my Hovel in order to activate Market Square.) but normally I think it's a Bad Idea.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2014, 02:36:46 pm »
0

If you start to play people in the 5000+ ranking, almost no one trashes their Hovel with estate except Rebuild and edge cases.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2014, 02:45:59 pm »
0

Butcher would be another example of when you would want to trash the hovel on a 5/2
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2014, 02:55:52 pm »
0

Sometimes I trash it on $2 when I have Apprentice or Salvager in mind, but usually it's not a good plan.  You'd rather trash it for a Province or something.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2014, 03:16:46 pm »
+2

Yeah, it's only a good idea if you really want that estate.  That said, assuming the board makes Tunnel or Island useful, those can also trash Hovel.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2014, 03:44:19 pm »
0

Yeah, it's only a good idea if you really want that estate.  That said, assuming the board makes Tunnel or Island useful, those can also trash Hovel.
I would say that Hovel makes Island useful if you can open with it to trash the Hovel, if there is no other strong trashing and the board isn't a special case scenario where trashing isn't useful.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2014, 06:07:42 pm »
+3

I guess that Great Hall opening is a good idea now, right?
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silverspawn

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2014, 06:36:27 pm »
0

I guess that Great Hall opening is a good idea now, right?
no, mostly it's not.

GendoIkari

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2014, 06:43:51 pm »
0

I guess that Great Hall opening is a good idea now, right?

It would be often if the choice were Great Hall or nothing.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2014, 06:59:56 pm »
+3

I guess that Great Hall opening is a good idea now, right?
no, mostly it's not.

The original version of Hovel let you discard your hand to trash it. Apparently it was pretty much always the right decision to do it ASAP. This suggests that opening Great Hall to trash your Hovel is indeed a good idea.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2014, 07:09:27 pm »
0

I guess that Great Hall opening is a good idea now, right?
no, mostly it's not.

The original version of Hovel let you discard your hand to trash it. Apparently it was pretty much always the right decision to do it ASAP. This suggests that opening Great Hall to trash your Hovel is indeed a good idea.

The thing about trashing Hovel to GH is that you cycle much quicker. Your other card is guaranteed to be played turn 3/4 and also it will cycle your deck quicker.
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Breezy D

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2014, 08:34:34 pm »
0

Getting an estate to trash hovel early can be good in an ambassador war.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2014, 08:38:05 pm »
+22

My advice:  never buy Hovel.
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GendoIkari

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2014, 08:44:45 pm »
+18

My advice:  never buy Hovel.

Well sure, but you need to know how to deal with one in case you are Ambassadored one.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2014, 09:10:20 pm »
+2

Quote
The original version of Hovel let you discard your hand to trash it. Apparently it was pretty much always the right decision to do it ASAP. This suggests that opening Great Hall to trash your Hovel is indeed a good idea.
Yea, I've been wondering about this statement a lot. My guess was that they simply misplayed it. I recall a bunch of games where you had the chance to trash hovel via great hall, but players rarely do it.

simulations show this:

Quote
silver/trash hits 5 with a 100.0% chance once and with a 0.0 % chance twice
silver/silver hits 5 with a 76.2995% chance once and with a 14.9157 % chance twice

which makes sense, silver/trash has 10 cards, so you'll draw all of them in your first 2 turns, and the hand with silver either hits 5$ or has both dead cards, in which case the next hand has 5 coppers and hits five, but you only have a total money of 9$, so you can't hit 5$ twice -> 100%/0%. one guaranteed 5$ is mostly preferable to the usual 76% one/15 two, so yea, maybe it' is better than i thought after all.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2014, 10:05:52 pm by silverspawn »
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2014, 09:18:14 pm »
0

Quote
The original version of Hovel let you discard your hand to trash it. Apparently it was pretty much always the right decision to do it ASAP. This suggests that opening Great Hall to trash your Hovel is indeed a good idea.
Yea, I've been wondering about this statement a lot. My guess was that they simply misplayed it. I've recall a bunch of games where you had the chance to trash hovel via great hall, but players rarely do it.

simulations show this:

Quote
silver/trash hits 5 with a 100.0% chance once and with a 0.0 % chance twice
silver/silver hits 5 with a 76.2995% chance once and with a 14.9157 % chance twice

which makes sense, silver/trash has 10 cards, so you'll draw all of them in your first 2 turns, and the hand with silver either hits 5$ or has both dead cards, in which case the next hand has 5 coppers and hits five, but you only have a total money of 9$, so you can't hit 5$ twice -> 100%/0%. one guaranteed 5$ is mostly preferable to the usual 76% one/15 two, so yea, maybe it' is better than i thought after all.

With a power $5 on the board, that sounds pretty good to me
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Marcory

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #17 on: June 29, 2014, 09:20:46 pm »
0

In basic Thunderstone, the optimal play was almost always to waste your turn in order to destroy a Militia, which suggests that players using a turn to trash the original Hovel were probably correct. 
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Marcory

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #18 on: June 29, 2014, 10:33:38 pm »
+1

My advice:  never buy Hovel.

Edge case with Shelters in the Supply and no other cards that trash from your hand: You are Possessing your opponent, but you have Outpost and Watchtower in your own hand. The Possessed hand only has one copper and one Quarry for money, but it has 2 buys. Buy and topdeck Market Square and Hovel. When you play your Outpost turn, you'll almost certainly be able to buy a Victory card (if only Overgrown Estate) to trash your Hovel and gain a Gold. 
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #19 on: June 29, 2014, 10:35:11 pm »
+4

My advice:  never buy Hovel.

Edge case with Shelters in the Supply and no other cards that trash from your hand: You are Possessing your opponent, but you have Outpost and Watchtower in your own hand. The Possessed hand only has one copper and one Quarry for money, but it has 2 buys. Buy and topdeck Market Square and Hovel. When you play your Outpost turn, you'll almost certainly be able to buy a Victory card (if only Overgrown Estate) to trash your Hovel and gain a Gold.

Yes. That is quite the edge case seeing that Shelters are in the supply  :o
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Gherald

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2014, 12:01:57 am »
+1

Not as good with Madman or Spoils around, then you may as well use your 2 buys to topdeck a pair for $0
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #21 on: June 30, 2014, 09:54:47 am »
0

My advice:  never buy Hovel.

Well sure, but you need to know how to deal with one in case you are Ambassadored one.
Masqueraded, surely?

You can't gain a Hovel from the supply. Or maybe that's the joke? My sarcasm detector is off sometimes.
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Kirian

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #22 on: June 30, 2014, 10:01:28 am »
0

My advice:  never buy Hovel.

Well sure, but you need to know how to deal with one in case you are Ambassadored one.
Masqueraded, surely?

You can't gain a Hovel from the supply. Or maybe that's the joke? My sarcasm detector is off sometimes.

Yeah, huge sarcasm there.
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enfynet

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #23 on: June 30, 2014, 10:06:05 am »
0

No worries. My reply was sarcastic and managed to start a debate.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #24 on: June 30, 2014, 10:33:02 am »
0

No worries. My reply was sarcastic and managed to start a debate.

I'm glad it was, I upvoted it because I thought so, and was feeling stupid after reading all those replies saying that it could very well be the right move.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #25 on: June 30, 2014, 10:37:31 am »
0

No worries. My reply was sarcastic and managed to start a debate.
Without smilies, it's really hard to tell sometimes!  ;D
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #26 on: June 30, 2014, 11:49:08 am »
0

No worries. My reply was sarcastic and managed to start a debate.
Without smilies, it's really hard to tell sometimes!  ;D

And in case there's any doubt, my reply was a joke based on his joke.
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Marcory

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #27 on: June 30, 2014, 11:58:22 am »
0

As was mine; obv you can't buy Hovel, but if you could, it would be in the supply, hence my meta-edge case.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #28 on: June 30, 2014, 12:06:29 pm »
+16

We need to start a Hovel [Serious] thread now...
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Flip5ide

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #29 on: June 30, 2014, 01:54:29 pm »
+1

Am I wrong... for trying' to trash my Hovel for Estate?
Am I wrong... with others sayin' I'm gonna lose the game?
I'm just tryin' to do that stuff that they all doing
Just cause everybody doing what they all do
If one thing I know, these shelters they just blow
I'm trashin' up this home of mine, this Hovel I called home
« Last Edit: June 30, 2014, 05:30:20 pm by Flip5ide »
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #30 on: June 30, 2014, 02:03:30 pm »
0

No worries. My reply was sarcastic and managed to start a debate.

I'm glad it was, I upvoted it because I thought so, and was feeling stupid after reading all those replies saying that it could very well be the right move.

To be honest, I'm not sure why people are claiming it isn't a good idea--it reduces your deck size by one, removes a useless card(and the GH itself can be handy in the right environment, like in the presence of Peddler or Throne Room), and is a better opening than Silver in games where you don't want Silver (which is a lot of them).  Not to say you should feel stupid about it, but Great Hall/trash Hovel is a better opening than it is being given credit here. 
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jomini

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #31 on: June 30, 2014, 04:54:12 pm »
+1



To be honest, I'm not sure why people are claiming it isn't a good idea--it reduces your deck size by one, removes a useless card(and the GH itself can be handy in the right environment, like in the presence of Peddler or Throne Room), and is a better opening than Silver in games where you don't want Silver (which is a lot of them).  Not to say you should feel stupid about it, but Great Hall/trash Hovel is a better opening than it is being given credit here. 

Part of the problem is that 1/3rd of the time your Hovel shows up in the $4 hand; while 3 to 4 isn't a huge gap, there are often a lot of good strong cards you want at $4 - Smithy, Remake, Militia, Young Witch, etc. that make it relatively bad. Secondly, Silver is not automatically bad. If I'm going to want 2 Silvers eventually (e.g. I play to buy Silver/Silver/Gold and run a draw engine to double provinces), I may as well get them now. $9/10 cards is a lower cash setup than $12/11. Particularly if my price points are $6, $7, or $9, I'm better off with two Silvers.

The value of trashing one card is also dependent on how quick I can draw my deck. Say I have Chapel out (so I obviously don't buy it on the first shot), how much, really is trashing one card worth on a $3 hand? I'm going to Chapel the Hovel out in two shuffles or less most of the time; getting something useful longer term (like a Menage or a silver) is likely better.

An instructive comparison might be with Doctor. Killing a net 2 cards is worth $2 (the $3 being the base price for a marginal trasher). Spending $3 for that and 1 VP then seems a bit expensive. Certainly something to do when the cards are setup for it (e.g. Peddler), but not your automatic goto move.
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Flip5ide

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #32 on: June 30, 2014, 05:31:49 pm »
0



To be honest, I'm not sure why people are claiming it isn't a good idea--it reduces your deck size by one, removes a useless card(and the GH itself can be handy in the right environment, like in the presence of Peddler or Throne Room), and is a better opening than Silver in games where you don't want Silver (which is a lot of them).  Not to say you should feel stupid about it, but Great Hall/trash Hovel is a better opening than it is being given credit here. 

Part of the problem is that 1/3rd of the time your Hovel shows up in the $4 hand; while 3 to 4 isn't a huge gap, there are often a lot of good strong cards you want at $4 - Smithy, Remake, Militia, Young Witch, etc. that make it relatively bad. Secondly, Silver is not automatically bad. If I'm going to want 2 Silvers eventually (e.g. I play to buy Silver/Silver/Gold and run a draw engine to double provinces), I may as well get them now. $9/10 cards is a lower cash setup than $12/11. Particularly if my price points are $6, $7, or $9, I'm better off with two Silvers.

The value of trashing one card is also dependent on how quick I can draw my deck. Say I have Chapel out (so I obviously don't buy it on the first shot), how much, really is trashing one card worth on a $3 hand? I'm going to Chapel the Hovel out in two shuffles or less most of the time; getting something useful longer term (like a Menage or a silver) is likely better.

An instructive comparison might be with Doctor. Killing a net 2 cards is worth $2 (the $3 being the base price for a marginal trasher). Spending $3 for that and 1 VP then seems a bit expensive. Certainly something to do when the cards are setup for it (e.g. Peddler), but not your automatic goto move.

What do you mean by "marginal trasher?"
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #33 on: June 30, 2014, 06:44:25 pm »
+4

The opportunity cost of not buying a $4 card is a separate case (and rarely worth incurring if there are useful $4 cards to open with.)

In the case of $3 Hovel/GH with no good trashing around, buying a silver instead in terms of deck money density is a lot like buying two coppers and giving up 1 VP.

How often do you want an extra two coppers and -1 VP?  Yeah.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #34 on: July 01, 2014, 12:51:36 am »
0


What do you mean by "marginal trasher?"

Weaker than Remake, Chapel, Steward, etc.

Doctor, without overbuy, suffers from very rapidly diminishing returns. It is a terminal action that doesn't take long until it ends up trashing single coppers, if you are lucky. When you first play it (assuming you have 12 cards), you kill on something around 2 cards (depending on the information you have and the shuffle luck). It is nice in that these cards don't come out of your hand (great you can buy something pricier than with Steward), but you quickly transition to killing one or fewer cards. Also bad, the cards you most want to trash in the early game - the estates are the ones Doctor has the hardest time efficiently trashing.

This is not to say that Doctor is a bad buy without overbuy, but I find if I want Doctor, I often want to pay 4; particularly if I can open 4 and use him again on T3 with a short shuffle.

Gherald:  Depends on how much you want the Silver. If Altar is out, you are generally better increasing the variance (lower odds of hitting $5, higher odds of hitting $6) and grabbing a Silver, particularly if you have terminal draw like Oracle or Smithy already in the mix. Likewise, Forge and Grand market make pretty good cases for getting the silver going sooner.

I mean let's consider what your $4 might be. Dead draw. In which case, your Ghall is 1/3rd or 1/4th dead. Envoy is particularly harsh on this for the obvious reason.

Strong trashing - Chapel, Masq, etc. Chapel is the obvious one here. If I want to keep the Necropolis, then I might be able to kill everything but the GHall in two chapel plays, but that requires really lucky draws. Most likely I have 3 or 4 plays of Chapel to kill everything regardless of getting Ghall. Silver may well get you going faster if the trashing works.

Attacks. If Militia is out, having a junk Hovel is less damaging, I have decent odds of that being one of the cards I'd be discarding regardless. Getting to $5 when you are discarding or getting junked typically makes Silver more valuable.

Gainers. Either I'm building to an engine faster (e.g. using Iw to set up village/smithy) or looking at an alt-VP rush/slog typically. If the former, then typically my components can overcome the card count and GHall goes back to the dead card problem. If I'm going for alt-VP, those are often exactly the times you want coppers and you will pitch the Hovel soon anyways.


Ghall is not a bad move, but it really depends on what sort of money distribution you want in the early game.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #35 on: July 01, 2014, 10:34:29 pm »
0

I often do that on 5/2 opening if there's no +buy and no cursing attack. 1VP may decide the game if province split 4-4. But on the other cases I don't.

P.S. i do not know if my play is right or not.  :P
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #36 on: July 02, 2014, 01:18:49 am »
0

That's my rule of thumb as well -- if it looks like a 4 province game with no +buy or other good way to break a tie, I'll buy an estate with $2

Occasionally when there are is no worthwhile $5 and the choice is something with silver's level of usefulness, I'll even get an early duchy
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #37 on: July 02, 2014, 10:45:30 am »
0

That's my rule of thumb as well -- if it looks like a 4 province game with no +buy or other good way to break a tie, I'll buy an estate with $2

Occasionally when there are is no worthwhile $5 and the choice is something with silver's level of usefulness, I'll even get an early duchy

I often do that on 5/2 opening if there's no +buy and no cursing attack. 1VP may decide the game if province split 4-4. But on the other cases I don't.

P.S. i do not know if my play is right or not.  :P

What are your guys' pro ratings? I'm pretty sure there's no situation where an early Duchy is desirable over even just buying a silver. Just my thoughts.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #38 on: July 02, 2014, 11:02:02 am »
0

That's my rule of thumb as well -- if it looks like a 4 province game with no +buy or other good way to break a tie, I'll buy an estate with $2

Occasionally when there are is no worthwhile $5 and the choice is something with silver's level of usefulness, I'll even get an early duchy

I often do that on 5/2 opening if there's no +buy and no cursing attack. 1VP may decide the game if province split 4-4. But on the other cases I don't.

P.S. i do not know if my play is right or not.  :P

What are your guys' pro ratings? I'm pretty sure there's no situation where an early Duchy is desirable over even just buying a silver. Just my thoughts.

hard to find Pro Ratings, just look at their leaderboard positions:
http://gokologs.drunkensailor.org/leaderboard/

Sure there is.  What if you just don't need the Silver, or in other words, increasing the number of cards in your deck by adding a mediocre one is a bad idea?  In that case, replacing Hovel with Duchy is 3 points without increasing the size of the deck whereas purchasing Silver is a wasted buy.  Now, that said, the cases where there is not a good $5 Kingdom card available are somewhat uncommon, but they can happen.  Plus, sometimes it's better to hold off on the Hovel to replace it with a Province anyway.  Silver is only $2 and it's taking up a slot that could be something else, remember.  Sometimes that makes a difference.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #39 on: July 02, 2014, 11:23:12 am »
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Pretty rare to buy and early duchy to discard a Hovel, but apart from that I thought he meant on the opening split. But still.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #40 on: July 02, 2014, 11:39:30 am »
0

That's my rule of thumb as well -- if it looks like a 4 province game with no +buy or other good way to break a tie, I'll buy an estate with $2

Occasionally when there are is no worthwhile $5 and the choice is something with silver's level of usefulness, I'll even get an early duchy

I often do that on 5/2 opening if there's no +buy and no cursing attack. 1VP may decide the game if province split 4-4. But on the other cases I don't.

P.S. i do not know if my play is right or not.  :P

What are your guys' pro ratings? I'm pretty sure there's no situation where an early Duchy is desirable over even just buying a silver. Just my thoughts.

hard to find Pro Ratings, just look at their leaderboard positions:
http://gokologs.drunkensailor.org/leaderboard/

Sure there is.  What if you just don't need the Silver, or in other words, increasing the number of cards in your deck by adding a mediocre one is a bad idea?  In that case, replacing Hovel with Duchy is 3 points without increasing the size of the deck whereas purchasing Silver is a wasted buy.  Now, that said, the cases where there is not a good $5 Kingdom card available are somewhat uncommon, but they can happen.  Plus, sometimes it's better to hold off on the Hovel to replace it with a Province anyway.  Silver is only $2 and it's taking up a slot that could be something else, remember.  Sometimes that makes a difference.

There might be edge case on this, but extremely rare IMO.
The opportunity cost for the Duchy can be very high compared to strong attacks, $5 engine components...
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #41 on: July 02, 2014, 11:45:42 am »
+1

Yes, I do agree with that, but if the 3 points win you the game, it was probably the right call.  Gherald isn't saying he trashes the Hovel just because he can; he does it knowing the 3 points could make the difference at the right time, which is a proper way to look at Hovel.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #42 on: July 02, 2014, 12:20:40 pm »
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Reasonable, but any example games? Or this is viable thing on Big Money Ultimate in poor kingdom haha
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #43 on: July 02, 2014, 05:34:10 pm »
0

Reasonable, but any example games? Or this is viable thing on Big Money Ultimate in poor kingdom haha

What's the difference between BMU and BM? Smithy?
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #44 on: July 02, 2014, 05:52:03 pm »
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Reasonable, but any example games? Or this is viable thing on Big Money Ultimate in poor kingdom haha

What's the difference between BMU and BM? Smithy?

BMU is the optimized strategy that buys only basic treasures and victory cards. BM is any strategy that mainly buys treasures and victory cards (definitions vary depending on who you ask).
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #45 on: July 02, 2014, 06:28:16 pm »
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What's the difference between BMU and BM? Smithy?

BMU is the optimized strategy that buys only basic treasures and victory cards. BM is any strategy that mainly buys treasures and victory cards (definitions vary depending on who you ask).

"optimized" meaning it's a bot.  so BMU is a specific BM strategy.  so, in a way, yes, smithy is the difference. 
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #46 on: July 06, 2014, 05:52:02 pm »
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No worries. My reply was sarcastic and managed to start a debate.

I'm glad it was, I upvoted it because I thought so, and was feeling stupid after reading all those replies saying that it could very well be the right move.

To be honest, I'm not sure why people are claiming it isn't a good idea--it reduces your deck size by one, removes a useless card(and the GH itself can be handy in the right environment, like in the presence of Peddler or Throne Room), and is a better opening than Silver in games where you don't want Silver (which is a lot of them).  Not to say you should feel stupid about it, but Great Hall/trash Hovel is a better opening than it is being given credit here.

Agreed. As Last Footnote said, Donald wrote in the DA Secret History:

Quote
Hovel is the only one that changed. Originally it was an action you could trash by discarding your hand. It turned out that trashing it turn 1-2 usually seemed like the correct play, even if you drew it with four Coppers. So that was no good. Hovel as printed has nice flavor going for it; you move out of your old Hovel and into a nice Duchy.

So it was usually the right move to give up a turn just to trash Hovel; by buying Great Hall on T1/2, you can do this and get a VP to boot. (OTOH, the new Hovel trashes itself as soon as you start greening, the old Hovel would have hung around till the end without another trasher.)

An instructive comparison might be with Doctor. Killing a net 2 cards is worth $2 (the $3 being the base price for a marginal trasher). Spending $3 for that and 1 VP then seems a bit expensive.

Without using overpay, Doctor is very weak at $3 (or even $2), usually far weaker even than Lookout. Killing a net 2 cards for $2 (or even more cards for $1 each?) would be extremely strong on T1/2 if you didn't have to pay another $3 for Doctor on the same turn...
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #47 on: July 06, 2014, 06:41:11 pm »
0

Quote
Without using overpay, Doctor is very weak at $3 (or even $2), usually far weaker even than Lookout.
this isn't true, and lookout is a weird thing to compare it too because lookout isn't very weak. doctor is swingy, but it will still catch more than one card on average, so it will kill stuff faster than lookout does, but lookout prepares your next turn, and  it's non terminal.

3$ doctor is usually worse than chapel, usually a lot better than trade route. it's usually better than loan too.

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #48 on: July 07, 2014, 12:49:11 am »
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If wasting an early turn to trash old Hovel was worth it, doesn't that imply that wasting an early turn on Trade Route, which will trash more than 1 card? But Trade Route is considered a weak opening isn't it?
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #49 on: July 07, 2014, 12:56:33 am »
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If wasting an early turn to trash old Hovel was worth it, doesn't that imply that wasting an early turn on Trade Route, which will trash more than 1 card? But Trade Route is considered a weak opening isn't it?
Will eventually trash more than 1 card, but for the time being, it just increases your deck size by 1, and you have to waste more than one turn trashing those cards. And it's still a strong opening whenever it's the only trashing and trashing is essential.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #50 on: July 07, 2014, 01:51:46 am »
+3

If wasting an early turn to trash old Hovel was worth it, doesn't that imply that wasting an early turn on Trade Route, which will trash more than 1 card? But Trade Route is considered a weak opening isn't it?

If you trash Hovel with a GH opening, it's an effective -1 card from the deck because GH is a cantrip. If you open Trade Route to trash, it's an effective +1 card to the deck until it trashes the first card.

A hand with a GH is effectively no different than a hand with 5 cards. A hand with Trade Route is a 3-card hand if you choose to trash.

(Edge cases, etc.)
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #51 on: July 07, 2014, 03:42:05 am »
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Great Hall, Conspirator could be a decent opening, you lose 1 blocker, get a cantrip and even have Necropolis around.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #52 on: July 07, 2014, 08:26:17 am »
0

Quote
Without using overpay, Doctor is very weak at $3 (or even $2), usually far weaker even than Lookout.
this isn't true, and lookout is a weird thing to compare it too because lookout isn't very weak. doctor is swingy, but it will still catch more than one card on average, so it will kill stuff faster than lookout does, but lookout prepares your next turn, and  it's non terminal.

3$ doctor is usually worse than chapel, usually a lot better than trade route. it's usually better than loan too.

Maybe I'm undervaluing $3 Doctor. But Doctor will usually only trash >1 card if you name Copper, and trashing Copper is much weaker than trashing Estates in the early game. And Doctor's trashing rapidly decreases to < 1 card per play, while Lookout and Trade Route are viable trashers for longer (especially with Ruins or Curses around). The extra Action (+sifting) or $ are also a big plus, which Doctor doesn't have. Usually I don't want to waste an action just to trash a single Copper, so Doctor becomes a dead card whenever it collides with other terminals in the early game.
(I compared it to Lookout because it has a reputation to be weak, but you're right that Lookout is not really weak. Still, I don't think I'd ever buy $3 Doctor over Lookout.)
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #53 on: July 07, 2014, 10:48:33 am »
+1

If wasting an early turn to trash old Hovel was worth it, doesn't that imply that wasting an early turn on Trade Route, which will trash more than 1 card? But Trade Route is considered a weak opening isn't it?
I think the thing about hovel is what i posted earlier: if you trash it in t1/2 and buy a silver/terminal silver in t1/2, you have a guarantee to hit 5$ on turn 3/4. you don't get that with trade route. with trade route/silver (or curse/silver), you have just a 49.52% chance to hit 5$ (that's assuming that you don't play it when it keeps you from hitting 5$ (SCCCT), i just ran the simulation with an extra estate)

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #54 on: July 07, 2014, 01:12:27 pm »
+1

Maybe I'm undervaluing $3 Doctor. But Doctor will usually only trash >1 card if you know what to name,
FTFY
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #55 on: July 07, 2014, 01:26:24 pm »
+2

dunno, it might still trash 3 coppers the first time you use it. it's not that unlikely. I think the thing with doctor, more than with other cards, is that people have very different ideas about its powerlevel, because it's just so swingy. you might have had a couple of bad games with it, and then stopped buying it for 3$, thus underestimating it now.

but it's not great for 3$. I usually don't like paying 4$ for doctor when opening 3/4$, because you make doctor miss the reshuffle and playing it early is so important with this card, but when there's lookout i might open lookout/doctor for 4$. both of these cards don't trash from your hand, so you should still be able to have enough buying power left to get silvers before your economy is trashed.

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #56 on: July 08, 2014, 08:06:33 am »
0

The problem I have with Doctor is that even if I do get some good initial trashing from it, the last cards I want to trash are in my hand and not in my deck, so it's worse than Chapel in this regard.

With Chapel, you can trash down very quickly and rebuild your deck very quickly (because you have no bad cards remaining).
With Doctor, both the trashing down and building up is a bit slower, since you can't trash down completely.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #57 on: September 18, 2014, 05:10:08 am »
0

A hand with a GH is effectively no different than a hand with 5 cards. A hand with Trade Route is a 3-card hand if you choose to trash.

(Edge cases, etc.)

However I would argue that with cards like Lookout and Cartographer, GH is preferable, while in a game with Militia, GH is not.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #58 on: September 18, 2014, 06:33:23 pm »
+1

 
If wasting an early turn to trash old Hovel was worth it, doesn't that imply that wasting an early turn on Trade Route, which will trash more than 1 card? But Trade Route is considered a weak opening isn't it?

If you trash Hovel with a GH opening, it's an effective -1 card from the deck because GH is a cantrip. If you open Trade Route to trash, it's an effective +1 card to the deck until it trashes the first card.

A hand with a GH is effectively no different than a hand with 5 cards. A hand with Trade Route is a 3-card hand if you choose to trash.

(Edge cases, etc.)

Remember, you can still draw your great hall dead. Not exactly an edge case. Depends on the type of deck you build. So if I am going for a smithy-like deck that isn't likely going to be drawing everything, I almost always hold off on trashing the hovel until later.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #59 on: September 18, 2014, 06:58:18 pm »
0

However I would argue that with cards like Lookout and Cartographer, GH is preferable, while in a game with Militia, GH is not.
Why would GH be preferable with Cartographer? You play Cartographer, it shows you 4 Great Halls, sounds like a nombo to me.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #60 on: September 18, 2014, 07:00:14 pm »
+3

However I would argue that with cards like Lookout and Cartographer, GH is preferable, while in a game with Militia, GH is not.
Why would GH be preferable with Cartographer? You play Cartographer, it shows you 4 Great Halls, sounds like a nombo to me.

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #61 on: September 18, 2014, 07:28:03 pm »
+2

However I would argue that with cards like Lookout and Cartographer, GH is preferable, while in a game with Militia, GH is not.
Why would GH be preferable with Cartographer? You play Cartographer, it shows you 4 Great Halls, sounds like a nombo to me.

If you have a Cartographer in hand, then having a Great Hall in hand is better than having whatever card you would have drawn instead of the Great Hall: it means you can choose from among four cards what to draw with your Great Hall. For a more concrete example: Cartographer and four Coppers with a Copper on top is a dead turn; but Cartographer, GH, and three Coppers can still kick off, even with two Coppers on top (that's the same five Coppers), because Cartographer can rearrange the deck and drop the excess Copper so you didn't have to draw it.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #62 on: September 27, 2014, 05:52:39 am »
+1

So are we approaching consensus that a 5/2 estate is going to negatively affect you? Might as well trash 2 Estates with all 3 and a chapel in hand if you disagree. You know, for the +1 VP.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #63 on: September 27, 2014, 07:12:07 am »
+1

So are we approaching consensus that a 5/2 estate is going to negatively affect you? Might as well trash 2 Estates with all 3 and a chapel in hand if you disagree. You know, for the +1 VP.

Definitely -- I think that's been consensus for a long time (It's sort of like throning a nobles when you don't have any actions in hand and taking the actions before the cards -- if you think it's right, you should think harder. Admittedly, it's a little vaguer than that example -- it's more like drawing a chapel with an estate around turn 8 than around turn 4.)

EDIT: I found the old thread where this was debated at end --
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=4508.0
There are some important edge cases that show up in that thread (for instance, apprentice/estate doesn't seem like a terrible opening on a hovel board) but the general idea is clear.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2014, 07:37:10 am by ehunt »
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #64 on: September 30, 2014, 06:08:45 pm »
0

In addition to other TfB's like Bishop -- Ironmonger and Crossroads are a couple other cards that like buying an Estate with $2+hovel.  If those are for sure going to be in your deck, you should buy the estate.

Another situation that likes the estate is a game with no +buy nor VP tokens, where that 1 VP estate can be the tiebreaker.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #65 on: September 30, 2014, 06:13:14 pm »
0

Another situation that likes the estate is a game with no +buy nor VP tokens, where that 1 VP estate can be the tiebreaker.

Certainly that can happen, but in games like that (which sounds largely like BM+X), it can often help just as much to keep the Hovel, so that an early Province doesn't take up space in your deck. You lose the 1VP, but you get a better shot at continuing to buy the big cards later. That extra Estate can be the key difference between $7 and $8, once you've started greening.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #66 on: September 30, 2014, 07:01:45 pm »
0

I don't think it can "often" help just as much.  At least not "often" enough for not buying the estate to be the correct decision.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #67 on: September 30, 2014, 07:08:42 pm »
+2

I don't think it can "often" help just as much.  At least not "often" enough for not buying the estate to be the correct decision.

In such a game, would you accept a free trash of an Estate in the mid game when you buy your first Province?  I think I would most of the time.  Or on the other hand, would you want to gain a free Estate?  I probably would not.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #68 on: September 30, 2014, 08:49:35 pm »
0

That assumes Hovel would be in hand when you gain the first province

I'll take the free estate and its tiebreaking benefit over the chance of that both:

(1) happening and (2) making the difference on getting $8 enough for me to win the province split 5-3 or not lose it 3-5
« Last Edit: September 30, 2014, 08:54:46 pm by Gherald »
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #69 on: September 30, 2014, 09:14:33 pm »
0

It's not too common in BM games to get a province with hovel in hand, especially not for the first one. If you have hovel in hand, chances are a lot less that you have a province hand.
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Re: Hovel
« Reply #70 on: September 30, 2014, 09:24:28 pm »
0

Yes, but you could still be in greening mode and have enough in hand for a Duchy.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #71 on: September 30, 2014, 09:32:17 pm »
+1

It's not too common in BM games to get a province with hovel in hand, especially not for the first one. If you have hovel in hand, chances are a lot less that you have a province hand.

I don't think it's that uncommon.  There's also Duchy or alt VP buying as well.

It really probably doesn't matter most of the time, but I'd expect not having the extra Estate to be better most of the time.  Think about when you start actually buying Estates in a BM strategy.  Very late, if at all.  Trashing Hovel for Estate is like choosing to gain an extra Estate in the mid-game.  When you have a spare +Buy and $2, do you pick up extra Estates that early?



Somebody should just simulate it...
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liopoil

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #72 on: September 30, 2014, 09:36:10 pm »
+1

If it's by the time you're buying duchies, you're would have seen that hovel at most one more time.
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eHalcyon

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #73 on: September 30, 2014, 10:03:49 pm »
0

If it's by the time you're buying duchies, you're would have seen that hovel at most one more time.

Alternatively, you could skip the extra Estate and get a Duchy a little earlier.  And there's still the possibility of trashing it to a Province, which is not uncommon IMO.  Even if you would have only seen that Hovel one more time, that one time could mean the difference between a Province/Duchy or not.
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Holger

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Re: Hovel
« Reply #74 on: October 01, 2014, 06:38:46 am »
0

If it's by the time you're buying duchies, you're would have seen that hovel at most one more time.

Alternatively, you could skip the extra Estate and get a Duchy a little earlier.  And there's still the possibility of trashing it to a Province, which is not uncommon IMO.  Even if you would have only seen that Hovel one more time, that one time could mean the difference between a Province/Duchy or not.

Yes, usually you expect to get at least ~$1.5 per card in the late game, which on average gives you a little more than 1 VP. I would usually buy a Duchy with Hovel in hand from about the time I start buying Provinces, and an Estate only when I may not draw it again. But it seems to be a surprisingly narrow decision, unless there's hybrid victory cards around.
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