When cycling is not good
Cycling has two meanings:
- discard cards from your deck (like Cartographer and Spy);
- draw and discard cards from your hand (like Warehouse and Minion).
We've all been told that cycling is good. However, in this article I want to argue that cycling is definitely now always good, and sometimes very bad. I definitely don't want to argue that cellar and warehouse are bad: they provide "good cycling." However, people have been defending Advisor for "providing cycling" or alleviating mucking attacks (Spy, Fortune Teller, ...) since they provide cycling, and this is wrong. These cards provide "bad cycling," and this will hurt you, not help you.
So let's distinguish between three types of cycling, good cycling, neutral cycling and bad cycling (I'm not very good with making up original names).
- Good cycling is cycling when you discard bad cards. This typically happens when you choose which cards to discard or when a card is designed to automatically discard bad cards. Examples include Cartographer, Cellar, Warehouse, the non-attack part of Spy, Farming Village, Sage, Journeyman, Wandering Minstrel, Chancellor, ...
- Neutral cycling is cycling which discards average cards. This often happens when digging. Examples include: Rebuild, Loan, Harvest, Golem, the attack part of Minion, ...
- Bad cycling happens when you discard good cards. This typically (but not always) happens when you're attacked. Examples include: Fortune Teller, Advisor, Envoy, the attack part of Spy, ...
Most examples of cycling are "good cycling," which is why we say that cycling is good. However, this does not mean that the cycling provided in the other two categories are good. Let's discuss the three types in more detail.
Good cycling is good, because by discarding your bad cards you'll see your good cards more often, and your bad cards less often. This is why Farming Village is better than village, Cellar is better than Ruined Village and Sage is better than Pearl Diver. We knew this already, so I don't have much to add here.
Neutral cycling happens when you discard arbitrary cards from your deck. This won't help you at all (but it won't hurt you either). The simplest way to see this: suppose you have 17 cards in your deck + discard at some arbitrary point during the game, and you haven't done any cycling this shuffle (so that the cards in your deck are on average as good as the cards in your discard pile). Now suppose we execute the following effect:
Do this 17 times: discard the top card of your deck.
After you've done this, you have the same the same number of cards in your deck as you initially had. So this effect hasn't done anything (sure, the cards in your deck are different, but are as good on average). You won't see your good cards more often or your bad cards less often. This means that if you execute the effect "discard the top card of your deck" once, it will - on average - also neither hurt nor help you. This is also the case with the examples provided above (*).
I want to spend a few more words on Chancellor. Chancellor provides good cycling, because you have the choice to discard your deck: you can discard your deck when you've seen more good cards than expected and leave it on your deck when you've seen fewer. If chancellor forced you to always discard your deck, I'd put it under "Neutral cycling". However, even in that case it would still have a very little (usually negligible) positive effect, because you'll see the card you've just bought faster on average, and during the biggest part of the game you're buying good cards. Also, sometimes it can be good because you have cards which do something with your discard pile (like Hermit, Counting House, Inn, or indirectly Stash)
Bad cycling is bad in the same way that good cycling is good. When good cards are discarded from your deck, you'll see them less often, and hence the bad cards more often. Advisor can be described as "opponent discards good card from your deck + Lab." Clearly Advisor is worse than lab, and this disadvantage is NOT alleviated because Advisor cycles. Advisor is worse, BECAUSE it cycles - in a bad way. This is why opening Advisor is typically bad: you'll be less likely to see the other card you've bought on your second reshuffle. Similarly, when an opponent discards a good card from your deck with Scrying Pool you shouldn't think "well, at least I've cycled": what happened was bad because you cycled, again in a bad way.
As final remark: think of Scheme and the on-gain effect of Inn as anti-"bad cycling": you'll put good cards back on your deck. Clearly the effects of Scheme and Inn are good, hence the opposite effect, discarding good cards, are bad.
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(*) Mathematically speaking, Rebuild provides good cycling and Golem provides bad cycling, although for all practical purposes these effects are negligible. To see this: suppose you play rebuild and you have exactly 1 victory card in your deck+discard. Then after playing rebuild, your deck is guaranteed to be without victory cards, hence your deck has better cards on average. The same holds with Golem if you have 2 action cards in deck+discard: after playing Golem your deck is guaranteed to not have action cards. However, these effects become much smaller when you have more victory/action cards in your deck+discard. If you have n victory cards in your deck, every victory card has 1/n chance to get discarded, while all non-victory cards have 1/(n+1) chance to get discarded.