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Author Topic: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?  (Read 10811 times)

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amalloy

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Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« on: June 22, 2014, 08:21:12 pm »
+1

I just played a game on this kingdom:



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Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds
It looks overall pretty weak: not a very strong engine that I could see, so I started looking for big money enablers; there doesn't even seem to be one of those! Treasure Map looked like the closest, and...Sage helps line it up? Maybe? My opponent was also puzzled by this board, but we both decided to "try something" and opened Sage/TM. It all seemed to come together really fast for both of us: we had identical decks at the time our Maps collided, which was on turn 6.

So, I guess my question is: is Sage/TM a decent combo at all, that I should consider playing whenever I see it? Or is it pretty mediocre, only suitable as a last-ditch effort on an otherwise weak board like this one?
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luser

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2014, 09:57:42 pm »
0

It is a sort of strategy that you should try versus stef. If you hit 4 on second reshuffle then it is great and by adding sages you could force collision on turn 6-7. But if you do not hit that you are in trouble, adding more sages will make matters only worse as on second shuffle you have 7 coppers and 5 dead cards. If you add silver then you cannot rely on sages finding second map so you are in trouble.

I would definitely do that on baker boards.
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Robz888

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2014, 10:03:36 pm »
+3

No.
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GeoLib

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2014, 12:39:52 am »
+2

Wouldn't BM+NB wreak havoc on that deck?
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Davio

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2014, 12:40:26 am »
0

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.
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ipofanes

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #5 on: June 23, 2014, 05:36:22 am »
0

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.

In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.

To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.
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Davio

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #6 on: June 23, 2014, 07:35:16 am »
0

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.

In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.

To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.
Okay, I can see that, still it seems a bigger gambit than I would usually take.
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silverspawn

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #7 on: June 23, 2014, 08:20:18 am »
0

well i tried it once. i never got to 4$ after turn one, eventually i resigned. dunno how the odds are here, that's probably a case for simulation

amalloy

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #8 on: June 23, 2014, 03:55:28 pm »
0

You could encounter situations where Sage is a dead card because you already have 2 TMs in your deck and 1 Sage in hand.

In which case you don't play Sage and look forward to draw both TMs later, which has just become more probable.

To me it seems like a "what if 3rd TM cost $3" situation.

And indeed, that happened to me on turn 4. I declined to play the Sage, of course, drew my guaranteed Treasure Map next turn, and had three chances (since I reshuffled after drawing two cards) to hit a Sage or second TM in that hand, which was 3 of my 12 cards. That seems like pretty decent odds, but when I do the math it only comes out to 22%.

However, if I do miss, I'm guaranteed to collide sometime before the next shuffle: I have three cards between TM+Sage left in my deck, and exactly ten cards: there's guaranteed to be a hand with two of them, as long as I don't play Sage when I draw it alone. So actually given that I managed to afford my second Treasure Map at all (a serious concern), I was guaranteed a collision pretty quickly. Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?
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JW

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #9 on: June 23, 2014, 06:36:16 pm »
0

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

Derivation: in this situation, the only sets of hands on which you won't hit $4 on the second shuffle are $3/$3, $3/$2, and $2/$3. So we can find the probability of these sets, and the chance you hit $4 is 1- [the sum of these probabilities].

Each of these can be derived with combinations. For example, for $3/$3: the chance to get $3 on your first hand is C(7,3)*C(5,2)/C(12,5). Conditional on having exactly $3 on being your first hand, the chance to get $3 on the second hand is C(4,3)*C(3,2)/C(7,5).   

The first terms in those expressions (e.g., C(7,3)) are based on the ways to order the Coppers, the second terms (e.g., C(5,2)) are based on the junk cards, and the third term (e.g., C(12,5)) is based on the number of ways to choose each hand. Multiply these two probabilities together and the chance to get $3/$3= 25/99.

Similarly, the chance of $3/$2= 25/198, and the chance of $2/$3 is 25/198. The chance of one of these sets is 50/99. So the chance you hit at least $4 is 1- 50/99, or 49/99.
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luser

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #10 on: June 23, 2014, 07:14:40 pm »
0

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.
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Awaclus

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2014, 07:18:24 pm »
0

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

Derivation: in this situation, the only sets of hands on which you won't hit $4 on the second shuffle are $3/$3, $3/$2, and $2/$3. So we can find the probability of these sets, and the chance you hit $4 is 1- [the sum of these probabilities].

Each of these can be derived with combinations. For example, for $3/$3: the chance to get $3 on your first hand is C(7,3)*C(5,2)/C(12,5). Conditional on having exactly $3 on being your first hand, the chance to get $3 on the second hand is C(4,3)*C(3,2)/C(7,5).   

The first terms in those expressions (e.g., C(7,3)) are based on the ways to order the Coppers, the second terms (e.g., C(5,2)) are based on the junk cards, and the third term (e.g., C(12,5)) is based on the number of ways to choose each hand. Multiply these two probabilities together and the chance to get $3/$3= 25/99.

Similarly, the chance of $3/$2= 25/198, and the chance of $2/$3 is 25/198. The chance of one of these sets is 50/99. So the chance you hit at least $4 is 1- 50/99, or 49/99.
Are you taking into account the fact that Sage can remove the Treasure Map from your draw pile and/or make the reshuffle happen earlier?
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SCSN

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2014, 07:22:10 pm »
+1

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.

You're tacitly assuming that connecting them early means you'll automatically win; I'm pretty sure that on most boards opening double TM + double Sage is losing even if you were guaranteed to connect them on T5.
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JW

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2014, 07:24:18 pm »
0

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.
Are you taking into account the fact that Sage can remove the Treasure Map from your draw pile?

No, that's a good point. I was assuming two "completely dead" cards. To take that Sage can remove Treasure Map from your draw pile into account you also need a rule for what to do on sub-$4 hands (buy nothing, I assume). 

In this case you wouldn't want to calculate the chance to get $4 on the "second shuffle"; you'd want the chance to buy a second Treasure Map on either turn 3 or turn 4 (since you may reshuffle after turn 3).

Edit: It would be tedious to take Sage into account in an exact calculation, but I approximated it on the assumption that you always play Sage on turn 2 when you have <=$3 (unless you have Treasure Map and/or all three Estates in hand). I also assumed that you buy nothing on <=$3. I'd guess that the odds to buy Treasure Map on either turn 3 or turn 4 go up to about 52-54% taking this into account.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2014, 08:38:52 pm by JW »
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luser

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2014, 07:22:25 am »
0

Anyone know how likely it is to hit $4 on the second shuffle, given that you've added two completely dead cards in the first shuffle?

I get about 49.5% (49/99). Not good odds.

No, that are excellent odds, I thought they will be smaller. Even if you play with equally skilled opponent then as second player you are less likely to win due first player advantage. Basically every time you play versus better opponent using a sage/treasure map will make you more likely.

You're tacitly assuming that connecting them early means you'll automatically win; I'm pretty sure that on most boards opening double TM + double Sage is losing even if you were guaranteed to connect them on T5.

You know that you should not make bold propositions on forums. Here are ten randomly generated boards with treasure map/sage, from following log search.
http://gokologs.drunkensailor.org/logsearch?p1name=&p1score=any&p2name=&startdate=08%2F05%2F2012&enddate=06%2F24%2F2014&supply=sage%2C+treasure+map&nonsupply=&rating=pro%2B&pcount=2&colony=any&bot=false&shelters=any&guest=false&minturns=&maxturns=&quit=false&resign=any&submitted=true&offset=0

Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute
Vineyard, Vagrant, Sage, Urchin, Island, Moneylender, Rats, Treasure Map, Rabble, Harem
Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank
Pawn, Fishing Village, Menagerie, Sage, Woodcutter, JackOfAllTrades, Treasure Map, Counterfeit, Mystic, Rabble
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds
Cellar, Loan, Sage, Bishop, Talisman, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Counting House, Embassy, Mystic
Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar
Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler
Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal
Duchess, Pearl Diver, Chancellor, Sage, Bridge, Horse Traders, Treasure Map, Bazaar, Counterfeit, Peddler

I would happily play these kingdom with you when you play 4 turns then pass until I connect treasure maps to simulate turn 5 collision and see how many I will win.
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SCSN

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2014, 09:51:02 am »
+5

You know that you should not make bold propositions on forums.

If you think that was bold you should read more of my posts.

I'd be happy to play those boards. PM me with times you are available.
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amalloy

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2014, 12:19:44 pm »
0

On at least some of those boards a guaranteed T5 collison doesn't look nearly good enough: SCSN will crush you anyway by playing the better strategy. For example I'm pretty sure Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler is way too strong to play TM/Sage.

I'd love to see a stream of some of these games, though, to find out what SCSN can do with boards like the one in my OP, or the first in your list, both of which look very weak to me.
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-Stef-

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #17 on: June 25, 2014, 07:04:40 am »
+6

On at least some of those boards a guaranteed T5 collison doesn't look nearly good enough: SCSN will crush you anyway by playing the better strategy. For example I'm pretty sure Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler is way too strong to play TM/Sage.

I'd love to see a stream of some of these games, though, to find out what SCSN can do with boards like the one in my OP, or the first in your list, both of which look very weak to me.

kingdomSCSNs predicted win%
Poor House, Crossroads, Sage, Baron, Bureaucrat, Treasure Map, Worker's Village, Festival, Mandarin, Tribute10%
Vineyard, Vagrant, Sage, Urchin, Island, Moneylender, Rats, Treasure Map, Rabble, Harem 50%
Sage, Urchin, Armory, Baron, Bridge, Trader, Treasure Map, City, Knights, Bank95%
Pawn, Fishing Village, Menagerie, Sage, Woodcutter, JackOfAllTrades, Treasure Map, Counterfeit, Mystic, Rabble98%
Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds90%
Cellar, Loan, Sage, Bishop, Talisman, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Counting House, Embassy, Mystic30%
Sage, Steward, Quarry, Rats, Taxman, Trader, Treasure Map, Bandit Camp, Festival, Altar70%
Market Square, Menagerie, Sage, Bishop, Remake, Treasure Map, Inn, Royal Seal, Vault, Peddler98%
Duchess, Haven, Vagrant, Sage, Tunnel, Warehouse, Feast, Treasure Map, Catacombs, Royal Seal40%
Duchess, Pearl Diver, Chancellor, Sage, Bridge, Horse Traders, Treasure Map, Bazaar, Counterfeit, Peddler30%
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JW

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2014, 11:38:09 am »
0

Stef, are you assuming Provinces/Estates? Seems like Colonies would weaken the treasure map strategy substantially on average when they show up, and Shelters would weaken it slightly.

In the second game, what do you see as the strategy for SCSN? There doesn't seem to be any support for Vineyards. Triple Urchin into treasure maps?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2014, 11:47:00 am »
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Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.
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markusin

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #20 on: June 25, 2014, 12:18:18 pm »
+1

Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.
We already made that thread.
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amalloy

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2014, 12:56:51 pm »
0

There doesn't seem to be any support for Vineyards.

Rats?
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amalloy

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2014, 02:31:23 pm »
0

Sage, Wishing Well, Farming Village, Navigator, Noble Brigand, Treasure Map, Apprentice, Bazaar, Contraband, Fairgrounds 90%

Wow! I thought this was a weak board - what did I miss that has a 90% win rate against a T5 Treasure Map collision? Noble Brigand + money seems good against TM, but if you open NB and your opponent does something else it seems like you're in trouble. Maybe some kind of Fairgrounds thing? They can be worth 6 if you get everything but TM and Curse, and it will be hard for a TM player to pile Provinces alone. I guess the key must be Noble Brigand, to take away everything good your opponent has gotten. I did want to buy one of those during my game on this board, but never had a good opportunity. There was one turn where my opponent hit $5 and I was praying he didn't notice the NB opportunity. As it turned out, my next two cards were both Gold, so I'm glad he didn't!
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Witherweaver

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2014, 02:36:00 pm »
0

Sage has a more noble calling and you should not concern him with the pursuit of treasure.
We already made that thread.

But they didn't explicitly reference strategy!
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silverspawn

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Re: Is Sage + Treasure Map a thing?
« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2014, 02:36:57 pm »
0

are you allowed to get apprentice as the TM player?
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