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Author Topic: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Werewolves Win!)  (Read 157025 times)

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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #925 on: May 30, 2014, 10:43:51 am »

the case against Axxle is that he has acted more like a mafia governor than a scum governor -- using his power to save himself and not much else.

He was put in a tough spot though. I can't really say I blame him.

No, it's about what he's (not) done today. If he's town, he saved his own mislynch D1. Cool. What is he making of that life since?
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #926 on: May 30, 2014, 10:44:19 am »

Which isn't to say, "Nothing! Let's lynch him!" it's to say, "Gee, seems more like the kind of fading into the background scum would rather do."
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #927 on: May 30, 2014, 10:53:06 am »

the case against Axxle is that he has acted more like a mafia governor than a scum governor -- using his power to save himself and not much else.

I assume you mean town, but I agree.

C'mon, everyone who was willing to put IG at L-1 - let's do that to BA! Or Axxle! Or WW! (in that order I think)

Yes!  Maybe!  No!

Vote: BA
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #928 on: May 30, 2014, 10:55:26 am »

Vote: BA
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #929 on: May 30, 2014, 10:58:15 am »

L-2! Good work everyone, but don't stop now.
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EgorK

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #930 on: May 30, 2014, 11:30:19 am »

Guys, this is not a probability game, it's a social one.

Exactly. But if people use probabilities they better use them correctly

Town is now "unmarked white balls"? That's just wrong...

So let's imagine experiment: ...

Thanks for the convenient way of thinking of it.  But this doesn't contradict what I said, right?  I said that the chance that an arbitrary one of is is town is (likely) less than 1/2. So if someone is (currently) 50/50, that actually suggests that you should be more inclined to think them town, not scum, if you're basing on probabilities (which you shouldn't).  Axxle and SP shouldn't be thought of as 50/50 given the new information, because they have a greater than 50/50 chance to be scum (according to the thought experiment, the same as any of us). 

My intuition did tell me that if, previously, the 50/50 people were more likely to be scum than an arbitrary one of us, then after the new information that we had, they would still be more likely than an arbitrary one of us.  Though my intuition on probability is always wrong.  But that's still not important to the point I was making.

The point I was making was that BA's reason for suspecting Axxle was very weak, which is relevant because (a) Someone just previously voted for Axxle, and (b) BA was previously called out for sheeping while providing shaky justification.

But some event that was 50% on D1 is not 50% now. That's what I was saying

Back to continuing my reread
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #931 on: May 30, 2014, 11:30:35 am »

Alright guys, I am town and have the ability to kill myself and become like joth if I claim my role. My card is Embargo.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #932 on: May 30, 2014, 11:30:54 am »

In other words, I would be dead, but can't vote.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #933 on: May 30, 2014, 11:32:08 am »

I mean, I meant to say that I can still post but can't vote.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #934 on: May 30, 2014, 11:33:58 am »

Guys, this is not a probability game, it's a social one.

Exactly. But if people use probabilities they better use them correctly

Town is now "unmarked white balls"? That's just wrong...

So let's imagine experiment: ...

Thanks for the convenient way of thinking of it.  But this doesn't contradict what I said, right?  I said that the chance that an arbitrary one of is is town is (likely) less than 1/2. So if someone is (currently) 50/50, that actually suggests that you should be more inclined to think them town, not scum, if you're basing on probabilities (which you shouldn't).  Axxle and SP shouldn't be thought of as 50/50 given the new information, because they have a greater than 50/50 chance to be scum (according to the thought experiment, the same as any of us). 

My intuition did tell me that if, previously, the 50/50 people were more likely to be scum than an arbitrary one of us, then after the new information that we had, they would still be more likely than an arbitrary one of us.  Though my intuition on probability is always wrong.  But that's still not important to the point I was making.

The point I was making was that BA's reason for suspecting Axxle was very weak, which is relevant because (a) Someone just previously voted for Axxle, and (b) BA was previously called out for sheeping while providing shaky justification.

But some event that was 50% on D1 is not 50% now. That's what I was saying

Back to continuing my reread

That's exactly what I was saying :)
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #935 on: May 30, 2014, 11:38:31 am »

Alright guys, I am town and have the ability to kill myself and become like joth if I claim my role. My card is Embargo.

I'm inclined to believe this.  It's verifiable and there is only one.. doesn't seem like a likely fake claim.

Unvote
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #936 on: May 30, 2014, 11:55:06 am »

Alright guys, I am town and have the ability to kill myself and become like joth if I claim my role. My card is Embargo.

I'm inclined to believe this.  It's verifiable and there is only one.. doesn't seem like a likely fake claim.

Unvote

Really? Seems like a plausible fake claim to me. The only way to verify it is for him to use the power, which we obviously aren't going to ask him to do. There's only one of most roles anyway, and scum is more likely to pick something that there's only one of, since picking something with multiple copies will be seen as scummy.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #937 on: May 30, 2014, 12:03:28 pm »

Alright guys, I am town and have the ability to kill myself and become like joth if I claim my role. My card is Embargo.

I'm inclined to believe this.  It's verifiable and there is only one.. doesn't seem like a likely fake claim.

Unvote

Really? Seems like a plausible fake claim to me. The only way to verify it is for him to use the power, which we obviously aren't going to ask him to do. There's only one of most roles anyway, and scum is more likely to pick something that there's only one of, since picking something with multiple copies will be seen as scummy.

I mean, if people really want to doubt me, I would be willing to use my power. Personally, I would rather not die, but at least, I can still participate in the game and give reads even if I don't get a vote.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #938 on: May 30, 2014, 12:11:17 pm »

Alright guys, I am town and have the ability to kill myself and become like joth if I claim my role. My card is Embargo.

I'm inclined to believe this.  It's verifiable and there is only one.. doesn't seem like a likely fake claim.

Unvote

Really? Seems like a plausible fake claim to me. The only way to verify it is for him to use the power, which we obviously aren't going to ask him to do. There's only one of most roles anyway, and scum is more likely to pick something that there's only one of, since picking something with multiple copies will be seen as scummy.

I'm also considering that it's his first game. I understand what you're saying, but I have some trouble disbelieving it here. 

Also, do you think he had this prepared? Possibly, but he didn't know a lot of the roles, has to look up all possible ones on the list then look up each on Mafiascum and check it's plausible, card not discarded, etc.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #939 on: May 30, 2014, 12:30:56 pm »

I mean, he did say earlier this day that he had just spent time looking up roles. I don't think it's safe to assume that he's uninformed.

And BA, if that is your power, you shouldn't use it right now. Another town player losing their vote is the last thing we need.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #940 on: May 30, 2014, 12:39:13 pm »

I mean, he did say earlier this day that he had just spent time looking up roles. I don't think it's safe to assume that he's uninformed.

And BA, if that is your power, you shouldn't use it right now. Another town player losing their vote is the last thing we need.

I agree. My thought process though if that if I were to use my power at least other town would know that I would be giving unbiased reads. But, right now, town is really hurting, so every vote does count.

I do admit that I made some mistakes that have made me look scummy. I am still figuring out the ropes. For instance, when I responded to joth and voted for Ichi, I was agreeing with joth because for one, I know for 100% he is town and I felt his reasons were good, so I offered my reasoning, but in retrospect, I can see how that could have made me look like scum.

Also, some of my comments have come from me earlier not realizing how people's roles worked and whatnot. So, I may have said things that may look stupid like saying it was almost guaranteed Volt was Town.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #941 on: May 30, 2014, 01:03:10 pm »

So, BA, you said first round you discarded King's Court because you thought it would enhance the role form the card that you kept.

Why did you discard Altar this round?

And while I'm asking, to Ichi, why did you discard Moat?
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #942 on: May 30, 2014, 01:13:24 pm »

So, BA, you said first round you discarded King's Court because you thought it would enhance the role form the card that you kept.

Why did you discard Altar this round?

And while I'm asking, to Ichi, why did you discard Moat?

I thought that the roles were sort of a reverse psychology thing. So, I figured that by discarding King's Court, I would end up with a more powerful card. The reason I discarded Altar is for the same reason, out of the two cards, I felt it was more powerful so by discarding it, I felt I would get a more powerful role. Honestly, though, I had no idea what I was doing with the card choices. This was my first game, so I did not know what to expect.

Also, I do have a question, since KC is a one-shot Kingmaker, what does that mean exactly?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #943 on: May 30, 2014, 01:16:03 pm »

So, BA, you said first round you discarded King's Court because you thought it would enhance the role form the card that you kept.

Why did you discard Altar this round?

And while I'm asking, to Ichi, why did you discard Moat?

I thought that the roles were sort of a reverse psychology thing. So, I figured that by discarding King's Court, I would end up with a more powerful card. The reason I discarded Altar is for the same reason, out of the two cards, I felt it was more powerful so by discarding it, I felt I would get a more powerful role. Honestly, though, I had no idea what I was doing with the card choices. This was my first game, so I did not know what to expect.

Also, I do have a question, since KC is a one-shot Kingmaker, what does that mean exactly?

I guess it's something like this: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Kingmaker_(game)
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #944 on: May 30, 2014, 01:18:44 pm »

And while I'm asking, to Ichi, why did you discard Moat?
Well, even though mail-mi said that the relative power of a role wouldn't be related to its power as a card. Since I didn't have much of an idea of what they would do, I picked chapel because I like that card better--and it's a more powerful card in dominion at least.

Keeping moat would have made me a retired werewolf hunter it looks like?
Is that werewolf faction, or like someone who hunts werewolves?

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #945 on: May 30, 2014, 01:24:44 pm »

And while I'm asking, to Ichi, why did you discard Moat?
Well, even though mail-mi said that the relative power of a role wouldn't be related to its power as a card. Since I didn't have much of an idea of what they would do, I picked chapel because I like that card better--and it's a more powerful card in dominion at least.

Keeping moat would have made me a retired werewolf hunter it looks like?
Is that werewolf faction, or like someone who hunts werewolves?

Hoo-ra!  http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Greater_Idea_Mafia/RolePMs
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #946 on: May 30, 2014, 01:52:27 pm »

boy this game is frustrating. for me. at this moment. because I am a stump.

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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #947 on: May 30, 2014, 01:54:04 pm »

You said earlier you wanted to talk about Axxle and Voltaire, but then the BA thing took off.  What did you want to say about them?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #948 on: May 30, 2014, 02:04:46 pm »

I don't know what to make of either of them. More and more I like the Axxle lynch over the Voltaire lynch.

Here is one thing. Axxle is half-cleared. We had two cops. We might have a seer. If we have a seer, then we can get him more cleared. I mean, he could be an alien or a SK.

Are cops in this game just useless? geez.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #949 on: May 30, 2014, 02:05:25 pm »

in fact, we know we have at least one alien.
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